Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. [rod_benson RT @abcqanda: #qanda is back on 7th Feb with Graham Richardson, Amanda Vanstone, David Williamson, Catherine Deveny and Gerard Henderson]

    Arrrrrrrrrrrrrghh

  2. Has anyone found the ACTUAL Essential Report yet……..cos I can’t find it anywhere……not even in the Twittersphere… 😕

  3. [If it turns out that refusal to pay a fraction of a dollar/week to help disadvantaged QLDers is what it takes to turn against a government, then quite frankly this nation deserves Abbott and every horrible thing he does to them.]
    Howard convinced (conned?) people into accepting levies for dairy industry restructuring, gun buybacks and even paying out Ansett staff entitlements that were never a government responsibility in the first place. Surely Labor can get majority support for something far more needed, more equitable, and a legitmate government responsibility? Any scare campaigns about opinion polls in the meantime should be ignored.

  4. Has anyone found the ACTUAL Essential Report yet……..cos I can’t find it anywhere……not even in the Twittersphere… 😕

  5. [More like an abortion gone wrong! ;-)]

    Exactly — he makes used-car-salesmen look angelic.

    His habit of trotting out all the slogan-like lines of the day is so monotonous and noxious, he makes a laughing stock of himself. If it wasn’t for the fact that I told SKY I would never watch their biased news shows again, I’d email and ask who is the nong who keeps getting that man on the show.

  7. [rod_benson RT @abcqanda: #qanda is back on 7th Feb with Graham Richardson, Amanda Vanstone, David Williamson, Catherine Deveny and Gerard Henderson]

    Do they actually want people to watch?

  10. Socrates,

    He also gave us triennial tax cuts.

    I often wonder whether some of the loss of support for the ALP stems from people being peeved they didn’t get their election bribes last time around.

  15. [He also gave us triennial tax cuts.]

    Yes Costello and JWH have taught the Australian electorate to be demanding whingers who expect their entire life to be handed to them on a platter.

    In actual fact, they could easily be accused of having ‘fiddled while Rome burned’ (you can decide what kind of fiddling yourselves) or perhaps ‘Let them eat cake’ … is more appropriate.

    Middle class welfare & tax cuts v criminal neglect of health, education and infrastructure is what I’d call it!

  16. Since you lot haven’t noticed – there is a New Thread which Bilbo says in part:

    [Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening. So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.
    ]
    Bilbo then asked – Is anyone on the East Coast watching Ten News ???

  17. Chill out folks. The only problem is that your expectations were too high.

    This is going to take time and there’s plenty of it. The next election won’t be until late 2013 – long after the levy has been done and dusted.

    And those who are thinking the government might drop it just because there’s a bit of opposition to it need to give themselves a good reality check. Even Dovif and the other trolls who visit here wouldn’t be holding out any hope of that.

  18. [rod_benson RT @abcqanda: #qanda is back on 7th Feb with Graham Richardson, Amanda Vanstone, David Williamson, Catherine Deveny and Gerard Henderson]
    Wot! No Prissy Pyne!

  34. hello my say

    I think it was gus who said wtte that we seem to be in a sort of parallel universe. 🙂
    How are you anyway? I hope all is well.

  38. yes allan i am well.

    i have been doing a couture course, i loved it designing my own patterns
    the course was called the little black dress.

    you know in the audrey hepburn style.

  40. News limited appears to have removed the facebook link from their front page.

    The fake nude Julia was displayed on their front page as one of six facebook friends that show at each time, click on the picture and it took you to a larger picture.

    No way it could have been overlooked. The large breasts were quite prominent and Julia’s face was very recognisable.

    As I mentioned before very classy of news, the same organisation that published the fake Hanson photos, but those did not display the same detail and level of full on nudity of the Julia photo.

    What sort of so called reputable news organisation displays a photo shopped full nude photo of the prime minister on its front page.

  43. when does the chinese new year start
    all the men in china are having haircuts today because its bad luck to have a hair cut
    for one month after the new year.
    it must be a great time for them the barbers to have their annual leave.
    do they have annual leave in china.

    now lets stay with morgan he is much nicer to us.

  47. William has put up the old post again. Some of the gang are there now so perhaps we should join them in case they get out of hand. 🙂

  48. yes Vic, I did enjoy it,
    but do you all know when you are not reading pb you dont know really whats happening out there
    because you cannot watch all channels at once or read all the papers.

    so really life doesnt seem as bad as it looks here.
    re tone.,

    as i said today a street poll taken this week asking tas. people about the levery was

    10/10 yes so does that mean we understand it better or we dont read the papers or what.
    and William does this mean this poll says 100 ;percent of tasm dont mind a bit.

  50. my say

    I agree with you. On this site, we take the time to analysis things more deeply and it seems more dramatic then it probably is.

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