Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. [POLLYTICS | 53 seconds ago
    What an arseclown. And the media industry wonders why they are held in such low regard so often]

  2. It will be interesting to see what the polls say after TA’s disgusting effort of the last 2 days.

    His position is petulant and unsupportable.

  3. jenauthor

    Possum was commenting on Neil Mitchell

    [POLLYTICS | 5 minutes ago
    Finally caught up with the Neil Mitchell interview. Belligerence cuddling up to a piss poor effort at being across the detail. Pathetic]

  4. Those damn Liberalites…. how dare they want to pay less tax
    Those people with 2 kids and a mortgage, how dare they want to pay less tax. If they cannot afford 2 kids, put them up for adoption, if they cannot afford a mortgage, go buy a tent!!
    And those bastard union liberal stooges, how dare they complain that their member will have to pay more tax.
    We selfless laborlites should show them the way, we should demand the government tax us at 70c to the dollar, to shows them we are willing to pay more tax to ensure Gillard’s budget remains in surplus

  5. jenauthor

    Absolutely, fighting for people to pay less tax. How dare him!!! No one would want that

    People love paying tax, his support will reach the NSW ALP level soon

  6. jenauthor

    the only people politicising this flooding disaster are the msm and the coalition. they need to be called out for it.

  7. Its funny a Liberal Levy is not a tax according to them. Yet a Labor Levy is a tax. Come on Tone surely even you see the misplaced logic.

  8. Can I ask, Dovif, where your hands were when you wrote that?

    I live in Sydney where cost of living is supposedly higher and I defy you to point out ANYONE I know who earns more than $50,000 a year, who cannot afford a dollar or two a week!

    How much have you had in tax cuts over the past 3 years? 3 percent? More?

    The one thing everyone forgets is that the ‘governments money’ is actually ‘our money’ — you pay no matter what.

    Stop whinging about a pittance you won’t even see and be thankful your world is still intact.

  9. [I think Julia has snookered Abbott into a corner. He had better watch out. He has lost all credibility.]

    Credibility Victoria? He had some? Where?

  10. jenauthor

    I never thought Abbott had any credibility. Never ever. But some misguided souls obviously do. Now, I hope they think twice 😉

  11. Hey Dovif — have you been watching the Egypt riots. More than half the population live on less than $2 a day. How would a Liberal cope?

  12. I wonder if dovif was that guy that called ABC radio today complaining that just because he makes $200,000.00 dollars a year, does not mean he doing well.

    Honestly, some people have more front than Myers!!

  13. [Turnbull says that Libs will stop construction of NBN if they are elected.]

    How much will that cost in paying out contracts already in place? How many jobs will it cost.

    Geez Turnbull even you know you cannot stop it now.

  14. Dovif you think the BER wasted $5 billion – which give or take a million is 5 billion out. How dare someone that misinformed dare try another snide post with about as much factual foundation.

  15. jenauthor

    my hands was covering my mouth laughing.

    Quite simply Gillard made a bad mistake, for very little gain, she raised taxes on a lot of people. She gave people a reason to be upset at her. It would be much easier to cut $1 billion off something instead.

    she said that the budget has to be in surplus and therefore linking the increase in tax to her budget surplus.

    If she said that we are paying .5% more to ensure Qld people have shelter … no one would care

    But she keep coming up with the budget surplus line and really tell us our tax goes to her budget surplus. And she is wondering why people are mad at her. It is rather funny.

    I have not met one person in the world who have paid too little tax, in fact some people in Greece held riots, because the government mentioned they might start taxing them

  16. 13 – victoria – I hope you’re right but we keep saying these things, yet the poll numbers are inert. Abbott’s doing something right. Something to keep the Tory vote competitive. It’s obvious he’s appealing to base elements, but unbelievably he nearly won an election.

    I’m worried. then again, I’m always worried.

    I heard somewhere today Oakeshott wont support or is unlikely to support the levy (can’t find the link). Dear God, imagine if a government were to lose a vote on the floor of the House for $1.40 per week.

  17. Jenauthor,
    [Hey Dovif — have you been watching the Egypt riots. More than half the population live on less than $2 a day. How would a Liberal cope?]
    Nicely done, take a bow!

  18. [I wonder if dovif was that guy that called ABC radio today complaining that just because he makes $200,000.00 dollars a year, does not mean he doing well.]

    This is missing the point. I know a family on more than 200k who budget on a day to day basis due to where they have invested and their daily expenses. They will obviously be able to restructure and pay any levy of this nature with ease, but its not as if people on those incomes have 200k sitting in a streamline account at the local CBA ready to go. People get used to lifestyles based on not only their current income but their aspirational income (ie they live just a tad beyond their actual means). Any tax increase will be treated negatively and it will take time to get the message across- then the public may well come onside.

    The question is: “Is Julia up for a marathon?”

    …or more importantly is her party?

  19. WewantPaul

    actually it was the government review who said the BER wasted $5 billion

    The government review said that private school project on average cost 25% less than government ones. Eventhrough the government was getting a “Bulk Buying” discount.

    Since the whole project costed over $20 billion at least $5 billion was wasted

  20. [If she said that we are paying .5% more to ensure Qld people have shelter … no one would care]

    But that would be a lie. Something the Libs seem very capable of.

  21. Dovif,
    Haven’t you got somewhere else to be, something else to do, beating the servants at yonder Manor House maybe?

  22. [dovifPosted Friday, January 28, 2011 at 5:20 pm | PermalinkWewantPaul
    actually it was the government review who said the BER wasted $5 billion
    The government review said that private school project on average cost 25% less than government ones. Eventhrough the government was getting a “Bulk Buying” discount.
    Since the whole project costed over $20 billion at least $5 billion was wasted
    ]

    Why aren’t you bg and Evan out there at Menzies House rigging those polls.
    Or did you finally get a nice dose of Workchoices ??

  23. [The government review said that private school project on average cost 25% less than government ones…]

    Another mistruth. 😛

  24. jen author 17

    Imagine if they live under a ALP government

    Tax on $2 will be $1.45

    .45c goes to the waste of BER/Insulation/Green Loan etc, 50c goes to building a boardband which increase performance from your current boardband a little. 50c goes to the 3 million review the government have held since being reelected. 50c goes to running of the economy …. oh wait that is too much money

    We will just borrow it

  25. 25% of $20 billion is about 5 billion so you have year five maths nailed. Now time for you to take up year 4 reading comprehension and well you should start logic from the beginning.

  26. Victoria,
    Dovif, Mod Lib et al would rather we be arguing with them about the worth of the Labor government that commenting on the worthlessness of the Coalition government and their joke of a leader. It is a defection tactic, that is all.

  27. [If I were making $200,000.00 a year. $2,000 would be lose change for me]

    Victoria:

    Everyone on x thinks that everyone on 2x is swimming in money and can find money easily to do anything they want.

    insert any amount you want into x, the rule still applies. How? Because when you move from an income of x to an income of 2x your lifestyle changes accordingly so you may end up actually having no more cash in your bank account.

  28. Cannot wait for the next poll … there is no need for us Liberals to rig anything

    The ALP does the job for us

    All the waste … brilliant
    RSPT …. brilliant
    Knifing Rudd …. brilliant
    Tax hike to cover Gillard’s budget surplus …. brilliant

  29. [dovifPosted Friday, January 28, 2011 at 5:26 pm | PermalinkCannot wait for the next poll … there is no need for us Liberals to rig anything
    The ALP does the job for us
    All the waste … brilliant
    RSPT …. brilliant
    Knifing Rudd …. brilliant
    Tax hike to cover Gillard’s budget surplus …. brilliant
    ]

    That “pleasuring” of Abbott whixch was part of your Workpplace Agreement has really messed with your mind.

  30. [Dvif and Mod Lib are so funny. Do I hear the the sound of fingernails clutching at straws?]
    Nope. I am mistaken. Sorry guys.

    It is the sound of the shovels as the cleaners remove the excreta from the floors of Fib HQ after they saw Julia’s presser. 😆

  31. Mod Lib

    [This is missing the point. I know a family on more than 200k who budget on a day to day basis due to where they have invested and their daily expenses. They will obviously be able to restructure and pay any levy of this nature with ease, but its not as if people on those incomes have 200k sitting in a streamline account at the local CBA ready to go. People get used to lifestyles based on not only their current income but their aspirational income (ie they live just a tad beyond their actual means). Any tax increase will be treated negatively and it will take time to get the message across- then the public may well come onside.]

    I understand the point you are making, but the way income is structured makes a huge difference, too. If PAYE yes, they will notice a cut. If they are on a ‘package’, or have investments which bring in tax deductibility, that’s different.
    I think the ones who want to make a big deal of this levy are pretending that everyone’s the same. If I were smart enough to earn 200K a year I’d also rely on smart financial advice (if I could find some :lol:)

  32. Mod Lib

    amazing how people expect the govt to have money for everything, and these same people cannot manage their own budget even if they are making $200,000.00. What a hypocritical position to take.

  33. [All the waste … brilliant
    RSPT …. brilliant
    Knifing Rudd …. brilliant
    Tax hike to cover Gillard’s budget surplus …. brilliant]
    And you’re still in opposition.

  34. [We will just borrow it]

    The real reason libs don’t like the small levy they already had memorized their dishonest talking points and by not borrowing Julia has confused them and messed up their lies or is that line or is there any difference.

  35. Mod Lib

    That is a load of tosh. A loaf of bread or a bottle of milk or a bunch of carrots costs the same if you make 10k or 200k

  36. [Turnbull says that Libs will stop construction of NBN if they are elected.]

    Sounds like Turnbull is angling to take over the leadership again and is playing to the RWers in the party and their media bosses.

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