Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. [If I were smart enough to earn 200K a year I’d also rely on smart financial advice ]

    Not sure income is an indicator of intelligence! At least I hope not
    🙂

  2. If I were making $200,000.00 a year. $2,000 would be lose change for me

    The levy on $200,000 is actually $1,250 ie

    $24 per week. $3.40 per day.

  3. Frank,
    We have some very funny Libs here today. They are trying to defend someone on $200k a year chipping in $2k to pay for infrastructure vital to the economy that gives them their gold. Frank, are most Fibs like this or is this just a dud batch?

  4. Mod Lib @ 51

    So do I 🙂

    But you’re right that people tend to live up to their income and a little over. That’s the kind of society we have now. It’s a very self-interested time.

  5. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.Posted Friday, January 28, 2011 at 5:32 pm | PermalinkFrank,
    We have some very funny Libs here today. They are trying to defend someone on $200k a year chipping in $2k to pay for infrastructure vital to the economy that gives them their gold. Frank, are most Fibs like this or is this just a dud batch?
    ]

    It’s the Norm – btw – The Miners and CUB Daily in WA are in the anti Levy mode.

  6. Frank Calabrese

    I have no fear on workplace agreements, I have been on one all my life. I have never been on an award

    I kinda like to be paid on merit

  7. [That is a load of tosh. A loaf of bread or a bottle of milk or a bunch of carrots costs the same if you make 10k or 200k]

    And if everyone ate the same, drove the same car and went to the same restaurants and ordered the same things from the menus……

    etc etc. what you are saying is correct. The person on 200k would be swimming in loose change! All I am saying is that it may seem that people on higher incomes than you can easily accommodate any increase in tax and if they raise an eyebrow then they are greedy or mean is just not the case.

    Yes, those on 200k will be able to pay this. Its fairly minimal in quantum. I am talking perspective here, and how they will perceive the government- the vibe as they said in the Castle! The vibe is the govt is asking for more when I am not confident that they have done well with what I have already given them vs. the vibe that the govt are good at managing things. Which vibe will win? We shall know in 1-2 months.

  8. [amazing how people expect the govt to have money for everything, and these same people cannot manage their own budget even if they are making $200,000.00. What a hypocritical position to take.]

    Sounds like a certain pollie we know who lives well beyond his means – mortgage wise i.e.

  9. MOd Lib
    [If I were smart enough to earn 200K a year I’d also rely on smart financial advice ]
    What Mod Lib, to get out of paying the levy? So you would honestly pay money to a financial advisor that you could donate to the Flood Appeal to help people who have lost most everything, so you could avoid paying a tiny levy to rebuild infrastructure that your country relies on?
    Yes.
    No.

    Please put an ‘x’ next to your answer.

  10. dovif

    [I kinda like to be paid on merit]

    I never had a workplace agreement that managed that. You must be one smart negotiator.

  11. [I have no fear on workplace agreements, I have been on one all my life. I have never been on an award]

    Young whipper snapper. 😛

  12. Mod Lib
    [This is missing the point. I know a family on more than 200k who budget on a day to day basis due to where they have invested and their daily expenses. They will obviously be able to restructure and pay any levy of this nature with ease, but its not as if people on those incomes have 200k sitting in a streamline account at the local CBA ready to go. People get used to lifestyles based on not only their current income but their aspirational income (ie they live just a tad beyond their actual means). Any tax increase will be treated negatively and it will take time to get the message across- then the public may well come onside.]
    Nobody said that greed, wealth and stupidity were mutually exclusive 😀

  13. Dovif,
    If you dare to, answer the same question,

    So you would honestly pay money to a financial advisor that you could donate to the Flood Appeal to help people who have lost most everything, so you could avoid paying a tiny levy to rebuild infrastructure that your country relies on?
    Yes.
    No.

    Please put an ‘x’ next to your answer.

  14. Puff #60
    [What Mod Lib, to get out of paying the levy? So you would honestly pay money to a financial advisor that you could donate to the Flood Appeal to help people who have lost most everything, so you could avoid paying a tiny levy to rebuild infrastructure that your country relies on?
    Yes.
    No.

    Please put an ‘x’ next to your answer.]

    I think you will find you have directed this to the wrong person!

  15. [If I were smart enough to earn 200K a year I’d also rely on smart financial advice]
    NONE of the smartest people I know earn $200k. They are usually wankers who are either desperate to prove themselves after having stuffed around and done badly at school, dishonest schemers, or people incapable of seeing past their own bulgin wallet. In short, the single characteristic that describes most wealthy peopel is greed. Some are also lucky, some clever, some megalomaniacs, many self deceptive, some dishonest. But most of the really smart people are too busy doing what they are interested in to play that stupid game.

  16. [Nobody said that greed, wealth and stupidity were mutually exclusive ]

    beautifully put! A lot of very rich people are misers. Thats how they got there!

  17. [Sounds like a certain pollie we know who lives well beyond his means – mortgage wise i.e.]
    I thought Rabbott renegotiated a $700,000 loan just for household running expenses.
    Something really smelly in this & moi has a gut feeling that the Rabbott had been promised the PMinistership & was pretty sure whoever 😆 made that promise would come through.
    Any wonder he squealed the loudest about taking an income hit.

  18. bemused,
    [Monetary poverty as well as intellectual poverty appeals to you? 👿 ]
    That dear boy is easy meat.

  19. What tax is that Dovif? I now this is not a tax because it has a specific job. That means it is not a tax Dovif, it is a levy.

    That is the crucial difference between a levy and a tax Dovif, that specific purpose bit. How do I know this?

    A very clever man said this was the case Dovif. Indeed, it was the very man who leads this great fight for battling Australians on $200,000 a year like ML’s impoverished chums.

    Mr Abbott maintains this levy is not a tax.

    “A levy has a specific job…”

    Oh and Dovif, now you are back, what was that alternative policy you had to a levy?

    Don’t worry too much about ML and Dovif’s arithmetic. They are Liberals and Libs can’t add up. Joe couldn’t add up, Andrew couldn’t add up and Tony couldn’t care less about adding up.

  20. [But she keep coming up with the budget surplus line and really tell us our tax goes to her budget surplus. And she is wondering why people are mad at her. It is rather funny.

    I have not met one person in the world who have paid too little tax, in fact some people in Greece held riots, because the government mentioned they might start taxing them]

    Dovif — if we were in Greece’s position I’d agree with you.

    The unadulterated greed of people who have it so damn good simply astounds me.

    Julia has not made a mistake.

    If you lived where the bridges/roads/hospitals/public transport has been knocked out, you’d be squealing like a pig for them to be fixed yesterday.

    Sorry but I have no patience for downright greed and misinformation. The Liberal ‘meanness’ defies description!

  21. […the vibe as they said in the Castle!]

    What is the vibe for people who have to drive an extra 70klm a day because the local bridge needs fixing?

  22. Jenauthor,
    You won’t convince them. It is no coincidence all this Julia bashing started right after her excellent presser.

  23. Did anyone notice that Franklin’s very derogatory piece in The Drum (I think it was there) was written before he tweeted that Julia had done a good job in the Press Club?
    Lots of cognitive dissonance there.

  24. [they could still answer the question, if they have the cojones]

    OK.

    I suspect there is a linear relationship between income and money spent on financial advisors. So, yes, very rich people spend much more than the rich. The reason for this is to minimise their costs, any costs, and yes including their tax costs. This is not so that they can pay a financial advisor rather than donate, they may well do both. Bill Gates donates money in the billions of dollars not dollars. I bet he spends millions on accountants and financial advisors / business managers. Tens of millions perhaps.

    (…and apology accepted by the way!) 🙂

  25. [I know a family on more than 200k who budget on a day to day basis due to where they have invested and their daily expenses. They will obviously be able to restructure and pay any levy of this nature with ease, but its not as if people on those incomes have 200k sitting in a streamline account at the local CBA ready to go. People get used to lifestyles based on not only their current income but their aspirational income (ie they live just a tad beyond their actual means). Any tax increase will be treated negatively and it will take time to get the message across- then the public may well come onside.]

    Now I KNOW how misguided people can be.

    OOOH they’lll have to restructure their investments! But, they will still eat out three times a week, I expect — that is something our affluence demands, doesn’t it?

    Maybe they’ll have to go a day less on their European trip this year. Sad.

    The levy is money you won’t even see.

    Do you pay $13 (whatever the amount is) per month to enable you to post on Crikey? Would more than pay your levy.

    I really am losing patience with such nonsense.

  26. Dee,
    [LABOR has questioned whether Tony Abbott could manage the Australian economy after he failed to declare a new $710,000 mortgage on his family home. ]
    [After moving into opposition after the Coalition lost the last election, Mr Abbott took a $90,000 pay cut on the $200,000-plus salary he earned as federal health minister.]
    Take out a $710k loan because your pay dropped $90k a year. Hmmm.

  27. Mod lib
    [beautifully put! A lot of very rich people are misers. Thats how they got there!]
    On that we agree. This is where I think they become obsessive and stupid. Financial security is one thing. But if you waste your whole life chasing more wealth, when you already have ample to be comfortable, then you are just a sucker to every smart salesman in town. Stupid you. Howard made a virtue outof chasing these people’s votes, but since I am not a politican trying to get elected, I don’t have to pretend. I think these people lead empty, worthless lives.

    BTW this does not mean I think that poverty is good, or thet all poor people are virtuous. Both extremes of the wealth spectrum are stupid.

  28. [The government review said that private school project on average cost 25% less than government ones. Eventhrough the government was getting a “Bulk Buying” discount.]

    Get ALL the facts — the state schools have much higher standards and building obligations than private schools. The safety measures and OH&S requirements automatically make everything more expensive.

    Jeeezus! Everyone has a comment but they don’t do their homework. How do I know? — I worked in the state school system for 8 years!

  29. [What is the vibe for people who have to drive an extra 70klm a day because the local bridge needs fixing?]

    It happened to us when a local bridge had to be repaired because of flooding. It was a daily bugbear for 2 months but when it was finished we thanked the Council for finding the money to finally fix the problem properly.

    Qlders will thank the Gillard Govt. for repairing their infrastructure through the levy and funding. Bligh will be thanked if she can make sure her budget delivers for Qlders.

  30. People who have taxable income of $200,000 p.a. would nearly all earn far in excess of this.

    By the time their accoutants have set up their affairs with trusts, tax reducing investments etc., they are left to barely survive on that $200K.

    I feel for them.

  31. dovif

    If you were paid on merit you’d be seriously in debt.

    This statement of yours

    [actually it was the government review who said the BER wasted $5 billion]

    is absolute rubbish. I know you can get away with that crap on Blot’s blog but this place has a much higher test of credibility. You’ve failed that test time after time.

  32. Dovif at 26

    Please dont make up figures and reviews.

    Orvil interim report 1 gave an estimate of a premium on price for urgency at around 5-6% which on a 16 billion dollar spend is about 1 billion dollars.

    Orvil report 2 – does not conclude that the project did not deliver value for money and estimates the project created 120,000 jobs and that it6s estimate is that less than 1% of projects demonstrated poor value for money outcomes.

    The actual savings to the fiscal bottom line in having an extra 350,000 taxpayers and not paying out welfare benefits to employed persons who would have been otherwise unemployed is of course in the many billions.

    Whether its merely being disengenuous or pure economic illiteracy the ‘waste’ proponents of the BER have very little credibility.

  33. On the online page of the Age there are pictures of Neil Mitchell and Gillard with the healine “Don’t patronise me, Prime Minister”.
    Is that a true quote from the Mitchell?

  34. Those damn Liberalites…. how dare they want to pay less tax
    Those people with 2 kids and a mortgage, how dare they want to pay less tax. If they cannot afford 2 kids, put them up for adoption, if they cannot afford a mortgage, go buy a tent!!
    And those bastard union liberal stooges, how dare they complain that their member will have to pay more tax.
    We selfless laborlites should show them the way, we should demand the government tax us at 70c to the dollar, to shows them we are willing to pay more tax to ensure Gillard’s budget remains in surplus

    Dovif demonstrating that he’s even worse at satire than he is at analysis. I wouldn’t have thought it possible, but there you go.

  35. Joe6Pack,
    [after being to Mackay twice this week i am quite happy to pay the levy if it helps to fix the roads.]
    Good on you. 🙂 Yes, it is to fix the infrastructure and listening to the soldier in charge, I think he said roads, transport were top priority.

  36. Was it a billion dollars that Abbott offered as bribe to buy Wilkie’s vote?

    What do dovif and ML have to say about that? Where was that money coming from? Oh, of course, it was coming from the black hole. You people actually support a party that operates that way? You claim to support sensible economic managers? What a laugh.

  37. Thanks, mithrandir and Puff. Patronisation at 10 paces, eh?

    Actually, I’m getting a little tired of the “grim Julia” the papers are using on their web pages. And the ABC. It always reveals the attitude of the editor towards the subject.

  38. Tom Hawkins,
    [Was it a billion dollars that Abbott offered as bribe to buy Wilkie’s vote?]
    He that promiseth can taketh away. I wonder if the bill would ever have materialised?

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