Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,344 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Groves had a milk run prior to setting up ABC Leaning.

    He figured that borrowing to buy a second run and employing someone to work it that he could clean up. He repeated this many times over before he moved on to ABC where he applied the same *business model* on a supercharged basis.

    Temasek the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund by the way lost a fortune of the ABC collapse – think they were the largest shareholder apart from groves etc

  3. bg 4295

    Thanks for the link to the Chris Joye piece. He agrees with me! (4298). There was no reason for McKibbon to criticise the levy plan on monetarist economic grounds, which is McKibbon’s job.

  4. Never let it be said that Julian Leaser (sp) can tell the truth. He even stumbled when he started to say the levy will make life hard for people who can ill afford it.

  5. Julian Leeser (Lib stooge) on Contrarians played the part. Now boofhead Senior saying a 2012/3 deficit would be OK. I ask you!!!

  6. Zoomster
    Tasmania has always been the poorest state..!
    .I can remember visiting there in the “50ies when it had a real feeling of poverty and isolation…though that is still true of much of rural Qland…away from the Glitz of the Gold Coast or Noosa and Brisbane/Cairns/Townsville …a world away from Victoria ,which has always been a rich(small)state

  9. Dave @ 4294

    It became a ponzi scheme the more it grew by taking over other centres. Lazy incompetent bankers sailed over the cliff with the company, although *some* institutional investors just got out be the skin of their teeth.

    Exactly! Absolutely no-one spotted it sooner.

  10. The old and the Levy………….
    …………………………..
    I am amazed to see elderly people on the media opposing the Levy.!
    Few old people pay tax these days due to recent changes,so they won’t be effected
    For many it’s a nasty mixture of spite and bile and sheer selfishness
    What a deplorable lot some Australians are !!

  15. I can’t understand that Lib stooge on the Contrarians (Julian someone?). He’s still running the idea that retailers are going to go broke etc. when the Levy is collected by government and not spent by consumers.

    But the whole idea behind it IS to spend it! Just not in Sydney or Melbourne, but in Queensland.

    What a bloody nong!

  16. Leeser is the epitome of the modern Liberal.

    Generous with ideas and complaints, but heaven forbid you ask for one cent of my income.

    Tax cuts since Labor came into office probably make people of his ilk $10,000 a year better off … and he still gets his health insurance subsidised by low income earners … but can he part with a couple of gold coins per week?????

    He, and his Lib comrades, disgust me!

  19. [I can’t understand that Lib stooge on the Contrarians (Julian someone?). He’s still running the idea that retailers are going to go broke etc. when the Levy is collected by government and not spent by consumers.]
    BB
    I’m sure he IS aware and is knowingly putting out untruths.

  20. [ We have since discovered the real estate agent is not bound to disclose this information.]

    Er no that it what lawyers do when you pay them do land conveyancing.

  21. [We’re in a secluded valley so never see sunsets properly.]

    Bad luck about the lack of sunsets but a secluded valley sounds almost like Shangri-La

  22. [he response of financial markets was emphatic: the probability of future interest rate hikes was instantly cut. Investors with real cash in the money markets decided that the government’s package was anti-inflationary, and would relieve some of the monetary policy burden on the Reserve Bank.

    Yet Gillard and Swan have been pummelled by the pundits.

    While one can always quibble with the details, the truth is that the Government’s package is thoughtful and responsible.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/43308.html

    b_g – you have found some interesting stuff today for those of us are too busy to browse around. At the moment I’ve got 4 pages open I’m working on and making a hash of them because I’m trying to read PB and the links as well. Shouldn’t have admitted that because we all know women can do 6 things at once!

    BK – that Julian ? on Agenda is the biggest pain in the neck I’ve ever watched. Every week he gets worse.

  23. BK – am I right in saying Julian just raved on about the levy may discourage people from taking out insurance, blah, blah without Gilbert even challenging that statement?

  25. Exactly! Absolutely no-one spotted it sooner.

    One of the major institutional investors sold out just before the crash. Don’t recall which one but is was detailed in the AFR recently

    Groves had ALWAYS told them that “occupancy” (of their centres) *was everything*.

    Then one day he started saying occupancy wasn’t necessarily everything. The institutional investor sold out very quickly because of it.

    ABC also changed auditors. They may have been forced to by investors – I’m not sure.
    But the new auditor took one look and knew there was big trouble. He refused to accept previous years audits going back many years and as they say, the rest is history.

    ABC‘s share price gave investors at least 11 months warning of trouble and it went down much more over another 12 months.

  29. BH @ 4323

    BK – am I right in saying Julian just raved on about the levy may discourage people from taking out insurance, blah, blah without Gilbert even challenging that statement?

    He should have been asked straight out if he was stupid or just lying?

  30. Turning off contrarians — 2 against 1 — with more untruths going through to the keeper than Pakistani no balls …. it is beyond my ability to endure!

  32. [Bad luck about the lack of sunsets but a secluded valley sounds almost like Shangri-La]

    TomH – it truly is and I count my blessings every morning when I look outside and watch mother wallies with their little ones out of the pouch and birdlife going crazy everywhere.

    BK – Troy did well and at last a Labor person is defending the BER spend in the right way. 98% positive spend, he said, with schools all over the country pleased with their new buildings.

    Julian Leeser must be auditioning for Abbott’s job.

  34. My peeves aside, Victoria — in the past couple of days Gilbert has been challenging the Liberal shite a lot more. He may just be laying devils advocate, but at least he is not sounding like the typical sycophant.

  35. [He should have been asked straight out if he was stupid or just lying?]

    Exactly but that isn’t in Gilbert’s script. Just googled Leeser and found he’s a Director of the Menzies Institute – enough said.

  38. [POLLYTICS | 29 seconds ago
    Finally caught up with the Neil Mitchell interview. Belligerence cuddling up to a piss poor effort at being across the detail. Pathetic]

  41. [in the past couple of days Gilbert has been challenging the Liberal shite a lot more. He may just be laying devils advocate, but at least he is not sounding like the typical sycophant.]

    He was good the other day with his comment after interviewing Costello who said something about taking your opportunities as they come and not letting them pass you by. Gilbert said wtte that Costello didn’t follow his own advice.

    BB’s source might be right and there may be more inside the Murdoch camp who are a trifle upset at what they have to dish out.

  44. [Roy OrbisonPosted Friday, January 28, 2011 at 1:42 pm | Permalink“2GB this morning is wall to wall anti-Gillard – not great for Labor.”
    And the difference from the other 364 days of the year would be?
    2GB and all the stations like it are pathetice. And they know it. They have an audience to pander to and that’s what they do. Tell brain dead people what they want to hear. They like to tell their audience that they are players but they don’t have any pull whatsoever with government.
    ]

    And this is the Station of Choice to one Generic Heffalump – whose family Trattoria adevertise on.

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