Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,344 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. No Newspoll. Hmmmm, maybe Rupe is short of money as the circulation of his print versions are declining rapidly and his iPad version The Daily is delayed:

    [News Corp.’s iPad-only newspaper, The Daily, has reportedly been delayed. The Daily is digital, iPad-only newspaper from Rupert Murdoch, which downloads a new edition every morning, like a regular newspaper. Recent rumours had said that ‘The Daily’ would be revealed on January 19th at the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art with both Murdoch and Steve Jobs in attendance, however, new sources state that both Apple and News Corp. have made the decision to delay the launch by “weeks, not months”.

    The problem is said to lie within Apple’s new subscription service, which uses iTunes to bill subscribers on a weekly or monthly basis, and sync the new edition everyday. A PR representative from News Corp. has confirmed the delay, however Apple has refused to comment.

    Is anyone excited for “The Daily” newspaper? Anyone have any apps that they would like to see this NEW subscription service in?]

    How original is the title: The Daily. Who is the target audience? It will sink like a stone.

  2. yes, the dictatorship and authoritarianship will fear it, so will its equivalent of the MSM, Peter Hatcher should also add. Citizen journalism has been there long before facebook.

    The old saying of “easy come, and easy goes” will also apply to Facebook. It is now the King of the mountain, so was Myspace only few short years ago. The new kid is not yet in the Cyberspace and the business model that will make serious profit is still not there. One thing is valuation, another thing is sustainable business model. Remember dotcom?

    [Eleven months ago Facebook Inc was valued at $US11.5 billion by a marketplace for shares in companies that, like Facebook, are not publicly listed on the main stock exchanges.

    Five months ago the price tag attached to the firm had risen to $US25 billion. Last month the company was valued at $US50 billion, according to the price paid for a private placement of shares………….

    The runaway appeal of social networking sites gives us new evidence that the thymos and its craving for the acknowledgment of the individual is a powerful force in human societies. It is the force that China’s dictators most fear.

    As for shares in Facebook or any other such company, beware. The sad fate of the fast-fading MySpace is an object lesson. The human desire for recognition may be permanent. But no one company has a monopoly on how best to address it.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/facebook-thymos-and-the-triumph-of-the-individual-20110124-1a2ui.html

  3. [The OO wouldn’t bury a Newspoll that was a bad one for Abbott, surely not! ;)]
    4475 Evan14 on prev thread

    Actually it might be the reverse. The figures might show Abbott ahead in PPM polling and even Shanas knows that that can’t be right.

  7. Yep, blame Gillard for setting a bad example:

    [THIS is a story of an unmarried female populist politician replacing a clever but struggling technocrat male leader.

    Sound familiar? No, it’s not Julia Gillard, but rather Lara Giddings, the 38-year-old catapulted to the leadership of the Tasmanian ALP, becoming the island state’s first female premier.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/labor-reaches-to-its-heartland/story-e6frg6z6-1225993858039

  8. I wonder if this sort of specific analysis can be done on our (and the rest of the southern hemisphere’s) recent rainfall? The author of this article is an expert on the relationship between CC and the insurance industry:

    “Among other events, Allen and his colleagues analysed the heatwave that struck western Europe in 2003, causing about 35,000 premature deaths and €13.1 billion in losses. As with the Queensland floods, this was a large, extreme weather event that could have happened without human-caused climate change. But they found something very interesting: human-caused climate change made the heatwave about six times more likely.

    So, climate change can contribute to an increased likelihood of extreme weather events. Insurance against such risks may become more expensive, perhaps prohibitively so.

    But here’s the real sting in the tail: over time, climate change can mean insurance for weather risks – including extreme events – shifts from affordable to barely affordable, and eventually the risks become uninsurable.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/cuts-in-emissions-are-at-a-premium-20110124-1a2ul.html

  10. More evidence of the travesty that is the federal government’s state aid to schools. How they can continue this based on fear of the elite lobby is beyond me – they have actually made it worse than Howard’s original ideological rort. Pity our great state school systems.

    INCREASED enrolments fail to account for the doubling of federal funding for Sydney’s richest private schools over the past decade.
    Funding for each secondary student at The King’s School in Parramatta, for example, has risen to $3589, or by 176 per cent, since 2001. Secondary enrolments have risen 18 per cent.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/private-school-students-win-bigger-share-of-funding-20110124-1a2wr.html

  12. Good Morning Bludgers!

    Sadly, BK, all people hear is ‘great big new tax’ and will readily believe it is on everything.

  15. BK

    yes, the cartoon says it all.

    I have said that the Rabbott and his cronies are just trying to muddy the waters, and of course, whatever sticks is good for them. They are quite despicable.

  19. So how does Julia’s post-disaster approval/satisfaction compare historically?

    Approval/Satisfaction vs. Disapproval/Dissatisfaction:
    May 96 (Pt Arthur): Howard 67-14%
    Oct 01 (after 911): Howard 61-30%
    Oct 02 (after Bali): Howard 62-30%
    Jan 05 (Tsunami): Howard 60-30%

    Jan 11 (Qld flood): Gillard 51-36 % (Essential as no Newspoll)

    Given Howard was a known known from the start of his PMship his bounces (from 2% to 17%) which took him to 60% + approval is in stark contrast to Julia’s unkown (fresh slate) small bounce to 50%. If she cant find her stride in the next couple of years, she will need to watch out for Mr Shorten! IMO anyway…

  20. BK
    That is an article by Rob Whelan not the Editorial. He is Insurance Council of Australia. His particular concern appeared to be that the flood levy would be added to housing insurance as a basic cost to insurance premiums.
    He also said wtte, they support the notion of a universal definition of flood, provided it is voluntary, and provided it is not the one that has already been developed. In other words…

  21. ML

    Those are interesting figures. But, but, but, did the MSM concentrate on Howard’s hairy eyebrows, his curious voice, and his dump demeanor etc, etc, during the Port Arthur tragedy?

    If not, they let Howard get away with murder.

  22. Boerwar,

    I suspect there are many reasons for the figures turning out the way they did, but reporting of Julia’s dress sense aint one of them! Howard has been ridiculed for his appearance throughout his political life. You can approve of someone/be satisfied without actually liking them/wanting them over for dinner of course!

  23. [This issue is fundamentally more complicated than simply defining flood because consumers don’t necessarily want to purchase the same insurance product. This is why maintaining a competitive general insurance market in Australia should be central to this critical debate.
    ]

    This is the point I was trying to make the other night.

  26. I read those figures on the funding for private schools in the SMH this morning with a feeling of disgust and sadness. I know for the rodent it was his ideology writ large but why is labor continuing with it. The more funding these private schools get the more they jack up their fees. The balance must change.

  28. Why does Hockey’s comments remind me of a US Republican? Being patriotic, but not enough to support the best interests of the nation and these citizens.

    [JOEHOCKEY | 2 hours 46 minutes ago
    It seems that every flooded home in Fig Tree Pocket in Bris.now has a proud and defiant Aussie flag in front yard.Inspiring stuff!]

  32. SK:

    I certainly hope you are wrong! Looking at the party ratings on the important issues from Essential, the Coalition win on all the following:
    Leadership
    Economy
    Interest rates
    Environment
    Climate change
    taxation
    terrorism
    population growth
    water

    …so given all of that the Coalition should be far more ahead I would have thought. If that continues for the next 2 years, Tony will need to look over his shoulder as well. Whether Turnbull will be the one to take over, on the other hand, is less clear.

  33. Henry@26

    I read those figures on the funding for private schools in the SMH this morning with a feeling of disgust and sadness. I know for the rodent it was his ideology writ large but why is labor continuing with it. The more funding these private schools get the more they jack up their fees. The balance must change.

    It is sad. I think the reasons for Labor continuing – and enhancing – the funding rorts include:

    1. Fear of the private schools’ lobbies.
    2. Fear of another poorly handles Lathamesque ‘hit list’ episode.
    3. Lack of ability to lead the nation on any issue.
    4. Lack of any policy principles such as equity, especially since the takeover by the Empty Vessels in June 2010.
    5. Lack of appreciation of the value of our state public school systems to our egalitarian heritage – or to our future social direction.
    6. Lack of understanding of why parents ‘follow the money’.

  37. b-g

    not sure about that. Essential was only good for the PM in respect of the handling of the flood crisis. 42% in her favour, and 19% for Abbott. In every other area, the coalition are ahead.

  38. Mod Lib,

    For whatever reason, (and I am beginning to think under the table deals with a particular media baron) RAbbott, even after saying the most moronic and awful things, seems untouchable.

    I personally, believe that he is not a leaders arske, but the msm seem to think he is the messiah himself and regularly allow him to walk on water despite the biggest gaffes possible.

    Until that changes, he will be untouchable within the party.

  42. SK#38

    I posted link at 18 re article that James (son of Rupert) Murdoch was guest at private dinner with PM Cameron, days after the PM stripped Lib Dem business secretary, of crucial decision on whether News Corp should buy 61% of BSkyB.
    Abbott had a meeting with Rupert, after he became opposition Leader. What has Abbott’s main mantra been? Scrap the NBN.
    If it walk likes a duck…………………………….

  44. [TSOP

    Really?]

    Yup. I think it would be suicide for Labor to dump another PM. As for Abbott, he and the Coalition are exactly where they want to be. ie with their heads still above water. If the polls are still oscillating around the 50-50 mark come the next election, a good campaign will be enough to take government. And say what you want about Abbott, he is good on the campaign trail. (That’s his one strength.)

  48. Good points JV and i agree with them.
    Whatever happened to courage in the labor party. This private school funding rort is a shocking anomaly and must be fixed! I have nothing against private schools btw, why, i drive past one every day…

  49. So where the hell has all the gazillions poured into Iraq over the years gone?
    For some reason names like Halliburton et al immediately come to mind.

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