Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,344 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. The courier mail editorialises along the lines of “Tony Abbott hates Queenslanders”

    Politics must not muddy levy plan by Paul Syvret From: The Courier-Mail January 25, 2011 12:00AM

    HERE’S a question for Tony Abbott: how is raising money to help tens of thousands of people whose lives and livelihoods have been shattered by the Queensland floods a “great big new tax”?

    No sooner had Prime Minister Julia Gillard rightly and honestly said that the Federal Government was considering all options for paying for the cost of the disaster including a possible temporary levy to raise some extra revenue than our alternative prime minister was off his medication again.

    “Great big new tax, great big new tax.”

    Honestly, the cynicism and political opportunism of the man can give you as bad a headache as the stench still wafting from the mud in some areas of Brisbane and Ipswich.

    And that’s before we get to the rank hypocrisy.

    Is this the same Tony Abbott who was a member of the Howard government cabinet, which used special purpose at every opportunity to fund politically expedient or unforeseen expenditure?

    Was it not the Howard government that gave us a special levy to pay for the gun buyback in the wake of the Port Arthur massacre?

    That was, though, definitely good policy (why any “sporting shooter” needs a semi-automatic weapon is beyond me) and as a nation we footed the bill. Fair enough.

    Was it not the Howard government that gave us a special levy on airline tickets to fund payouts to Ansett employees after the airline collapsed?

    Not, mind you, a government that established a national scheme to protect those most at risk in such circumstances, but certainly one prepared to tap the public purse for a few dollars more when the politics of the day demanded it.

    And what of the levy to fund the dairy industry as it dealt with the painful policy impacts of deregulation?

    Was that a “great big new tax”, Mr Abbott? Or was it a helping hand (paid for by the rest of us) for a previously protected sector of the economy that was hurting as a result of policy decisions and very important to the National Party’s polling booth prospects?

    You say you want a balanced Budget and you pay lip-service to supporting those left with shattered homes and shattered lives, and to getting on with the job of rebuilding billions of dollars of damaged public infrastructure.

    That money has to come from somewhere and, no, scrapping the National Broadband Network is not going to solve the problem.

    Aside from depriving Australia of a major piece of nation-building infrastructure that will improve competitiveness and productivity and if managed well may actually return a shekel or two to taxpayers the spend on that program is spread over such a long time frame it is unlikely to meet the immediate rebuilding needs we now face.

    Like John Howard’s gun buyback all those years ago and more recently the defence mounted against the impact of the global financial crisis, we need a quick, decisive and well-funded response, not a knee-jerk, four-word slogan.

    Having spent the best part of the past two weeks covering the floods at ground zero, I can assure you that this event has directly affected far more people’s lives than any dairy industry restructuring or airline collapse.

    So if we’re all pitching in to help each other get through this, what is so wrong with the sort of special levy that the previous government (that would include you) used so often?

    Or do you want spending cuts in other areas? Aged care, perhaps?

    Or maybe removing unemployment benefits for those jobless people under 30? Wait, sorry, you’ve already proposed that.

    What about cutting back some of the middle-class welfare excesses introduced under the previous government, Mr Abbott, such as non-means-tested baby bonuses and private health care rebates? (Memo to Treasurer Wayne Swan: have some guts here, mate, and stop embracing this profligacy . . . the electorate will respect you in the morning.)

    No? I thought not. The Ascot and Toorak mummies may not be able to upgrade their four-wheel-drives in time for the next election.

    So cut the tawdry point-scoring over what has been described by both sides of politics as a disaster of almost biblical proportions.

    Let’s just raise the money to rebuild and then raise a bit more to try and floodproof the most vulnerable areas.

    That’s not going to come as cheap as a 20-second grab on the 6pm news about “great big new taxes”, but it is an investment in our nation and the future.

    Yes, target the levy carefully so it doesn’t hurt those already under real pressure even more. But we are a very, very wealthy nation by world standards and we can afford to pay for this if those among us who are reasonably well-off (and yes, that includes me, and yes, I’m happy to pay) sacrifice a bit.

    Most importantly, we can do it without carving back the spending in areas that also define us as a largely caring and compassionate country.

    We are Australians, we help each other out when the mud hits the fan and we tend to resent cheap politics intruding on getting the job done

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/politics-must-not-muddy-levy-plan/story-e6frerg6-1225993700197

  4. TSOP look at the lines that Gillard used in that coorey article

    ”The federal government is going to step up and do everything we need to do to rebuild Queensland,” she said.

    The connotation in that is that ABbott wouldn’t step up for Queenslanders.

  8. For mine, one of the most worrying situations in the Middle East is Egypt. A deeply entrenched, oppressive government, but one which has so far been able to rely on substantial US and Israeli support behind the scenes, getting more volatile all the time. Real civil conflict in Egypt could easily result in oppression rivalling Saddam’s Iraq and Khomeini’s Iran. In such a case, though, I suspect we will find ourselves officially committed to the side of the “bad guy”.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/24/egypt-day-revolution-protests

  11. b_g @ 54

    ”The federal government is going to step up and do everything we need to do to rebuild Queensland,” she said.

    I will get ready to duck again, but I think she needed to step up and say that during those regular press conferences Anna Bligh ran. Sure, they were primarily Bligh’s gig but other state ministers and the police also spoke. Unfortunately Julia was mute, although I acknowledge this may not have been her personal preference.

    Apologies in advance if she did, but I certainly did not see it.

  12. There has hardly been an lead story with “the opposition leader says” since Christmas. All because the govt are announcing and doing things.

    That’s good. Truth be told, I have only just started getting back into politics and haven’t really been paying that much attention yet.

    Keep it up and they could break the deadlock. In which case, my analysis of Abbott’s tenure as Lib leader would have to be revised. Especially if Brisbane strongly turns against him.

  13. A SUICIDE bomber killed at least 35 people and wounded dozens when he blew himself up in the packed arrivals hall of Moscow’s largest airport.

    There were scenes of carnage at Domodedovo airport in southern Moscow as corpses were stretchered out of the smoke-filled arrivals area after the blast, the latest deadly attack to hit the capital after the metro bombings in last March.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/medvedev-orders-security-crackdown-after-terror-attack-at-domodedovo-airport/story-e6frg6so-1225994036661

  14. ML

    We may have to agree to disagree.

    The MSM’s obsession with Gillard’s style over her substance during the floods was most notable, IMHO. But not, it seems, in YHO.

  15. Henry@48

    Good points JV and i agree with them.
    Whatever happened to courage in the labor party. This private school funding rort is a shocking anomaly and must be fixed! I have nothing against private schools btw, why, i drive past one every day…

    Yes, the more strength you have, the less call for courage. It’s the party’s new weakness I can’t abide.

    I would have less against private schools if the parents sending their precious brats there paid full freight for their ‘choice’, as we do when we choose to use our car instead of public transport.

    The new local cashed-up christian school near me that I drive past every day had the temerity to ‘thank’ everyone at large on its sign for the $3M it got for an unnecessary additional sports hall from the government last year. Obscene.

  16. Blue green

    I get the Courier Mail every day, and am looking forward to reading it today. They have been quite fair over these past few weeks. Before that there was always several articles complaing about Anna and Julia.

    Paul Syvret is very opinionated, but very balanced, and I seem to agree with him a lot of the time. I don’t know how he got a job there. Every two to three months he dips his feet into the AS issue. He seems genuinely concerned for their welfare and tries to point out all the facts that seem to be missing and tries to squash some of the myths perpetuated by TA and Co. He always gets hundreds of replies and unfortunately they are not of the very nice kind.

  17. The courier mail editorialises along the lines of “Tony Abbott hates Queenslanders”

    I feel dirty saying this but Labor should be pushing that talking point.

    That’s okay. I am a Queenslander and I hate Abbott. So we’re even then.

  18. Blackdog

    I have noticed a divergence between the city news ltd papers (herald sun, daily telegraph and courier mail) and the australian lately. Its like the city papers are more closely i tune with its readers – who are getting sick of the relentless negativity.

  20. Rod

    The West has been propping up oppressive autocracies and monarchies in the ME since the year dot. Basically, it has oil walked the democratic talk. In the long run, the net result is rule by theocrats who are there by the grace of their very considerable personal courage against oppression. While the west MSM is not strong on reporting this side of things, anti-regime religious folk are routinely exiled, jailed, tortured, or murdered for their troubles.

    But these same theocrats then run murderous and oppressive anti-western theocracies themselves.

    Is there no happy medium?

    While I agree that Egypt is a volcanic work-in-progress, the state apparatus has a certain robustness. But Mubarak is the glue and he is mortal. My pick for next big cab off the rank is Pakistan. You could sort of see it happening in action when the BBC was running footage of aid to flood victims who had lost everything, and I mean everything except their debts to extortionate moneylenders. The flood victims had to pay around a quarter of their aid to government officials just in order to get inside the office to access their aid.

  23. BG

    I agree. The CM and the commercial TV news have been more focused on the people stories, and they are always pushing the positive angle of people getting in and helping each other out.

    We were lucky and missed the floods by a small margin, but I would imagine the people trying to rebuild their lives and homes would be getting annoyed with Abbtt’s negativity. They need to keep their spiritis up and need positive reinforcement.

  24. Yes, Pakistan often looks like an enormous tragedy waiting to happen, bw.

    I raised Egypt largely because its potential for explosion often gets ignored. The rumbling has been getting louder there for quite some time now, and the extent of repression by the Mubarak government seems to be becoming ever more evident. Not a good omen.

  27. LATIKAMBOURKE | 37 seconds ago
    KRudd ‘Called to arms by social media, they came out in droves. Everywhere…young people represented about a third of the cleanup force

  28. LATIKAMBOURKE |
    KRudd ‘they didn’t stay at home, on Facebook, with their anonymous friends across the globe. Instead, they sprung into action.’ #qldfloods

  30. I have noticed a divergence between the city news ltd papers (herald sun, daily telegraph and courier mail) and the australian lately. Its like the city papers are more closely i tune with its readers – who are getting sick of the relentless negativity.

    Neil Mitchell must have missed the memo because he has a massive whinge about the possiblity of a flood levy in todays Herald Sun

    Flood levy is nothing but a tax despite Julia Gillard’s focus on mateship

    THIS may surprise Kevin Rudd as he battles to accept that he is no longer prime minister.

    Julia Gillard has wiped his blood from her knife and revealed a new favourite word — mateship.

    Now, she may be about to turn it into a tax. That’s how the flood levy will be sold if it goes ahead. Not as a tax, which it is. Not as a slippery way to dodge sensible financial management, which it is, and not as a policy cop-out, which it certainly is.

    It will be marketed as a Mateship Payment, probably collected from people who can afford it who will be portrayed as fat cats because they have worked hard to make a dollar in life.

    We may even get an advertising campaign to convince those who pay they are doing the decent Aussie thing by helping to rebuild the houses and lives of flood victims. But they’ll have no option.

    If you believe her rhetoric, Gillard has converted to the principles of loyalty and will now stand by her mates rather than loitering behind them with an axe.

    What drivel!

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/flood-levy-is-nothing-but-a-tax/story-e6frfhqf-1225993905769

  31. Perhaps a clean up of the useless journos at the ABC could be a start

    ANNABELCRABB | 6 minutes ago
    Am compiling a list of possible budget cuts. Any suggestions?

  32. victoria

    Reading the piece by Syvret brought tears to my eyes, that someone in the media was putting it all together like the PBers.

  35. has the wheel finally turned against the Rabbott?

    The pagan notion of a “wheel of fortune” was so prominent in the pious Middle Ages. Chaucer used it throughout his Canterbury Tales.

    There would be a delicate irony is such a wheel was turning for Abbott.

  40. Lordy, lordy, lordy … I nearly choked on my organic muesli when I read that Syvret piece, so I quickly had sip of latte, and then did a spot of the old trantric to calm the shattered nerves.

    *hears distant music of knives being sharpened in the offices of Hockey, Turnbull, Robb and Bishop*

    As I noted yesterday, 2011 has not started well for Abbott.

  41. Paul Syvret is the best journalist the CM has. Unfortunatley it was announced over the weekend that the delightful Samantha Maiden will be joining their amazing team.

  46. We are Australians, we help each other out when the mud hits the fan and we tend to resent cheap politics intruding on getting the job done.

    Wow! Have just read the CM editorial.

    You wonder what Teresa Gambaro must be thinking about her party’s response to the floods…..

  48. Good letter in the SMH this morning from Chris Bowen correcting some of the nonsense in the recent article by that ratbag Paul Sheehan which has been previously mentioned here on PB.

    Humanitarian visa program blind to religion

    As someone who consistently tried to get the Howard government to pay more attention to the plight of Christians in Iraq and elsewhere, I found Paul Sheehan’s piece particularly bemusing (”As the left sides with Muslims, Christians search for support”, January 24).

    Australia has long prided itself on its global and non-discriminatory immigration program. So the suggestion that the government has ”turned Australia’s refugee program into a Muslim immigration program” is grossly incorrect.

    Humanitarian (refugee) visas are granted to people who are subject to persecution or gross human rights violations in their home countries. Australia’s program assesses people in terms of their humanitarian need and is based on available country information. It neither grants nor refuses entry to legitimate refugees on the basis of ethnicity, religion or political beliefs alone. Rather, it aims to respond flexibly to caseloads in greatest need.

    Last year, about one-third of visas in the offshore humanitarian program were granted to people from the Middle East – mostly people fleeing persecution in Iraq. In the past three years, more than 70 per cent of offshore humanitarian visa grants to Iraqis have been to Christians and other religious minorities.

    Chris Bowen Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Sydney

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