Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Nah not me dont want to go near essential i am happy here.

    night all not a fan of essential.
    that why i stay away till fridays then i take a peek.,
    the next news poll, now william that cannot be a poll to realy take notice of as 1/4 of the country have no homes no phones or dont care.

  2. [2793 vp
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
    Some idiot on ABC95 saying Julia is in trouble, has to negotiate.]

    has any one told him the ind. want the levy to stay for good.
    and i think adam brandt on sbs is just playing hard to get, dont know what he was waffling on about.
    did you all see the rail lines this so bad for the productity of the country as well getting produce to markets and the mining industry are the libs so agains business these days they dont want it to be hurried along by re building.
    menzies would turn over in his grave

  3. [can you explain this nude photo scenario?]

    On the main page of the news ltd website, ie, there is a box on the right about half way down that displays facebook friends of news ltd, a likebox. on facebook.

    In this box are displayed five friends, that rotate every few minutes or so, appeared to be the latest additions.

    The five displayed were mark, andy, lloyd tina and emma with pictures.

    Mark’s picture was of julia’s head photo shopped onto a nude body, could not miss the breasts or Julias face, click on the photo and it displayed a larger photo.


  4. [when does the chinese new year start]

    my say, chinese new year is on Thursday 3/2. family dinner feast ( 😀 ) is normally on the new year eve wed 2/2. And the red money packet is distributed the next 7 days from NY day.

  5. [2793 vp
    Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
    Some idiot on ABC95 saying Julia is in trouble, has to negotiate]

    all jokes aside about tone.

    it is the year of the Rabbit and we the people are going to be kinder to each other , os it is said of the year of the rabbit lets observe and take notice , to see if this happens.

    we can only live in hope , may be karma will come to those who do not want to help others no matter how its done.
    levies and donations ect. is the tall popply syndrome with some people
    1 to 5 dollars is laughable but also very sad. when one thinks of children going through rubbish in some countries and places like hati where no one seems to care.

  6. Been busy this afternoon but I just saw this thread with result about as expected. Hopefully the nervous nellies will not even think about backing down on the levy now, other than for the outcome of discussions on details with indies.

    Obvious question: where is Newspoll (apology if already discussed)?

    Good news: the number of Australians that agree with Abbott’s approach to the floods and political water polo over the levy are outnumbered by those repulsed by it. Hope for us yet.

  7. Phillip Williams live. Helicopter buzzing.

    What no one gets is (per Gusface) there is military command (pro Mub) and troops (anti Mub). If the police gets involved again, they are pro Mub, really nasty but cowards.

  8. My say, thank you for your best wishes.

    The Chinese dont give present as such for their NY. they give money (never stand between the Chinese and a bucket of money), and the money is usually put inside a red packet.

    Adult Children would give the red packet to the Parents. Parents/Uncles/Aunties etc normally give to the younger non adult children. Very Practical.

  9. vp,

    [Kevin: “Mabarek moving extremely slowly.”: ]

    Expected to hit landfall somewhere near Alexandrina.

    Strong winds expected but not much substance other than a little spit here and there! 😉

  10. I won’t be able to form an opinion about Egypt until Mesma has done her Googling and made a statement as Minister of Foreign Affairs in Waiting.

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