Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.
Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.
There will be a newspoll taken over the weekend about the flood levy. I am sure the Oz will run it on Tuesday.
Newspoll are overdue by historical standars aren’t they? So there should definitely be one
Morgan F2F polls have sat around the 52-54 percent for the ALP 2PP. Only the Dec figure was sub 50. It seems that the ALP have recovered from their worst polling.
WeWantPaul
I suppose that was my point regarding media coverage of Gillard vs Abbott. Gillard got some scrutiny and mixed coverage, but overall not bad except from her already known enemies. Likewise KK deserved to get bagged for her local politics driven remarks. I don’t see that as bias. The bias was the media not bagging Abbott (and Hockey) for their predictable opposing of everything, including the levy, with no positive alternative offered.
Madcyril
by the way they polled in the last two years, there should have been 2 polls by now.
Dio
I take your point that strictly speaking Gillard’s words did not translate to a levy on everyone. But if you wish to be strict, it could be argued that the other cuts in spending will affect everyone, so in the wider, sense, everyone pays for the flood relief, though to varying degree.
Cue ML with “this is the inevitable post disaster bounce”. And fair’s fair he did say that yesterday 🙂
[So in effect some people were deceived by real estate agents and the Brisbane City Council allowed inappropriate zoning of flood prone land.
Class action perhaps?]
Definitely. I hope they can prove it.
[Cue ML with “this is the inevitable post disaster bounce”. And fair’s fair he did say that yesterday]
..and here he is!
actually I see this as a correction from what I think was a historically bad position in the previous couple of F2F polls. As many here would know I knock 3-4% off the Morgan F2F poll to get an idea of where we are so this is still around 48-49%:51-52%.
If Newspoll comes out on Mon I am guessing 50:50 with a bounce in JG approval and PPM but not much change in PV for the next couple of rounds.
Gos: I posted a list of Howard bounces after the disasters in his reign- they are a pretty convincing constant actually, but you are free to disagree with the phenomenon if you don’t think they happen!
[there should have been 2 polls by now.]
Nah – they would have shown Abbott in a bad light. At least with this levy and the hooha about it the OO may get what it wants – a better poll for Abbott so let’s get Newspoll out and about again.
Socrates
I did think of that but I wasn’t going to let on about it.
Cash for Clunkers and Fantasy Camp Coal getting cut will ease the pain of the levy for me!
Here is the link to the Morgan Poll, taken over January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011. Labor is 52/48 2PP (up 2%) and primary vote is 40.5% (up 2% from January 8/9, 2011), behind the L-NP 41.5% (down 2.5%). This was the two weekends immediately after the floods in Brisbane.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4624/
Dio 4261
I agree – cash for clunkers was a known dud that should never have been tried. Clean Coal Con Terminology was the same. The only program I was sorry to se go was the solar hot water support being capped. Both economically and technically, solar hot water is quite efficient, so that was a pity. The rest were fair IMO.
JAck the Insider sticks it to the misanthrope commenters.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillard_comes_out_fighting/#commentsmore
Where is the Australian Tea Party? I want to see some hillarious anti-tax marches.
[So in effect some people were deceived by real estate agents and the Brisbane City Council allowed inappropriate zoning of flood prone land.
Class action perhaps?]
I am not expert in this area, but strictly speaking I don’t think any new rezoning was involved. The flood prone land had been subdivided and developed for years. But it was the redevelopment into newer, more expensive, adn more numerous townhouses that has worsened the problem. The hydraulics of the Brisbane River was thoroughly studied in the 1970s and 80s after the floods, so I see little excuse for that.
I don’t know the legal obligations of real estate agents, but just because they are not professionals acting under some code of ethics shouldn’t get them off the hook IMO. If they knowingly withheld information to gain financially then surely it is some form of deceptive conduct under the Trade Practices Act?
[Where is the Australian Tea Party? I want to see some hillarious anti-tax marches.]
At this time of day? Probably at Centrelink (oh no he di-n’t!)
My Oh and I are VERY upset with this Levy!!!
We have already donated to the Queensland flood appeal, to help individuals and/or small business and/or farmers to get back on their feet!!!
We were looking to be able to contribute to the re-building/repair/re-placement of infrastructure that ALL Australians use/need in a modern society.
We have been denied our right to contribute to this wonderful piece of Nation Re-building, just because we each have an income BELOW $50,000.00. (Mine is approx $30,000.00/OH approx $7,000.00)
This is a disgrace…….AND IT‘S ALL JULIA’S FAULT…………..
To get over this case of blatant DISCRIMINATION…..we’ve decided to make another donation equivalent to 0.5% of our TOTAL taxable income…..
TAKE THAT JULIA………with our blessing and good wishes…….
Markjs
That is pretty much how it played out in my house too.
OH: its good that they are helping the people in queensland. How much do we pay each week for the levy?
Me: About 1 or 2 dollars for me. Nothing for you.
OH: Thats not enough. We will have to make a bigger donation
BK @ 4233
Only 10? Slacker 👿
markjs
Splendid contribution. The trouble is the whingers just wouldn’t gert ti!
Thanks for the support, bemused!
3AWNeilMitchell Neil Mitchell
Extraordinary reaction to my Gillard interview. The real point is whether the public will trust her not to waste the money
No Mitchell……the real point is that you are a right wing myrmidon and Bully Boy…
BK @ 4250
Curiously, when I did my MBA, ABC Learning was held up as an exemplar and a lot of students did case studies on it.
None seemed to pick it as shonky. So much for a lot of MBA’s 😆
Aristotle: Yes, I see people alleging that Koch was tougher on Julia than Hockey this morning…..maybe Julia should join Kev & Sloppy in the Sunrise Family? 😉
BK…the whingers can F*…….er……Go Away!!!….
The Punch asks
“Was this Gillard’s worst ever media performance?”
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/gillard-on-sunrise1/
I ask
Is that the worst post on The Punch ever?
Kinda think Julia should avoid SUNRISE, because Kochie is more a Rudd man.
Kochie didn’t have a good morning. He even asserted to Hockey that the NBN hadn’t started rolling out! Hockey had to correct him
b_g tks for the link to Jack the Insiders column. Hard hitting excellent article. Love the way he leaps in and gives the idiots a serve. Most of the comments from readers in favor of the levy.
[“Was this Gillard’s worst ever media performance?”]
Okay, even if you didn’t like how she performed, it certainly wasn’t her worse.
Love this comment from JTI
[This is $1.2 trillion economy. Kitchen table economic principles don’t really have a place. The country has one of the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the world. We should celebrate how lucky we are but instead – and this has become a national malaise, we moan, gripe and whine. We know very little about what we’re talking about but utter our opinions with such dire gravity. When experts do arrive, we ignore them. If you wanted to learn something, take a look at the UK’s debt to GDP ratio in the financial years 1988-89 and 89-90 (Thatcher’s last years in power) and compare them with Australia’s now.
]
worst*
She was worse during the election campaign, with the “real Julia” nonsense.
Intersting to look at the history of the govt-debt to gdp ratio of the US.
The US is clearly all reaganomics. Total trainwreck.
[
Swan says Warwick McKibbon’s opposition to the #floodlevy is another in a series of ‘political statements.’
]
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
[She was worse during the election campaign, with the “real Julia” nonsense.]
Actually I think the bland, porcelain Julia of the first week was the worst.
[
Swan on Warwick McKibbon ‘He doesn’t speak for the Reserve Bank Board at all and that’s been made very clear in recent times.’ #floodlevy
]
http://twitter.com/latikambourke
[Curiously, when I did my MBA, ABC Learning was held up as an exemplar and a lot of students did case studies on it.
None seemed to pick it as shonky. So much for a lot of MBA’s]
bemused – could that have been because their God, Howard, held up ABC as a pillar of enterprise and ingenuity for young entrepreneurs!! It helped that so many of the Directors or those involved were of his political persuasion too.
BTW – is Christine Milne married and does she have any children?
BH @ 4289
All true. I had my suspicions but never really looked into it. I am surprised no-one picked up on flaws in the business model though.
As someone involved in the Make Poverty History campaign, I couldn’t let this comment go by:
[Evan — our foreign aid is agreed with the UN … and besides, it is a sign of our generosity as a people.]
Comparatively speaking, Australia is not that generous when it comes to international aid.
According to 2009 figures (sourced from OECD) Australia ranked 16 out of 22 of the world’s wealthiest countries.
Australia is still only one of six countries that has not yet set up a schedule to donate 0.7% of Gross National Income (GNI), the UN international figure agreed to in 2002.
Australia’s aid spending of approximately $4.3 billion for 2010-11 currently sits at 0.33% GNI. This is far below the average of 0.48% (OECD member countries) and the UN international target of 0.7%.
The current Labor Government estimates that by 2015-16 the annual aid figure will reach around 0.5 per cent of GNI.
Australia also inflates its aid figures by including expenditure that is not focused on poverty alleviation, and often reflects the political and commercial interests of Australia rather than the interests of recipient countries.
Sources:
1. http://www.poverty.com/internationalaid.html
2. http://www.ausaid.gov.au/makediff/default.cfm
3. http://www.aidwatch.org.au/book/export/html/16
4. http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2010-02-17/rich-countries-have-no-excuse-broken-aid-promises
This has been Kristina Kennealy’s finest day in office. She’s really done some good.
Calls and SMSs are flooding into the ABC in support of the Levy, and bashing KK around the head with a wet sandbag. Laughter can be heard across the little suburban valleys and neighbourhoods from Rouse Hill to Roseberry as KK tells us she’s going to bring up exempting Sydneysiders from the full levy at the next COAG (about two weeks before she’s kicked out of office). Richard Glover and James on ABC radio are making jokes about only being able to pay for three courses at the Rockpool instead of the usual five, or not being able to afford to get the Porsche washed and waxed every three days, Sydney is doing it so tough. What next? Will little Nicholas at The King’s School have to wear last year’s rugby boots? Will Jemima have to go without a new iPod this year?
“No greater love hath a NSW Labor politician than to lay down her political life for her Federal mates”
Just back from Tassie…
hate to seem like I’m Green bashing (again) but noticed that Milne and Brown share offices in Hobart.
Does any other party of any note have its Leader and Deputy from the same state?
In general, I thought this was something to be avoided.
More generally, struck by how poor so many Tassie towns seem in comparison with Vic.
ABC *Learning* ? was a house of cards the more it grew. Just one feature was that related party companies grossed up the amount they paid to buy other child minding centres. The *difference* was then used amongst other things to service their rapidly increasing debts.
It became a ponzi scheme the more it grew by taking over other centres. Lazy incompetent bankers sailed over the cliff with the company, although *some* institutional investors just got out be the skin of their teeth.
Joe Hockeys pet economist (Chris Joye) gives Gillard A BIG thumbs up.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/43308.html
[I am surprised no-one picked up on flaws in the business model though.]
I was too, bemused, altho there was talk in a nearby town that problems existed with the ABC Centre a few years before everything fell apart but because Groves was so well connected most of the talk was kept in check.
It didn’t surprise me when the thing went bottom up but the worst part was the new Labor Govt. having to drop everything and help the centres and parents before they could even get started on governing properly. Gillard did a magnificent job with that but it meant a lot of money had to be spent unexpectedly.
A bad business model not checked by the authorities while Howard was in Govt – why not. As with other things the Howard legacy is to be protected at all costs.
Will be intrigued to see what PVO has to say on Contrarians in a few minutes.
Sometimes he and his ‘guests’ are so pro Lib I want to vomit — then occasionally he remembers he is an academic and not a shock jock and is actually objective.
Which will he be today? Any bets?
madcyril
Thanks, I am pleased to hear Swan saying that. The criticisms of Warwick McKibbon are certainly valid. He is speaking as Warwick McKibbon, citizen, not a reserve bank board member. In the sense that his mandate is to only be concerned about pressures on interest rates and monetary policy, not fiscal policy, he should be pleased that the levy removes pressure for govenrment borrowing.
Are you there, vic? I’m going to try to watch Agenda.
Off topic but a friend just sent me a fabulous photo of the sunset on Australia Day. It was taken from Windy Point and made me feel very nostalgic for those wonderful Adelaide sunsets over the beach areas.
We’re in a secluded valley so never see sunsets properly.