Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,344 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. Dee @ 4190

    When we lived in Victoria there used to be a sex talk back program on around 10.30.
    Now that was hilarious!

    How right you are! I found out about it off my teenage son who used to listen to it with his mates and they would call in with all manner of strange conditions. 😆

  4. Dio 4188

    That is what the flood relief fund is for, plus they get government emergency assistance. This may amount to over $10K in cases, but not enough to build a new home. The tricky bit will be (I expect) telling some people that they won’t be allowed to rebuild houses in very flood prone and unprotectable locations.

    BCC also had a scheme where they woudl buy back the blocks of people with very floodprone land in Brisbane. There was almost no take up before the floods. If it still operates I dare say that will change.

    BCC is a very large Council – one million + residents and a budget larger than Tasmania. They also have considerable means to assist individuals.

  5. [What I regret is there is no “paranormal” talk radio show (or at least none that I am aware of.) Those people are always hilarious to listen to and, I bet, a hoot to call into and bait.]

    Oh, they’re out there, alright. Yes… They’re Out There!! None broadcasting from Australia that I’m aware of, but you could try these as a sampler:

    AudioRealm: BUFO Paranormal and UFO Radio

    “UFOs, Paranormal, Mysteries, Multi-Dimensional Realities, Mysticism, Prophecies.” 😀 Listen online:

    http://sc3.audiorealm.com:10164/listen.pls

    —

    BBS Radio
    http://www.bbsradio.com/

    —

    And, I think you’ll find this one more “down to earth”:

    Freethought Radio: “The #1 Internet Radio Station for Freethinkers, Skeptics, Humanists, Liberals, Brights, Universists, Atheists, Agnostics, and Naturalists.”

    http://freethoughtradio.com/

    (Good political content too)

  6. bemused
    [How right you are! I found out about it off my teenage son who used to listen to it with his mates and they would call in with all manner of strange conditions.]
    The intro music was ‘Sexual Healing’ by Marvin Gaye.

  7. I too thought Gillard’s performace yesterday was one of her best: clear, confident and down to earth. I don’t agree with all the complaints of media bias. The usual right wing hacks were biased, some were critical of elements of the package that were politicised, but many were reasonable. Even the AFR today had a relatively complimentary editorial.
    [And look what immediately happens: Abbott sounds like an unconfident, toothless tiger.]
    This is where any bias was really on display. Abbott was indeed very weak, and offered no specific alternative, despite saying he would oppose a demonstrably needed program. What is Abbott suggesting, more social welfare cuts? Or leave Qld unrepaired?? Abbott deserved a blast from any impartial reporter, but got very little.

  11. blue_green
    Thanks for the link

    [While some economists argue the levy will dampen consumer spending further, Mr Bloxham does not see it that way.

    “The key thing to keep in mind is that it will be taking from one group and giving to another, and that other group will be spending probably all of it,” he said.

    “So it will be taking from middle-income households and it will be shifting a small amount of funds to Queensland where the economy has been a bit weaker.”]

  12. Socrates @ 4204

    Dio 4188

    That is what the flood relief fund is for, plus they get government emergency assistance. This may amount to over $10K in cases, but not enough to build a new home. The tricky bit will be (I expect) telling some people that they won’t be allowed to rebuild houses in very flood prone and unprotectable locations.

    BCC also had a scheme where they woudl buy back the blocks of people with very floodprone land in Brisbane. There was almost no take up before the floods. If it still operates I dare say that will change.

    BCC is a very large Council – one million + residents and a budget larger than Tasmania. They also have considerable means to assist individuals.

    There was an interesting letter in the SMH on 25 Jan which raised issues of concern.

    What payouts? I own a townhouse at Graceville in Brisbane, one of 90 in a complex, all of which were inundated, none of which was insured for flood.

    I cannot begin to imagine the number of people in the same position, many of whom cannot afford to refurbish and rerent their properties, thus depriving many tenants of housing.

    That will place further burdens on public housing and the government coffers, as will those of us who will now be on a government pension.

    When we bought the property in 2000 there was no mention of possible flood plain problems. We have since discovered the real estate agent is not bound to disclose this information.

    On further investigation we have discovered there were protests about our development in 1998, which were dismissed by Brisbane City Council.

    So in effect some people were deceived by real estate agents and the Brisbane City Council allowed inappropriate zoning of flood prone land.

    Class action perhaps?

  13. Dio
    [If the levy is so “everyone can do their share” and “mateship”, why are 40% not contributing?]
    Then why not pensioners? I have no problem with the levy being limited to those who can afford it. The reality is that many peopld in society make just enough to get by, and the rest of us have to subsidise them. I accept that. The alternative is America – where the wealthy pay less tax, but the poor beg. I only wish we had a better way of disciminating between those on middle incomes who were retirees in comfortable circumstances, and those working on lower eages struggling to pay for a house. I wouldn’t have minded if the lower rate hadn’t kicked in till $70K, but I realise that it is only paid on the amount above $50K, so the actual impact on them is very small.

  18. [ I don’t agree with all the complaints of media bias. The usual right wing hacks were biased, some were critical of elements of the package that were politicised, but many were reasonable.]
    Socrates
    I think we PBers are worn down by those anti-ALP whingers in the media who tend to be the loudest & most prominent. Its damn frustrating.

  19. bemused

    Yes that is the group I feel sorry for. Especially those who moved to Brisbane after 1974 and would have had no idea of the past history of some of those suburbs. There was a regrettable period when the flood data was not even published by BCC. So the buyer really had no chance.

    If you add up the flood relief fund and split it per household they may get up to $20K plus govt assistance, but that is peanuts relative to buying a house in Brisbane now. I think BCC and the developers may well have a case to answer, because a lot of money was made selling that land.

  22. Jack the insider

    [One might question if the levy itself was needed. Indeed the Opposition’s view is that the Commonwealth’s costs in reconstruction, a figure loosely put at $5 billion, may be found from further spending cuts. But this is not an option for Gillard. The Government has to be seen to be doing more, otherwise the blood-letting that occurred in Queensland in last year’s federal election would end up looking like a mere needle stick injury.

    Many commentators have pointed out the paucity of the Opposition’s logic. The Howard Government was levy heavy. There was the gun buy back levy (the Medicare levy was increased by 1.5 per cent to 1.7 per cent across the board to fund the scheme), a levy on plane tickets when Ansett went south, an 11 cent-a-litre levy on milk that lasted a decade and a levy on domestic sugar sales to partially fund the Sugar Industry Reform Program.

    But all of that is history and pales into insignificance against Tony Abbott’s paid parental leave policy. Should Tony Abbott someday find his way into the Lodge, companies with taxable income exceeding $5 million will pay a levy of 1.5 per cent to fund what is the most extravagant paid parental scheme in the world. As a marker, any company that permanently employs twenty or more people would almost certainly be up for it. So we’re not just talking Woolworths and BHP Billiton here.

    The policy is despised by employers, most women and more significantly, great herds of the Coalition parliamentary room.

    We shouldn’t forget the genesis of the policy. Faced with internal polling that said Abbott was on the bugle with as many as two thirds of women across Australia, a cabal of senior Liberals, including Abbott and Julie Bishop, cobbled it together.

    Abbott’s paid parental leave was announced on March 8, 2009—International Women’s Day—without the approval of the shadow cabinet or the party room. The following day, Abbott apologised to a joint party room meeting.

    “Sometimes it’s better to ask for forgiveness than permission,” Abbott told his colleagues.

    It was dumb policy then and it is even dumber now because the Government will mercilessly mock Abbott. How can he oppose a levy on flood devastated Queensland while supporting one for mum’s to be who earn $150,000 a year?

    The Opposition could attack Gillard’s levy effectively if Abbott wised up and ditched this ludicrous policy.

    Gillard’s levy and spending cut announcements are all moot if she can’t get them through the parliament. She will have to fight for them in the parliament and in the general electorate. With this challenge comes the opportunity to change the manner and style of her leadership.

    For so long now, Gillard has appeared waxen and ill at ease. She has struggled with the burdens of leadership; unsure as to how to proceed, uncertain as to her own identity. In the wake of the awful flooding events across eastern Australia but with much of the heavy lifting still to be done, perhaps she has finally brushed off the spin doctors, the urgers and the whisperers.

    Now she has a chance to do what she does best: scrap, brawl and fight.

    Fighters can get beaten, of course but Gillard at least shows signs that she’d rather go down swinging than staggering to the next election before chucking in the towel. ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/gillard_comes_out_fighting

  23. [If the levy is so “everyone can do their share” and “mateship”, why are 40% not contributing?]
    That 40% of the population are those who are struggling & most likely to feel the full force of the rise in the cost of living due to the floods.

  24. [perhaps she has finally brushed off the spin doctors, the urgers and the whisperers.

    Now she has a chance to do what she does best: scrap, brawl and fight.]

    Go, girl go. Give them heaps of SHIrT

  25. Re Gillard and the Levy
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Yesterday,at the Press Club it would have been a good clever tactic to have had some vsual display to show just how small the amount of the levy will be for most taxpayers…….if at all!

    A poster showing 85cents a week for a person on $60.000 a year…perhaps a handfull of small change might have been a clever tactic…and the media loves trivia.!!

    ..perhaps she could have handed the small change to someone in the audience..the media loves trivia and stunts…and it would have put it all in context !
    Politicians should use the tactics used by any good teacher…see and remember !

  27. [Mr Bloxham says the bigger part of the Government’s announcement is its attempt to reduce spending on programs that may have not been economically beneficial.

    “I’m glad that the Government didn’t decide to let the budget bottom line slip. I think that’s important in an economy that is already operating at full capacity,” he said.

    Mr Bloxham says economic growth is expected to ramp up further by the middle of this year, which is something the Government will have to carefully manage.]

    b_g – thanks for that. Pity that the media found it necessary to talk to the negative blokes initially and belatedly bring out the positive ones. All designed to get the mob stirred up and then say later ‘but we presented both sides of the story’ Urgghh!!

    I hope JG stays fired up – I remember how the punters reacted when she got mad with the media during the election campaign. They liked it. Stupid, I know, but they think it’s somehow a sign of strength.

  28. Talking about floods & levy.

    The Govt has the moral high ground. It should stand and stay there. Otherwise, it will be drowned and washed away.

  29. [Michael Pascoe is the latest “economist” to suddenly join the “So what’s wrong with deficits?” club. After all those years praising Costello and his surpluses, surpluses were unimportant all along.

    Who knew?]

    Indeed. Remarkable how silent they have been in the past whenever Abbott has raised the threat of deficits under Labor, too.

  30. “If he opposes the levy but also uses the rhetoric that victims of the flood (incl. those who have lost too much) will be squeezed harder by the taxman,”

    I am not following that, how are the victims being squeezed by the taxman?

    On the more general comments there is no need to raise the whole journo issue as far as I am concerned. Those sorts of exchanges take place. People see what others post at the time and can make their own judgment calls.

    I’d never encourage the suppression of alternate views. My point views though are influenced by the record of the posters. If they are Liberals who pop up with criticisms but not alternatives it is surely fair to follow that up.

    ML says he is in favour of the levy so fair enough. Dovif as has happened previously has vanished when asked to come up with alternatives to the policy he is criticising.

    Again with Vera and Evan I have no axe to grind with their feelings about how Kevin Rudd was dumped. It does seem though that subsequently any criticism of the government is made against that backdrop. Again I am genuinely interested in what they think should have been done instead of the current policies they are criticising.

  31. [Dee

    How is the clean up going for you?]
    We’re OK but the daughter & OH although with one of the better insurers, Suncorp, they are having a few hassles.

  39. [“Perhaps a bit more fine-tuning, mindful that families in Sydney on $70,000 or $80,000 are in a different set of circumstances than families in Adelaide or Perth on that same income,” she said. ]

    Kenneally doesn’t realise that Darwin has the countries highest rents.

  41. [If we’re all in this together, how come only the rich pay?]
    How about the obvious answer Andrew. Some people can’t bloody afford it unlike yourself.

  43. Kk was making a cheap political point you know like Abbott does 60 times a day – like Howard did whenever he wanted – I would like to see th same kind of vigor applied consistently across parties and time or it will lead me to think.

  46. [ALP (52%, up 2%) now ahead of L-NP (48% down 2%)

    Finding No. 4624 – This Face-to-Face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,824 electors.: January 28, 2011
    ]

    Thats over the last two weeks. During flood and after flood.

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