Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Another empty and meaningless week with no Newspoll. Essential Research however offers us its usual weekly poll, this one showing the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred narrowing from 52-48 to 51-49. However, there has been little change on the primary vote: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point, with the Greens (11 per cent) and others (7 per cent) up one. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poorly; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

Also covered were “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” and the best party to handle those issues, which Essential Research last canvassed in a poll about six weeks after the election. The main change on the former is “ensuring a quality education for all children”, which for some reason has gone down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent. On the latter, the report does not provide figures from the October 2010 survey for easy comparison, but you can find them here. Given that the voting intention figure has only changed from 51-49 in Labor’s favour to 51-49 against, Labor’s across-the-board deterioration is rather surprising. They have gone backwards on every measure, most markedly on fair taxation and population growth (down seven points) and political leadership, interest rates and asylum seekers (down six points). Tellingly, this has not translated into gains for the Coalition, with “don’t know” taking up most of the slack.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,344 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [Has Julie Bishop or Malcolm Turnbull said anything about the levy?]
    Nah!
    But every other drongo on the opposition benches have.

  2. Paul Murray, formerly on 2MMM, about to join 2UE – I guess you could add him to the list of “non Abbott supporting” radio announcers.

  4. Finally got around to reading this article linked to earlier.
    Angry Gillard blasts flood levy claims

    Needed a bit of editing though to correct some falsehoods.

    In a fiery interview on radio 3Aw this morning, the Prime Minister today insisted the introduction of the flood levy for those earning over $50,000 a year was in the best interests of Australia’s flood-ravaged communities and the economy.

    It comes amid proven malicious and false allegations that Labor has blown billions of dollars on failed projects such as the home insulation scheme and the rort-riddled school halls program, and was now turning to hard-working Australians to pick up the bill.

  5. On Paul Bongiorno.

    Yes, he is still at Ten. He does the evening news political reports. He is, in my view, the best political TV reporter. Hugh Riminton is pretty good, too. And they’re both at Ten.

    Riminton has moved to do the 6pm show with George Negus.

    Bongiorno and Riminton also share “Meet the Press”.

  6. [I think he has been on holidays but was on Channel 10 Brisbane last night. A fair summary as usual.]

    I wonder how long Bonge will last with the new ownership? Is Sarah Murdoch the beginning of big changes?

  7. [I wonder how long Bonge will last with the new ownership? Is Sarah Murdoch the beginning of big changes?]

    BH

    I’m not sure. The regular co-host Carrie Bickmore lost her husband to cancer shortly after Christmas. They acknowledged this on air a couple of weeks ago, and said Carrie would be back on air in February.

    I don’t know whether this is still the case, but I think Sarah Murdoch is a fill in.

  8. To those wondering why so many people were singing the praises of the Gillard govt yesterday, this is why:

    It’s the first time the Gillard government actually showed real strong policy leadership. Not tokenism, not negotiated policy, not focus group tested policy but actually came up with an idea they believed was necessary to fix a problem, even though the idea risks being unpopular. She’s also standing her ground on it and retorting back at its critics for once.

    And look what immediately happens: Abbott sounds like an unconfident, toothless tiger. More like someone of the Beazley mould, than the Rudd one. Yes, he could probably drum up the numbers (at least in the Senate) to prevent it from ever passing but if this rhetoric keeps up, all that blocking it will do is paint themselves as obstructionists who’d rather play politics than help flood victims.

  11. [Re the Mitchell I/V thanks for those reports. Mitchell was once fairly independent, almost seeming a moderate compared with the Sydney shock Jocks. But Howard won him over with that invitation to the Bush BBC at the Lodge, and he’s been in their camp ever since.]
    Mitchell was & still is a Liberal party supporter. He played a major part in getting Kennett’s popularity up.

    Vera
    What PBers have done is prove the point that online polls are tripe. Delete cookies & off you vote again. That’s what we were having fun with.
    Now, one is mightily suspicious as to why the question was asked in the first place.
    More than likely the station was inundated with complaints. 🙂

  12. Why are people so upset about talk radio hosts? They are there to provide an echo chamber for their callers. ie. those who need someone to shout their opinions at.

    For best talk radio, listen to the late night stuff. That’s when the drunks, meth-heads and crazies start calling in.

  15. bemused@4153 – I sent said journo the BER and HIP pieces from Poss and Orgill and some advice that both may help said journo keep her articles factual in future.

    Loved your reworking of the second paragraph

  17. 4160

    getting support for kennett prior to the 1992 election in victoria wasnt too difficult due to the dire state of the economiy in victoria, it was his arrogance that turned a lot of people against him in the end, similar to what happened to brumby a few months back.

    i just think that mitchell likes getting under the collar of anyone who goes on his show

  19. [What I regret is there is no “paranormal” talk radio show]

    I heard they had to shut up shop due to unforseen circumstances.

  21. [Tony Wright on Adelaide ABC Radio was very negative about the levy. There is a great selfishness in our community. The days of mateship have long gone.]
    Toorak Toff
    Wright is a boring, self-opinionated windbad!

  22. “2GB this morning is wall to wall anti-Gillard – not great for Labor.”

    And the difference from the other 364 days of the year would be?

    2GB and all the stations like it are pathetice. And they know it. They have an audience to pander to and that’s what they do. Tell brain dead people what they want to hear. They like to tell their audience that they are players but they don’t have any pull whatsoever with government.

  23. [The regular co-host Carrie Bickmore lost her husband to cancer shortly after Christmas. They acknowledged this on air a couple of weeks ago, and said Carrie would be back on air in February.]

    She will still be hurting badly poor girl. I hope PaulB stays – a good voice in the wilderness of tv political reporting. As Ari says, Paul is one of the good guys.

  25. [Why are people so upset about talk radio hosts? They are there to provide an echo chamber for their callers. ie. those who need someone to shout their opinions at.]

    Well that’s part of it. The entertainment, showman, reinforcement part of playing to the audience.

    But as you know there are other hosts who fall unabashedly into the ‘activist’ camp, who we may, for the sake of discussion, class as rabble-rousers for a political agenda. We don’t need to name names, they’re larger than life as it is, and besides, the less publicity they get the better IMO. 😉

    Now, so far today we’ve got, of those who aren’t conspicuously in the pro-Abbott camp:

    Chris Clark

    Mark Kennedy

    Paul Murray (thanks e14)

    Paul Bongiorno

    Hugh Rimminton

    … Any others who should be noted?

  29. [Wright is a boring, self-opinionated windbad!]

    Hear hear, BK. He was on Sky with Phil Coorey the other day. Both from the same stable (Fairfax) but what a difference in attitude. Coorey determined to be balanced in his answers but Wright showed he is working for the wrong outfit. He’d do well at limitednoos.

  30. BH

    I agree with both of your statements. I was shocked when I heard he had passed away just after Christmas, but he had been struggling with cancer for about ten years. She has a small child, so he will be of great comfort to her.

    As for Paul, as you say, he is a good voice in the wilderness, and I wish there were more like him, telling the truth. He is definately one of the good guys.

  31. [victoria
    Posted Friday, January 28, 2011 at 1:37 pm | Permalink

    b-g

    how serious is the cyclone warning?]

    Probably will fizzle. Good reminder that cyclones can head south a bit though.

  32. BH @ 4164

    bemused@4153 – I sent said journo the BER and HIP pieces from Poss and Orgill and some advice that both may help said journo keep her articles factual in future.

    Loved your reworking of the second paragraph

    Thanks for that. I am flattered.

    Rather a minimalist approach though, there is a lot more I could have fixed.

    Good idea to send that stuff from Poss to the journo. The Hawke and Orgill reports are also on the web. I wonder if any journos have bothered to read them? Probably not. No pictures to colour in with their crayons. 👿

  33. Just watched Gillard’s interview with Koch on Sunrise this morning.

    Again I thought she did well. Koch I thought was rude, constantly interrupting or talking over the top of her.

    The point about cutting foreign aid (one that Mitchell made as well) to pay for the floods is a nonsense. Australia is one of the richest nations on earth and thinking about reducing our assistance to more needy nations belies a narrowness of mind and meanness of spirit that is breathtaking.

  34. [As for Paul, as you say, he is a good voice in the wilderness, and I wish there were more like him, telling the truth. He is definately one of the good guys.]

    Even when he pans something the Govt. has done he is never rude or aggressive. It makes his comments more authentic.

    I’ve begun to laugh at the aggressive journos because it’s all about them and nothing else. I thought the name of the game was to impress the reader, listener, viewer but apparently not.

  36. I ventured back to the Herald Sun reader comments today (I am a sucker for punishment!). People are still saying why should they pay a levy for people’s homes being flooded. They have already made a donation for this. Why a levy as well?
    The govt need to get to emphasis that the levy is to pay for infrastructure that is the govt responsibility.

  40. [For best talk radio, listen to the late night stuff. That’s when the drunks, meth-heads and crazies start calling in.

    Likewise for here!]
    When we lived in Victoria there used to be a sex talk back program on around 10.30.
    Now that was hilarious!

  41. [i just think that mitchell likes getting under the collar of anyone who goes on his show]
    Nah!
    Mitchell was in the Kennett fold by way of family.

  42. Andrew Bolt doesn’t seem too happy with how things are going for the PM and the flood levy

    [
    I don’t think this is going well, yet Gillard may yet have the last laugh. The levy is designed to save Gillard, not Queensland, and could do it if it helps her meet her real objective – to return the Budget to surplus by 2012-13, just before the election. This will help her to fool voters into thinking she’s a good economic manager, after all, By then, she hopes, they’ll have forgotten the pain of the levy, which is largely felt by the more affluent Liberal-leaning anyway. And the many marginal seats of Queensland will be reminded of the big spend. Win, win, win, despite the waste, waste, waste.

    Truly, voters deserve the governments they elect.
    ]

    Suffer in your jocks Bolt! 😆

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/

  43. [People are still saying why should they pay a levy for people’s homes being flooded. They have already made a donation for this. Why a levy as well?]

    victoria – I, for one, don’t believe it. If all these people had made donations then the fund would be much bigger than it is. Compared with the bushfires, etc. the amount collected so far appears very small.

    I am hearing a whole lot of furphies told about the donations. Maybe they consider putting a couple of $s in a collection box at the supermarket is enough of a donation. That for some is a lot but those are not the people who would be complaining loudly as they probably won’t be paying the levy.

  44. things seem to have gone very quiet on the anti-levy front

    twitter has dried up, the online editions of newspapers are moving on to other matters

    abbott et al no-where to be seen……

    just a few ‘economists” shooting the breeze, which is boring as batshit

  45. OK, so Madam K2 thinks it is not fair for Sydney. It looks like Perth is going to be hit by a cyclone. What a bout a big earthquake for Sydney, 👿 , so everyone will have a disaster of their own. for goodness sake, i live in Syderney.

    [Levy unfair, says Keneally – NSW Premier Kristina Keneally wants changes to the national flood levy, saying it should take into account the high cost of living in Sydney.

    Under the one-off levy taxpayers would pay between $1 to $5 a week to rebuild flood-affected areas.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/keneally-wants-changes-to-flood-levy-20110128-1a7qo.html

  46. Methinks Jules has had enough of the MSM commentators. She aint going to take it anymore. The glove is off. Go, girl go. 😡

  47. Seems the Young Libs are getting tired of voting

    Neil and Julia

    Do you think Neil Mitchell was ‘disrespectful’ to Prime Minister Julia Gillard on Friday?

    Yes

    65%
    No

    34%

  48. [What I regret is there is no “paranormal” talk radio show

    I heard they had to shut up shop due to unforseen circumstances.]
    Ha, Ha… 😆
    A friend of ours in Melbourne used to run a radio show on the paranormal & all things different, including puzzling scientific questions.

  50. [To those wondering why so many people were singing the praises of the Gillard govt yesterday, this is why:

    It’s the first time the Gillard government actually showed real strong policy leadership.]

    TSOP:

    You could well be right here. Her performance at the NPC was much better than her recent efforts. Perhaps she has decided to ditch the Hawker Britton advice and just go back to her old self. If she sticks with this through thick and thin and gets people to change their minds I will certainly have more respect for her. She may well get a boost in Qld which is bigger than potential negatives elsewhere. We shall see.

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