The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.
[Essential report 51 coalition 49 ALP]
Interesting. No real movement.
It may be too early to see it break either way. (Remember, it could break Abbott’s way too – he has been making a big push in the last few days)
Reversing these figures:
72% don’t want the NBN stopped, including more than half of Coalition voters.
76% want a return to surplus
78% don’t want a Levy.
So if they’re going to return to Surplus, keep the NBN, but have no Levy, what’s the rub? It seems most want more Budget cuts. I would hazard a guess that the want cuts as long as they’re not affected.
Still seems like Abbott’s had a win, at least on the Budget Cuts issue.
Is there a better link to the Essential poll that shows what actual qauestions were asked? The link at the Stump goes to last weeks.
We don’t even know if “Catherine” is a real person as she claims she is too scared of retributions to give her full name.
But well spotted, Fulvio, just the same.
[72% don’t want the NBN stopped, including more than half of Coalition voters.
76% want a return to surplus]
Well these two are good for Labor. JG is going back to surplus in a couple of years and has been copping flack for saying so.
BB
It looks like a respondent could only give one answer. And the solution the Govt announced was not one of them.
I wonder where the missing 16% would have voted with a definate choice on the table?
Not Essentials fault, but this stuff tells us almost nothing.
What percentage went for making massive cuts to the budget?
Confessions
[The link at the Stump goes to last weeks.]
No wonder I’m so confused 🙂
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Posted a similar comment about the NBN on the Stump. It will get reported though as four out five people opposed to levy, one in three want NBN scrapped.
Okay, so it seems it doesn’t matter what the questions were.
BB
The Rabbott has not won anything.
Confessions
The website I go to is essentialmedia.com.au, but it still has last week’s up.
[HOWESPAUL | 21 seconds ago
Will be joining @BenFordham with Andrew Bolt on 2GB at 4.20 for the first of our regular Monday politics spot]
Geez he is not happy enough just having Kroger as his confidant now we are getting a regular weekly spot with Fordham and Bolt!
Give me a break this bloke is a self promoting smart a*se. His political agenda is what is best for Howes and whatever it takes.
The Essential is dated Jan 24 … before the levy.
[The Essential is dated Jan 24 … before the levy.]
Then it is worse than useless.
Dee, doesn’t the contempt and odium of all right thinking people count for anything? 🙂
[The Essential is dated Jan 24 … before the levy.]
Useless then.
I’ll qualify — the one on their website, which says it’s the latest, is dated 24 Jan
I sincerely hope at this point the government is not stupid enough to drop the levy. That would mean they had learnt nothing from the disastrous drop in support following the CPRS backflip. Labor has to realise that at some point in being a government worthy of the name, they will have to make some decisions and stick to them. If they do that, they will gain more votes than they lose. If they can’t, they should give up and go back to stacking union office elections.
Howard made capital out of the “perseverence” label for sticking to his guns on some unpopular measures. Labor has commited itself to delivering much better causes than Howard championed. Gillard shoudl just get on with it. She should be willing to negotiate with the independents, but fine tuning only.
The only really meaningful poll would be one comparing the Govt and the Libs plans on how to raise the money and we don’t have that yet.
Polls in January are meaningless. Always have been. They’ll start to get interesting in March/April after a few weeks of reporting out of Canberra.
[The only really meaningful poll would be one comparing the Govt and the Libs plans on how to raise the money and we don’t have that yet.]
We probably never will, unless the Lib plan is wotever is the opposite to Labor’s.
Scuse my French, but what sort of pathetic, whinging douchebags wouldnt support a tiny levy to help out other citizens affected by floods?
If this is genuinely an issue outside crank circles (and Im far from convinced) then those Australians are cordially invited to bite my ass.
Why has Bernard Keane written piece about a poll conducted a week ago? Is he that stumped at The Stump for something to write about? Does he get paid for that?
[I sincerely hope at this point the government is not stupid enough to drop the levy. ]
I just emailed her office …. applauding her recent actions and telling her that I support the levy, as does everyone I have spoken to about it (apart from a couple of PB posters — but they don’t count as friends in these circumstances!)
I also said I recognise that the media has misinformed the public on this.
[Why has Bernard Keane written piece about a poll conducted a week ago? Is he that stumped at The Stump for something to write about? Does he get paid for that?]
I am sure he has the basic facts correct. But I would love to see the actual PDF before agreeing with his interpretation.
Gary 3505
It is good for the ALP, until they fail to bring it into a surplus in 2012-13
3523 – perhaps it’s just not on the Essential site yet.
lefty e,
It makes you shake your head.
What would these people do if we were faced with something on an even larger scale than Qld?
If people can complain about a piddling 0.5-1.0% extra on earnings over $50k, I despair.
This is the true legacy of Howardism, utter selfishness.
“What’s in it for me” is the calling cry of a now craven nation.
BigBob
What would happen if Cyclone Yasi delivers a doozy on Thursday morning?
[BurgeyPosted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 4:39 pm | Permalink3523 – perhaps it’s just not on the Essential site yet.
]
I’m on the mailing list – email hasn’t arrived yet – and neither I beleve William has his copy either.
What a bunch of pathetic questions asked – and not asked – by Essential
Agree Bob – but is it really so?
Whats this poll people are talking about? The one i saw was one of the “Cranks rally here!” online jobs, whose findings I wouldnt piss on if they were afire.
it appears this poll is not worth analysing.
Wonderful! Morris is doing his usual ‘slimey’ thing.
Are we sure it’s a new one and not just last Essential, which was 51-49 to the Coalition, posted on here on the 25th January?
Victoria,
We’ll run around patting ourselves on the back for donating $20 here and there (making sure we keep the receipt for our tax returns, got to get something back from the those thieves in Canberra).
Then we’ll scream blue murder about a tiny impost through the tax system, if it wasn’t our neighbourhood that went under.
If it is our neighbourhood that cops it, we’ll whinge and moan that the government isn’t doing enough for us.
Where a nation of spoiled little children.
[Gary 3505
It is good for the ALP, until they fail to bring it into a surplus in 2012-13]
Dream on sunshine.
Where should be we’re, of course, One shouldn’t type angry!
[Are we sure it’s a new one and not just last Essential, which was 51-49 to the Coalition, posted on here on the 25th January?]
The Stump said the figures were unchanged so it must be new stuff.
I hadn’t understood what the male menopause was – that is, until I saw Graeme Morris on Agenda today.
If it turns out that refusal to pay a fraction of a dollar/week to help disadvantaged QLDers is what it takes to turn against a government, then quite frankly this nation deserves Abbott and every horrible thing he does to them.
[The Stump said the figures were unchanged so it must be new stuff.]
Ah ok. Thanks.
[If it turns out that refusal to pay a fraction of a dollar/week to help disadvantaged QLDers is what it takes to turn against a government, then quite frankly this nation deserves Abbott and every horrible thing he does to them.]
Pebbs
You have written exactly what I have been (painfully) musing.
BigBob/TSOP
Agree with both your sentiments.
Ha Ha — hawker just called Rabbit “one Trick Pony”
Go PB!
Hawker just trotted out (no pun intended) the “one trick pony” line.
TSOP & BK,
Yep.
It doesn’t bear mulling over about what the person next to you is thinking.
They probably voted for Abbott.
BK,
[I hadn’t understood what the male menopause was – that is, until I saw Graeme Morris on Agenda today. ]
Don’t flatter him.
More like an abortion gone wrong! 😉