Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 70 of 73
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  4. Did Shorten say this in his interview earlier today?

    [LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 seconds ago
    Shorten : my msg to the…Oppn is don’t fall into the trap of not being willing to lead, not being able to follow, & just being in the way.]

  7. [from all reports, very sporadically

    a lot of flights in have been cancelled, hence its hard to get peeps out]

    Gus, would the parting of Red Sea help?

  9. victoria,

    He did. If you get a chance to watch the full interview, do because he did a fantastic job, both in getting the messages across, and for putting the interviewer, politely, in his place.

  14. BB – why don’t ya get yourself a couple of goats – there’s plenty around!

    I’m working on grass-eating dogs.

  15. Just posted Truss’s website……….don’t expect a reply 😀

    Message Type: Suggestion
    Subject: National Issue
    Comments: “”It seems curious that five out of the six road projects that are to be deferred or cut in Queensland are in electorates which Labor lost at the last election,” Mr Truss said.

    “They were marginal electorates, they were electorates where Labor made lots of promises about road building and other projects, but as soon as the election is over it seems these are the voters that have been forgotten.

    “I think it is the Government that is playing politics with human tragedy.”

    Warren…are you a complete idiot? Why is it favourable for a Labor Govt. to delay infrastructure projects in marginal seats???…..Wouldn’t they be doing everything possible to win them back next time…..isn’t this the exact OPPOSITE of “pork barrelling”?…..Derrrrr!!!!

  21. rua,

    The Last time aussies got caught in the middle of overseas political mayhem they hired coaches to bus them out and then chartered flights to get them out.

    They maybe working out the logistics to do something similar.

  24. Egypt……….Prof. Cole (Informed Comment)
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    He looks at the way economic rationalists policies have worsened the lives of most ordinary Egyptians in the last 20 years,and enriched a small elite linked to the Western multi-nationals(Surprise !!)along with the crushing of the Egyptian unions(Shades of John Howard and Work-Choices!!!) and now comes the revolt against the poverty those policies have produced for the workers.
    http://www.juancole.com/2011/01/egypts-class-conflict.html

  25. Space Kidette
    A friend of mine was the Shah of Iran’s private horse trainer and he had to exit Iran very quickly when the revolution erupted and the Shah was toppled. My friend had to climb up the fuselage of a chartered plane on a rope ladder with machine gun fire going off all around him – his driver shot in the car – my friend was also wearing size 16 shoes in which was hidden a fortune in Thomas Cook travellers cheques. Those were also the days!

  27. It’s so sad to see this:

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/floodrelief/treasurer-wayne-swan-disgusted-by-flood-low-lifes/story-fn7ik2te-1225997323088

    Some of the comments are just awful.

    Swan gives out money and some of it is wasted: BAD

    Swan makes it hard to get money and none of it is wasted: STILL BAD

    How in the hell did it come to this? This terrible tragedy has been turned into a farce by the Right and their rent-a-whingers. No matter what the government does there are thousands ready to condemn them for it, or to second-guess it.

  28. For those who might be interested

    [HOWESPAUL | 21 seconds ago
    Will be joining @BenFordham with Andrew Bolt on 2GB at 4.20 for the first of our regular Monday politics spot]

  30. Re Egypt Flights……………..
    >>>>>>>>>>>>
    There was a report last night ,I think on BBC,that there was a stream of charter flights organised by Emirates(to Dubai)taking many of the wealthiest people in Egypt out of Cairo airport…including many of the super-rich ruling elite….Now what does that suggest ?????????????
    Roll on The Revolution !!
    (In an Australian context it would see Clive Palmer,Gina Reinhard,Twiggy Forrest doing a bunk !)…and possibly Abbbott too !

  31. [victoriaPosted Monday, January 31, 2011 at 3:55 pm | Permalinkb-g
    I know you were expecting a better result for the ALP. I am not surprised.
    ]

    The Young Libs have all signed up – hence the skewed result 🙂

  32. I despair at the results of the Nielsen poll in which a majority wanted to defer the NBN.
    If ever there were to be an illustration of the power of the media this is it.

  33. [I know you were expecting a better result for the ALP. I am not surprised.]
    Me either. I actually thought it would be worse for Labor. No change is a good result.

  37. victoria @ 3452

    Did Shorten say this in his interview earlier today?

    LATIKAMBOURKE | 8 seconds ago
    Shorten : my msg to the…Oppn is don’t fall into the trap of not being willing to lead, not being able to follow, & just being in the way.

    That looks like a mis-quote of an old quotation: “Lead, follow, or get out of the way!” One of my favourites. Actuallly came from Thomas Paine (the real one). 😛

  38. [With only 22% supporting a Levy, it seems like Abbott has prevailed?]
    With the TPP not changing you could argue it aint a vote changer.

  42. [With only 22% supporting a Levy, it seems like Abbott has prevailed?]

    Look at the question, it was not “Do you support a levy” it was a dogs breakfast multiple choice of options.

  44. I would love to conduct a qualitative survey and ask respondents that disagree with the levy to explain how it would work and why they object.

  45. [Julia may stroke his ego a bit, rub his tum and he;ll be sweet ]

    I hope that’s all, you wicked mooey!! lol I bet he’d like it tho

  46. The polls on approving the levy don’t matter. The Government is dead if it drops it.

    Damn the torpedoos, full speed ahead!

  47. BB and others… waaaaay back in post 870, early hours of Saturday morning, I predicted the OO’s headline would be “Gillard Fails Desperate Australian Tourists” and that the story would be a pathetic beatup.

    I wasn’t far wrong.

  48. b-g @ 3474

    I clicked through all the links and it seemed like it took me to an essential poll from 23rd Jan.
    Do you know if there’s actually a new poll?

  49. Essential need a fair bit of turnaround on their supplementary questions, so I could have told you you weren’t going to get any nicely tailored to the present controversy. Their questions are the kind you would have come up with early last week. By the same token, the voting intention results don’t give much measure of response to the flood levy.

  50. [The polls on approving the levy don’t matter. The Government is dead if it drops it.

    Damn the torpedoos, full speed ahead!]
    Depth charges wouldn’t work. Abbott and his mates only skate on the surface.

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