Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

The latest Morgan poll, which covers 1824 respondents from the last two weekends’ face-to-face surveys, finds Labor recovering slightly from their nadir over December and the new year. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 40.5 per cent while the Coalition is down from 44 per cent to 41.5 per cent, with the Greens also down from 13 per cent to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences according to the distribution at the previous election, Labor’s lead has gone from 50.5-49.5 to 52.5-47.5. On the “preferences distributed by how respondents say they will vote” measure, which Morgan has lately been using as its headline figure, the shift is from 50-50 to 52-48. As always, consideration should be given to the margin of error (a bit under 2.5 per cent when Morgan combines two weekends of polling) and the house bias to Labor in Morgan face-to-face polling (which seems to be about 3 per cent). Taken together with Monday’s Essential Research result, the two parties appear to be pretty finely poised at present.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Kudos to Boerwar for first tipping that the Basin Plan will be dead

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/31/3125902.htm?section=justin

    [“I don’t have a high degree of ownership of that document. It obviously caused a great deal of angst in rural and regional communities,” he said.

    “I work fairly and decently with people and [will] have a fresh look at things. I want balance.

    “I don’t believe you can put one component ahead of another. You’ve got to try and balance environmental, economic and social considerations.”]

  4. If this is true the levy will be passed no worries

    Senior government ministers believe the Gillard government has won enough cross-party support for its $5.6 billion flood recovery package despite the Coalition’s strong criticisms of the $1.8 billion flood levy, according to a report in The Australian Financial Review.

    According to the report, some believe the government has actually received a boost in support as a result of the negative reaction from the Greens and independent MPs to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s encouragement of them to oppose the levy.

    One senior minister told the newspaper that Mr Abbott’s calls for abandoning the national broadband network and raiding the budget contingency fund were an opportunity to reinforce public doubts about Mr Abbott.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Flood-levy-likely-to-pass-report-pd20110131-DLSCC?OpenDocument&src=hp7

  6. The Basin plan was dead the moment the Coalition reneged on bipartisan support for it- which it had from the ALP when Howard was in office.

    It’s an impossible sell without that.

  7. Just a question but Pyne, Julie Bishop and Turnbull have been very quiet lately, even with Tony coming out of his holidays to try and use the floods for political gain.

    Could it be some Liberals are thinking it is wise to stay away and say nothing even with Tony on the attack against Labor?

    I think Tony Abbott has made a mistake here with the stuff he has been spouting since the floods. But unfortunetely I think the media is to blame for this also, they have given this guy a free pass for so long.

    Its just a question of whether Labor can use this to their advantage.

  9. [[SAMANTHAMAIDEN |
    People earning over $200k will pay half of the $1.8 billion flood levy according to NATSEM research]
    Well whoopy doo Miss Piggy!

  10. Kezza

    Abbott has been a disgrace. Considering that Qld is still dealing with challenging weather including cyclone due on Thursday morning.

  13. If I were earning over $200,000.00 I would be very appreciative of my good fortune. Therefore, happy to contribute more to the cause.

  14. [Finnigans. – The Govt’s aggressive line will continue. They have learnt the hard way]

    al palster, it’s about farqing time, pardon my French. It’s the old school yard rule, stand up for yourself or get bullied. the Govt has been bullied by the Opposition, the MSM and Their ABC. And we have been saying here on PB for ages.

    It’s a bit like me, if i dont stand up for myself here on PB, i get bullied by Diog 😛

  15. Kezza,

    I could be way off the mark here, but my gut tells me this play is all Tony and judging by the shrill Sloppy bluster, I think he may have been the only one dumb enough to play ball with Phoney.

    I posted earlier in the floods that this doesn’t come across as Coalition policy, but as RAbbott’s play for the keys to the Lodge.

  16. [If I were earning over $200,000.00 I would be very appreciative of my good fortune. ]

    Vic, Toothey earns more than $200,000 and he still aint happy and wants to:

    STOP THE BOATS!!!

  21. The one good thing about the unhinged one taking all the limelight with his disgusting behaviour is that we have neither seen nor heard Prissy Pyne.
    Bliss!!

  22. Tony Burke is hardly a champion for reform.

    Expect the MDB reforms to be repackaged business-as-usually trite.

    Burke has also sent the Hawke Review to the scrap heap. What is the point of these reviews if you ditch them.

  24. [Methinks you doth protest too much – go on, admit it, you really love Dio!]

    Kiddo, i said it before. we have a love-hate relationships.

    he loves me and i hate him 👿

  29. Space Kiddette, I just find it odd that no-one else has come out and supported Abbott on this apart from like you say Hockey.

    BK I agree no more Pyne please although Harry will be dealing with him soon enough.

  30. [
    People earning over $200k will pay half of the $1.8 billion flood levy according to NATSEM research
    ]

    Sam Maiden tweeting old articles. That one is from yesterdays papers!

  31. BK,

    Well enjoy your Prissy-free zone, as we are on a countdown to QT. Then it will be wall-to-wall Prissy, the liberal lovelies, and the rest of Phoney’s cronies!

  34. Kezza,

    Maybe some of that Fib crew have a heart, but I am more inclined to believe they know political suicide when they see it.

  35. Vera @ 3348,

    Sorry to take so long getting back to you, I just wanted to make sure with my wife but that caller saying Centrelink had contacted them re:flood payment was full of the proverbial.

    You have to apply to Centrelink to receive a payment – there are no automatic payments or contacts made.

    Even if there was, there would be no time for Centrelink to do it currently, they are barely keeping their heads above water processing what is coming in.

  36. [You have to apply to Centrelink to receive a payment – there are no automatic payments or contacts made.]

    Centrelink did send out automated SMS messages to people in affected areas. Telling them they MAY be eligible.

  37. True SK. I think what he has come out with the last week or so is like rat poison, and perhaps some are staying away from it.

  39. [BK,

    Well enjoy your Prissy-free zone, as we are on a countdown to QT. Then it will be wall-to-wall Prissy, the liberal lovelies, and the rest of Phoney’s cronies!]
    Kidette
    Yes, I know. I just hope my baser instincts don’t get the better of me when I see the Member for Indi the first time for the year.

  41. Australian Embassy in Cairo (just another tourist bureau for the Muslim hordes that are taking over Australia) leaves gen-u-ine Aussies trapped by hordes of criminals with guns.

    Australians appeal to Canberra to get them out of Egypt, as other nations evacuate citizens

    * Ben Packham
    * From: The Australian
    * January 31, 2011 1:59PM

    TERRIFIED Australian tourists trapped in Cairo are pleading with the Australian government to help them escape Egypt, amid growing anarchy in the capital.

    They say they’ve had little help from Australian authorities as gunfire erupts on the streets and escaped prisoners roam free amid anti-government protests.

    Melbourne tourist, Cassandra, 22, has been holed up in Cairo’s airport with her sister Rachelle, 19, for two nights.

    She said the US and Canada had managed to get citizens out on special charter flights, but Australian authorities had said they couldn’t organise flights without high-level approval.

    “They realise we are in a bad situation here but they say it’s not serious enough to do anything yet,” she said.

    “We keep ringing them and getting put on hold. They say they’ll call back and they don’t.”

    “There is 5000 prisoners from three different prisons who are loose on the streets with guns.”

    She asked that her surname not be used, saying she didn’t want to jeopardise her chances of escaping the country.

    That’s right, they’d ignore her because she dared to complain.

    Can’t wait for comments to be opened on this one. The Rabids will be out in force.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/australians-appeal-to-canberra-to-get-them-out-of-egypt-as-other-nations-evacuate-citizens/story-fn59nm2j-1225997465976

    (Chuck bucket de rigeur)

  42. BK,

    [Kidette
    Yes, I know. I just hope my baser instincts don’t get the better of me when I see the Member for Indi the first time for the year.
    ]

    I will buy you some boxing gloves so at least you don’t damage your hands (sorry, but I can’t help you save the TV!)

  47. BB

    You beat me to it. That is why I asked if commercial flights are able to leave Cairo at this stage.

    Geez Vicky, if I can beat you to it, you must be slowing down a real lot.

    I’m still suffering from buying new blades for the mower (3 out of 4 broken) and then foolishly celebrating by kicking on and doing the lawns yesterday in the heat. Even the dogs stayed inside with the A/C. Her Indoors said I had “that look” on my face which means, “Don’t disturb me. I’m doing something crazy.”

    The blades DID work a treat though. 15 grass-catchers’ worth. Last week… 4 only.

  48. Gusface

    I remember hearing on radio that Australia had sent people to Eygpt to sort out people that may be stranded. Not sure about it though.

  49. I gather most countries haven’t organised charter flights to get their citizens out of Egypt although a few have.

    That is actually the crux of the OO story. Australia is with by far the majority of countries, but you’d never think so if you read the OO.

    STOP THE RIOTS

  50. BB

    Been hot here in Melbourne. Has a way of slowing me down. A cool change has come through now. It is about 28 degrees. Fantastic!

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