Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [And what about his hair colour, earlobes and handbag choice?]

    And hands. He doesn’t use his hands. Where is the outrage?!

  3. vp @ 4292

    bemused,

    Buy the lime squeeze till the prices get better. Else, add a tiny bit of chilli paste or flakes to lemon juice. Cut down on a tad on added liquid.

    I am sure sk will take that on board but I am not a lime with anything drinker. Prefer a good red. 😉

  4. Lime juice cordial is an option, or a prerequisite if you’re doing pisco sours (3 parts pisco, 2 parts lime cordial, 1 part sugar syrup (equal vols of sugar and water boiled till liquid turns very slightly dark), 1 egg white. Blend with 1 egg white and ice cubes)

  5. Puff,

    I am just waiting to see the news reports when he rocks up with his new handbag and it doesn’t match his Armani suit!

  8. [None known to me and none expected either. Men in dark suits all look like… well, men in dark suits.]

    Men are given a free pass to be as boring as they like and wear whatever they want, yet we jump up and down with horror when a woman dares to be straight-faced and deviate away from the boring dark suit.

    I hope you are seeing some double-standards with your own comments here, bemused.

  9. confessions @ 4301

    And what about his hair colour, earlobes and handbag choice?

    And hands. He doesn’t use his hands. Where is the outrage?!

    He has managed expectations down to about as low as you can get.

  13. confessions @ 4308

    I hope you are seeing some double-standards with your own comments here, bemused.

    They are societies double standards, not mine.

    Ted manages to take bland to a new level.

  14. Damn. My plate is empty. It was tasty but a plate of rabbit-food can only take you so far. 🙁
    I keep feeling that there should have been a T-Bone somewhere in the equation.

    It is a bit like reading a Tone policy document.

  16. IMHO, Ted is not showing the sort of empathy you would expect from a real state leader. His hair is looking a bit unkempt and he was not even wearing an army coat. I would give him about a 7.5 for the comfortability of his hugs – and that was just the blokes. He is definitely not up to the standards of Abbott on the caring and sharing and I have yet to see Ted with a broom or a shovel. Plus, he has not even mentioned whose fault it is and he has not called for dams to be built across north-western Victoria to stop it all the next time.

    Ted’s on-again, off-again approach to the levy must be profoundly unsettling to the flood victims. I am expecting a Leak/Nicholson cartoon blitz of Ted in a dinghy in the flood rowing with one oar; or maybe Ted in a barbed-wire canoe without any paddle at all. I mean to say, his cuff links were totally inconspicous, and his trousers have been of dowdy cut. Plus, he is all wooden gravitas. For dog’s sake, Ted, try not to make everyone feel bad about the fact that you are just hanging around.

    I mean to say, does Ted really care?

    I am expecting several articles from the likes of Albrechtson, Savva, Colless, Akerman, Bolt, etc, etc, etc, about Ted being in ‘trouble’, unconvincing etc, etc, etc…

  17. vp @ 4315

    Lime is a nectar in certain combinations (Prawns in chilli lime, lime cooked with white fish fillet – escabiche).

    I guess I am not much of a cook and have never used it as an ingredient. I do recall having eaten dishes where it was an ingredient but never gave it much attention.

    You have sharpened my awareness and I will pay more attention in future.

  18. vp
    Head south over Commonwealth bridge, turn left towards the national library, turn left again at the first set of lights. This takes you under the Common wealth bridge. The memorial is, I seem to recall, a couple of hundred metres past the bridge underpass not far from the shore of the lake.

  21. bemused:

    Perhaps I’m mistaken, but the comments I’ve seen here from you over the past couple of weeks have taken the same predictable course of:

    1. The PM looks better in an army/workman jacket. My interpretation: OMG her clothes!

    2. OMG her hands! My interpretation: I’m watching, not listening to what you are saying!

    3. The PM has a boring voice. My interpretation: I’m still not listening to what you are saying. But can you do that thing again with the flack jacket, that looked nice.

    You then excuse these very same criticisms of a male leader as being, well, what men do. And wear.

    Nobody that I’ve seen has levelled the same criticisms at Baillieu, who in my view is truly awful in his media presentation. Why do you think this is?

  22. Very funny, Boerwar. And I was serious about people like you applying for the ABC and SBS Boards. Just think what stories you could tell us….eventually.

  23. Lime marmalade, yuuuummmmmmm. I was recently given a jar of home-made lime and ginger marmalade. Toast has never been so beautiful.

  31. Earlier, on TV, they were showing tits of The Howard Years. If you thought JG had hand movements, just look at JWH: a double handed karate chop.

  34. [Earlier, on TV, they were showing tits of The Howard Years. ]
    What, secret tapes of Howie in budgie smugglers!

  39. HSO

    Over a lifetime I have been ejected, removed, or quietly excluded, from various processes for making various people feel uncomfortable about home truthes.

    It was sort of career limiting, but hey, you only live once, and I have always enjoyed being able to lie straight in bed.

  40. bemused@4313

    confessions @ 4308

    I hope you are seeing some double-standards with your own comments here, bemused.

    They are societies double standards, not mine.

    Ted manages to take bland to a new level.

    …no bemused…..they’re your double standards………you cannot presume to speak for our whole society….

  43. The supreme don’t drive: the lime daiquiri: ice enough to almost freeze, no egg white, three or four parts white rum, 1 part lime juice cordial (shake, don’t stir: OK, whatever!)

  49. vp,
    [the lime daiquiri]
    I will try that the very next hot day, oh it’s going to be warm here this week. 😉

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