Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. SK

    [This!report!summarises!the!results!of!a!weekly!omnibus!conducted!by!Essential!Research!with!data!provided!by!Your!Source.!!The!survey!was!
    conducted!online!from!11
    th
    to!16
    th
    January!2011!and!is!based!on!1,052!respondents.!!!]

    sourced from the “back in action ” link

  4. A brief comment before off to work: if Julia Gillard’s personal ratings are improving, but Labor’s 2PP is still poor, then there are other/policy issues Labor needs to address. It would be interesting to see a breakdown by issues.

    As well as dealing with the economy, Labor needs to deal with either a carbon tax or CPRS. IMO, in the absence of an international agreement for a CPRS, a carbon tax is simpler. It would also help with the budget surplus, and allow room to move on other issues.

  10. Julian Morrow is doing a good job of ABC Radio National Breakfast program. I quite enjoy his segment. This morning he interviewed a South African man who had been a lawyer and judge who worked against apartheid in that country and who had been tortured, as well as losing an arm and an eye in a bomb attack. (Sorry, I didn’t catch his name.)

  11. Looking at the headline from yesterday’s Oz (saw it at the Supermarket late last night). I think the headline was:

    [Rebuild choices to spark rows]

    I wont so much comment on the partisan nature of the OZ, but more I want to comment on its divisive nature.

    Whilst Australian communities are busy pulling together and dealing with the total sh_tfight that is cleaning up a flood, and our leaders are trying to maintian a positive and cohesive society, the Australian are busy doing the opposite.

    They are looking for conflict where it is none there and trying to create division where none exists. If there is anything more unAustralian than the Australian.

  16. [b_g
    What you saw in the OO is a disgrace. They just can’t help themselves.]

    We have had streams of journos reporting courage, heartbreak, commmunities working together etc. And that is the sort of stories they have been looking for. I can imagine the editors sending journos out to find such stories. But the OZ is seeding the pattern of something else. Soon we will have journos out looking for the conflict, the division the failures.

  17. How does the eight point increase in personal approval and four points down in disapproval sit with this meme, pursued both here and elsewhere, of the Prime Minister failing to cut through?

  18. bg 11

    The opposition, and the Oz (aka The American) were quite willing to scare the country into recession at the start of the GFC when they thought it might get the Libs back into power. They are hardly going to stop at upsetting a few people in the community if it achieves the same objective.

  20. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@10

    Julian Morrow is doing a good job of ABC Radio National Breakfast program. I quite enjoy his segment. This morning he interviewed a South African man who had been a lawyer and judge who worked against apartheid in that country and who had been tortured, as well as losing an arm and an eye in a bomb attack. (Sorry, I didn’t catch his name.)

    That would be retired judge Albie Sachs. I heard him interviewed on the law report a few months ago and he’s a compelling person with an amazing set of stories. He is also still very strong on human rights. He has written a couple of lauded books that I hope to get around to reading before long.

  21. Soc and BK,

    It is quite disgusting reading the Oz impune the reputations of the hydrologists at WIvenhoe by suggesting they should have emptied the dam way before it rained.

    They would have been the first to criticise them for wasting water.

  22. BG @ 11;

    [They are looking for conflict where it is none there and trying to create division where none exists. If there is anything more unAustralian than the Australian.]

    Yes they really have become tedious in the extreme at The OO.

    They believe they are so ‘persuasive and authoritative’ and take themselves so seriously. Very good at ‘dishing it out’ but not at all good at taking criticism. In fact you could say they have a ‘glass jaw.’

  23. [Rewi Lyall
    Posted Tuesday, January 18, 2011 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    How does the eight point increase in personal approval and four points down in disapproval sit with this meme, pursued both here and elsewhere, of the Prime Minister failing to cut through]

    Rewi,

    As I said earlier, I haven’t got a clue. And also how does an approval rating rise so much yet voting allocations don’t change.

  24. Oz world cup squad

    Australia’s World Cup SquadRicky Ponting (captain), Michael Clarke (vice-captain), Doug Bollinger, Brad Haddin, John Hastings, Nathan Hauritz, David Hussey, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Brett Lee, Tim Paine, Steve Smith, Shaun Tait, Shane Watson, Cameron White.

  25. [how does an approval rating rise so much yet voting allocations don’t change]

    I would imagine that it’s possible to answer the question ‘do you approve of the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as Prime Minister?’ in the affirmative while not necessarily believing she should be in the job at all.

    They’re not necessarily mutually exclusive positions.

  26. morning bludgers

    the PM conducted interview this morning here in Vic with Lindsay Fox by her side. I have yet to hear it, but apparently there is a suggestion that a flood levy may be imposed on Australians, much like a Medicare levy. Something I mentioned on this board a few days ago. Who said people in high places don’t read this blog!!

  27. jv
    [He has written a couple of lauded books that I hope to get around to reading before long.]
    Mee too. 🙂
    You know you PB blighters are upsetting my reading life. 🙁 I was enjoying my 2nd-hand-shop/garage sale thrillers and crime novels. Now I want to read all these serious tomes, arrghhh!

  29. [I would imagine that it’s possible to answer the question ‘do you approve of the way Julia Gillard is doing her job as Prime Minister?’ in the affirmative while not necessarily believing she should be in the job at all.

    They’re not necessarily mutually exclusive positions.]

    They are not. But the changes in approval and voting are often better correlated than that, especially for PM. Oppn leaders is somewhat different.’

    So currently there are many folk who approve of Julia, disapprove of Tony but would vote coalition anyway.

  30. vic

    I noticed this article which probably relates to the press conference the PM did with Lindsay Fox

    [
    PRIME Minister Julia Gillard has announced the formation of a business task force to help Queensland as it recovers from devastating floods.

    Ms Gillard says she has decided to bring together 10 Australian leading business people to form a business round table to assist with corporate support as Queensland recovers and rebuilds from floods.

    The group will be chaired by Treasurer Wayne Swan and meet with the Prime Minister for the first time next week.

    Ms Gillard said trucking magnate Lindsay Fox and Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser would also be members of the group.

    “The purpose of bringing leading corporate identities together… is to further leverage corporate support for the recovery and rebuilding in Queensland,” she said.
    ]

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/business-executives-to-lead-governments-flood-task-force/story-e6freuyr-1225990136732

  31. The Oz are suggesting that 80% of the flood is the result of the emergency releases. Perhaps they should have let the dam fail. Or have emptied the dam prior to the freak rain event.

  33. I am currently listening to that annoying Neil Mitchell on 3aw. Only reason being is that Lindsay Fox is due to come on shortly to discuss the business task force he is now part of re flood recovery. For the short time I have been listening to this idiot this morning, he has said not one positive thing about our PM. What a hack! Honestly, I feel like telling this person to f off and get over himself. What a weasel.

  34. This article in the Oz talks about a possible levy being introduced

    [
    A FLOOD levy is one of the options before the federal government as it considers how to honour its commitment to cover the lion’s share of rebuilding costs while preserving the budget’s return to surplus in 2012-13.

    Any levy would likely take the form of an addition to the 1.5 per cent Medicare levy, which raises $10 billion a year.

    Julia Gillard indicated yesterday that the government’s obligations to support Queensland would form part of the planning for the 2011-12 budget.

    “There’s going to be a lot of effort and money and resources needed to rebuild, particularly rebuild Queensland, but we’ll be managing the federal budget through the federal government so that we can meet those needs as well as managing the budget into surplus in 2012-13,” the Prime Minister said.

    ]

    But it then goes on to say

    [
    It is understood that it is too soon for the Treasurer’s office to decide how it will pay for rebuilding and it is yet to rule out any options.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/queensland-floods/swan-weighs-levy-to-foot-rebuilding-bill/story-fn7iwx3v-1225989845355

  36. madcyril

    thanks for posting that information. Lindsay Fox is going to be interviewed by Mitchell after 10.00 am regarding this taskforce. I will be interested to hear what he has to say.

  37. b-g

    let me get this straight. The OO reckons the dam releases caused the flood, and yet on the other hand, not releasing enough water caused the flood?

  39. what does the OO think about the floods in Victoria. Which are the worst on record. Can they find blame in our Liberal state govt for anything to do with that? What partisan hacks!!

  43. Good morning.

    This is of little or no international importance, but we have a new phrase in our (American-influenced) language. Apparently Kidman and Urban have a new child, born through a surrogate mother. Their press release includes:
    [‘No words can adequately convey the incredible gratitude that we feel for everyone who was so supportive throughout this process, in particular our gestational carrier.’]

    Gestational carrier – yuk!

  45. With Nathan Hauritz going to the World Cup, I assume he will now play in the rest of the One Dayers instead of Doherty.

    [
    And I still don’t why Steve Smith continues to get selected.
    ]

    I endorse this statment 😆

  46. Victoria @ 37;

    [let me get this straight. The OO reckons the dam releases caused the flood, and yet on the other hand, not releasing enough water caused the flood?]

    Damned if they do and damned if they don’t by The OO. Pun 100% intended.

  47. I apologise for introducing the artificial world of “the stars” into this serious blog, but after looking at the headlines in the Oz, I felt the day had started so badly taht I was groping around for any distraction.

  50. [Whilst Australian communities are busy pulling together and dealing with the total sh_tfight that is cleaning up a flood, and our leaders are trying to maintian a positive and cohesive society, the Australian are busy doing the opposite.

    They are looking for conflict where it is none there and trying to create division where none exists. If there is anything more unAustralian than the Australian.]

    b_g Gusface can confirm that last week Franklin indicated in his tweets that the first week of the floods was for emotional stuff but from this week the gloves are off and the OO will be back to its usual agenda. Franklin says it’s ‘keep the bast…rds honest’ which is OO speak for ‘let’s get rid of this Govt. and put our boy so that we can go on being back in charge of the joint’.

    victoria – can you let us know what Lindsay Fox has to say.

    There was a report here before Christmas that Fairfax radio (2UE 3AW etc) has to get tougher, i.e. become more like 2GB and Alan Jones. They recruited former 2GB blokes to do the job in Sydney so I guess Mitchell has to play the game more heavily now to keep his ratings.

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