Galaxy: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW

I don’t have comprehensive data to hand, but I believe NSW Labor has recorded the worst opinion poll result in Australian history. The Galaxy Research survey of 800 respondents (margin of error about 3.5 per cent) has Labor’s primary vote on 20 per cent (yes, 20 per cent), just five points clear of the Greens. With 51 per cent, the Coalition can make a rare claim to an absolute majority of the primary vote. On two-party preferred, the Coalition has an (I think) unprecedented lead of 66-34, pointing to a swing of over 18 per cent – which if uniform would reduce Labor to about 14 seats out of 93. Though in fact it’s actually worse than that, as optional preferential voting would further starve Labor of Greens preferences.

On top of that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are not what they used to be: she has an approval rating of 30 per cent and a disapproval rating of 62 per cent, putting her in the same sort of territory as Anna Bligh (though we could maybe do with an update on that one). Barry O’Farrell on the other hand would appear to be benefiting from the comparison: he has 53 per cent approval and 33 per cent approval. O’Farrell has a 54-32 lead as preferred premier, which is about as good as it gets for an opposition leader.

Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: I see that Galaxy have asked Greens voters what if anything they will do with their preferences, finding 55 per cent will direct them but 44 per cent will just vote one. This appears to be hardly different from the last election, when about 40 per cent of Greens votes exhausted. However, a) the sample of Greens voters is very small (about 120), and b) the 55 per cent figure presumably includes some who will number more than one box without passing a preference on to either major party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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