Galaxy: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW

I don’t have comprehensive data to hand, but I believe NSW Labor has recorded the worst opinion poll result in Australian history. The Galaxy Research survey of 800 respondents (margin of error about 3.5 per cent) has Labor’s primary vote on 20 per cent (yes, 20 per cent), just five points clear of the Greens. With 51 per cent, the Coalition can make a rare claim to an absolute majority of the primary vote. On two-party preferred, the Coalition has an (I think) unprecedented lead of 66-34, pointing to a swing of over 18 per cent – which if uniform would reduce Labor to about 14 seats out of 93. Though in fact it’s actually worse than that, as optional preferential voting would further starve Labor of Greens preferences.

On top of that, Kristina Keneally’s personal ratings are not what they used to be: she has an approval rating of 30 per cent and a disapproval rating of 62 per cent, putting her in the same sort of territory as Anna Bligh (though we could maybe do with an update on that one). Barry O’Farrell on the other hand would appear to be benefiting from the comparison: he has 53 per cent approval and 33 per cent approval. O’Farrell has a 54-32 lead as preferred premier, which is about as good as it gets for an opposition leader.

Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

UPDATE: I see that Galaxy have asked Greens voters what if anything they will do with their preferences, finding 55 per cent will direct them but 44 per cent will just vote one. This appears to be hardly different from the last election, when about 40 per cent of Greens votes exhausted. However, a) the sample of Greens voters is very small (about 120), and b) the 55 per cent figure presumably includes some who will number more than one box without passing a preference on to either major party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

201 comments on “Galaxy: 66-34 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. Frankie V 54

    actually u came up with a good point.

    What is the possibility that the Nationals (currently on 13 seats) will actually have more seats than the ALP and under that circumstances, would they become the official opposition and relegate the ALP to the cross benches

  2. [Ship of state being kept afloat? They’re bailing not sailing.

    And don’t even start me on public transport ticketing.]

    good to see you can maintain an impartial approach

  3. Toorak Toff @ 134

    [But whereas so many places around the world are political basket cases – Ireland]

    You keep bringing up Ireland as if it was a comparable first world country, rather than a shitty backwater that didn’t restructure its economy until a decade after red China.

  4. 150

    There is central nomination now (partly because of this). So if the same thing happened with the central nomination there could be no chance of the Liberals/Coalition getting any seats up for election and there is more than one other non-ALP (and non-Green too) option likely to be up in each electorate anyway so the vote could split.

  5. [You keep bringing up Ireland as if it was a comparable first world country, rather than a shitty backwater that didn’t restructure its economy until a decade after red China.]


    ireland aint commie

    you lose

  6. One particular problem for Labor is that there are so many open seats this time, & many of them are on winnable margins for the Coalition, like Drummoyne for instance.
    They can’t count on the personal vote of sitting members to help them.

  7. Hey GG,

    Don’t forget to give us your predictions. Mine are wacky so you are more than likely to beat me and can gloat to your hearts content! Just put it down in writing here before the event and then we can play.

    Gus did, you can too.

    You have to be in it to win it!

  8. Moves afoot against Roozendaal

    ERIC Roozendaal’s botched power sale could cost him his job, with union bosses lobbying Labor to cut him loose.

    The charge to demote Mr Roozendaal into an unwinnable spot on the ticket for the NSW Upper House is being led by AWU state secretary Russ Collison.

    Several other union secretaries are on board.

    It’s understood Mr Collison and Labor’s general secretary Sam Dastyari met last week, while sacked former party president and Electrical Trades Union secretary Bernie Riordan has also lobbied Mr Dastyari.

    One Labor MP said: “They are working hard, putting lots of pressure on Sam. They think Eric and (Premier Kristina) Keneally destroyed the party because of the electricity debacle and closing Parliament.”

  9. Roozendaal would miss out on a pension if that occurs – there are some who say that is the only reason he is still there.
    7:30 report tonight had a story of people loosing large amounts of money by investing in mezzanine schemes that promised 34% pa returns. It was claimed that the NSW treasurer has lost a personal motza – not a good look for a finance minister.

  10. I don’t suppose I do know what I’m talking about, but I’d sooner live in NSW, which has an AAA credit rating and (I’m told) a competent health minister, than in Britain, which has just had a negative quarter of growth even before massive government curbacks and which is preparing to dismember its iconic national health system.

  11. Gusface @ 156

    [ireland aint commie]

    Thanks for the heads up Gusface but I did actually know that. May I suggest you do a bit of reading on modern Irish history so you can keep up with the conversation. I’m sure you’d find it far more rewarding than spending eighteen hours a day posting snotty comments on this blog.

    Toorak Toff @ 161

    [I’d sooner live in NSW . . . than in Britain]

    If the only responsibility the British or Irish governments had was to spend vast amounts of cash, given to them by John Howard, I’m sure they’d be in the black to, but you’re willfully ignoring the fact that our economy is run by the government in Canberra (and the Reserve Bank), not by the Terrigal crime syndicate currently squatting in Macquarie Street.

  12. Keneally and Roozendaal came across a dumb idea thought up by everyone’s favourite member for Fairfield, and executed it poorly. The dumb idea had only one identifiable purpose. Keeping Bernie happy.

    So Bernie Riordan being involved in a plot to dump Roozendaal because he “destroyed the party because of the electricity debacle” is beyond satire. When a list is made of people who “destroyed the party”, Bernie will be in the top 3, along with his mate, Robbo. Roozendaal, for all his faults, won’t be in the top 20. Roozendaal and Keneally are only where they are due to the lack of viable alternatives.

    Anyway, this is a naked power play (ouch!) because Keneally got Riordan kicked out of the state ALP presidency 2 weeks ago, on the contrived basis of some anodyne comments in some Electrical Trade Union circular. I can’t think why they even bother dressing it up with p!ssweak excuses. Most people couldn’t care less, and those that do care, know what is going on.

    You’d wonder who decided to make Bernie state president in the first place…

  13. It is amazing how some people who obviously have no idea about NSW keep making stupid and uninform comments, which shows that they have no idea about the state

    They thinks having a big and expensive public service is a great thing, dispite the fact that I know for a fact that some do not actually have a job, but the public section union does not allow the government to retrench them …. as for those who have a job, a large proportion of them are actually not front line stuff, and who are only in there to create the “spin” that fools people of NSW …. and we wonder why NSW does not have the money for infrastructure.

    Those who keep making comments about how wonderful this government is…. had probably not went to work from Paramatta to the city at 7:30 in the morning…. if they had they would probably find that sitting in a car park called the Parramatta Road for 1.5 hours is not too much fun…. and they can blame it on the abysmal government of NSW ALP.

    Only 10% of NSW still want this incompetant government … that is how dire this government is …. and this is what the people who actiually lives in that state says about the ALP …. not the people who live in Adelaide or Melbourne …. who actually have no idea

  14. Toorak Toff with due respect the reason why NSW might have a triple AAA rating might have something to do wth the fact that the Australian economy is very strong and overseas investors tend to view Sydney as Australia.

    That triple AAA rating has more to do with the outstanding economy management of the Gillard/Rudd/Swan ALP Government than the NSW Government that appears from sitting here in Melbourne to be poorly run.

  15. >>They thinks having a big and expensive public service

    >> the public section union

    >>had probably not went to work from Paramatta to the city

    Is what Ron has catching or is this ungrammatical sentence construction a consequence of post-moderni education?

  16. Meanwhile here in Toonga Bay incumbent Nathan Rees is under challenge from blonde, mother-of-one Kristy Lloyd who is standing in the Liberal interest.

    In the election material we have received from her to date suggests that she will “campaign to improve local roads and public transport… local health services … education” but note not a word actually outline how the Liberal party will actually achieve these or even what these aims mean.

    For example in the case of “local roads” given that the area is adjacent to three major highways which basically ensure that no part of the Sydney metropolitan area is much more than an hours drive away even in peak hours and that we have a pretty good train service. The one area that could be improved is the buses but as these are the fiefdom (under several brands) of the powerful ComfortDelGro Cabcharge behemoth it is hard to see what could be done in this area. As for education the likely new minister the gun-loving National Adrian Picolli is generally not in favour of it (especially that of the publicly funded variety).

    So it is hard to see what improvements Ms Lloyd has in mind for the electors of Toongabbie.

    In her flyer she makes great play that she works for the Royal institute for Deaf and Blind Children and volunteers for the Cancer Council. It would be interesting to know if these organisations have authorised the use of their names in her election literature.

  17. Albert Ross #168 – Dovif is either two people or perhaps 1 person with two personalities. One of these people uses grammatical English, the other has a truly bizarre understanding of verb declensions. I have always assumed that they use a common computer in Liberal headquarters and obviously ungrammatical Dovif is on duty today.

  18. OC

    One of me is called de working me … where I will look at the idiots posting on here and decides to quickly abuse them.

    The other me is called the non working me … where I get time to re read my posting.

    I have never been a member of the Liberal or ALP, let alone work for them

  19. No -its more than that – the errors aren’t typos – you consistently get the number, tense and person of the verbs wrong, often in a bizarre way. I have often wondered the origin – it is not the common Asian error of ellipsising verbs but I have never heard anyone speak in the way the “working you” writes.

  20. Albert Ross

    @168 and @175

    in both you refered to me despite fact I’ve not made a post on this Thread
    So I’ll quote William Bowe’s words to you last time you complemented me

    William Bowe
    Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 2:01 pm | Permalink

    “Be less of a wanker please, Albert Ross.”

  21. Ron

    Oooh aaaah – I bet you have that bookmarked. What a thrill that must have been – a political scientist defending an ALP hack. Even with this great “comeback” you are unable to find the right words to use. Go back to school – they have remedial classes – ih wait – the ALP is underfunding those…

  22. Actually PY, whilst I don’t disagree about how it looks, Verity and Carmel are about the only two worth keeping IMO.

    Most interesting was the job he resigned. And the number of blasts from the past popping up as directors on those state owned utilities. Knight, Yeadon, etc. Even “tipsy” Knowles is getting a gig we’re told on the front page of the SMH. It’s always good to have friends in Canberra, much more useful than the Macquarie St mob in present circumstances…

    I’m sure there are many NSW ALP MPs and identities, past and present, who can survive perfectly well outside the nomenklatura system. But it doesn’t appear to be part of the DNA to even try. Dunno what they’re going to do with themselves in 8 weeks…

  23. The drug possession arrest does make it much harder for the ALP to run a drugs scare campaign against The Greens. I doubt it will change much in Balmain itself, but it certainly won’t help the ALP there (not like when Kevin’s strip club visit was revealed).

  24. [I’m sure you’d find it far more rewarding than spending eighteen hours a day posting snotty comments on this blog.]

    frankie V
    stop using drugs and your time comprehension will (hopefully) return

    and what comment was snotty or did you mean snooty

    Seek help soon, old chasp

  25. No. They, together with Costa and Della Bosca, are a good reason for upper house reform – I personally favour abolition but making politicians responsible to a local electorate is also preferable to the current situation. Interestingly, despite their power within the party, Costa, Della and Roozendaal were all rebuffed by local branches when they were sniffing around for an LA electorate. Della was even talking about being premier from the Council when all his other options closed. The only one to get a jacket is John Robertson, of whom Keating was “ashamed to share membership of the same party”. I suspect his candidature is the only factor that would cause Labor to lose Blacktown – on 22%.

  26. One positive task for whoever wins the next NSW election should be upper house reform. Agree with Oakeshott that politicians should be reponsible to a local electorate. The Vic Upper House system works well, there are defined regions, terms are the same as the lower house, and there is the possibility that the larger smaller (apologies for the apparent oxymoron but couldn’t find a better way of putting it) parties such as the Greens can get a guernsey from the voters. 5 or 7 member electorates relating back to lower house seats. No more table cloth ballot papers or sectional micro parties like the shooters, CDP or 4 wheel drivers or whatever they are.

  27. Oakshott It must bee killiung u that your belooved ALP is so imcompetant and corrupt so I campletely uhnderstand why you have nothing tosay

  28. From the safe, somnambulent suburbs of Adelaide, I have been witness through the eyes and ears of the internet, and my best friend in Sydney, of the unnatural disaster that is the NSW Labor Government.

    My friend, who is an expat Croweater and part time psephologist, cannot understand how it all went so wrong, but she experiences incompetence and indifference in the state public service; a completely un-integrated and unwieldy public transport system; notices deteriorated and out of date infrastructure; and says her work colleagues are ashamed of their government.

    Of course, these are generalisations, but the her perception as an outsider is pretty much as is reported, that the government are going to be hammered, and that there is palpable anger in the community that is still building.

    So, my post is going to concentrate on what the NSW Labor Party should do – purely for psephological purposes.

    1. Set a line in the sand, accept strategic losses – probably around the 15% margin – and put in fast vanishing resources into the winnable seats only.
    2. Admit at the beginning of the campaign that they will lose government – and by a lot. Say that the incoming Liberal Government will need to be checked by a strong opposition, otherwise they could do anything. Back this up with a scare campaign on this – pointing to polling and everything. “You are going to get a Liberal Government anyway – so keep this seat Labor” and WTTE. For local MPs who are popular, push the line – “The Labor Government will lose – but keep Joe Blow working for you”.
    If the ALP brains trust think going in with the line “we can still win it”, the public will make sure they lose every possible seat. I saw how the SA Premier in 93 said “We can still win this” the day before the election and voters were coming up to the booth deliberately voting for the Liberals, bypassing Democrats and Independents saying “Can’t afford for them to win it”. ALP insiders tell me that line cost 5 seats (out of 18 lost) more than expected in polling. Even the Liberals were stunned and a few turkeys got accidentally elected for them.
    3. KKK needs to say that she will be resigning as Labor leader when they lose. Her tactic has to be “Sorry, we let you down, the Liberals will win and I’ll be gone” and highlight the policy vaccuum that is the NSW Liberals.
    4. As by now you will have gathered these tactics will lessen the effect of the predicted swings, and save some bums on seats for the ALP Opposition. The swings will be all over the place, and preference deals will need to be worked out with minors and independents not so much to send prefs to Labor, but keep them from going to the Liberals or potentially winning indys.
    5. If the ALP in NSW would like to hire me as a consultant for further advice, I will accept on condition I am employed anonymously and I don’t have to vote for them either.
    Finally, apart from localised campaigns, I don’t believe for a second Sussex Street will do this and NSW Labor will be annihilated.

  29. @191…… don’t agree with everything you say… but this is an intelligent post interesting cf to
    sa 1993… double the seats of that election result and get similar to what the opinion polls are suggesting for nsw

  30. The NSW election campaign is about to get underway this weekend with a major speech by the Premier.

    can you imagine it? 50 days of campaigning?

    Perhaps the ALP is going to try and bore the electorate into changing their vote.


    Bob Hawke doesn’t think the NSW ALP can win.

    …better tell Gus and Green Growler, they don’t seem to have got it yet.

  32. [Mod

    I intend to go down with the ship

    if it goes down, that is]

    You know Gus, perhaps Hawkie is playing a game of reverse psychology here- telling people Labor cant win so enough feel sorry for them and vote Labor???

    Then KK chimes in with a “sorry”, perhaps all NSW needed to hear (“heading in the right direction” being taken and all)

    It could work…actually, no.

    They should hope to save 20 though.

  33. Gusface

    Did they tell you the ship you are on is unsinkable, the S.S. Titanic?

    Are the pollsters even going to bother with polling the NSW election, we have not even had a poll yet!!!

  34. You gotta give credit where credit is due- KK today:

    1. We all know governments are never elected on their record
    2. I recognise there is a movement for change….thats why I have changed the ALP
    3. The Opposition have had 16 years to come up with a manifesto (to preempt the you have had 16 years to govern what have you done)
    4. NSW ALP has been the standout economic manager
    5. I’m sorry

    Wonderful mixed messages, internal contradictions and master spin- all with a broad smile!

    Will the ALP primary vote hit the teens in any polling before the election (it wont be there on the day of course)?

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