Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. “Julia is from the left??? what is “left” in this context? ”

    Precisely what i listed in #4496 and #4499
    Whereas as i tolds you bfore you is so far out of th left spectrums youse is in non core left values radical lands such that you make One Nation look like they is a Centre party , and in reverse they make youse look like youse is a Centre rite party Thats is what a fringe group of either politcal extreme of society always is

  2. [But the ALP lurves anything from the US of A!]
    Since when? I have doubts about the tests, but the website is fine. Other than the schools testing exactly what else does the ALP ‘lurve’ from the USA?

  3. Puff

    Try these few:

    1. War in Afganistan, Iraq or anywhere USA wants,

    2. Australian media full of US content, especially chldrens programmes

    3. first time in Australian history our troops have to wear US uniforms in Afganistan

    4. Agreement with the anti-Australian US-Free Trade agreement which removes any controls on Australian content on our media

    5. Condemnation of an Australian (Assage) for publishing leaked (by an American!!) low grade documents that may embarres US politicians.

  4. Puff

    I did not know that “American” was a race…. If it is please define what is the American race?

    Dumb me thought the US or north America was a nation..

  5. Before the 2007 elections Conroy promised that they would remove adds from SBS, after elections he said they could not afford it (I know this will surprise you all).. then he waived the licence fees of commercial TV .. lol

    I know there are serious. solemn and not to be questioned reasons for everything an ALP plolitician says .. but for me ……i fall over laughing ….

  6. [radicalmarsupialPosted Tuesday, January 25, 2011 at 1:31 am | PermalinkBefore the 2007 elections Conroy promised that they would remove adds from SBS, after elections he said they could not afford it (I know this will surprise you all).. then he waived the licence fees of commercial TV .. lol
    I know there are serious. solemn and not to be questioned reasons for everything an ALP plolitician says .. but for me ……i fall over laughing ….

    Perhaps they entailed changing variopus acts of parliament – which had to pass a Hostile Senate ??

  7. [ Before the 2007 elections Conroy promised that they would remove adds from SBS ]

    radicalmarsupial, just as a fact checking exorcise, could you please provide a source for that?

    According to, this is the policy Labor took to the 2007 election:

    [ Labor’s SBS Policy

    Labor considers the SBS an icon of Australian broadcasting. By providing both multicultural and multilingual broadcasts that aim to educate and entertain Australians of all backgrounds, the SBS plays an important social and cultural role in Australia and one that Labor champions.

    Labor recognises that greater Commonwealth funding would assist the SBS to produce and broadcast more programs and news and current affairs bulletins for Australian viewers.

    At its National Conference in April 2007, Labor acknowledged the importance of the SBS and committed Labor to ensuring adequate funding and support for the SBS, to enable it to continue to provide Australians with high quality services, free from political and commercial interference.

    In order to ensure the independence of the SBS, Labor will make sure that all future SBS Board candidates are selected on the basis of merit. Candidates will be considered by a panel established at arm’s length from the Minister. The Minister will then appoint Board members from a short list prepared by the panel.

    Labor has opposed and continues to oppose the decision by SBS to introduce in-program advertising.

    SBS maintains that they can put advertisements into their programs without there needing to be a change to legislation.

    Section 45 of the SBS Act 1991 provides for advertising only during periods before programs commence, after programs end, or during natural program breaks. Accordingly, Labor is concerned that the SBS’s action may place it in breach of the Act.

    Senator Conroy pursued this matter with SBS at Senate Estimates in October 2006 (see: ) and again at Senate Estimates in May 2007 (see: ). ]

  8. Radical Marsupial (may I call you Candles? You so remind me of another pugnacious twerp.) it ill behoves any card waving member of the party of “all the way with LBJ” and “I did but see her passing by” to raise sycophancy as an article of derision, whatever the company.

  9. So the Mallard and Ward Cases are worth less cause it’s Labor’s Fault ??

    Umm Christian – the Mallard Debacle took place when Richard Court was in Govt you Testa di Cazzo.

    [Mr Porter said Const. Butcher’s payment could not be compared to the previous cases and in no way diminished the incidents of Mr Ward and Mr Mallard.
    “In the case of Mr Ward and Mr Mallard, they were recognition of a failure on the part of the State, the previous Labor government,“ he said.
    “In this instance it couldn’t be said that what we are recognising is a failure on the part of the State Government.
    “Rather we are recognising the fact a very brave individual in service of the public and in an attempt to protect the public, put himself at enormous risk, suffered a horrific act of violence and has now had their life changed in a way none of us would have wished for.”
    with AAP]

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