Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Oh well, no Newspoll as yet. Probably means it’s good for Labor and they’ll bury it for a week…or more, if that’s what’s needed. Off to bed for me.

  2. [There won’t be a Newspoll result released tonight.]

    Was there a Newspoll taken over the weekend and not released, or one was not taken over the weekend and so can’t be released?

  3. confessions
    Posted Monday, January 24, 2011 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    “My remarks are in relation to the absurd fascination some have with the PM’s hands, her clothes, her hair and her voice in the wake of the worst flood disasters we’ve seen in living memory. If these fascinations are to be believed the PM is unfit to run the country.

    As the flood of ironic observations in relation to Ted have intuited, where is the same criticism for a genuinely appalling presenter of a leader? ”

    I shall answer your Q diplomatic and quiet tactful ,
    because Julia is a lady , and some men is sexists and when chalenged run like hairs afraid there mouse defense wont hold as they know its politcal incorrect to admit that thet is obvous from there attitudes This patthetic meme started in msn is now infiltarted PB , and from sexism base sometimes its then used as an aditional sword to trash labor itself given Julia is Labor’s pinnacle in oz I could be a little more blunt at a barby

  4. [GhostWhoVotesPosted Monday, January 24, 2011 at 10:49 pm | PermalinkThere won’t be a Newspoll result released tonight.

    Reason why ??

    60-40 ALP PPM Gillard 95% Abbott 5%

    Question on Flood Levy – 100% Yes – 0% No 🙂

  5. Hmmm. Definitely one due, according to the last 4 years of Newsy’s history. Maybe they’re worried that the floods will skew the results (or that QLDers will be unable to be properly sampled) – or, if you want, that they think that’s the reason behind a sharp swing to Labor 😉

  6. Ron:

    Whatever it is, it’s disappointing. We have our country’s first woman PM, yet the juvenile obsessions of some can’t get past that icky girl stuff. Truly immature.

  7. redwombat

    [Cant wait for them to bring out “Tits of the Berlusconi Years” 🙂 ]

    Would be longer than War & Peace! 😉

    People could go blind before they finished the book.

    Or have hair growing on the palms of their hand! 😉

  8. confessions,

    [We still don’t know whether a Newspoll was taken and not released, or not taken at all.]

    What ever the reason is, I bet it will stir up Bushfire Bill somewhat. 😉

  9. Frank, I really am going to go to bed now, but a lot of us were really worried about you last weekend and it sounded like a ghastly time for you. Is there anything I could do from a distance, from a social work angle, that might help? I’ll check in again tomorrow or William has my permission to give you my email address. Hope you’re feeling better, anyway.

  10. I assume we won’t get a Newspoll until the first week of parliament in early February.

    Another thought: Did anyone see Rudd & Joyce on the news tonight, urging us all to keep buying Aussie fruit & veggies?
    Who’d have thought that Kevin and Barnyard actually like each other? 😉

  11. confessions
    Posted Monday, January 24, 2011 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Whatever it is, it’s disappointing. We have our country’s first woman PM, yet the juvenile obsessions of some can’t get past that icky girl stuff. Truly immature.”

    perhaps I’m too blunt for most here who is used to civilised talk , but you may take my #4457 2 issues as unfortunate truths , a pity , and Julia will keep carrying it is even more th pity

  12. Rudd and Joyce and Mesma all went to the Vatican gig, when our Mary was made a saint, and the 3 of them were getting on like a house on fire.

  13. Repeat of a great documentary on ABC1 ‘The Bridge’.

    Some familiar themes including the conservatives wanting Lang to abandon infrastructure spending to cope with other issues.

  14. I’m quite happy with what I saw of the Government on TV tonight: Julia, Swan, Shorten, Rudd etc.
    In contrast, Sloppy is wandering around some rural area, bleating about big new taxes.

  15. I’d prefer for someone other than Nadal or Federer to win this time – Murray perhaps is due.
    The women’s singles looks very open, Aussie Kim isn’t a certainty either.

  16. What’s the verdict on the new George Negus program?
    Looked fairly ordinary to me – not much of a threat to Nine & Seven News.

  17. Confessions , i personal learnt no othr way , but I realized those that followed at least did need to learn when to and diff is amazing but then our young is much clever I feel

  18. Ron:

    Our country’s first female PM has thrown up all kinds of knockers and doubters. Disappointingly among the so-called progressive voters, whose criticisms have been along the juvenile lines of her appearance rather than the substantive line of what she does.

  19. Julia is female , an athiest , is unmarried , is clever as ex lawer , is from th left of labor…so is th model candidate of th fringe progressives , but her traditional left Labor values is in sharp contradicton to those views so they wish to bring her down by back door supafical means on one hand , and/or that sexism attidude of many males is another factor used w/o courage against her

    i think what she has done in IR and education as a Minister were impressive incl detroying basis of W/C , and since becoming PM she;’s backed NBN progress , establsihed CC panel to get a carbon price , continiued MRB process to save Murray , tryin to save A-S from more drownings via an orderly A-S off shore timor base , incr doctos & nurses and Hospital funds , got a Nat Educ Sylabuss off & a review for educ funding for next Nat Scools com Agree , set up proceess for oz’s first supa tax on Miners worht billions to th public , is reforming Health levy , la da da These is core left progressive substanse things done/doing , and people wish to worry about her cloths or how she talks I’m proud of her

  20. Puffy

    I had to stop from finishing list , our unemploy is under 5% th key is jobs for working peoples its most equity thing of all to provide by left core Labor (USA unemploy is offical 9.6% but per there sussy means closer t 15% and Europe is worser) , inflation is low by wordls stds another equity measure for working peoples , our debt to GDP { is only 6 % and is lowest of all advansed econamies (USA is 70% , mosts of EU is over 100%) , gays well she suported over 100 changes removnig discrims from Fed laws ! 9tax , supa , benefits ets and also made gays equal footin to Hextro Defacto couples la da da I shall stop Julia is wonderful left progssive labor PM so i dont care how she talks or what blue pants suite she wears

  21. Julia introduces some second-rate USA “my schools” testing.

    The best education system in the west is Finland , not the USA

    But the ALP lurves anything from the US of A!!

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