Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.

The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).

UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.

UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,520 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Thanks, Boerwar for clarifying for Puff. I’ve put him to bed and he seems O.K.. Recovery takes time, it would seem.

  2. HSO
    I would like to point you to, if I say so myself, my particularly detailed analysis on PB of the Rodent but I cannot remember where it is. Something along the lines of
    [two faced, lying liar who lies?]
    featured in there, but I do not think I was too harsh. :devil:

  6. William, I just noticed in your links to election guides on the side of this page, you have under the SA Election 2010 heading “Legislative Assembly”. The lower house of SA is the “House of Assembly”

    Yes, I know that’s been up there for 10 months. I’m slow, ok? 😆

  7. confessions

    I don’t want to start an untoward rumour, but since the entire MSM does so, I have heard it suggested that Ted has a piercing in a … particular place.

    Personally, I don’t believe it for a second. And even if it happened to be true, it would not affect his capacity to be a premier by even one tit or jottle.

  9. Well, Puff, all I can say is that we are in complete agreement. I think it ought to be highlighted every time one of these creatures utters yet another lie that that is what they are doing. I’m still in some degree of confusion as to how that might be done, given the current MSM set up.

  11. Now lets see:

    * The greatest continent on earth – The Republik of Australia has got a female Head State – the GG

    * The greatest country on Earth has a female PM – Julia Gillard

    * The First State a female Premier – K2

    * The perfect State – Anna “The Great” Bligh

    * The most beautiful State – Tassie – a female Premier – what’s her name

    What’s the matter with Vic, SA and WA? We should expel them from the Republik of Australia.

  22. [Now tell me what you were referring to?]
    Certain thoughts spout; words follow. If that particular line of thought continues you will be dismembered.

  24. [Personally, I don’t believe it for a second. And even if it happened to be true, it would not affect his capacity to be a premier by even one tit or jottle.]

    Of course not.

    The wrong hand movements on the other hand…..

  27. PTMD has hidden depths, I fear.

    WARNING: DEFINITELY NOT for the faint-hearted. As a jape, I googled: ‘Prince Albert, piercing’ got the Wikipedia entry, as it were, and, lo:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Albert_piercing

    In line with various of Wm’s policies and to keep our minds on politics and psephology, I would like to point out that Prince Albert was not democratically elected, did not give a rat’s arse about overdue Newspoll findings, and never bothered his peaceful existence with focus groups.

  28. [Personally, I don’t believe it for a second. And even if it happened to be true, it would not affect his capacity to be a premier by even one tit or jottle.]

    i dont think Father Ted’s voice is as sexy as Howie.

  29. Or jacket colour.

    Wasn’t it the ABC’s newly minted social media ‘expert’ who coined the twitter hashtag of #anotherwhitejacket when it comes to the PM’s wardrobe? Truly substantive stuff!

  30. [As the poet tells us, the very nature of this continent is shaped by

    “drought and by flooding rain”. Nothing could have been further from the

    undulating hills of England, Ireland and Wales. This is a continent of

    extremes.

    Of scorching fire. Of seemingly endless drought. Often broken by floods, as

    we have been reminded, of biblical proportions.

    But this is Australia. It is the Australia we love. It is the Queensland we

    love. We may tame her. But we will never subdue her.

    Because the forces of nature once unleashed, can crush all that lies before

    them.]

    guess who

  31. [The FinnigansPosted Monday, January 24, 2011 at 10:07 pm | PermalinkNow lets see:
    * The greatest continent on earth – The Republik of Australia has got a female Head State – the GG
    * The greatest country on Earth has a female PM – Julia Gillard
    * The First State a female Premier – K2
    * The perfect State – Anna “The Great” Bligh
    * The most beautiful State – Tassie – a female Premier – what’s her name
    What’s the matter with Vic, SA and WA? We should expel them from the Republik of Australia.
    ]

    Ahem, You’ve forgotten Mesdames Kirner and Lawerence who were recruited to clean up the mess left by John Cain and Peter Dowding – before being booted out by those Robotic Liberals Kennett & Court ?

  41. Hmmm, just checked the Oz site and de nada on the Newspoll, as BK said already. OTOH:

    (1) Newt Gingrich may be signalling a run for Pres.

    (2) Rudd thinks the Aussie spirit is in our bones and marrow, which I think is an odd place to keep the Aussie spirit, I mean to say, ‘marrow bone jelly?’

    *goes to bed, hopefully avoiding all thoughts of Queen Victoria’s consort*

  47. Finny,
    I caught part of Tassie’s new Premier’s presser, she was talking about being single and maybe meeting the right blioke someday WTF?.

    I assume some dill asked her the question.

  48. Finns,

    [Well, Their ABC keeps on reminding us that that Tassie Devil is childless and marriageless.
    ]

    Why is that even a topic of conversation. I read two articles today and both stated the same thing.

  49. I heard Ted Bailleau say a few days ago he wont oppose a levy in principal but would leave it to Julia as it was natonal issue , his Nats deputy Ryan a day later came out and opposed a levy I dont see an issue with Bailleau’s then stanse at all

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