Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.
The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).
UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.
UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).
Boerwar,
Hey, dude, we’s dross?
The “press” (funny term, that) lauded a first, saying specifically that there now have been female leaders of all states and territories except SA. I was “added value.”
BK
Laurie Oakes accused Gillard and the Rabbott of being political pygmies!
Ted’s response should have been along the lines of “At the end of the day if that is the responsible thing to do then so be it”.
victoria @ 4248
Yes, he played it with a pretty straight bat. He obviously would not want to dump on his own side, but neither was there much aid and comfort for Rabbott.
BK
My take on Ted was that he fully understands the costs involved in the recovery. He is not interested in bolstering his Federal counterparts. He wants what is best for Victoria. If it means a levy, so be it. I could be wrong, but this was my reading of it.
[Laurie Oakes accused Gillard and the Rabbott of being political pygmies!]
At least he isn’t playing favourites.
[Can you imagine if Carnell was Labor?]
The lady is a chimp. Labor develops apes.
[
I should add that my reading of Ted is that he is not giving any support to the Rabbott and his position.
]
vic,
My impression up to now has been that Red Ted isn’t opposed to a levy. We shall see
Pebbles @ 4243,
[Exactly. And it’s on at 6pm on a commercial network. My bet is one finger is already hovering over the “cancel/retool” button. If we turn our noses up at it completely, you can guarantee the topic du jour in no time will be best value toasters and evil welfare scammers.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHso1e6NY90
On that note the hilarious CNNNN is now being repeated on 7mate on Monday nights.
Who can logically oppose a flood levy?
I can only think of two groups. Political opportunists and sad gits who don’t give a stuff about others.
vic
I have just seen Ted on 7:30. Actually he was quite reasonable. I withdraw my previous comment.
[My impression up to now has been that Red Ted isn’t opposed to a levy. We shall see]
That’s been my impression too from the media appearances i’ve seen of him.
[Sorry, my deeply subtle wit eluded you, but in your fragile state you are forgiven.]
lizzie
Its funny, when I was typing ‘bare’ it didn’t feel right but moi let it slide, just as moi did with your wit. 🙂
[LAURIE OAKES: No, I mean some of the best leaks, or leakers, are people at the bottom. Because politicians and senior bureaucrats talk in front of cleaners and car drivers as though they’re not there, I mean it’s class thing. And people like that hear everything and sometimes they’re not all that discreet about what they hear, which is great for journalism. ]
Ok, Laurie, so who was it then when you tried to decide the election last year?
That’s right, if you’d said it was the cleaner rather than a fellow Cabinet member, it would not have damaged Gillard Labor as much.
Darren,
Maybe it is about time I applied to be a cleaner in parliament or a commonwealth government driver!
Maybe that is the way to influence politics 😉
If a leak is from a “senior source” does that mean it comes from an old cleaner? 😆
There is a moving memorial to Katie Bender on the shores of Lake Burley Griffin, between Albert Hall and the lake shore. I think she was 13.
Yes, Katie Bender.
I couldn’t remember if she’d died or not.
[Scant fruit supplies worry shoppers ]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/scant-fruit-supplies-worry-shoppers/story-fn3dxity-1225993789735
Except they don’t.
[Coles spokesman Jim Cooper said most items had been unaffected by the big wet that spread across Queensland and much of the eastern states.
“But when I say most, of course that means some lines have been affected,” he told AAP today.
“Broadly speaking, it has affected chillies, onions, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, broccoli – and those are all mostly a result of the Queensland damage.”]
Now I mean, where is the “fruit”? Yeah technically a tomato is a fruit, maybe. But wot a load of gibberish.
Dee
I can tell you are in need of much TLC. I think you need a soothing syrup of opium and honey. Seriously, there were some good old medicines that worked, until it was decided that they were too dangerous for mere mortals to dope themselves with.
[Maybe it is about time I applied to be a cleaner in parliament or a commonwealth government driver!
Maybe that is the way to influence politics]
You’d have a better chance that way than being some sort of “media adviser” that’s for sure!
ru @ 4269
Not only that, but if my memory is correct, prices for peaches, nectarines etc are lower than last year and the quality is as good or better. The only apparent shortage is mangoes.
Hey, but why let truth get in the way of a good story?
btw, good to see Frank back!
Keep up the good fight, Mr Calabrese.
[Maybe it is about time I applied to be a cleaner ]
Kiddo, if getting a call from Diog turns you on, then go ahead and make my day.
bemused, Ru
The only shortage we have had on the GC is dairy i.e milk. It has been very thin on the ground since after the floods, however, every day we are getting closer and closer to full stock.
Fruit is lower than before the floods and I haven’t seen any real degradation of quality. Some vegies are in thinner stocks but the prices have remained static. The only thing I have seen increase in price is limes. They went from $2.99 kg to $9.99.
I have some really old cookbooks, I love some of the simple recipes. I was looking for an old “new” pudding one day.
One took my fancy but the missing ingredient was laudanum. Wot a way to end a meal. 🙂
Just on Baillieu, have there been any calls for more emotion or more leadership from him? From what I’ve seen of him he’s been quite ‘wooden’. 😆
ruawake
What a fantastic cookbook.
Finns,
In Vera’s immortal words, “You are a Norty dolphin” 😉
Boerwar,
Katie bender’s memorial would be on the Acton Peninsula? Haven’t seen it: the bastards who chopped down The Royal Canberra Hospital (4 kids born there) should be dealt with severely. Yarramundi Reach is the perfect location for a museum.
sk @ 4275
And I bet limes are a major item in the CPI basket :/
She was 13,
confessions @ 4277
Absolutely! But that is how he is and there is no scope for improvement (not that I would want it).
The difference is, I want those on ‘my side’ to perform to their capability.
Kiddo, Diog gets his tips from “the top”, meaning the cleaner
Bemused,
If you are a bacardi and lime drinker, I am sure you would be shattered, despite the impact on the CPI 😆
[Just on Baillieu, have there been any calls for more emotion or more leadership from him? From what I’ve seen of him he’s been quite ‘wooden’. ]
And what about his hair colour, earlobes and handbag choice?
Where are the comments about those?
Finns,
I thought you claimed Dio got his news limited.
[Katie bender’s memorial would be on the Acton Peninsula? Haven’t seen it: the bastards who chopped down The Royal Canberra Hospital (4 kids born there) should be dealt with severely. Yarramundi Reach is the perfect location for a museum.]
I suspect the memorial is on the other side of the lake since that’s where the horrific accident occurred. (As BW described)
bemused:
Any links to those calls for Baillieu to improve his presentation?
The first time I ever really saw him was in the town hall debate during the campaign. He was underwhelming then too.
Finns,
I suppose the bonus is that Laurie Oakes would be my new bestie! 😉
[And I bet limes are a major item in the CPI basket :/ ]
I have a monster kafir lime tree in my garden. It amazes me the price people pay for a few grams of leaves.
bemused,
Buy the lime squeeze till the prices get better. Else, add a tiny bit of chilli paste or flakes to lemon juice. Cut down on a tad on added liquid.
vp
Katie’s family were attending the demolition but on the opposite shore to the old hospital. The memorial is where she died. I tmust have been a horrendous moment for them.
I remember not feeling right about the demolition and strongly resisting my family’s desperate pleas to attend – we were just up the road from LBG at the time.
Afterwards, they wanted to know how I knew that it was not going to go right.
I have no idea except that I had a feeling that politics, not safety, was driving the preparations.
The footage of the ‘implosion’ showed pieces of shrapnel landing all over LBG – including between sight seer boats.
The really suprising thing about it was that there was only one casualty.
sk @ 4285
Either you are a bit heavy on the lime or you should hardly notice the difference. Substitute more bacardi 👿
[I have a monster kafir lime tree in my garden. It amazes me the price people pay for a few grams of leaves.]
Ru, me tree. i put them in most things, they smell so nice.
bemused,
I am all for more alcohol!
[I am all for more alcohol!]
Kiddo, and you call me “norty”?
confessions @ 4289
None known to me and none expected either. Men in dark suits all look like… well, men in dark suits.
The Ted we see is the same one that has always been there, the one that got elected and the one we are stuck with for a while.
It says a lot that no-one expects any difference. Don’t look for any excitement from Ted.
[From what I’ve seen of him he’s been quite ‘wooden’.]
Demmit, you beat me to it. That was going to be my line!
Finns,
Birds of a feather…. 😆