Newspoll looks to be taking a week longer to return than I expected, but Essential Research was back in action yesterday with a poll showing no change in voting intention since the previous survey on December 20: the Coalition leads 52-48 on two-party preferred, with primary votes of 46 per cent for the Coalition, 38 per cent for Labor and 10 per cent for the Greens. Unusually, the two-survey rolling average for the latest figures encompasses polling done last week and in mid-December, suggesting little change in sentiment over the break. While Labor remains where it was on voting intention, Julia Gillard has enjoyed a spike in her personal ratings. Her approval is up eight points to 51 per cent and her disapproval down four to 36 per cent – her best figures since July 19 – and her lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 45-34 to 47-32. Tony Abbott’s ratings have improved as well: approval up three to 42 per cent and disapproval down two to 37 per cent. Other questions in the survey related to respondents’ online shopping habits.
The Australian Electoral Commission has also published the full report for the redistribution of Victorian federal electoral boundaries. I don’t believe Antony Green has calculated margins for this redistribution (he did for the more radical first version, which was entirely abandoned after a generally negative response), but I have it on pretty reliable authority that the Labor marginals list runs Corangamite (little change, with the margin still under 0.5 per cent), Deakin (pared back from 2.4 per cent to about 0.5 per cent) and La Trobe (a very slight boost but still around 1 per cent), followed by a big gap before Chisholm (6 per cent), Bruce (8 per cent), Melbourne Ports (8 per cent), McEwen (a four point boost to 9 per cent) and Bendigo (9 per cent). On the other side of the ledger, the 1.8 per cent Liberal margin in Aston has been cut to almost nothing, while Dunkley is unchanged on 1.0 per cent – beyond that are Casey (2 per cent), McMillan (4 per cent) and clusters of traditionally safe seats around 6 per cent (Wannon, Higgins and Goldstein) and 9 per cent (Menzies, Flinders and Indi).
UPDATE (24/1): Crikey reports this week’s Essential Research has Labor gaining a point to trail 51-49. The poll also inquired into various leaders’ handling of the flood crises, with 77 per cent rating Anna Bligh favourably against 6 per cent poor; 61 per cent against 4 per cent for Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman; 42 per cent against 23 per cent for Julia Gillard; 19 per cent against 32 per cent for Tony Abbott; 34 per cent against 8 per cent for Ted Baillieu; and 21 per cent against 23 per cent for Kristina Keneally.
UPDATE 2: Full report here. Primary vote figures show there’s not much in the shift on two-party: both the Coalition (45 per cent) and Labor (37 per cent) are down a point. Also covered are “most important issues in deciding how you would vote” (“ensuring a quality education for all children” down from 32 per cent to 23 per cent, for some reason) and best party at handling important issues (results much as you would expect).
any gamers out there wil love this
http://mashable.com/2011/01/21/dotdotdot/
[Did your GP advise what to do about pain relief from coughing?]
Grin & bare it! 🙁
Just about fell over when she told me the surgery nurse had the cough for 10 months.
On the Essential Poll.
Since when did the future of the ALP hang on the Essential polling????
Bemused @ 4097……
…… “Maybe I missed it, maybe it happened, but I didn’t see it……” …
You did miss it….it did happen….and you didn’t want to see it…….
My sources in SA Labor say a decision is yet to be made on who will replace Rann. It sounds like it’s Rau vs Weatherill.
They know they have little chance of winning the next election and think Weatherill would let them lose gracefully and then Rau could take over. However Weatherill is too far to the Left for some to agree to that.
Well, we shan’t be watching Negus regularly. We were very disappointed.
First thing he did was to attack the PM with mention of Rudd. At the end of interview “What score would you give yourself on your performance in the floods?”
Then there were rehashes of 2010 by Riminton.
It was all reworked old msm stuff and we eventually turned off.
In fact we are seriously considering not bothering with TV news for a while. And this from a news junkie – me!
[Er Joe why worry about skill shortages now? Your mob ignored them for a decade.]
rua
Like on many other nation-building pursuits.
TSOP:
There is probably something in there about the limited role of an opposition leader. But you can’t not consider Tone’s divisive and politicised comments during the floods in terms of his poor polling in Essential.
Dee
[Grin & bare it!]
The pain is in your chest, yes??? Was that a deliberate mistake 🙂
I’m not really laughing. I had Whooping cough as a school age child, and I remember sitting on the dining room floor on a rug, holding a pottie, so that every time I coughed I could be sick without making a mess.
Dio, I think one thing that scares the Labor Right is what if they get Weatherill to lose the election (thus sink his aspirations too) and he actually manages to turn things around? There will be egg on their faces.
I think Weatherill will be leader eventually, but I think he will be very beholden to the Right, where he is just a puppet of the Right faction run government. Much like a certain progressive Labor leader who ended up being the figurehead of a very right wing state government…
(BTW, not trying to undersell the achievements of the Rann govt. It is still one of the better governments we’ve had and it really pulled this state out of a huge rut.)
lizzie
Essential polling has nearly always failed to rate a mention in the MSM.
I note now, Essential is being used to whack the ALP. Well, that’s the angle Negus was coming from.
Seems Essentials profile has been lifted since favouring the Coalition.
lizzie, I thought 6 with George was pretty good. I’ll give it another go.
[There is probably something in there about the limited role of an opposition leader. But you can’t not consider Tone’s divisive and politicised comments during the floods in terms of his poor polling in Essential.]
That did cross my mind. But how much coverage in mainstreamland did that really get?
[My sources in SA Labor say a decision is yet to be made on who will replace Rann.]
Diog, you mean the cleaners?
uawake
Posted Monday, January 24, 2011 at 7:17 pm | Permalink
“Gary
Correct 2
This is when Bligh was giving updates every two hours. Yet Gillard now seems to have committed the sin of attending two pressers next to Bligh.”
but Julia comitted an even worser sin , she did not try to outshine Anna ,
if Julia had of then msn would hav to think of anothr anti Julia meme ,
tho she is a woman , that should be enuf
Dee
Somehow I expected more of Negus – more imagination, more freshness of approach. If he’s just going to do the same old, same old, it won’t be the young George I used to know, it will be old, tired George on a last sinecure before retirement.
Surely it must be Newspoll night tonight?
Then all these other upstart pollsters will be put back in their box by the poll that must be obeyed.
[Well, we shan’t be watching Negus regularly.]
Lizzie, not only i wont venture to the forbidden planet, but also not someone who sold himself to the evil empire for 12 pieces of silver.
madcyril
Perhaps you’re the young demographic they’re aiming for 😆
Finns
I mean right from the top.
markjs @ 4203
Definitely WRONG on the “and you didn’t want to see it…” and I suspect the other 2 as well.
lizzie
[The pain is in your chest, yes??? Was that a deliberate mistake]
Nah!
The pain is in all the muscles attached to the chest & ribs. They feel like they have been torn.
Finns
According to Laurie, cleaners are some of the best sources 👿
[
LAURIE OAKES: No, I mean some of the best leaks, or leakers, are people at the bottom. Because politicians and senior bureaucrats talk in front of cleaners and car drivers as though they’re not there, I mean it’s class thing. And people like that hear everything and sometimes they’re not all that discreet about what they hear, which is great for journalism.
]
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s3052594.htm
[I mean right from the top.]
God? 😆
bemused,
[A distortion that would do the OO proud!]
Now, stand up straight, push out your chest, chin up high. Keep that pose.
And Yalda Hakim is replacing old tired Gorgeous George on SBS Dateline
Dee
Sorry, my deeply subtle wit eluded you, but in your fragile state you are forgiven.
You wrote “grin and bare it”, instead of “grin and bear it.”
Hence my delicate remark about your chest, not.
lizzie, you could be right! I’ll let you know in a week or so. Being a fickle “youngster” I’ll probably change my mind by tomorrow 😆
[According to Laurie, cleaners are some of the best sources]
Madcyril is RighT 👿
[I mean right from the top.]
and Diog is wRONg as usual. 😛
Was the 3.5 quake in St George today the earth giving a belch at Barnaby leaving for Brisbane?
bemused,
Forgot. Keep your nose in the air.
Problem with getting things from up high is the risk that you’re just being played in a game of tactical leaking or even misinformation.
The fly on the wall (eg the secretary or the cleaner) always makes the best informant.
[But how much coverage in mainstreamland did that really get?]
At the time nothing. Mostly in the opinion pages days afterwards.
It’s worth noting though that the SMH letters page copped it with anti-Tone letters at least one day last week.
Anyone know the topic-de-jour at the Press Club next Thursday?
[The fly on the wall (eg the secretary or the cleaner) always makes the best informant.]
And, in court, the least reliable. For which the Mordor Lord is truly thankful.
[Anyone know the topic-de-jour at the Press Club next Thursday?]
For the feral journos, the great big new “flood tax”.
This is what Farnsworth thought of the program
[MFARNSWORTH | 1 hour 17 minutes ago
So how many of us seriously harboured a fantasy that #6PM would be a serious program? More like 60 Minutes for people who can’t concentrate]
This is Possum’s response
[POLLYTICS | 18 minutes ago
@mfarnsworth It might have been junk, but TEN is at least attempting to bring current affairs to a demographic that has been deficient in it]
[Tone’s divisive and politicised comments during the floods ]
Those Coalition politicians are, if nothing else, really boring.
[
So how many of us seriously harboured a fantasy that #6PM would be a serious program? More like 60 Minutes for people who can’t concentrate
]
As usual people jump the gun. Personally, I like to give a show like that a few weeks to settle in and gets it groove. I’m reserving final judgement until I’ve seen more
Gorgeous George wont be missed at Dateline:
[YALDA HAKIM is well qualified to read and report world news – she was part of it at a very early age.
Hakim, 27, was born in Afghanistan. When she was six months old her father decided to take his family out of the country ravaged by war between the invading Soviet Union and the mujahideen resistance.
”My father had been studying in Czechoslovakia but when he returned to Afghanistan, he discovered he was to be conscripted into the army,” said the new co-host of SBS flagship Dateline.]
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/shes-at-home-in-the-hot-seat-20101023-16ykx.html
On the subject of female head of states [shakes head about possible juxtapositions], the ACT had two Chief Ministers: Rosemary Follett in the first government (she did no damage – faint praise? No – a hard job). Then Kate Carnell, the develop at all costs lady.
vp
The ACT is not a state.
[As usual people jump the gun. Personally, I like to give a show like that a few weeks to settle in and gets it groove. I’m reserving final judgement until I’ve seen more]
Exactly. And it’s on at 6pm on a commercial network. My bet is one finger is already hovering over the “cancel/retool” button. If we turn our noses up at it completely, you can guarantee the topic du jour in no time will be best value toasters and evil welfare scammers.
Another classic by Possum
[POLLYTICS | 7 minutes ago
@mfarnsworth Give me hope over experience anyday when the alternative is Chk Chk Boom]
rua,
I feel in my water (OK, in my dry white) that JG is about to give the “press” a little talking to: a 20 minute talk and a 30 minute “I don’t accept your premise.” A bit sad, really, not too many in the Press Club would know what “premise” means.
Ted Ballieu was interviewed on 7.30 report. He was pressed about his opinion on flood levy. His response was that he does not have anything to say about it at present. He is focussed on the flood crisis being handled in Victoria. He said that the Eastern states have been severely affected by these floods and the recovery costs are going to be huge. He has no problem with the Federal opposition having their stance on the flood levy, but he is not going to comment on how the costs should be raised at this point in time.
[Ted Ballieu was interviewed on 7.30 report. He was pressed about his opinion on flood levy. His response was that he does not have anything to say about it at present. He is focussed on the flood crisis being handled in Victoria. He said that the Eastern states have been severely affected by these floods and the recovery costs are going to be huge. He has no problem with the Federal opposition having their stance on the flood levy, but he is not going to comment on how the costs should be raised at this point in time.]
Political pygmy!
I should add that my reading of Ted is that he is not giving any support to the Rabbott and his position.
vp @ 4245
Despite your misgivings, I will be wishing her every success and hoping she slays them.
[Then Kate Carnell, the develop at all costs lady.]
The hospital implosion CM when the little girl died? Was injured?
Can you imagine if Carnell was Labor?