2011: episode one

Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.

• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.

• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.

• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,650 comments on “2011: episode one”

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  1. [Well again I don’t think the court is the correct ass to be shooting at, you’d be looking at the actual law applied.]

    Jasmine, with all respect this is a very , very clear case of the court applying the law with the utmost leniency, not a case of a law without teeth.

  2. SK I don’t know too many companies that apply common sense or curtesy unless they have to or are scared of some backlash, in which case it is merely self preservation under another name.

  3. [Not really. In isolation each rain event is quite normal. Last year Boreen Point 430mm in one day.]

    Fair enough.
    I vaguely remember travelling up to Cairns by road as a kid in the 70’s during school holidays. I thought that we made it back here to Sydney in mid-late January and just a few days later many of the Qld and Northern NSW rivers had overflowed and the highway was cut in several places. Had we stayed longer we would have been stuck for weeks and missed the start of the school year.

  5. Chinda @ 6131,

    [Well, not as such.

    He’s never been one for subtle messages, so if he’s making these noises it’s because he’s been TOLD to either move or get run over. Rann will be next – once he’s taken Dunstan’s record, that is.

    What will be interesting is seeing who they preselect for Port Adelaide. Personally, I’d like to see someone like Rick Sarre, rather than just another party hack owed a favour. Still, Peter Malinauskis (sp?) might be okay if he’s given a go, but I’m not sure now is the right time for him. I hear him spoken of as a future premier, so who knows.]

    Clearly. I liked the bit about having Rann’s support like he’s got any say in it. I’m not worried about what ends up in Port Adelaide it like you said will just be someone who’s owed a favour given how safe it is. Malinauskas a future premier? Dear god. Labor would have buckleys chance of getting out of opposition with him as the leader I’d say. Weatherill is still the only chance the party has got of winning in 2014 once Rann disappears to Italy. I can’t see the Right backing Weatherill so into opposition it will be, IMO.

    You know it’s a very sad state of affairs when the Liberal leader says she’s to Left of Rann & this Labor Party on a lot of social issues and intends to move the Liberal Party to the Left.

  7. I couldn’t find the judgment but I did find this about the original decision:

    The lawyer for the Aboriginal Areas Protection Authority, Georgia McMaster, told Magistrate Michael Carey the toilet can never be removed because under traditional custom that would further damage the land.

    But Magistrate Carey said he could not take that into account because the company was only charged with working on a sacred site, not with desecration of such a site.

    He fined the company $500 and did not record a conviction.

    Chief Executive of the Aboriginal Areas Protection Authority Dr Ben Scanbary says the penalty is fairly low.

    “There is an obvious need for contractors to make sure that they are complying with the laws of the Northern Territory and when they’re operating on behalf of other agencies they should ensure those agencies have undertaken that compliance, he said.

    Still not seeing what the Supreme Court in the NT did wrong.

  8. And to be clear I’m not making any comment about the Magistrate’s original decision either positive or negative just the eagerness to blame the Supreme Court for its decision.

  9. [Meanwhile in WA it looks like we have an other huge bushfire in the southwest of the state.]

    “The love of field and coppice,
    Of green and shaded lanes.
    Of ordered woods and gardens
    Is running in your veins,
    Strong love of grey-blue distance
    Brown streams and soft dim skies
    I know but cannot share it,
    My love is otherwise.”

    Dorothea nails it. 🙂

  10. Just wiped up a chocolate cake for the children.

    First question – “Is it Kevin Rudd’s mother’s recipe, mum?”

    Well, of course it is!!

    I’ve adapted it, however, to modern times by substituting olive oil for butter and baking it in the microwave for 4 mins.

  11. [Not when Federal Legislation over-rides Territory legislation. ]

    The NT legislation in this case is actually complementary legislation flowing from the Aboriginal Land Rights Act, NT (COM. 1976), ruawake. The ALRA itself also prescribes substantial penalties in connection with simply being on a sacred site without traditional authority.

    I can find no provision in the NORTHERN TERRITORY NATIONAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACT 2007 which seeks to over-ride the provisions of the NT Sacred Site Protection Legislation or the Sacred Site protection provisions of the Aboriginal Land Rights Act (NT) 1976 (though in the later case some other provisions of the legislation were, of course, specifically over-ridden).

    In fact, Section 59 of the NORTHERN TERRITORY NATIONAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACT 2007 specifically recognises the continued application of NT laws.

    I see a High Court case coming on.

  12. [And to be clear I’m not making any comment about the Magistrate’s original decision either positive or negative just the eagerness to blame the Supreme Court for its decision.]

    The penalties prescribed for “desecrating a scared site” and “working on a sacred site” under the NT legislation are identical, jasmine.

  13. PoK@6150

    Son in law provided me with a net address for shopping in the US. Hope that it is useful to some of the bludgers.

    Your SILO, and others, might be interested in this Whirlpool thread:  http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-replies.cfm?t=1613962 

    I have used both Shipto and PriceUSA. I use the first when I have a specific supplier, and the second when I’m not sure whom to buy from. They often find stuff at a much lower price than I did, plus they are Aussies.

  14. Oh, and if jenauthor’s about, I used the same cake as the basis for the Black Forest tiramisu I made….which was my birthday cake and universally applauded.

    Just as well this site isn’t restricted to just politics, although (as is obvious) I can even politicise a cake.

  16. The maximum’s you posted are identical but I’m not sure how that pertains to the abuse of the Supreme Court in the lack of the text of the judgment.

  17. Talking of online shopping – a big thanks to all who suggested the Book Depository in the UK.

    Made my first purchase last Friday – very competitive price and very efficient process.

  18. [But were the correct charges laid in the first place?]

    The defendants pleaded guilty to the charge of “working on a sacred site”, ruawake.

    As I indicated the maximum penalty for this is 400 penalty units (ie $53200) and up to two years in jail for an individual, and 2000 penalty units (ie $266000) for a corporate body.

    This is simply a case of the courts providing an absurdly low penalty for an act that caused great damage, not a matter of either Commonwealth legislation over-riding Territory law, or of the “wrong” charge being laid.

  19. [JULIA Gillard has defended the right of consumers to find a bargain online in a blow to big retailers seeking tougher tax treatment of internet shopping.
    The Prime Minister said online shopping was convenient and offered potential savings for cash-strapped shoppers.
    “I would be very reluctant to see Australians who are facing cost of living pressures not able to access shopping on the internet in the way that they access it now,” she said.]

    Suck on that Gerry. 😛

  20. A facebook friend in Perth has posted that her local Woolies is asking shoppers to donate for the Qld flood victims. Yes Woolies is a national company, but surely even they knew there were devastating floods in WA too?

  23. [SK
    ‘We need the rain’ 😆 Don’t know if we’ll hear that again too soon.]
    Cheers Joe6Pack, Dee! Others growing webbed feet.

    Yeah. I hear all dams are full sooooo … I am so OVER RAIN! (BTW: 3.10pm today was the 35th anniversary of the 1976 hail storm.)

    100mm here in under an hour early this arvo. Tsunamis (reportedly) down both sides of the Range road. Houses washed away, Evacs at Gatton as the water pours down the Big Hill. Our guttering etc couldn’t cope so water got in under the tiles – luckily minimal compared to what some friends are reporting. Son’s been downtown since 1.00pm. Hopes to be home in the next hour. I’ve just watched Channel 10 5.00pm news. Gawd! People on rooftops at Helidon. Now there’s real fear for Brisbane as well as Maryborough to Bris. Must be the first time the least affected by the Big Wet is the Far North’s Cyclone Alley.

    This, on top of yesterday’s downpour, will become Dalby’s 6th flood and it will be the horror one. All Toowoomba’s water plus Cooby creek – the water’s over the spillway.

    Stay safe, everyone.

  24. [Carolina: I would like to thank Gerry Harvey for all the free advertising – go harvey go 🙂 11:14 AM Jan 6th]

    ROFL just clicked onto PriceUSA and there thanking Gerry 😉

    cheers

  25. As a general rule I tend to back Courts in their decisions. That is why we have them.

    That is why I oppose mandatory sentencing, that is why I feel little sympathy (but maybe empathy) for the grieving victims who complain when they think a sentence is too lenient.

    What is the solution to this?

  26. [confessionsPosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 6:32 pm | PermalinkA facebook friend in Perth has posted that her local Woolies is asking shoppers to donate for the Qld flood victims. Yes Woolies is a national company, but surely even they knew there were devastating floods in WA too?
    ]

    Especially as they get a lot of their Fruit & Veg from that Region – btw, that “National” Telethon” paid lip service to the WA Floods by having Liam from Lebanon Bartlett doing a live cross – and no mention of the local appeal either.

  27. Jasmine
    I agree. The courts always get criticised by people with an emotional reaction to an outcome to a case, but who are blissfully unaware of all the circumstances. The penalty along the sliding scale from minimum to maximum would depend on all the relevant circumstances of the matter – which we don’t know.

    In criminal matters such ignorant dissatisfaction with sentencing leads to the law and order auction in state elections, so the ignorantly dissatisfied will vote for the most draconian party. You end up with no discretion for the court – no sliding scale – just ‘throw away the key’ every time.

    In the NT matter, I fail to see what purpose a tougher penalty would achieve if the circumstances of the case indicate a light fine is appropriate, which one should assume given the outcome. Some seem to think it should it be the maximum every time whatever the circumstances.

  28. This is simply a case of the courts providing an absurdly low penalty for an act that caused great damage, not a matter of either Commonwealth legislation over-riding Territory law, or of the “wrong” charge being laid.

    I’m not suggesting the wrong charge has being laid but surely even you would have to agree that working on is usually going to be less significant than desecrating, and I’m curious which of the factors you took into account in reaching your view that it is ‘absurdly’ low, you will note the original magistrates view in the NT was that the offence was of such a minor nature that no conviction was recorded.

    For example the church mis-comparison was NOT of working on or in a church it was of desecrating an alter of a church, very emotive, very foolish I know but still that was the comparison we were given to consider.

    I don’t know how long you’ve spent in Magistrate’s Courts but it seems pretty clear the Magistrate considered it a relatively minor offence against, you are of a view it is a very major offence, I don’t know how the prosecution presented its sentencing submission or what it asked for.

  29. [ruawakePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 6:37 pm | PermalinkAs a general rule I tend to back Courts in their decisions. That is why we have them.
    That is why I oppose mandatory sentencing, that is why I feel little sympathy (but maybe empathy) for the grieving victims who complain when they think a sentence is too lenient.
    What is the solution to this?
    ]

    I bet Rod would be singing a different tune if it were an indigenous person being fined/prosecuted with the maximum penalty for an offence.

  30. Rod Hagen

    Surely the best way to deal with lawbreakers is not by imposing harsh punishment automatically, but by looking at alternatives that help ensure the same behaviour won’t happen again.

    The local courts bend over backwards to see that happen in small criminal matters – especially for first-time offenders. If the magistrate is convinced by what is in front of them that it is a one-off, then why not suspend the punishment and keep a person out of gaol? Why shouldn’t the same principle apply to the NT transgression?

  31. Frank:

    Obviously the Qld floods are affecting many more communities, but you’d think WA Woolies would favour collecting for affected WA communities, not eastern states people!

  32. Like many others I have bought online mainly small items. Gerrys’ big whinge has prompted me to go looking and I have now realized that big items are possible as well with just a bit more effort. I always appreciate that bludgers go to the trouble to explain how they do things and post a link if possible.

  34. While I agree with all the posts about leaving the courts to hear all the evidence in great detail and come to their decisions without mandatory intrusions, I have to agree with Rod here.

    Our system is founded on the belief that “12 ordinary men”, and it was men initially, from our community could decide what is “reasonable” for our society. This is because it is so hard to write laws to account for all possible circumstances. The problem with this system arises when ‘the court system’, and the human beings that are ‘the court system’ cannot understand the cultural reasons for a position- which is possibly the case here, I don’t know of course but it looks like that to me.

  35. [if it were an indigenous person being fined/prosecuted with the maximum penalty for an offence]
    That is probably what Rod is talking about. Do Aboriginal people get the same light sentencing from the courts for offences of the same scale? I would be interested to see data on that.

  38. [if it were an indigenous person being fined/prosecuted with the maximum penalty for an offence

    That is probably what Rod is talking about. Do Aboriginal people get the same light sentencing from the courts for offences of the same scale? I would be interested to see data on that..]

    I have seen the data before (don’t have a link though) and Aboriginal people are given statistically more severe sentences than non-Aboriginal people for the same crime.

  40. Mod Lib

    As I said before, what is the alternative? Do we have separate laws for First Nation court cases?

    Do we have a culturally sensitive Court system? Would their decisions be overturned by the High Court?

  41. When a river is reported as running at, say, 20 metres does that mean 20 metres above its normal level or above the river bed?

    Either way, it means absolutely nothing unless the listener knows the river itself and the surrounding terrain.

  42. IF someone is sentenced to 10 years they should do 10yrs . That is what upsets people, a convict is sentenced to 10 yrs then gets time off for remission /good behavior etc. Do the time they were sentenced to do.

  44. Sentencing as a couple have observed is about the offender and the offence not just the ‘victim’.

    Any study of ‘same’ crime would be horrendously difficult but given statistics we know well such an outcome would hardly be surprising for a whole range of reasons.

  46. rua,

    I never said I had the answers!

    The option of parallel Aboriginal justice systems was flawed as well (IMHO anyway) as it wasn’t compatible with ‘our’ sense of justice. Mandatory sentences are weak as they are a blunt instrument trying to cut a very fine line.

    I think in our country, our justice system needs to be upheld but the police force, prosecutors, defence lawyers, jury and justices needs cultural awareness education to understand just how important these issues are to the Aboriginal community.

    A little example. When non-Aboriginal people introduce themselves they say “Hi, I am x, I am a “- don’t they?. Have you noticed that when an Aboriginal person introduces themselves it is “Hi, I am x, I am a woman”. Community and the land is an integral part of their self identity. Its really quite a beautiful thing actually!

  47. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@6185

    That is probably what Rod is talking about. Do Aboriginal people get the same light sentencing from the courts for offences of the same scale? I would be interested to see data on that.

    I hope they would if the relevant factors to take into account for the punishment were similar – with the added factor of customary law in some cases. But that is irrelevant. Every court decision about penalty turns on its own facts as applied to the range of penalties for the offence. The magistrates have available a historical chart of penalties for each offence (or similar offence) to refer to to assist them with applying their discretion in the case before them.

  48. [IF someone is sentenced to 10 years they should do 10yrs ]

    But judges rarely give say 10 year sentences, they give a non-parole period. Even prisoners need an incentive to behave.

  49. [ruawakePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 7:06 pm | PermalinkIF someone is sentenced to 10 years they should do 10yrs
    But judges rarely give say 10 year sentences, they give a non-parole period. Even prisoners need an incentive to behave.
    ]

    Not according to the shock-jocks and “Victins Rights” groups they don’t.

  50. …that was meant to be ‘I am x, I am a …insert occupation…” for non-Aboriginal and “I am x, I am a …insert community name….woman”

    (must remember you cant use “” here!)

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