Happy new year everybody. Limiting our brief to known knowns, we have the following entries in the 2011 electoral calendar.
• The NSW Labor government’s date for the electoral mincer is set for March 26. Mumble man Peter Brent has bravely ventured that Labor “will do better than opinion polls in 2010 said they would, perhaps emerging with around 30 out of 93 seats”. My tip is that this prediction of Brent’s won’t scrub up quite as nicely after the event as those he made in relation to Victoria.
• John Brumby’s exit from politics will result in a by-election in his ultra-safe northern Melbourne seat of Broadmeadows, probably in February or March. According to David Rood of The Age, early contenders for Labor preselection include “former Brumby adviser and Labor state secretary Nick Reece, former adviser to Steve Bracks and lobbyist Danny Pearson, Hume councillor Burhan Yigit, ex-Labor party officer and right-wing figure Mehmet Tillem, recently defeated Labor upper house MP Nathan Murphy and former Hobsons Bay Council mayor Bill Baarini”. One might surmise that other Victorian by-elections will follow before the year is through.
• Four of the 15 seats in Tasmania’s Legislative Council will become vacant this year, with elections almost certain to be held on May 7. These include two of the three seats held by Labor, with the other two being among the 11 held by independents (Vanessa Goodwin in Pembroke being the sole Liberal). In the normal course of events, two or three seats are on rotation to become vacant each year: this year is the turn of Launceston, Murchison and Rumney. Veteran independent Don Wing is retiring in Launceston, which will be constested for the Liberals by state party president Sam McQuestin. Sitting independent Ruth Forrest will seek another term in Murchison – she will be opposed by a Labor candidate in the person of Waratah-Wynyard mayor Kevin Hyland (UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments advises that Hyland is no longer a starter), but not by the Liberals. Labor’s Lin Thorp is up for re-election in Rumney, and I can find no mention of potential challengers (it’s not unknown for Legislative Council members to be returned unopposed, but the Greens at least can be relied upon to take a shot in metropolitan seats). The bonus fourth seat is a by-election caused by the retirement of former Treasurer Michael Aird. Labor’s new nominee is Derwent deputy mayor Craig Farrell.
Prison guards and authorities would argue that prisoners have a need for much greater incentives.
In MHO a substantial part of the problem is just ignorance of what goes on. In some ways a subjective ‘you’ve been a good girl / boy’ have 57 day sentence reduction published on holidays like in Bali might be less confusing because it is easier to understand and see.
[I never said I had the answers!]
I did not mean to imply you did. It is a very difficult situation.
[But judges rarely give say 10 year sentences, they give a non-parole period. Even prisoners need an incentive to behave.]
The incentive to behave can be dealt with with the privilege system. Do the wrong thing lose a privilege. The non-parole period if you insist that there should be one should be the minimum term to be served . Nothing off for remission etc, .
J6P @ 6192
That could cause several effects you have not considered.
Firstly, courts may react by imposing lower sentences.
Secondly, remissions for good behaviour etc encourage rehabilitation.
The main object should surely be rehabilitation to prevent further offences. What is the point of a harsh penal system that just makes bad people worse and then releases them on the community?
Think it through Joe.
Apart from anything else, it is expensive to keep people in gaol. I have heard figures quoted from $55,000 to $80,000 per annum.
care to outline the ‘privileged’ system you are advocating Joe6?
Bemused I would be shocked if the figures weren’t a whole lot higher than that.
[6205 JasminePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 7:12 pm | Permalinkcare to outline the ‘privileged’ system you are advocating Joe6?
]
You know the Howard Sattler version – TV, computers, Seafood at Xmas etc – being allowed to play Amateur Football amongst REAL people on the OUTSIDE etc.
Bemused the 09/10 report of the WA corrections dept shows a per day cost of $262.82 which annualises on my poor maths to about $95,929.30. So not a long way out of the range you had.
Of course if we reduce privileges like dressing, eating and showering we can cut that way down.
Why are most people in jail? Addiction.
What I could find so far (I accept detention rate is not the same as sentence rate):
[Indigenous young people are still detained at more than ten times the rate of all young people]
from ABS: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1A1D7E843ED8207CCA25709900136B2E?opendocument
but this study apparently found the opposite:
[Sentencing Indigenous and non-Indigenous women in Western Australia’s higher courts / Christine E W Bond and Samantha Jeffries
Psychiatry, psychology and law 17(1) Feb 2010: 70-78
Summary: Sentencing data from Western Australia’s higher courts indicate that Indigenous women were less likely than non-Indigenous women to be sentenced to a term of imprisonment when appearing before the court for comparable offending behaviour and histories.(From abstract)]
Would not the threat that if you are sentenced to do a certain amount of time, that is actually what you are going to do be a deterrent in itself?
I am all for rehabilitation while they are incarcerated through education, work skills, drug programs etc. but they should still do the time they were sentenced to do.
That is not harsh that is quite fair as we the taxpayer are paying for all this rehabilitation.
Privileges could range from no tv. tonight /week.etc through to no visits this week etc.
Just examples. There are are whole range of incentives to keep prisoners from bad behavior.
[The non-parole period if you insist that there should be one should be the minimum term to be served ]
J6P: I thought the non-parole period was the minimum? Is that not right?
Mod Lib
The interesting thing for an academic to do would be to ignore “ethnicity” and look at income, education etc.
I doubt the difference would be that great.
Mod lib good find but you’ll note Christine and Samantha compared both comparable offending behaviour and ‘histories’, as indeed you would need to try to do if you wanted a sensible comparison.
Jasmine @ 6208
I was relying on memory and my figures would be several years old.
Most of the prison population are the mentally ill who tend to get into trouble and other small time offenders.
There are not all that many really bad offenders in gaol.
NSW has a much higher rate of imprisonment than Victoria due to the ‘law and order’ contest indulged in by both major parties over the years.
I am not sure where WA stands but they seem to have an apalling record of police stitching up innocent people.
[I am all for rehabilitation while they are incarcerated through education, work skills, drug programs etc. but they should still do the time they were sentenced to do…]
Except people are not sentenced for a set time. This is deliberate.
jv
Then how does that explain the historical gender bias in sentencing?
[Joe6pack
Posted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
Would not the threat that if you are sentenced to do a certain amount of time, that is actually what you are going to do be a deterrent in itself?]
After the 18th schooner threats lose some of their effectiveness so we have to accept crime will happen. Rehabilitation is a much more humane way to treat humans than just straight punishment and produces better results I would think.
http://www.lawcouncil.asn.au/shadomx/apps/fms/fmsdownload.cfm?file_uuid=8667662C-1E4F-17FA-D20F-0ED118993E97&siteName=lca
This Law Council report from Jan 2010 has some of the data. In summary:
1. Aboriginal juveniles are less likely to be given cautions or warnings and more likely to be sent to courts
2. Aboriginal juveniles are more likely to be given a custodial sentence (2-3 times more likely)
[bemusedPosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 7:25 pm | PermalinkJasmine @ 6208
I was relying on memory and my figures would be several years old.
Most of the prison population are the mentally ill who tend to get into trouble and other small time offenders.
There are not all that many really bad offenders in gaol.
NSW has a much higher rate of imprisonment than Victoria due to the ‘law and order’ contest indulged in by both major parties over the years.
I am not sure where WA stands but they seem to have an apalling record of police stitching up innocent people.
]
WA is catching up – people are being refued parole when it comes up, and there are plenty of fine dfuters etc being imprisoned – oh and there s mass over-crowding as well.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/new-beds-to-help-ease-prison-overcrowding-in-western-australia/story-e6frg143-1225852384122
[1. Aboriginal juveniles are less likely to be given cautions or warnings and more likely to be sent to courts
2. Aboriginal juveniles are more likely to be given a custodial sentence (2-3 times more likely) ]
Than what control group?
Mod Lib
I think you are correct but a non-parole is not the norm mainly for murder etc.
IT,s all the time off for good behavior and remission which i disagree with.
[6221 ruawakePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 7:32 pm | Permalink1. Aboriginal juveniles are less likely to be given cautions or warnings and more likely to be sent to courts
2. Aboriginal juveniles are more likely to be given a custodial sentence (2-3 times more likely)
Than what control group?
]
Try Juveniles living in well to do suburbs like Dalkeith in WA and Toorak 🙂
[ruawake
Except people are not sentenced for a set time. This is deliberate.]
Why?
Btw is it raining down on the coast atm
[PaulJ
After the 18th schooner threats lose some of their effectiveness so we have to accept crime will happen. Rehabilitation is a much more humane way to treat humans than just straight punishment and produces better results I would think.]
I have stated i am all for rehabilitation, just for people to serve the sentences that were imposed.
[I think you are correct but a non-parole is not the norm mainly for murder etc.]
This has reached the absurd. What % of the prison population are locked up for murder?
J6P
Once a person is sentenced to a custodial sentence, their health and welfare becomes the responsibility of the state. Progressive states see the sentence as more than punishment. There is an opportunity to modify the behaviour of the offender., i.e. rehabilitation. This is another speciality in itself with a long and extremely interesting history. While always chronically underfuned, it s suffice to say every dollar spent on rehabilitation pays many dollars saved through reduced recidivism.
Another way to view it is with the non-parole period as the ‘retribution’ and the non-parole period as the tool of rehabilitation.
Or we can be like the USA with its huge commercial prison-services sector with its sideline of supplying slave labor for industry.
A HREOC report, admittedly from two years ago found:
J6P
Joe, so you would prefer to keep someone in prison at $80,000 per year when they are demonstrating they are rehabilitated and safe to put back into the community?
What do we want to use prison for, rehabilitation? punishment? revenge?
Certainly it is to punish offenders, it should be to rehabilitate but I think ‘revenge’ really has no place in the modern world.
[Than what control group?]
Quite right rua, this is an important point which is not explicit in the report but it is pretty clear that it is Indigenous (Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander) versus non-Indigenous juveniles.
[ I think you are correct but a non-parole is not the norm mainly for murder etc.
This has reached the absurd. What % of the prison population are locked up for murder?]
I mean,t that most non-parole periods are only set for murders.
Most other sentences and indeed some murderers have no non-parole date set so they get 1/3 off for remission automatically, then another 1/3 off for good behavior, so they only serve 1/3 of the original sentance
J6P @ 6231
As far as I am aware they don’t get parole unless found to be read for it. If granted parole they are saving the community $80,000pa + whatever they contribute to the community. This is a bad idea?
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@6217
I’m not aware that gender bias in sentencing is a problem,at least in NSW. This is from a paper about Victoria:
from
SENTENCING FEMALE OFFENDERS IN THE MAGISTRATE’S COURT:
Bronwyn Naylor
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/previous%20series/proceedings/1-27/~/media/publications/proceedings/16/naylor.ashx
Joe6Pack
[Just heard a Surge is on the way towards brisbane]
Ah Gee 6 Pack! Just rang my eldest brother & he is trapped. Can’t get out so has a ladder up to the manhole ready to knock tiles off the roof.
J6P
As I was saying before, the area of penolgy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penology is very complex, and a discipline of itself. It goes much more into the mechanisms of controlling criminal behaviour than a simple ’10 years = 10 years locked up and no TV if you are unruly’ mindset, if I may be so blunt.
I suggest some reading of the history of (Western world) developments in criminal rehabilitation and prison management in the last 300 years for some very interesting insights.
I don’t know but did anyone else think the amount of income assistance Gillard has offered is pretty poor?
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced plans to assist people who have lost their income as a result of flooding around the country.
The Federal Government has already had 8,000 claims for emergency assistance from people, most of whom have been placed in evacuation centres.
Ms Gillard says the income assistance will be available to those not able to do their normal job because of the recent floods in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.
She says the payment will be the same as the unemployment rate – about $500 a fortnight – and will last for 13 weeks.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/10/3109926.htm?section=justin
What just give em the dole for 13 weeks?
j6p
In some very rare instances jail is a punishment and correctly so. In the vast majority it should be an occasion to rehabilitate and educate, so that the person leaves jail a better person than when they entered.
To write these people, who are often mentally ill or addicted, off as bad people and throw away the key is counter-productive.
Dee,
Oh no! I hope bro is going to be okay.
Dee
I hope he is ok.
[Ru
j6p
In some very rare instances jail is a punishment and correctly so. In the vast majority it should be an occasion to rehabilitate and educate, so that the person leaves jail a better person than when they entered.
To write these people, who are often mentally ill or addicted, off as bad people and throw away the key is counter-productive.]
Again I state i am all for rehabilitation/education etc.
I just think convicts should do the time they were sentenced to do. I have at no stage advocated writing people off or throwing away the key.
[What just give em the dole for 13 weeks?]
Lets give them an overseas holiday, their after tax income for the next two years plus pay off any loans they have.
What should they get?
[ruawakePosted Monday, January 10, 2011 at 8:05 pm | PermalinkWhat just give em the dole for 13 weeks?
Lets give them an overseas holiday, their after tax income for the next two years plus pay off any loans they have.
What should they get?
]
According to our friendly neighbourhood Green Muppet – a Blank Cheque 🙂
[Again I state i am all for rehabilitation/education etc.]
What is the point, if you still stay in jail for the same time? Carrots and Sticks j6p.
Adam,
[I don’t know but did anyone else think the amount of income assistance Gillard has offered is pretty poor? ]
I think that is a standard disaster-relief related Centrelink income payment, and would not be Julia ‘offering’ any amount herself. This one is immediate payment and is available for meeting immediate needs. Other specific payments would be on top of this.
Centrelink would be already in action setting up teams to process applications and to minimise the documents people need to present. In many cases Centrelink probably has information on hand due to child/family payments etc.
I note the payments are for people who had a job so this gives them cash to buy necessities that their wage payment would usually be able to cover. There probably also will be spouse/child components to add to the single person amount of about $500 pf, so a family will get much more.
ruawake @ 6241,
[Lets give them an overseas holiday, their after tax income for the next two years plus pay off any loans they have.
What should they get?]
Hilarious. A bit more than the dole perhaps?
Adam I thought it was pretty good what she offered.
J6P @ 6240
So … if the desired outcome, rehabilitation, can be achieved earlier than the full sentence you would deprive the taxpayer of the savings just to make sure the full sentence was completed. That is simply being punitive for no valid reason and penalising the community too.
Andrew Elder on the opposition’s AS policy:
[When I say “the Liberals” are leading on this issue, I do not mean in the lazy journalistic way of referring to that party interchangeably with “the Coalition”. It’s telling that the Nationals seem content to leave immigration to the Liberals. These are the people who complain about the depopulation of regional areas and the lack of willing workers for regional employers. Despite successes such as the settlement of European migrants who worked on the Snowy Mountains Scheme in NSW’s Eden-Monaro district, or the successful Iraqi community in Shepparton, you’d hope the Nationals would be clamouring for migration to their constituencies. There are obviously more votes in sending wombat-headed whingers to Canberra rather than electing proactive representatives keen to work in the national interest.]
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2011/01/ferocious-limitations-after-losing.html
he goes on to say Tone is simply entrenching the coalition in loser territory – their failure to move forward continues to make them unelectable. Thank heavens for our bloggers! Their insight leaves the msm drones for dead.
Why sentence someone to 9yrs if they only do 3?
Raining again Bugger.
J6P @ 6249
The point is that if they don’t pull their socks up and demonstrate rehabilitation and fitness to go back into the community, they will do the lot.