Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll is unchanged from the previous fortnight’s result in every significant particular: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor, 40 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens. The poll encompasses two weekends’ worth of Roy Morgan’s routine face-to-face surveys, encompassing a sample of 1804.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. [31 William Bowe
    Posted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:41 pm | Permalink
    Dearest William can we have 15 min notice of change of venue./

    Yeah, sorry about that.]

    thats ok wasted my time any way as usual

  7. GG,

    [don’t feed me the bulldust of it would have been worse under Kev.]

    I like Kevin Rudd as much as anyone and more than most. But I believe it would have been worse under him. Not because of him personally. The media would have made sure he could not win. They’re the ones with the unparalleled power in the democracy to influence and manipulate the public’s political perceptions. They had done such a demolition job on his name, character, programs and plans that he was a lame duck in the end. A sitting duck for them to finish off.

    As with all sitting ducks they would have made sure he would go down.

  10. So yeah, I’ve moved on. But, don’t feed me the bulldust of it would have been worse under Kev.

    GG – We both know the outcome under Rudd at the 2010 election is unknowable.

    In Qld it appears they wanted to baseball bat him. They they wanted revenge
    for him being *no confidenced* by labor.

    Rudd chucked howard out in ’07 but made mistakes in his own right.

  12. Dio

    The desperate rewriting of history is very ordinary and Paul Howes’ performance today was a disgrace.

    Howes has never impressed me. What is it again that he is supposed to offer ?

  13. [56 CuppaPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 8:08 pm | PermalinkGG,
    don’t feed me the bulldust of it would have been worse under Kev.
    I like Kevin Rudd as much as anyone and more than most. But I believe it would have been worse under him. Not because of him personally. The media would have made sure he could not win. They’re the ones with the unparalleled power in the democracy to influence and manipulate the public’s political perceptions. They had done such a demolition job on his name, character, programs and plans that he was a lame duck in the end. A sitting duck for them to finish off.
    As with all sitting ducks they would have made sure he would go down.
    ]

    Agreed, The Lib’s entire Advertising campaign with the Kevi O’Lemon ads was made redundent with 24 hours of launching it.

    It was those behind Rudd and who had some some score to settle who stuffed it for Labor with those leaks.

  14. GG

    [It was like the murder on the Labor Express. (Agatha Christie would be proud).]

    It was exactly like Murder on the Orient Express. Everyone stabbed him on the same night.

    SK

    It was in the office with the dagger. And Miss Scarlet wasn’t the main culprit.

  16. cuppa,

    I’ve put up the facts. You are welcome to interpret them how you like and throw your own personal spin about what might have happened.

    However, there are a lot of people in Labor in denial and I can assure you I am not one of them. I’ve moved on.

  18. [59 davePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 8:09 pm | Permalink So yeah, I’ve moved on. But, don’t feed me the bulldust of it would have been worse under Kev.
    GG – We both know the outcome under Rudd at the 2010 election is unknowable.
    In Qld it appears they wanted to baseball bat him. They they wanted revenge
    for him being *no confidenced* by labor.
    Rudd chucked howard out in ‘07 but made mistakes in his own right.
    ]

    Yup, Quincelanders reacted cos THEY weren’t allow to personally baseballbat him. Plus the LNP linked Bilgh with Gillard re “Wimin Can’t Lead” meme.

  21. To put a bit of perspective on the CBA’s interest rate increase of an “extra” 0.20% (on the RBA’s 0.25% = 0.45%)

    In the year to June, CBA made $6.1bn cash profit, and held assets of $646bn.

    Now CBA has business other than lending (like Colonial First State etc), but if we ignore them and pretend that it was entirely a lending business (it mostly is), CBA made 0.94% loan margin profit in the year to June.

    So say CBA did not increase its loan margin by 0.20%, everything else being equal, it would have a profit reduction of about 21%

  23. GG

    [Go to Landeryou’s site for an interesting take.]

    I’ve just had dinner! Maybe later…

    SK

    [Could it have been the Mad Katter? He was in the office and he obviously cuts snakes! 😉 ]

    You need MMO; motive, means and opportunity. Katter didn’t have a motive. He loved the Ruddster.

    Frank

    The dog will end up in the witness box for sure. Expect his past life to be thoroughly investigated.

  24. Lao – I still don’t think CBA is going to get off the hook easily or soon.

    Still no move *yet* from the other 3. Why would they hurry.

    The dogs are at CBA’s door and NOT going away. Too many people offside
    no matter what CBA say.

  25. Laocoon
    [Australia’s leading anti-Semite Fredrick Töben yesterday claimed an association with the federal leader of the parliamentary Liberal party Tony Abbott, telling The Australian:

    “Tony and I go back a long time.”

    His claim followed Abbott and Töben having a chat after a protest meeting addressed by the Opposition Leader of Adelaide residents complaining about the imminent arrival of asylum seekers in their neighbourhood.]
    Wonder what the Jewish community will make of this, especially in the seat of Wentworth?????

  28. [DeePosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 8:27 pm | PermalinkLaocoon
    Australia’s leading anti-Semite Fredrick Töben yesterday claimed an association with the federal leader of the parliamentary Liberal party Tony Abbott, telling The Australian:
    “Tony and I go back a long time.”
    His claim followed Abbott and Töben having a chat after a protest meeting addressed by the Opposition Leader of Adelaide residents complaining about the imminent arrival of asylum seekers in their neighbourhood.
    Wonder what the Jewish community will make of this, especially in the seat of Wentworth?????
    ]

    It will be quitely buried so as the big “donors” won’t be affected – wheree as if it were an ALP Pollie, all hell woud break loose etc.

  29. Dee,

    He apparently interviewed him when he was a journalist.

    However, if Abbott had said that someone is trying to manipulate this situation for political advantage, every one would have thought it was him.

  31. dave

    I agree (I thought the other 3 would move this evening, just after newspaper deadlines, but no)

    Having said that, and although I think there is no doubt the banking sector is displaying oligopolistic behaviour/profits, this seems to me to have become a bit of mob hysteria.

    Borrowing costs have risen. It is the GFC. The transition from high debt, low risk margin circumstances in the economy was never going to be painless nor quick. We in Australia ought to be thankful that we dont have 10% or 15% or 20%, whatever the real unemployment rate is, debasing currency etc in the US and elsewhere.

  33. Dee/victoria

    There was a posting earlier today on an exchange on this point…Abbott trying to suppress the photo or something. He is just a disgrace.

  34. greensborough growler,

    [I’ve put up the facts. You are welcome to interpret them how you like and throw your own personal spin about what might have happened.

    However, there are a lot of people in Labor in denial and I can assure you I am not one of them. I’ve moved on.]

    What spin? My contention is pretty simple. The media knifed him. Or, to put it in a similar way, they did a hatchet job on him. On his political character, his achievements, his plans, his very name.

    As to why the Labor caucus moved on him … as outsiders we can but conjecture. I think it likely they saw him toward the end (as I do) as a lame duck, all but destroyed by the media. The only thing they could do was finish off his leadership (before the media did it at the election) and cross their fingers they might get some clearer air under someone else, namely the heir apparent, Julia.

    But, as you’ve moved on, so will I. Water under the bridge now. Pointless ruminating over what’s done is, well, ultimately pointless.

  35. [Out of interest. Has Morgan ever showed the Coalition ahead on the TPP?]

    Last time the the Coalition led in a Morgan face-to-face poll (their infrequent phone polls are a very different matter) was mid-2006, and they led fairly consistently for a while after the 2004 election.

  36. GG
    [Dr Toben, who lives in Adelaide and has done jail time in his native Germany for his views, told The Australian newspaper that ”Tony and I go back a long time”. Yesterday he repeated the claim to the Herald but declined to go into detail.]
    Why not detail the association then?

  37. victoria

    Do you mean “more than” the reserve bank. Westpac did it very recently December 2009 (you might remember the banana controversy!) 45bp as well

  39. Dee,

    I heard or saw something today from Abbott doing such. Can’t recall, exactly. That’s where I got my info.

  40. Laocoon.

    I believe the last rise by the Reserve was in May 2010. Correct me if I am wrong.

    So it was Westpac 10 months ago, when they did that cartoon explanation?

    If this is the case, I agree with you, Hockey has succeeded in whipping up the mob.

  42. [Australia’s leading anti-Semite Fredrick Töben yesterday claimed an association with the federal leader of the parliamentary Liberal party Tony Abbott, telling The Australian:
    “Tony and I go back a long time.”]

    of course the MSM would treat this as a bit of a laugh, just the boyo thing.

  44. [victoria
    Posted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 8:13 pm | Permalink
    my say

    I am not a writer. Far from it.

    I am still not sure what the exact intention of the email was.]

    just popped back in here to collect a ball of yarn.

    I think Victoria it was to say that they who ever they are think that
    people in this country want to take god out of the country and we have to pass on these chain letters of course i didnt,
    MY friend in the USA told me today that she thinks even the tea party people have no idea what they are talking about and a mixed up lot.
    may be people in Australian who send chain letters like this are just as confused.

    My main point of the story was to say, that some so called christians do not think its unchristian to treat AS in a cruel way and they dont see abbott as unchristian.

    Now that is a worry.

  45. Laocoon

    Thanks for posting links. And the follow up being there was a photo taken of them talking at this rally, and Abbott wanting this photo suppressed?

  46. victoria
    The Rabbott’s office is stating that the Rabbott had interviewed him & that was all but Toban is claiming to be an old acquaintance but refuses to go into the detail of their relationship. Even if they were friends Toban would not risk the Rabbott’s career. He sees him as a comrad. Makes you wonder why doesn’t it?
    Toban has also said that the Rabbott doesn’t run a mile through fear of association which is why he is the man of the people. 😆

  47. [Abbott wanting this photo suppressed?]

    Victoria, Abbott has form. Remember he also wanted his gun slinger days in Afghanistan suppressed.

  48. my say

    Yes, there seems to be a lot of angry people about at the moment.

    I may have mentioned this the other day, but on ABC1 these past couple of weeks, was a show about the slums of India. These people live and work in the most appalling conditions, but they were polite and happy.
    I am afraid, there is something not going right in our society at the moment.

  49. [also they expressed to me sometime back some time ago, that they just want their country back,
    Note the word THEIR]

    That’s got the smell of Tea Party rhetoric about it.

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