Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll is unchanged from the previous fortnight’s result in every significant particular: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor, 40 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens. The poll encompasses two weekends’ worth of Roy Morgan’s routine face-to-face surveys, encompassing a sample of 1804.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Hysteria appears to be the coalition policy substitute at the moment:

    – interest rates: banks profiteering/useless Swan
    – mining tax: better to go to Africa
    – Asylum seekers (brown skinned, muslim boat arrivals variety only)
    – Murray Darling Basin
    – Batts
    – BER
    – NBN
    – Govt debt
    – even that ship that got grounded in Qld…I recall Hunt *demanding* that Rudd get there in 24 hours or else he would, I dunno, cry and stamp his feet (alas Rudd did go)

    Its sort of like the 1984 environment, of continuous warfare to prop up a totalitarian regime (terror warning?)

    What was the last rational, calm, deliberative policy contribution/critique from the Coalition leadership??

  2. Laocoon

    Their behavioiur is all part of the strategy. It has worked a treat for the Rethugs in the US. Look how many seats they won this midterm election.

  3. I might have used the word “suppressed” too strongly…unless others can recall something along those lines.

    There was Senator X’s comments.

    I have to say with Abbott, I glaze over a bit and just think the worst; usually a good rule of thumb 👿

  4. Someone mentioned earlier about why the Churches are silent over the AS issues.

    So why the Jewish Lobby Groups are silent over this? They are usually very vocal.

  5. [The Rabbott is a lot of things, but a man of the people. Now that is a huge stretch.]
    When a self confessed racist, who btw turns up at a rally to stop asylum seekers says such things then you know the Rabbott has scraped the bottom of the barrell.
    A criminal, escaping international law protesting over people seeking safety & refuge.
    Gee, if the media can’t see some meat in that tale then they are bloody stupid.

  6. Loacoon,

    I was thinking about that this morning. I can’t remember a post-howard policy. I even wrote to Turnballs when he was the head honcho, saying that unless the party came up with a raft of policies, then they were counting themselves out of any possibility of me voting for them.

  7. [am afraid, there is something not going right in our society at the moment.]

    greed, and fear of the unknown, and that unknown was placed in the minds by people who should know better some years ago.
    Now we have show them by example there is nothing to fear from people
    who have feeling just the same as they have and we have.
    The labor party and the people who vote for her have to live by example and show the way it will not be easy, i am just hopeful that things will work out. I do hope the refugees are educated about not getting up set not protesting e.g the ones that got on the roof of the detention center for example, i know that this was very few but it just gives their enemies a reason to say they told us so, so hopefully everything will go smoothly
    As long as the gov, makes sure there is enough educators in the field and interpreters to help them, and the children are well and happy,

    Has any one thought of perhaps volunteering re sewing and knitting for them, we do it here, I know they can get clothes from st,.Vincents ect but then isnt it nice to have something brand new.
    I love using the best yarn i can find and last year took great pleasure in making jumpers and cardigans for the children from Somalia and cord. overalls for the toddlers

  8. Lao – RBA have said there was no basis for any move above the cash rate.
    They went on to say that borrowing costs had if fact decreased in recent times.

    The way I understand things is that longer term overseas funding of
    the banks is coming up for rollover *going forward* and that the 4 banks were
    trying to front run the anticipated rate increase of that rollover.

    CBA is the biggest home lender, it also raises more as a total proportion of its
    requirements via its onshore retail branch network, ie cheaply.

    The other driving issue is that pre GFC overall margins for the big 4 got to
    20%. The average now is around 15% but CBA is still higher than 15%.

    Kohler was saying on ABC TV news at Noon that because the banks will
    not be allowed to fail, (Government G/- & too big to fail etc) its london
    to a brick that their margins will fall a lot more. He cited the government
    bond at around 6% risk free as being what Banks are likely to be
    compared with *going forward*.

    So there is a lot more than meets the eye with all of this.

  9. I haven’t decided if I am up to seeing Chrissy Pyne on Lateline. On the other hand, Bowen is on with him. Could be interesting?

  10. victoria
    [Their behavioiur is all part of the strategy. It has worked a treat for the Rethugs in the US.]
    I have been a bit sceptical whether Abbott can maintain the strategy for the next 3 years (the 6 months up to the election was one thing; 36 months???)

    As you say, the US Repugs have kept it up for 2 years…though the circumstances in the US are just so dire, that one could/ought to expect greater underlying fear there

  11. [I haven’t decided if I am up to seeing Chrissy Pyne on Lateline]

    If you haven’t been regular for a few days he’s sure to get the motion going… so I’m told 😉

  12. [Someone mentioned earlier about why the Churches are silent over the AS issues.]
    That was me Finns. I just wondered why church leaders are soooooo very silent on the refugee issue.
    [So why the Jewish Lobby Groups are silent over this? They are usually very vocal.]
    They will be the reason why the Rabbott was trying to pull the photo.

  13. [of course the MSM would treat this as a bit of a laugh, just the boyo thing.]

    That’s if they cover it at all. So far it’s only been The West Australian, Fairfax and VexNews (though the latter is not “mainstream”). It seems to have skipped the other outlets’ attention. {wink wink} Now I wonder why THAT would be.

  14. my say

    It is great that you make things for children. I cannot sew or knit. Put it this way, I can barely knit a scarf!
    So I help by sponsoring a child from overseas, and volunteer my time in raising money for refugees through my kids’ school.

  15. [So I help by sponsoring a child from overseas, and volunteer my time in raising money for refugees through my kids’ school.]

    You’re a legend Victoria.

  16. Laocoon

    You make a valid point. Things are dire in the US, so the fear factor is mulitplied.
    But just look at this interest rate rise. In fact, interest rates have been very stable under the circumstances. From the backlash that has occurred this week, you would be mistaken for thinking that the banks had been continually raising rates for the past six months. You can thank Hockey and the media for whipping up this hysteria.

  17. dave

    yes sure, lots of moving pieces. Will be interesting to see what happens (I was shocked when I did those numbers to see CBA’s ROE was 18.7%)

    BTW, did you see this cracker from Jim Rogers:
    [Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s decision to pump a further $600 billion into the economy shows his grasp of economics is weak, said investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

    “Dr. Bernanke unfortunately does not understand economics, he does not understand currencies, he does not understand finance,” Rogers, 68, said in a lecture at Oxford University’s Balliol College yesterday. “All he understands is printing money.”

    “His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money,” he said. “Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can.”]
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avuq1q2bCK8w

  18. [Abbott has form. Remember he also wanted his gun slinger days in Afghanistan suppressed.]

    Yes, the infamous woody photos. Do you think he wanted the Toben photos suppressed for the same reason.

    I’m not sure what is more disturbing, a woody from firing guns or one from meeting an anti-semite.

  19. “His whole intellectual career has been based on the study of printing money,” he said. “Give the guy a printing press, he’s going to run it as fast as he can.”

    Nice work if you can get it.

  20. george

    not a legend. It is easy to give money, as compared to putting in your labor to make special items to donate. Unfortunately, I never learnt how to make things.

  21. Lao – Rogers is unfortunately correct.

    Can you think of *any* advanced economy that has to and has made an ongoing
    practice of goosing its stockmarket, manipulating its currency and regularly
    creating all sorts of asset bubbles?

    The US presidency cycle is looking good atm, but its got a casino feel to it all.

  22. Barnett is a Hypocrite:

    [UPDATE: Premier Colin Barnett has accused some Northam residents of prejudice after angry scenes at a crowded town meeting last night over a proposed immigration detention centre.
    Residents booed and heckled officials from the Department of Immigration and Citizenship, Northam Shire and detention centre service provider Serco as they addressed the crowd.
    Mr Barnett today said he was concerned by some of the extreme statements made at the meeting, which he said were not appropriate.
    “It just shows on a sensitive issue like asylum seekers, on what many will see as illegal immigration, this flares the tempers and maybe some of the prejudices that in Australian society,” he said.
    “That’s why issues like this need to be handled carefully, even slowly if that’s what it takes, and sensitively.”
    Mr Barnett added: “I guess many people in the Northam community are feeling the interests of asylum seekers are being put ahead of their interests as local community people.”
    The Premier repeated calls for the number of 1500 single, male asylum seekers to be halved.]

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/8262885/northam-residents-vent-fury-over-camp/

  23. The natives are NOT happy over QE2. i heard an “economist” on CNN today calling the QE2 has turned USA into a “Banana Republic” by printing money to solve a problem.

    That explains why 1 AUD = 1.015 USD

    [HONG KONG – CHINA on Friday led an Asian backlash against measures by the United States to kickstart economy recovery, which have stoked concerns that a flood of loose money could destabilise regional economies.

    The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would pump US$600 billion (S$769 billion) into the economy through debt purchases – effectively printing money – to boost employment and growth. But Asian nations fear the effects of extra cash pumping through the financial system – as traders seek a better return on their dollar than they would get in the West.

    Stock markets, which made big gains in recent weeks as traders anticipated the stimulus, surged on Thursday and Friday on the news. But the plan also prompted warnings of a wave of protectionism and capital control measures by Asian nations to stave off so-called hot money, potentially inflaming tensions ahead of next week’s Group of 20 summit in South Korea.

    Xia Bin, a member of the Chinese central bank’s monetary policy committee, branded the stimulus plan ‘abusive’ and warned it could spark a new global downturn. ‘If there is no restraint in issuing major global currencies such as the US dollar, the occurrence of another crisis is inevitable,’ said Xia, quoted by the Beijing News.

    Mr Xia called on developing countries to impose capital control measures to ‘prevent hot money inflows from impacting their economy’.

    The Bank of Korea warned that inflows of foreign cash had gathered pace in recent months but could abruptly change direction. ‘It is advised, therefore, that measures should be worked out to help curb excessive capital inflows and to prevent their sudden reversal,’ it said in a Financial Stability Report prepared before Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve announcement. — AFP]

  24. It would be good if an Aussie journalist could do a doco on the plight of the refugees.
    Telling their stories etc… Then flashing over to the good christians led by the Rabbott denying them refuge. Screaming, shouting & then throwing to a profile on Dr.Toban & his presence at the rally.

  25. Ah just re-started the Goebbels biograpy and what do I get:
    [Goebbels had a notoriously flexible attitude to any concept of ‘truth’ in his propaganda, and believed that the end justified the means…”…The Volk is at bottom very conservative. It must be completely imbued with our points of view by constant repitition”]
    Godwin’s Law a bit early in this thread, sorry.

  26. Laocoon

    You have to give the coalition credit. They have constantly repeated the AS line. They have learnt well from Goebbels.

  27. [I’m not sure what is more disturbing, a woody from firing guns or one from meeting an anti-semite.]
    Surely the woody story wasn’t true!

  28. castle –

    Yes, the infamous woody photos. Do you think he wanted the Toben photos suppressed for the same reason.

    I’m not sure what is more disturbing, a woody from firing guns or one from meeting an anti-semite.

    As much as I hate to defend abbott – that live fire exercise in afganistan was a setup by
    the Army to show abbott they had the firepower they needed and didn’t need
    lectures from politicians. Abbott realised this after the live firing.

    But he did ask to be embedded with the troops which the army would not entertain under any circumstances.

  29. dave
    Agree, a shocker. A giant ponzi scheme. Some of the posts on zerohedge are damning – comparisons to Zimbabwe etc
    [Can you think of *any* advanced economy that has to and has made an ongoing
    practice of goosing its stockmarket, manipulating its currency and regularly
    creating all sorts of asset bubbles?]
    Well, alas did you see the BoJ response today. Goodness me…
    [Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) — The Bank of Japan may face pressure to expand a monetary stimulus package that is smaller in scale than that of the U.S. Federal Reserve should the yen strengthen further and threaten an export-dependent recovery.

    Japan’s central bank today held the overnight call rate to between zero and 0.1 percent. It also said in Tokyo that part of its 5 trillion yen ($62 billion) asset fund will be used to purchase Japanese real-estate investment trusts with credit ratings of AA or higher…

    In addition to REITs, the BOJ said it will buy ETFs that track the Nikkei 225 Stock Average and the Topix index, and will start purchasing government debt early next week. It plans to buy 3.5 trillion yen in government debt, 500 billion yen each of corporate bonds and commercial paper, 450 billion yen in exchange-traded funds and 50 billion yen for real-estate investment trusts, over a year. The BOJ will start purchasing corporate debt on Dec. 3 and commercial paper on Dec. 10.]
    http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOj2ea9cLuqU

    I’ve missed this whole liquidity run in the last 5 months, but I find it so hard to go long paper when all this is happening

  30. Jesus, all this talk of Goebbels, anti-Semites and the imbuing of the public with a party’s points of view is making me feel nervous ..

  31. Greensborough Growler@140

    Finns,

    The Chinese can’t bitch. They won’t let their currency adjust. This is the reaction.

    That IS the rub GG. The Yanks are lecturing the Chinese about currency manipulation while at the sametime breaking all records for doing so themselves.

  32. I wrote a long post on the last thread, which missed the deadline and got transported to the ether. I’m not going to attempt to re-write it, but the gist of it was that taking on the Coalition right now is a losing game. They’re being shamelessly populist, and they can basically say whatever they like because they’re in opposition and they’re not going to held accountable. They’re happy (witness Hockey with the banks) even to say things that are usually anathema to their party, if it has the slightest chance of resonating.

    You can’t fight it, not really. There’s a ready-made response to it the Coalition can call on if they have a go at it, and that is that the ALP have “stopped listening to the people”. I can hear the slurs now – arrogant, shrill, uncaring, deaf, heartless. It’s a trap Abbott and co would love the ALP to fall into, because it’s probably irreversible.

    The best the ALP can do right now is maintain discipline and correct anything mis-attributed to them where possible. The most important thing, by far, is to keep the independents on-side. As long as they keep doing that, they’ll be fine.

  33. victoria

    Agree, coalition sloganning was very effective: turn back the boats, stop the waste, pay back the debt and no GBNT.

    It’s probably more than I recall of Labor’s campaign 🙁

  34. GG, Finns,

    $600B in printed cash as stimulus this late in the game is only going to rebound as inflationary pressures later on. It is all too little too late.

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