Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll is unchanged from the previous fortnight’s result in every significant particular: Labor leads 54-46 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 43 per cent for Labor, 40 per cent for the Coalition and 10.5 per cent for the Greens. The poll encompasses two weekends’ worth of Roy Morgan’s routine face-to-face surveys, encompassing a sample of 1804.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,100 comments on “Morgan: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. Why are we still talking about Rudd regime? ancient history.

    Why are we talking about Glen’s view? also ancient history cause as far as i know he is still a Liberal and wants a Liberal Govt.

    Why are Labor hacks at each other’s throat? – should be ancient history.

  7. If Hillary and Obama can forge a team and work very effectively together. So can Jules and Rudd and that will be the best for Labor’s causes.

  8. William, at least our State, Territory and Federal elections are staggered. How would you cope if you lived in the USA and had all those elections at all levels of Government on that one day in November every second year?

  10. [The FinnigansPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:10 pm | PermalinkWhy are we still talking about Rudd regime? ancient history.
    Why are we talking about Glen’s view? also ancient history cause as far as i know he is still a Liberal and wants a Liberal Govt.
    Why are Labor hacks at each other’s throat? – should be ancient history.
    ]

    I agree, but it seems some here still aren’t capable of cutting of the apron strings of Rudd – He served his purpose of Defeating Howard, did some great things, but like all leaders he somehow manged to screw up.

    As Hank Snow once sang:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ti4G1AX0v-g

  11. Finns,

    Like all good political relationships Gillard and Rudd need each other to be successful in order to be successful themselves.

    There may be personal loathing.but, that is not an impediment to political teams.

  14. victoria,

    It would help his staff if he didn’t blurt out in the press that ‘his job is not to be popular with his customers’.

  15. SK

    Yes, his choice of words are not the best.

    I can’t recall off hand, but does anyone know when was the last rate rise?

  16. [There may be personal loathing.but, that is not an impediment to political teams.]

    The loathing is all one-sided … This is obvious from the photos of the famous meeting during the election campaign.

  17. Dearest William can we have 15 min notice of change of venue./

    Well here we go again.

    Yesterday i received a chain letter email, the text was very strange until you got to the end. There was about 10 very old bible pictures all depicting various bible stories of the life of Jesus.

    At the end of the chain letter of which you where ask to pass on , i deleted of course.

    the statement was made, ” they want to take HIM out of australia, dont let them” wtte.
    I dont know who they are refering to may be someone else will work it out.
    is it because there was talk of prayers being done away with at the beginning of QT.
    was it becauce, not every one used the bible i noticed at the ceremonies swearing in ministers, was it because of the new policy re AS. seekers.

    AS i said i chose to ignore i nearly emailed back and ask why but no like Julia i ignored them, They are a couple in there very late 70 s but there was quite a list of email addresses that it had been forwarded to/
    Was it because Julia is now taken a different approach re the AS, she who has more good in her little finger than many Christians would have, where they having a go at her being an atheist. I dont really know.
    But i do know these people dont think abbott is unchristian which is the scary part, also they expressed to me sometime back some time ago, that they just want their country back,
    Note the word THEIR, i tried explaining the time its not our exclusive country, nothing is exclusive to us we live on earth, no they just wanted the country to be how it was supposed to be.
    But of course they dont see and people like them, that australia was if we followed their reason not really mean for us either , it all changed with the arrival of Cook and those before him and it will keep changing, even in spite of them.
    But as i said the thing that really came home to me is that these people do not see abbott like we do as unchristian, work that one out i cannot.

  18. I support Frank 100% on this.

    The actions of Abbott and co have changed the political and social environment in this country for the worse.

    Through no fault of the new Gillard government( Rudd labor it is gone ) a stark choice now exists in Australia. You either support a ultra right wing party or a party that I believe is finding its social conscience again. There is no grey on this issue anymore. You either support the rubbish Abbott sprouts or you believe people have the right to be treated fairly. No if or but the choice is there. You cannot pick and choose policy anymore. It is not about who has the best health policy or who has the best education policy. It is about what you believe is right. It is about the core issue of what you stand for.

    Gweneth, if you are still there do you have a email address for Chris Bowen. Thanks

  23. [the church leaders in this debate?
    21 victoria
    Posted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:33 pm | Permalink
    my say

    who sent you the email. Do you know?]

    yes

  26. greensborough growler,

    [There may be personal loathing.but, that is not an impediment to political teams.]

    I hope there’s not that much animosity between them. If the series of events as reported is accurate, Julia did not “knife” Kevin. He was asked to vacate the leadership, which he did, and she was the obvious and only viable heir apparent. She did not instigate this chain of events (apparently) and had to be asked (leaned on slightly, perhaps) to come forward at The Time.

    The media and the Opposition (same thing, really) describe it as a “knifing”. That’s a dishonest description. It was not a knifing. It was, when it’s all boiled down, a relatively smooth, though traumatic, leadership transition. If anyone stuck the knife blade into Kevin Rudd’s political heart and twisted it with murderous relish, it was the putrid media themselves – with their campaign against him, the likes of which we have not seen against a sitting PM in a generation.

    THEY, the MEDIA, did the knifing, and they’ve got the gall to accuse Julia Gillard of doing it. Totally without shame, ethics or truthfulness they are. Just like their Coalition partners when you think of it that way.

  27. [like we do as unchristian, work that one out i cannot.
    18 Doyley
    Posted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:32 pm | Permalink
    I support Frank 100% on this.]

    absolutely, it is a hard road to tread this road she is taking we have to be very strong with her and be positive, positive vibes are alwasy felt when people come here and say things like some have said i almost see the negative vibes come out at me.
    thats why i get quite upset.

    Good usually defeats evil as long as you hold your decisions and just let the others argue amoung themselves.
    gradully the numbers fall by the way side and the ones that area easly led by evil thinkers come around but if you stir it and yell and scream they dig their heels in.

  29. GG

    [Like all good political relationships Gillard and Rudd need each other to be successful in order to be successful themselves.

    There may be personal loathing.but, that is not an impediment to political teams.]

    There is a long history of President-VPs who detested each other but worked very successfully.

  30. [CuppaPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:36 pm | Permalinkgreensborough growler,
    There may be personal loathing.but, that is not an impediment to political teams.
    I hope there’s not that much animosity between them. If the series of events as reported is accurate, Julia did not “knife” Kevin. He was asked to vacate the leadership, which he did, and she was the obvious and only viable heir apparent. She did not instigate this chain of events (apparently) and had to be asked (leaned on slightly, perhaps) to come forward at The Time.
    The media and the Opposition (same thing, really) describe it as a “knifing”. That’s a dishonest description. It was not a knifing. It was, when it’s all boiled down, a relatively smooth, though traumatic, leadership transition. If anyone stuck the knife blade into Kevin Rudd’s political heart and twisted it with murderous relish, it was the putrid media themselves – with their campaign against him, the likes of which we have not seen against a sitting PM in a generation.
    THEY, the MEDIA, did the knifing, and they’ve got the gall to accuse Julia Gillard of doing it. Totally without shame, ethics or truthfulness they are. Just like their Coalition partners when you think of it that way.
    ]

    And don’t forget the Croccodfile Tears shed by the Libs on it as well – when they did a MUCH worse thing to Malcolm Turnbull.

  32. [There is a long history of President-VPs who detested each other but worked very successfully.]

    Diog, we “work” together well 😛

  33. [Why are Labor hacks at each other’s throat? – should be ancient history.]

    Erm…’Scuse me. I’m not a Labor hack (though I am a Labor voter, basically) and I could no longer give a stuff about the leadership coup. It happened and it is now necessary to deal with the reality with which we are presented.

    My perception of that reality is that we have a basically good government which is losing the media battle. The results of losing that media battle in the last term led to some, frankly, idiotic policy decisions, feeding into an Opposition/MSM meme of Labor as stand for nothing flip-floppers, leading to further negative public perception and so on.

    As, lilke most on this site I suspect, I don’t support major, knee-jerk policy changes in response to polls and as we can’t realistically expect the MSM or the Opposition to change, if the ALP is going to retain government post-2013, they are going to have to find some means of getting the message out there about the policies they have and are implementing.

    As I noted in the previous thread, it really doesn’t look like more of the same is going to work.

    I concur with much of what Cuppa says here:-

    [Andrew,

    Labor have shown that they are not prepared to change media strategy

    Perhaps it’s premature to come to that conclusion? Admittedly nothing much seems to have been changed yet in their media strategy, though there are some points of light in the occasional interview or press conference when Julia or a Minister stands up against MSM lies and assertions. Not often enough, but it’s a start, and indicates they do know HOW to do it. They just need to DO it more, obviously.

    Labor’s got its review process underway. It should be completed soon. In this unpleasant environment it’s not easy to sit back and wait to see what comes of it. But I think it’s wise to wait and see what, if anything, changes in their media approach subsequent to the review.

    PS: Congratulations, Andrew, on committing to making a submission to the review. More power to ya! I hope they take it fully on board.
    ]

    But I feel a major sense of urgency. We’ve waited three years for Labor to come to grips with a toxic media and the dirtiest opposition in living memory. It is very hard to accept that we need to wait longer. It may be three years until the next election but I think that’s barely long enough. I’ll hold my water until after the review, but once that’s complete, I think delay will prove fatal.

  34. victoria, cuppa,

    I have taken up my own MSM correction campaign. A bit of an ‘each one, teach one’ approach in regards to the reporting of stories. Every time someone quotes to me a falsehood perpetuated by the MSM, I quietly point out the actual facts and demonstrate that the MSM falsely reported the situation. I stay away from pushing my political leanings and let them figure out for themselves that they have been had. Usually, you can see the cogs turning over as they shift their views based on the facts.

  35. [25 victoria
    Posted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 7:35 pm | Permalink
    my say

    so what are you actually confused about]

    I am not confused Victoria i am saying the sender of the chain letter is
    i am asking why they think someone who ever that is is trying to take HIM
    meaning God or Jesus, out of australia.
    I really dont know where they are coming from.

    I would see it the opposite re the Refugees,

    sorry i know i write in a strange way, you being a writer will laugh when i tell you,

    I did a writing course a couple of years ago may be 15 now time flies,
    and the teacher was very impressed with my short story, i am not joking,.

    The sentence was, ” she looked through the shutters between the cobwebs and the memories of his youthful face came back in to her thoughts”

    and we had to go from there i have still got the story and i have a laugh from time to time but it wasn’t bad really lol

  38. [Erm…’Scuse me. I’m not a Labor hack (though I am a Labor voter, basically) and I could no longer give a stuff about the leadership coup. It happened and it is now necessary to deal with the reality with which we are presented.

    My perception of that reality is that we have a basically good government which is losing the media battle. The results of losing that media battle in the last term led to some, frankly, idiotic policy decisions, feeding into an Opposition/MSM meme of Labor as stand for nothing flip-floppers, leading to further negative public perception and so on.]

    agree. AGREE

    BUT WHAT IS A HACK this is another silly word in our vocabulary, same as thought bubble, sound bites all the rubbish that is creeping in to English i know it has to evolve but really do we have to follow the msm and their words.

    Andrew why are you so anit and negative

    now its off to watch a bit of telly with my dearest Oh

  41. Cuppa,

    Unlike the Julia brigade who constantly tell us all to move on and haven’t themselves, I have actually moved on. However, I won’t allow the Rudd blackguarders go on with their crap.

    1. Gillard was and is a player.
    2. All the plotters seem to have been promoted which makes you so confident about their motives. Not.
    3. Labor have done remarkably poorly in polls since the knifing.
    4. By running to the election, Labor managed to chrystallise their unpopularity.
    5. WA won 3 seats for Labor. How much more badly would Labor have done under Rudd in October?
    6 Hugh has just completed a huge qualtitative study that indicated that Gillard’s process for becoming PM really pissed off the punters and she hasn’t been afforded any legitimacy as yet. (See hung Parliament).

    So yeah, I’ve moved on. But, don’t feed me the bulldust of it would have been worse under Kev.

  42. GG@40

    [5. WA won 3 seats for Labor. How much more badly would Labor have done under Rudd in October?
    ]

    Had the original Mining Tax still been in place – try 0 or at “Best” 1 ALP seat.

    Twiggy’s bleatings and the “Miner’s Rally” galvanised the punters locally – and it wasn’t for the ALP.

  44. GG

    I actually agree with you. The desperate rewriting of history is very ordinary and Paul Howes’ performance today was a disgrace.

    Rudd was knifed. Whether he was knifed by Gillard, Swan, Arbib, Feeney, Shorten, Howes or the cleaning lady can be debated ad nauseam but there is no getting around the fact he was knifed. Whether it was in the back or the front is also debatable.

  45. Well i have moved on and i do beleive it would of been worse, I dont know who you talk to but look leave it at that.

    how long does it take you lot to move on, No wonder some liberals still want menzies

  48. [DiogenesPosted Friday, November 5, 2010 at 8:03 pm | PermalinkGG
    I actually agree with you. The desperate rewriting of history is very ordinary and Paul Howes’ performance today was a disgrace.
    Rudd was knifed. Whether he was knifed by Gillard, Swan, Arbib, Feeney, Shorten, Howes or the cleaning lady can be debated ad nauseam but there is no getting around the fact he was knifed. Whether it was in the back or the front is also debatable.
    ]

    How can one be knifed when they decide they will withdraw their nomination for a Ballot ?

  49. to be truthfull i didnt think anyof you would still be going over old ground,
    i dont think Kevin is so why are intellegent people like you still doing it.
    and Dio you are a green.

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