Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. GG hardly the ALP will probably be forced into a hung parliament IMHO despite the incompetence of the Libs.

    Baillieu will lose his job and they’ll be around 3 Greens in the LA in Victoria.

    Labor will be heading for a NSW defeat the size of what will happen next year in 2014 I reckon.

  3. So no apology Pegasus for your wrongful accusation this morning?

    I can’t say I’m surprised. I am however, disappointed.

  9. Glen,

    Another scenario is that Libs have been so pathetic, they are in danger of losing seats in their heartland. Probably the three they picked up last time.

    Greens are failing the credibility crunch check atm.

    Could be Brumby forever, comrade.

  15. @SassyLang Why do “they” need the word marriage???!!!! #qanda No wonder The Australian is not worth wiping my arse on.
    .

  16. Newspoll

    JULIA Gillard?s personal support is beginning to slip as Labor?s support sticks at a four-year low.

    The Prime Minister’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister has been cut back to equal the worst position she was in during the election campaign.

    According to the latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian last weekend, Ms Gillard’s rating as preferred prime minister dropped four percentage points in the last weeks to 49 per cent, her equal lowest rating.

    During the same time the Leader of the Opposition’s rating rose two points to 34 per cent, bringing him with 15 points of Ms Gillard as the better prime minister. This is equal to Mr Abbott’s second-best performance against Ms Gillard and his best since the election.

    The fall in the Prime Minister’s support came as Labor’s standing continued at a four-year low of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 52 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. The two-party preferred figures are based on the preference flows at the 2010 election.

    It is the first time the Coalition has had successive four-point leads over the ALP on a two-party preferred basis since 2006.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-hits-four-year-low-newspoll/story-fn59niix-1225949644132

  17. The fact that her ‘equal lowest rating’ is 49%, I’d say that’s not too bad for the PPM stakes.

    52-48 is not good – but polling at this point of the electoral cycle is total and utter BS.

    Remember Rudd’s 60-40s? Ha!

  18. JULIA Gillard?s personal support is beginning to slip as Labor?s support sticks at a four-year low.

    The Prime Minister’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister has been cut back to equal the worst position she was in during the election campaign.

    Is it time for Possum’s Pollytrend to return?

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