Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 thoughts on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Why so unkind to centre?

    Gus, i told you i am 5degree to the left of centre and dash to right occasionally to look at their hot chicks. 😡

  6. Frank:

    Remember that all this has come about because I challenged Greens advocates here on their labelling of Labor and Liberal commenters here as hacks and partisans. Obviously it’s struck a nerve judging from the reaction. 😆

  7. Yep, I’m aware of that book, Diog. and the chapter. Not only that, but some social work colleagues were gobsmacked by the psychologists muscling their way into intensive care to do debriefing with the people who’d suffered significant burns after the Bali bombings at a major Melbourne hospital. Like how stupid is that?

  8. And now for something completely different. 👿

    If a little pimple like Mt. Merapi is causing such problem. Imagine if Anak Krakatau erupts. Anak happens to be located strategically in Sunda Strait (between Sumatra and Java) with Jakarta and Singapore not too far away. It is also a very busy shipping lane. The whole of Southeast Asia will be paralysed.

    When Daddy Krakatau erupted in 1883. It was the most powerful volcano eruption in modern history. The sound of the eruption was heard in Africa and the plates were trembling.

    International flights to Indonesia’s capital Jakarta returned to normal on Monday, officials said, a day ahead of a visit by US President Barack Obama, after volcanic ash caused a weekend of travel chaos.

    The eruption of Mount Merapi forced airlines to cancel eight flights on Sunday and 36 flights on Saturday, but officials said there would be no repeat of events in Iceland this year when a volcano disrupted transport across Europe.

    “Everything has returned to normal today,” Air Transport’s Director General Herry Bakti told Agence France-Presse, referring to flights in and out of Soekarno Hatta international airport in Jakarta.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    Obama is scheduled to arrive in Jakarta on Tuesday for a highly anticipated – and twice delayed – visit and US Embassy spokesman Paul Belmont said the trip “will go ahead as planned”.

    http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/jakarta-flights-resume-after-volcano-chaos-20101108-17k9m.html

  9. Diog and confessions, the most marvellous writer on cross cultural psychiatry, both a psychiatrist and an anthropologist, is Arthur Kleinmann.

    Thanks for that HSO, will investigate.

  10. confessions,

    They’re very sensitive at the moment. The electorate is trying to make them accountable which apparently is very unfair.

    I expect more teenage type tantrums from the immatures.

  12. confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:37 pm | PermalinkFrank:
    Remember that all this has come about because I challenged Greens advocates here on their labelling of Labor and Liberal commenters here as hacks and partisans. Obviously it’s struck a nerve judging from the reaction.

    Oh course, to them it’s do what I do, not what as I say 🙂

  14. Greensborough GrowlerPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:40 pm | Permalinkconfessions,
    They’re very sensitive at the moment. The electorate is trying to make them accountable which apparently is very unfair.
    I expect more teenage type tantrums from the immatures.

    As evidenced by events in WA in the last 24 hours 🙂

  15. o dear tp is back and he was the one many many months ago that said Julia would be great Pm material i hope you all remember that.

  16. GusfacePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:42 pm | PermalinkBTW
    STOP BASHING THE GREENS

    libs are more fun

    Gus,

    My bashing is selective – St Bob, Bandt and even Mothers Milne and Hanson-Young are keeping their side of the deal.

    It’s the lay acolytes who post here who get my “treatment” 🙂

  18. I’ll get some actual references to you tomorrow, confessions and Diog. Going to watch Q&A, masochist perhaps!

  19. STOP BASHING THE GREENS

    Then continue to see Labor’s PV drop GG.

    The Greens are taking votes off Labor not the Libs.

    If Labor doesnt confront the Greens then they could be looking at a rump base vote of 30% at every election.

  20. They’re very sensitive at the moment. The electorate is trying to make them accountable which apparently is very unfair.

    I can’t see why. Aren’t Greens supposed to welcome ‘proper’ scrutiny of their policies? 😆

    STOP BASHING THE GREENS

    Gus: nobody is bashing the Greens, merely attempting to clarify their ahem position on matters ‘hack’.

  22. GlenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:47 pm | PermalinkSTOP BASHING THE GREENS
    Then continue to see Labor’s PV drop GG.
    The Greens are taking votes off Labor not the Libs.
    If Labor doesnt confront the Greens then they could be looking at a rump base vote of 30% at every election.

    Seen the Green PV on essential ??

    Oh and hope your happy with Adele crossing the Rubicon 🙂

    Troy did well.

  28. lizziePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:49 pm | PermalinkMinchin’s plane couldn’t land because of elec storms.

    If I was appearing on Q&A I would ensure I was in town at least 24 hours prior to show time.

  29. QandShoe

    “What the heck happened to the Labor Party?”

    Any casual observer of PB can see what’s happened.

    And

    Stop Gunung Marapi

  30. HSO:

    I’d be very interested in any material you have on this issue.

    There’s also the issue of mental health among specific CaLD groups, and refugees and those who have been in detention. I’m in awe of those who work with disadvantaged communities, and always love reading about their insight and experiences.

  32. I see that thoroughly discredited Thomas Paine character has re-emerged from his months’ long cavale.

    Poll Bludger really does have some gems!

    In any case, here’s one economic story he might find of interest:

    Is America a Banana Republic?

    Nicholas Kristof: “The richest 1 percent of Americans now take home almost 24 percent of income, up from almost 9 percent in 1976. As Timothy Noah of Slate noted in an excellent series on inequality, the United States now arguably has a more unequal distribution of wealth than traditional banana republics like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Guyana.”

    “C.E.O.’s of the largest American companies earned an average of 42 times as much as the average worker in 1980, but 531 times as much in 2001. Perhaps the most astounding statistic is this: From 1980 to 2005, more than four-fifths of the total increase in American incomes went to the richest 1 percent.”

    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/07/is_america_a_banana_republic.html

  35. 531 vpPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:54 pm | PermalinkTea party and Australian populism: is there a link?

    You did hear Mike Williams last Sturday night/Sunday morning ?

    You have your answer right there.

  37. confessions,

    Remember that all this has come about because I challenged Greens advocates here on their labelling of Labor and Liberal commenters here as hacks and partisans. Obviously it’s struck a nerve judging from the reaction.

    In relation to our exchange, your rationalisations are endearing 😉

    Have a good night 🙂

  43. Glen,

    If the Libs don’t confront their supporters, it will be be pretty ugly.

    So far VECCI, Rupert and the Master Builders are saying don’t pref the Greens and today the AMA are endorsing Labor’s policy.

    Have you seen the Baillieu “Ummm” ad?

    Libs will be lucky to hold Portsea at this rate.

  44. Janet thinks Tea Party is the ant’s pants.

    Brandy defends Tea Party

    It’s Their ABC after all… why does anyone even still watch Australia’s answer to Fox News?
    Boycott their Q&A, Onesiders, Communist Kerry’s 7:30 Reportland and any other of their right-wing news and current affairs programs.

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