Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [
    And then there was “Ye Olde Pissweak World”
    ]

    Ah thanks for that Frank, another Classic. “Now even pissier” 😆

    Being that your from WA, I’m mighty impressed you know Wobbies World inspired Pissweak world 🙂

  3. [Aren’t they cigarettes? A bogan aunt smoked them when I was a kid.]
    Nah! An ice skating rink then you could toddle off to the old Luna Park or if hot jump into St.Kilda beach.
    I think its all upmarket now.

  4. Finns it’s pouring in the north west at the moment.

    I think a few of us are planning to go the centre of excitement pretty soon. The guys are only allowed in if they wear all black. Can’t say anymore 😎 😈

  5. Centre

    Looks like your lot in Sydney a copping a bit of a downpour. I don’t know why Melbourne always gets a bad rap weatherwise. You guys seem to get a lot of storms.

  6. bojo:

    I’ve never understood the whole ‘Rudd can’t communicate’ meme. He’s always come across crystal clear to me.

  9. Diog, very difficult to assess. If you’ve got “Australian Story” on now, you’ll know why.
    People like this woman are deeply disturbed but difficult to engage in treatment. The program is yet again bagging the child protection system, but there is no Australia wide child protection system, as there is no Australia wide mental health system. Unless there is Australia wide systems for both, there will be no long term answers.
    I’m so sick of these programs that diss the people working in these inadequate systems.

  10. Have any PBers registered for the Take back politics forum?
    Only after I registered they informed me by email that VOIP with headphones was necessary.

  11. [madcyrilPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:12 pm | Permalink And then there was “Ye Olde Pissweak World”
    Ah thanks for that Frank, another Classic. “Now even pissier”
    Being that your from WA, I’m mighty impressed you know Wobbies World inspired Pissweak world
    ]

    You do realise The Late Show made it across the Nullabour 🙂

  12. I must say I have to agree with TP and his comments and I am normally a labor supporter. Labor seems to be getting worse. The economics team is weak (Swan, wong and Shorten )at getting any messages out there and once you lose voters it is hard to get them back. The essential poll ananlysis shows where labor has done well e.g unemployment, it is not showing thru in the results.
    The Paul Howes and Richardson are out there with a whole lot of rubbish, not helping the labor movement. They is part of the problem as well.

  13. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:15 pm | Permalinkbojo:
    I’ve never understood the whole ‘Rudd can’t communicate’ meme. He’s always come across crystal clear to me.
    ]

    Maybe to us Laborites this is the case – but for the Kath and Kims he is “too nerdy” for them – Howie othe other hand was everyone’s favouritye Grandfather type figure.

  14. Victoria, the weather is always better in Sydney than Melbourne. You know it’s a bit like global warming, it’s all cyclical 😛

  15. Okay, I guess I just have to find the time to respond for the sake of “the record m’lord”.

    Apologies to those who, like me, find these personal exchanges as boring as anything but if individuals by themselves, and in concert with others in a pack attack, want to sling mud then they can expect I will sometimes respond.

    My latest exchange with confessions began with: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/05/morgan-54-46-to-labor-3/comment-page-18/#comment-678012

    Yep, as I suspected. Why should anyone take your view seriously? You are no better than Pegasus, Adam, GP or Mod Lib when it comes to Party attachment – you simply adhere to whatever the party says with no clear logic or reason in your rationalisation.

    Here follows an historical record to put the current exchange in context. I have included links to all quotes so that they can be examined in context. Note the complete absence of any linked sources used by confessions to support her opinions.

    ——————————————————————————————–

    1. confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-21/#comment-625677

    So the upshot of all this is that Bob Brown’s “governing from opposition” invitation to Abbott is just populist nonsense designed to hog the media spotlight?

    2. Pegasus: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-22/#comment-625714

    What is there to get? The Greens Party is a political party in its own right with a policy platform it wants to see implemented. Why wouldn’t it seek to negotiate with Abbott or anyone else in policy areas that have overlap.

    3. Confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-22/#comment-625721

    Brown is a shrill populist, known for talking out both sides of his mouth, and counter to his own party’s policies.
    It’s entirely valid to hold the Greens to account for their public comments.

    4. Pegasus: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-22/#comment-625730

    Your bigotry is plain to see.

    5. confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-22/#comment-625736

    I see. So criticising the public conduct of political leaders now amounts to bigotry in the eyes of some.

    6. Pegasus: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-24/#comment-625817

    Your appraisal of BB and the words you use indicate a rigidly held belief or perception that would not be swayed by any evidence. This is indicated by “known for”.

    It’s entirely valid to hold the Greens to account for their public comments.

    Indeed it is. However you expressed a personal opinion only and did not provide any facts or evidence to back up your emotively laden assertion.

    7. Confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-24/#comment-625837

    It’s actually based on evidence of his own public statements on a variety of different issues: PPL, company tax, ‘governing from oppositon’ remarks today, even climate change.
    I get that you can’t tolerate criticism of the Greens – in that regard you are no different from any of the other rigid partisans here.

    8. Pegasus: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-26/#comment-625921

    Actually, I rarely become involved in personality politics. I never make personal comments about any individual politician of any persuasion. My posts usually consist of sourced evidence in response to the more egregious BS bandied about here of Greens Party policies and emotive, unsubstantiated opinions designed to discredit individual Greens parlimentarians.
    You really don’t get it. I do not agree with every aspect of any political party’s policy, religion, creed, or philosophy. On balance, for me, the Greens Party platform best represents, for me, at this point in time, the vision of a fairer and more equitable society which I hope for.
    It will not happen in my life time but I retain my optimism. My feet are firmly grounded in reality. I do not care if the Greens disappear from the political scene so long as aspects of many of their policies and its long term vision are adopted by the major parties.
    By all means, criticise the Greens but I prefer a rational and evidence-based argument rather than opinions solely based on belief.

    9. confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/08/victorian-federal-redistribution-and-other-tales/comment-page-26/#comment-625941

    I’m happy to participate in evidence-based argument, but if you just want to call people names when they post something you disagree with, then leave me out of it. I’m simply not interested.

    —————————————————————————————

    One definition of a bigot: a person obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices.

    A prejudice is a prejudgment: i.e. an assumption made about someone or something before having adequate knowledge to be able to do so with guaranteed accuracy. The word prejudice is most commonly used to refer to a preconceived judgment toward a people or a person because of race, social class, gender, ethnicity, age, disability, political beliefs, religion, sexual orientation or other personal characteristics. It also means beliefs without knowledge of the facts[1] and may include “any unreasonable attitude that is unusually resistant to rational influence.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prejudice

    And now this.

    confessions: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/essential-research-51-49-to-coalition/comment-page-5/#comment-678485

    Perhaps it would be sensible to see the whole picture before condemning people, rather than labelling them in highly judgemental fashion without evidence?

  16. Mr BK

    I note your latest adventure with several alarums. To drive a “medium-rigid” truck is foolhardy at best, madness among the young. At least obtain a “rigid” truck, you fool, not a floppy one! Are you mad?

  17. Lizzie

    For better or worse, I think they did. Sure he bought his way in, and the times economically were good to him, and he wrapped himself in the flag so often you wanted to puke, but I reckon they did. i work with lots of people who just felt… comfortable with him… good ol’ johnny. Plenty at footy matches cheered him – classic case of voting against your own economic interests. Worked, as you say, for 11 years.

  23. [
    You do realise The Late Show made it across the Nullabour
    ]

    Yes, but I’m sure alot of people wouldn’t have got the Wobbies World inspiration, seeming it was such a crappy local theme park. That was why I was impressed. 🙂

  25. bojo

    well the people I hung around with did not at all feel comfortable with Johnny. Don’t ask me why but my mum and aunt used to call him and Janette, Mickey and Minnie Mouse. It was not in an endearing way 🙂

  26. confessions

    There is lots of stuff about the need for culturally-specific mental health care. A friend recommended this book to me about it.

    [He argues convincingly that cultural differences belie any sort of western template for diagnosing and treating mental illness, and that the rapid spread of American culture threatens our very understanding of the human mind: “We should worry about the loss of diversity in the world’s differing conceptions of treatments for mental illness in the same way we worry about the loss of biodiversity in nature.”]

    Crazy Like Us: The Globalization of the American Psyche

    http://www.amazon.com/Crazy-Like-Us-Globalization-American/dp/141658708X/ref=pd_ybh_5?pf_rd_p=280800601&pf_rd_s=center-2&pf_rd_t=1501&pf_rd_i=ybh&pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_r=1J7YD3CPHRR2B807P7NR

  28. [Mr BK
    I note your latest adventure with several alarums. To drive a “medium-rigid” truck is foolhardy at best, madness among the young. At least obtain a “rigid” truck, you fool, not a floppy one! Are you mad?]
    Scringler
    Thanks for your concern.

  30. Pegasus: And everything as I recalled.

    So will you apologise for accusing me of being “selective” in my recollections? That’s your accusation, not mine.

  31. [475 victoriaPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:22 pm | Permalinkbojo
    well the people I hung around with did not at all feel comfortable with Johnny. Don’t ask me why but my mum and aunt used to call him and Janette, Mickey and Minnie Mouse. It was not in an endearing way
    ]

    THere was a famous piece of footage from the last election of Howard campaigning for Ken Wyatt at Midland Gate shopping Centre and there were a couple of young girls young enough to be his Grandchildren treating him like Justin Beiber.

  32. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 9:25 pm | PermalinkPegasus: And everything as I recalled.
    So will you apologise for accusing me of being “selective” in my recollections? That’s your accusation, not mine.
    ]

    Don’t hold your breath – he can’t find a URL with an apology in it 🙂

  34. Frank

    I recall a number of those scenes of both Howard and Abbott (and perhaps Rudd), in which after all the screaming and dancing, the kids turned and said wtte “who was that celebrity?” Takes away the magic, really.

  35. Confessions at: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/05/morgan-54-46-to-labor-3/comment-page-21/#comment-678159
    [You called me a bigot when I called Bob Brown a populist]
    Again, no link, no context.

    Are you the only poster here who accuses BB of being a populist? I doubt it and if that is the case why did I challenge you and only you on it?

    [That’s the point when I decided you weren’t worth responding to, and told you that if you can’t be courteous with other commenters, to leave me out of your tirades.]
    I will let impartial others judge me for my comparative level of courtesy on this blog and whether my posts constitute “tirades” when compared to other posters.

    I will let impartial others judge me whether I initiate name-calling and denigration of other posters or whether I sometimes respond to it to defend myself from such attacks.

    [How selective of you not to remember.]
    Again, casting aspersions about my account of my recollections. Do you remember all the posts in which you have denigrated others including Bob Brown?

    [FTR I don’t care about partisans – we’re all partisans here in one way or another. What irks me is that some seem content to pretend they aren’t really partisan, yet accuse others of behaving in that way]
    Show me where I have asserted that I am or am not partisan.

    Show me where I have accused you of being partisan.
    [In my experience, this behaviour is more common to Greens voters than others, who seem to love bandying around the word “hack”, oblivious to the reality that the term can be equally labelled at them.]
    Show me where I have bandied around the word “hack” and specifically labelled you as such.

    Thank you for your completely impartial and unbiased opinion that again reveals your prejudice – a prejudice that is reiterated at: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/11/08/essential-research-51-49-to-coalition/comment-page-3/#comment-678358
    [In my experience of various blogs, your definition applies far more to Greens voters than it does to either Labor or Liberal.]
    Such a strongly held belief 😉

  36. My youngest daughter was on an excursion with the school years back. Who comes through? Howard & his entourage. My daughter said Howard came at her and gave her a big hug & all she could think was, “Hope mum doesn’t see this”. Pleased to say she did not reciprocate the hug, looked more like a stunned mullet.

  39. Dio:

    Thanks for that.

    Ian Anderson and Marshall Watson are others you might want to look up. Admittedly Anderson is more experienced and published than Watson, who is still training to be a psychiatrist. But both being indigenous have a unique cultural insight to mental health issues.

  40. I should add that HSO might find the chapter in “Crazy Like Us” about the Westerners who flocked to Sri Lanka after the tsunami to treat their PTSD esp interesting. It is particularly scathing of the paternalistic approach which gets it all wrong.

  41. [BK
    I asked you in an earlier post, if you were a sucker for punishment?]
    vic
    One could be forgiven for coming to that conclusion.

  43. Punna

    To the extent that food is vital to one’s continued existence, the Tassie project does have that element. However. Although I find the fish excellent, the lamb frisky and the road-kill tasty, food is not the vital magnet. The answer lies in the dirt, in an historical sense.

  44. Diog and confessions, the most marvellous writer on cross cultural psychiatry, both a psychiatrist and an anthropologist, is Arthur Kleinmann. See the “Illness Narratives” and anything he’s written in the learned journals, such as, “Culture, Illness and Care”. I use his stuff all the time in our multi-cultural environment for staff to use with our population and for our mostly overseas medical staff to learn to navigate cultural difference.

  49. Harry SO

    I wish someone had taught me how to navigate cultural difference when I first landed in Aus.
    Seriously.
    It must be bloody difficult for someone who doesn’t have even a smattering of the language.

  50. Pegasus,

    Your self righteous waffle is a bore. If you want to play, play.

    Lectures by tossers like you get no resonance here and are mostly skipped (disappointing as that may be to your ego).

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