Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Is there a theory as to why Essential seem to be showing the Greens at unusually low numbers? This seemed to also be the case in the Victorian poll they put out last week

  4. And to those who think that Mark Scott is in bed with the Libs, it is just not true.

    [mikebairdMP Enjoyed lunch with @abcmarkscott and senior ABC team today-impressive group of talent but despite prodding no news on the 730 job to report ]

  5. Re: Abbott and interest rate rises.
    Abbott, as usual, tries to make the point that anything that has happened in the past 3 yrs that is different to the Howard years must be Labor’s ‘fault’. Easy point to make as so few people (inc PB-ers) don’t have all the facts immediately to disprove him.
    Changing circumstances always affect outcomes, but the easy blame game works.
    As Alan Kohler wrote on The Drum, bank/non-structures are no longer the same as before 2008.

  8. i would say that the people who are connected to essential for polling every week
    would all have mortgages,. not much long term thinking going on at the moment in the heads of the electorate its who can yell the loudest at the moment and that seems like hockey.
    australians have a very short attention span when it comes to their money.

  10. lizzie

    The coalition are fully aware of the changed circumstances. They are “banking” on the average person not being clued in, and guess what, they are right.

  11. o and you have to join your self so a few libs may have got to hear about this and joined essential in the hope they may get that random email
    tried to join myself but it seemed a complicated form so gave up in the end.

  15. I have just taken part in an online opinion poll (Vic) and I found the questions far too simplistic, to the extent that there was nowhere to tease out my real opinion.
    Questions such as
    Who will you vote for? Who do you usually vote for? Who do you think will win?

  16. Yes Victroria thats from what i understand i get my report send to me at the same time as william and crickey would
    just go to the web site and they will send it to you you just put your email on the list and then you can join their list to get polled if you wish.

  18. Evidently the referendum was part of the Greens-Labor coalition deal.

    [The promise to pursue constitutional recognition was part of the deal that Labor struck with the Greens after the August 21 election.]

  19. victoria

    Yup, that’s the standard of ignorance they (we) can all bank on today. Much more important is who won the latest reality show. When there are magazines about the pretend characters in TV ‘dramas’ which speculate about the characters’ future, I can’t believe what an unreal world most people live in . Always excepting PB-ers, of course 😆

  23. Diog
    [Perhaps just saying they were the first human inhabitants then.]
    Sadly, some people would not completely agree with all these words!

    Constitutional change is difficult here. Similarly it is difficult in the USA (ERA anybody) – so I have been thinking about the “Constitutional Amendments” which the Tea Partiers propose in their ten-point “Contract from America” – they have got next to zero chance of getting anything through the convoluted US process.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_from_America

  24. [Surely a poll which relies on volunteers to register isn’t a fair sample?]

    The overall 2 party preferred result is quite similar to that shown by Newspoll.

  25. [Surely a poll which relies on volunteers to register isn’t a fair sample?]

    I seem to remember Possum and possibly William commenting on this extensively. The conclusion was that Essential’s methods are valid. The fact that Essential moves broadly in accordance with the other pollsters would tend to bear this out.

  26. [GaryPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 3:01 pm | PermalinkMOE surely.
    ]

    And JoHo’s Banks are teh Spawn of Satan mmkay.

    And I see the NaySayers have still got their collective heads in the sand and have seen fit to go against a couuple of others who have backed me.

    Typical – no wonder people flock to the libs when they see that sort of attitude.

    You reap what you sow.

  27. RR

    [ Perhaps just saying they were the first human inhabitants then.

    Sadly, some people would not completely agree with all these words!]

    Which bit! The “first”, the “human” or the “inhabitants”. We’re running out of options. I can’t water it down any further!

  28. The first comment in the Alan Kohler article posted earlier is interesting:

    The Commonwealth has form on charging for its services. It all started at the beginning of the 1960s when the Commonwealth Savings Bank [CSB], at that time far and away the largest bank in the country, and the biggest home loan lender, changed its policy on customers paying off their loans. Customers traditionally gave the bank a standing authority to deduct the monthly repayment from their savings account. There was no charge for this as at the time the bank saw that it was in their interest not to have thousands of customers queuing up to pay the instalments in cash. However, exercising their strength, the CSB decided to charge two shillings for each monthly transaction. This was not a large amount but it broke new ground for CSB customers, overwhelmingly ordinary wage earners who couldn’t afford a cheque account. Having got away with that first charge the Commonwealth has lead the charge, excuse the pun, especially after it took over other, predominately State, banks.

    So much for a government bank restraining the others, the rationale used by those arguing that the Gillard Government should allow Australia Post to go into the banking business.

    I wouldn’t keep my money in any bank that put the political whim of the government of the day ahead of my interests. Would you trust your hard earned to Abbott, Hockey and Robb?

    And while I’m on the subject of the banks, who believes that if the banks are forced to limit home loan rates they will just accept the loss and not make it up elsewhere from its customers?

  30. Any guesses on the result of the next Newspoll ? 🙂

    My guess is 52-48 to the Coalition … no change from the previous Newspoll.

  31. I think the key here is that this is the first time the Coalition have pulled ahead with Essential Research and those points aren’t going over to the Greens.

    It is clear that the ALP has a lot of work to do. I also think it is folly to just write this off as poor polling early in a political term and hope it will somehow bounce back at some indeterminate point in the future. The govt has a message problem it needs to sort out and it shouldn’t take too long to do so or else they might just find that voters’ opinions have become solidified.

  32. You can see where Labor needs to devote its attention from the ER. The following are rated by more than half the people as very concerned;

    Petrol and energy prices
    Excessive executive salaries
    Affordability of housing
    Not enough regulation of banks

  33. Confessions from the previous blog,

    [No, I was referring to you. I see you in the same way I see Frank: as someone who is unable (or unwilling) to criticise the party you vote for. But at least Frank is honest in that he can openly admit his partisanship.]

    Cute & a bit cheeky given you’ve only just plucked up the courage to criticise your party. I gather this is a hold out from when I called you a Labor party hack?

    What aspect of the Greens do I have to criticise to win the “Confessions stamp of approval”? That I don’t rate Sarah Hanson-Young or Christine Milne? Will that suffice? Of course it won’t because unlike some on here I’m no party hack.

  34. [Diogenes
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 3:26 pm | Permalink
    You can see where Labor needs to devote its attention from the ER. The following are rated by more than half the people as very concerned;

    Petrol and energy prices
    Excessive executive salaries
    Affordability of housing
    Not enough regulation of banks]

    Yet petrol isnt that expensive

  38. vic

    Labor is obviously losing cf the COALition on petrol and energy prices and on banking regulation (prob only temporarily on the latter though). The other two are probably lineball on who would win them.

  39. [ Affordability of housing

    I still reckon this issue is the biggy. Damned if I know what the Government can do about it though]

    Perhaps cutting foreign ownership.

  40. [Affordability of housing

    I still reckon this issue is the biggy. Damned if I know what the Government can do about it though]

    Like with the Renewable Energy Target- regulate that developers put a certain % of every greenfield devt into affordable housing rather than mcmansions.

  41. [DiogenesPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 3:39 pm | Permalink Affordability of housing
    I still reckon this issue is the biggy. Damned if I know what the Government can do about it though
    Perhaps cutting foreign ownership.
    ]

    Try restricting the amount of “Investment” Properties people are allowed to have.

  42. FC

    [Try restricting the amount of “Investment” Properties people are allowed to have.]

    Yep. Even worse are all the empty second houses-holiday homes.

  43. [Affordability of housing

    I still reckon this issue is the biggy. Damned if I know what the Government can do about it though]

    Crack down on unscrupulous real estate agents price gouging with 6-monthly rent increases.

  44. victoria
    [Home Buyers grants have not made housing more affordable. Govt intervention has not helped in this area.]
    There was a feature story in our local rag about a young couple who have to sell their house because they cannot afford the repayments.
    Single income of $849 & half in mortgage repayment. They are in dire straights because when they purchased their property they had two incomes. The wife fell pregnant & gave her job away. WTH? It was being spun as ‘someone else'(the governments) fault.

  45. But seriously, how hard is it to restrict executive salaries. It needs to be done. Its not like no one would want to be CBA CEO if the pay was only 5mil/pa instead of 16 mil.

  46. [Evidently the referendum was part of the Greens-Labor coalition deal.

    The promise to pursue constitutional recognition was part of the deal that Labor struck with the Greens after the August 21 election.]

    This was the proposed preamble rejected in 1999. Immigrants got a look-in then as well. There was a higher “No” vote for this than for the republic. IIRC Howard got Les Murray to pen something but he refused to put in the “mateship” that Howard wanted.

    [With hope in God, the Commonwealth of Australia is constituted as a democracy with a federal system of government to serve the common good.
    We the Australian people commit ourselves to this Constitution:
    proud that our national unity has been forged by Australians from many ancestries;
    never forgetting the sacrifices of all who defended our country and our liberty in time of war;
    upholding freedom, tolerance, individual dignity and the rule of law;
    honouring Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders, the nation’s first people, for their deep kinship with their lands and for their ancient and continuing cultures which enrich the life of our country;
    recognising the nation-building contribution of generations of immigrants;
    mindful of our responsibility to protect our unique natural environment;
    supportive of achievement as well as equality of opportunity for all;
    and valuing independence as dearly as the national spirit which binds us together in both adversity and success.]

  47. [Home Buyers grants have not made housing more affordable.]

    victoria – in fact it has worked against affordability. When the FHP grants came in prices started rising. 1st home buyers were desperate to get in to the market and with non-bank lenders (RAMS, Aussie Home Loans, Wizard, etc.) all ready to organise lending on only the FHP deposit the market went mad.

    Howard introduced the plan to help the housing construction industry through the Asian crisis. 2nd Home buyers were able to sell and upgrade – prices in that market rose.

    It was all ridiculous and at times I had so many files in my office that I virtually worked 24/7 to get through them. All I could see was the stupidity of FH buyers going into fairly heavy debt thinking that all would be well. No matter how much one tried to discuss contingency for interest rate rises, emergencies, etc. it fell on deaf ears because their non-bank and banking institutions were lending the money.

    The result – too many young people now locked out of the housing market or, alternatively, too deeply in debt. A stupid scheme.

    Far better, I think, for the Govt. to take some form of equity in home loans for 1st home buyers.

  48. I suspect “housing affordability” would revolve around (somehow) reducing house prices.

    Now, won’t that be popular. Negative equity anyone? 👿

    Perfect scenario for authorities (like RBA) I suspect would be for affordability to adjust by house prices being flat for a while (like a decade)

  49. Dee,

    half of my pay goes into rent. Maybe more. The rent is increasing 6-monthly, wages are not.

    I have a choice to move and pay more in transport instead, or just live with it. Or I could speculatively move city or move to a region. But then I would lose the support network I have for my young family.

  50. Recently a legal man of my acquaintance told me of a remarkable performance in the court here in Melbourne,involving that slimy toad Landeryou.
    It appears that Landeryou was charged over harassement and vilification on his Blog of a legal figure here in Victoria,
    This has happened before and was the subject of an earlier court action and a warning to cease and desist.
    Landeryou ignored this and was called to the court again
    Initially the Judge gave him a change to speak at some length and then Landeryou gave a stunning performance of spite and paranoia.,which amazed all present !

    When he had finished the judge gave him a very stern reprimand and a warning that any repeat of the actions would result in very severe penalties,as his actions also involved contempt of court.
    Landeryou was obliged to make an abject apology and was warned again of the consequence of a repeat offence
    I know that some on this Blog have quoted Landeryou, in the past …though why any sane person would do so is beyond me …Lately I have tried to enter his Blog to see what he has to say about this matter…but have been unable to.
    Landeryou has used his Blog to intimidate and bully,but must have now met his match!

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