Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.
UPDATE: Full Essential report here.
BH
I think home buyer grants and “for the Govt. to take some form of equity in home loans for 1st home buyers” are both bad policies and only act to increase prices. They increase prices because demand is (“artificially”) inflated.
Harkening back to the old supply/demand curves, to reduce prices, you either reduce demand (e.g. by taxing house capital gains, or even more wildly unlikely, taxing home owner imputed rent!) or you increase suppy. That’s it.
Thanks guys plenty of ideas there. I feel your pain BG, my rent has gone up massively in the last 5 years and wages have certainly not matched the increases. 😡
And when it comes to buying, forget about it!
Paul Howes on Lateline tonight
Frank
[Try restricting the amount of “Investment” Properties people are allowed to have.]
That’s not a silly idea.
When we bought our current home there was a boom for investors. We had to fight to get a look in. Some were buying 3-6 homes at a time. They weren’t as discriminating as us because for them they were rentals.
We have the most generous negative gearing in the world. Problem is the previous government encouraged the aspirational millionaires pushing demand through the roof. Values jumped significantly. Now, with so many mum & dad investors it would be political suicide for any government to reel the benefits back but putting a limitation on investment properties sounds sensible.
[The International Monetary Fund and the OECD have identified Australia as a leader in overpriced housing and its corollary, excessive household debt. We also lead the world in generosity towards negative gearing which, as the Henry report says, “leads to investors taking on too much debt and distorts the rental property market”. There is belatedly growing recognition that you can kill home ownership with kindness. Australia’s unlimited exemptions from capital gains tax, land tax and the pension means-test help to inflate house prices far beyond the reach of most younger Australians, and artificially divert resources from other key sectors of the economy.]
[ou can see where Labor needs to devote its attention from the ER. The following are rated by more than half the people as very concerned;
Petrol and energy prices
Excessive executive salaries
Affordability of housing
Not enough regulation of banks]
These are all the sorts of issues that people inevitably “blame” on whoever is in government. It doesn’t actually mean that they really think the opposition will be able to do a better job on them. More of a case of “you are in government and we don’t like it, even if there really is b*&^*& all you can do about it.”
Re the Green vote being so low on Essential – perhaps it’s those small L Liberals who had voted Greens at the Election, but have “Come home to Mama” back to the Libs ?
Cos the ALP Primary has only gone down by 2% since last week.
[Cos the ALP Primary has only gone down by 2% since last week.]
To 29% !!!
DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 3:55 pm | PermalinkFrank
Try restricting the amount of “Investment” Properties people are allowed to have.
That’s not a silly idea.
When we bought our current home there was a boom for investors. We had to fight to get a look in. Some were buying 3-6 homes at a time. They weren’t as discriminating as us because for them they were rentals.
We have the most generous negative gearing in the world. Problem is the previous government encouraged the aspirational millionaires pushing demand through the roof. Values jumped significantly. Now, with so many mum & dad investors it would be political suicide for any government to reel the benefits back but putting a limitation on investment properties sounds sensible.
]
And no doubt egged on by those stories on TT/ACA encouraging such behaviour and highlighting 12 yr olds and their “Investment Portfolios”.
Howard and his Aspirationals have a LOT to answer for.
The recent GMO quarterly that dave linked to a while back, had an interesting outsider’s obervation that there has been a disconnect between the Australian national government, which has been encouraging very high population growth rates (especially immigration, also also the financial incentives to have children), and the state and local governments which have, by design or default, have had policy outcomes that restrict housing (let alone letting it expand)
[blue_greenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:00 pm | PermalinkCos the ALP Primary has only gone down by 2% since last week.
To 29% !!!
]
No you ingnoramous, to 39% form 41%
[While the bogan finds other classes of investment to be annoyingly abstract, residential property provides the bogan with the ability to cut corners on maintenance, and to smugly survey its empire.
Worried about tales told to it by uninformed bogan friends about stockmarket losses, it will enthusiastically lap up advice dispensed by the same uninformed bogan friends about the magic of negative gearing on residential property.]
http://thingsboganslike.com/2010/02/15/85-residential-property-investment/
Rod
[These are all the sorts of issues that people inevitably “blame” on whoever is in government. It doesn’t actually mean that they really think the opposition will be able to do a better job on them. More of a case of “you are in government and we don’t like it, even if there really is b*&^*& all you can do about it.”]
There is a lot of heat in these issues at the moment with windbag Sloppy throwing shite all about the place trying to gain some momentum.
Sorry Frank, It was an odd occasion where you were right!
I failed to go to the original sources. A gold sticker to you Frank!
[mfarnsworth Essential Report poll: LNP 51, ALP 49. Primaries: LNP 46, ALP 29, Greens 8, Others 7. http://auspol.info/as3bZC ]
blue_green@36
No government is going to set executive pay limits or re-regulate the economy.
Oppositions may seem to indicate they will, but if they become government, they will not.
Shareholders must control executive pay in a general sense, but there has been some talk of penalising the banks by requiring greater capital reserves in circumstances where bank executive pay is right out of wack. By international standards our bank CEO are not paid *excessively* atm anyway.
Affordability of housing – increasing the supply of land releases may help, but
significant costs are tied in connecting essential services. User pays as they
should. The government could ease the GST on new home construction but
the states would want to be reimbursed and tax payers in general would be
picking up the costs, via the amounts foregone.
Not enough regulation of banks – something will be done here but full on
re-regualtion would be counterproductive and just result in banks rationing
lending.
Energy costs are going up anyway. Increased coal costs, large upgrades
in capacity etc required plus whatever form the carbon tax takes will add
to these increases.
Dave 64
On executive pay limits.
Its been recently done across many OECD countries.
Dee
From where is that second quote in #54?
ALP primary down by another 2% looks bad IMHO and can be attributed to the AS issue I believe. Weather you like it or not boats will continue to hurt the Gillard govt.
I know some on here will just dismiss talk of AS affecting govt popularity as bunkum but I see that as the single biggest problem the govt has with regards to popularity. Skyrocketing electricity prices and the prospect of a GBNT on everything and an unscrupulous opposition and complient MSM who never miss an opportunity to remind us.
[blue_greenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:04 pm | PermalinkSorry Frank, It was an odd occasion where you were right!
I failed to go to the original sources. A gold sticker to you Frank!
mfarnsworth Essential Report poll: LNP 51, ALP 49. Primaries: LNP 46, ALP 29, Greens 8, Others 7. http://auspol.info/as3bZC
]
Well Farnsworth is wRONg 🙂
Dave
a proposal
[G20 board releases bold plan on executive pay Peter Martin
September 26, 2009
EXECUTIVE bonuses would be scaled back, reviewed yearly and unlinked from short-term share price movements under a bold plan presented to world leaders meeting in Pittsburgh.
Treasurer Wayne Swan backs the plan and said ahead of its release today that it displayed a ”steely determination” to stamp out pay packages that rewarded excessive risk-taking and did not reward long-term value creation. The 19-point plan was prepared by a Group of 20s’ Financial Stability Board, with input from Australia.
Specific Australian proposals will be released on Wednesday when Productivity Commissioners Allan Fels, Robert Fitzgerald and Gary Banks unveil the preliminary findings of their six-month review of executive salaries.
The Financial Stability Board’s proposals, which would apply only to the finance sector, would require at least 40 per cent of each executive’s bonus to be deferred over a number of years, rising to 60 per cent for the bonuses of the most senior executives.
The deferral period should be at least three years with at least half paid in the form of shares or share-like instruments rather than cash.
Where cash is paid it should be handed over gradually, with unpaid portions ”clawed back” when performance turns down.
No part of any bonus should be automatic except for new employees for whom an exception could be made in the first year.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/g20-board-releases-bold-plan-on-executive-pay-20090925-g6dc.html
Of the 2% that the ALP lost, 1% each went to the Libs and the Nats as seperate parties – wonder if the MDB and the refugees in Northam are in play ?
Richo reckons 2010 was “worst campaign in ALP history”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/08/3060351.htm
I agree. It was an appalling dud. Sack everyone involved I say!
Afternoon all,
What great news this prospective referendum is.
Finally a chance to have a constitution which recognises the full heritage of occupation of this continent by human beings, not just the proportionately miniscule period from 1788.
As for this:
[The promise to pursue constitutional recognition was part of the deal that Labor struck with the Greens after the August 21 election.]
Well that may well have been in the agreement, but it isn’t the whole picture, is it?
[Labor promised the referendum during the election campaign but it is not the first such pledge.]
That’s right, it was a promise made before the election.
I’m not sure what could possibly motivate anyone to spread this idea that it’s a cynical, politically motivated act when the Prime Minister clearly says:
[Ms Gillard says there is bipartisan support for the change in the Parliament.]
This is a cracker of an opportunity for our country, and I’m sure it’s one that everyone here will want to jump on board early.
Let’s make it happen!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/08/3060136.htm
From above
[Mr Howes says his book is an attack on Labor orthodoxy and he hopes it will promote party renewal.]
How is the continual self-promotion of a talentless machine-man who has not acheivements to his name ‘promoting party renewal’?
blue_green@65
Which OECD countries have actually done it ? If so what was done ?
Have seen much talk about deferring bonus money via share options over longer time frames etc but things seem to have gone very quite since the worst of the GFC.
In the US for example pay for bank execs is now back to pre GFC
levels in a range of cases.
Has the proposal above actually gone anywhere yet ?
[KenWyattMP KEN’S OFFICE: Ken will b on 6PR this afternoon at 4pm (AWST) to talk to Howard Sattler about the Indigenous preamble to the Constitution #fb ]
Good
Laocoon
There was also an article, of which I cannot find at the moment by one of the worlds leading economists who said that Australia’s negative gearing is the most generous in the world & he forecast impacts & fallout with housing affordability & associated problems coming from this. Will endeavour to find it.
[From where is that second quote in #54?]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-dumps-chance-to-fix-housing-20100503-u3oy.html?comments=114
Dave,
I am not sure of more recent accounts.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/executive-pay-curbs-go-global/story-e6frg90f-1111117811253
[blue_greenPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:14 pm | PermalinkKenWyattMP KEN’S OFFICE: Ken will b on 6PR this afternoon at 4pm (AWST) to talk to Howard Sattler about the Indigenous preamble to the Constitution #fb
Good
]
Somehow I predict Ken Wyatt’s appearance will fuel the usual rancid anti-aboriginal feeling which Herr Sattler Excels in 🙁
1 hour 5 mins ago
Graham Richardson
[“Labor ran the worst campaign in history. No doubt about that,” he said at the launch in a restaurant in Sydney’s Chinatown this morning.
“You didn’t read that in here. It is nonetheless a fact.]
“When Julia Gillard said this was the real Julia, no, this wasn’t a slip of the tongue. It was planned; it was thought to be clever. It wasn’t. It was just plain dumb.”
[Home Buyers grants have not made housing more affordable. Govt intervention has not helped in this area.]
Am I alone in thinking that the FHBG was more about getting people into mortgages rather than their first home?
Deblonay
Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 3:52 pm | Permalink
“Recently a legal man of my acquaintance told me of a remarkable performance in the court here in Melbourne,involving that slimy toad Landeryou.”
posting this kind of sleeze against respected ex Labor minister Landeryou , who via his site exposes Greens uneconamic and cynical popularism because you dont like th truth
William has on occasion quoted from his site , a site that does not mind critisising Labor or Liberals either where he thinks justify You got the ‘precous GN’ Pegasus virus
On first glance not a good poll but not unexpected. People are lazy and disinterested at the moment and have a quick look at the headlines, Hockey good, labor bad.
Second point which interests me is the greens vote. I really do believe it is not realistic and is too low. The question is, is it being “artifically ” soaked up into coalition 46% or labor 39% ? Even the last Newspoll had the greens iwo to three points higher. If the real figures are being soaked up in the labor vote, not good. If it is the coalition, for whatever reason, not so bad.
Just a couple of thoughts.
BG
I really doubt if anything to actually cap or limit amounts comes in. Very
much doubt that much has actually been implemented yet. If so it
would be in my estimation in continental Europe. The US & UK is
very doubtful imo.
As I said above, deferring payments over longer periods has been
done in various places but that is not limiting the total amounts
that can be paid. The more economies recover the less and less
will be heard about such. Sadly IMO.
[Cute & a bit cheeky given you’ve only just plucked up the courage to criticise your [
party.]
I’ve been critical of various aspects of Labor for years, as anyone can see from my comments here and elsewhere.
Dee
#79
Richo has same views as us
You dont advertise you’re changing tact , you just do it If you advertise why you is changing that bcomes MSN story , which it did become
Oh and Adam, I’ve previously asked you twice what your definition of a “hack” is, seeing as you throw the word about a fair bit, and you’ve refused to respond.
So I’ll ask you again. Define hack for me please.
[DoyleyPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:27 pm | PermalinkOn first glance not a good poll but not unexpected. People are lazy and disinterested at the moment and have a quick look at the headlines, Hockey good, labor bad.
Second point which interests me is the greens vote. I really do believe it is not realistic and is too low. The question is, is it being “artifically ” soaked up into coalition 46% or labor 39% ? Even the last Newspoll had the greens iwo to three points higher. If the real figures are being soaked up in the labor vote, not good. If it is the coalition, for whatever reason, not so bad.
Just a couple of thoughts.
]
I reckon a bit of both – Soft Labor back to ALP, Soft Liberal back to the Libs.
And I agree about the disinterested bit – people are all polled out. Especially as there was a long gap between the Election andf the decision of the Indies and the first 2 sessions of Parliament where frankly there wasn’t any major legislation being introduced.
[Am I alone in thinking that the FHBG was more about getting people into mortgages]
Probably more about getting votes
The earliest FHOS I can remember is back in the early 80s, where there was an explicit policy objective of getting residential construction increasing from the 82 recession. Why there would be a FHOS for just buying any residence is, to my mind, simply bad policy, just increasing residential prices
Can anyone point out examples of green supporters here criticising the greens
or have they just drank the Kool Aid ?
For the *good of the party* of course. 😀
Thanks for the link Dee
[posting this kind of sleeze against respected ex Labor minister Landeryou , who via his site exposes Greens uneconamic and cynical popularism because you dont like th truth ]
Andrew Landeryou is a former Minister’s son; he is not a former Minister.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-opposes-mps-joining-expert-panel-to-build-support-for-indigenous-referendum/story-fn59niix-1225949538603
Ron
[Dee
#79
Richo has same views as us
You dont advertise you’re changing tact , you just do it If you advertise why you is changing that bcomes MSN story , which it did become]
I think it took some credibility away from the only quality candidate for PM on offer.
Heard Laurie Oakes re-affirming his first opinions of Gillard’s potential to be a great leader this morning which was heart warming.
Admittedly, I was being a bit mischievious waving a red flag to a bull. 😉
[Mr Howes says his book is an attack on Labor orthodoxy and he hopes it will promote party renewal.]
What he means is hopefully it will promote more book sales for me. Controversy sells, right?
[ Of the 2% that the ALP lost, 1% each went to the Libs and the Nats as seperate parties – wonder if the MDB and the refugees in Northam are in play ? ]
If this means that Labor is even more on the nose far from the coast, then it’s not such a big deal. It’s just a ‘sink’ for anti-Labor sentiment. This is Coalition heartland after all, where the ALP vote is already low.
blue green , my arguement does not change that post was what i said , sleeze
BTW Andrew has had close deelings with Labor , still
I am not so stupid to realise that the last six to eight months could have been a lot better for labor. Some decisions regarding policy and tactics left me shaking my head but i really think it is now time to move on.
By all means have a solid, warts and all review as to where we go from here but I really wish people like Howe and Richardson would just pull their heads in. At the moment their public comments are not doing labor any good. By continuing to push the “Kevin is to blame ‘ line just gets the MSM up and running and does not let the government move on. Richardson is clearly backing Howes and I wonder which seat they will line him up for in 2013. Hopefully they will get him to stand for the president of Fiji !
#
Dee
Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:38 pm | Permalink
Ron
Dee
#79
‘ Richo has same views as us
You dont advertise you’re changing tact , you just do it If you advertise why you is changing that bcomes MSN story , which it did become’
“I think it took some credibility away from the only quality candidate for PM on offer.
Heard Laurie Oakes re-affirming his first opinions of Gillard’s potential to be a great leader this morning which was heart warming.
Admittedly, I was being a bit mischievious waving a red flag to a bull. 😉 ”
Dee , i would never think you’d be mischevious ,
except in a caring compasionate way
#
Confessions @ 86,
Someone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.
[Can anyone point out examples of green supporters here criticising the greens
or have they just drank the Kool Aid ?]
That’s my point. People who throw around the word ‘hack’ as an insult to those who vote for either of the two major parties seem incapable of applying the term to Greens voters.