Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  3. [When your opponent is making an idiot of himself, give him the spotlight]

    Enough rope indeed.

    Somewhat off topic, but related to IR laws, I’ve just finished listening to a lecture titled “Class Wars” by noted US academic Noam Chomsky. It’s fascinating and frightening at the same time.

    It’s on You-Tube (audio only)

    Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbtpNblpGh0

    Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSZZGD3VppY

    Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNfJcKfBjvQ

    Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7woinY405M

    Part 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=229OOqwZqXc

    Part 6: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahSvMndjLZA

    I’d be interested in what otherr PB’ers think of it.

  5. More news from the state of incompetence (front page AFR)
    [The NSW government is being forced back into coal mining eight years after selling off its mines…

    coal supply has been a big issue for bidders because the power stations’ long-term contracts begin rolling off from next year and the thriving export market means coal prices are expected to surge.

    The reluctant move back into coal mining follows a breakdown in negotiations with Whitehaven Coal…the idea was for Whitehaven to sell the coal at cost to the state-owned generators…]
    “at cost”!! ROFL

  6. @Lizzie,

    Yes, my understanding as well, however, it is extremely difficult to get your message out when the MSM have pre-selected the chosen candidate. They choose what messages get put out there.

    When most of the main media outlets have chosen against you, then not only is your message not heard, but the messages against you become extreme. The people who controlled this election were the MSM editors and the people who controlled them.

    If there is an even split – no problem, but this election is the first in my memory, that the MSM has shown such a vicious and unrepentant bias.

    Given the undisputed power of the press, I would like strict guidelines should be issued to keep the reporting accountable to the facts, if not every day, then at least during elections, times of national crisis.

    And I think a review of cross-media ownership laws is long overdue.

  7. Opposition call for a mini budget to tackle the dollars rise in value.

    [
    THE Coalition has called on the government to hold a mini-budget before Christmas to combat inflationary pressures in the economy and bring down the value of the dollar.

    Opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb said while some pressures were outside the government’s control, it was contributing to the higher dollar through a lack of “sensible fiscal policy”.

    “The government should urgently consider a mini-budget to rein in the reckless spending which is attributing to higher interest rates and therefore a higher dollar,” Mr Robb told The Australian Online.

    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-calls-for-mini-budget-to-fight-inflationary-pressures-and-bring-down-dollar/story-fn59niix-1225937064592

  8. [It wasn’t that the questions weren’t asked, at least by some journos trying to get at the truth (Tingle springs to mind as one of the most conscientious at this), but that their editors would not run the story. All we got – including most egregiously from the ABC News dept. – was “he-said/she-said”. No attempt to put the costings into context was ever taken, except by Tingle, Gittins and Colebatch in little-noticed articles back in August. Their colleagues only had to wander over to their offices to get the rundown in full as to why the costings were dodgy and why they weren’t properly audited. Yet they did not do that.

    That was the true story of the media’s incompetence (and I think, partisanship) during the election.]

    BB – you made some good points in posts today but this one, to me, seems the most important. I feel so sorry for the good journalists who have to wear the incompetence of the others, but mostly, the lesson is that a democracy should not have 70% of its media in the thrall of one man.

    I am supporting Fairfax more than ever now because they are at least giving us a bit of balance and most of their journos are standouts in a diminishingly ethical profession.

  9. Guthrie vs Murdoch in The Age.
    I missed the Sunday edition of Age or SMH. Could anyone tell me if there were further revelations about editorial influence?

  10. blue_green@146

    Dave,

    Nice lot of denial. You are still holding the view that “Abbott is crap, ergo the ALP are good”.

    The logic fails. The two factors are independent.

    I still live in hope that Gillard ‘campaigned dumb but will govern smart”. The signs are mildy positive but overall it is too early to tell.

    b-g – Nice lot of denial there yourself. You are still just trying the *look over there stunt*, as usual. It won’t work.

    But it makes no diference, abbott is coming apart and the libs are showing incompetence all over the place and infighting.

    Tis a Grand thing to behold 🙂

    And the comments on the gait of politicians is particularly unbecoming.

    But it was fine Gillard coped flack during the election about the size of her earlobes. Get real bg – you dish it out and carryon like a spoilt brat when you get some back – like most repubs or conservatives.

  11. BUSHFIRE – so-called “bottlenecks” is the latest (and probably) the most pissweak excuses for dumping Rudd, after all the others, polls, personal dislike in caucus, etc etc.

    In my experience, smart people often do the stupidest things. This seems like a classic case. Or, in other words, sometimes there is no explanation, and we shouldn’t dignify events with one.

  12. Ron said:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-23/#comment-654728
    [Both Pegasus and Diogenes hav tried to deceive this Site claiming Greens Motion on
    Mr Lieu was innocent and ONLY said “should be released immediately.”]

    Okay, Ron. You have overstepped the line. I usually do not bother to respond to your general nastiness, bullying and distortions but I see you are continuing to impugn my motives and character. I am not angry or upset about your comments as they are typical for you but I will quietly defend myself if I have to in the face of such personal abuse.

    Here is a summary of our exchange:

    My original post that was a response to a post by Diogenes:
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-10/#comment-654076

    In this post I simply provided a quote from an Age article and its link so interested people could read it in its entirety.

    Before reading this article I had no knowledge of the Greens Party motion calling for Liu Xiaobo’s release from prison.

    Ron then responded in his typical inimical style with: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-10/#comment-654087

    At this point I went looking for the Greens Party motion, (as anyone else could have done) and posted the link for it along with two other links so that readers could make a judgement for themselves whether the motion “included the greatest insult to the Chinese government” as alleged by Ron. What he meant by this was anyone’s guess since he did not provide an explanation or interpretation of his opinion.

    My post: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-16/#comment-654379

    That was going to be my last word on the matter. Unfortunately Ron has continued his diatribe at:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-16/#comment-654397

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-23/#comment-654718

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-23/#comment-654728

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/10/08/morgan-55-5-44-5-to-labor-2/comment-page-23/#comment-654748

    There was no deceit on my behalf. I posted links to all sources (which is my usual practice) so people could follow up for themselves what had occurred or been said.

  13. Dave, Dave, Dave, Dave…

    [b-g – Nice lot of denial there yourself. You are still just trying the *look over there stunt*, as usual. It won’t work.

    But it makes no diference, abbott is coming apart and the libs are showing incompetence all over the place and infighting.]

    I have never said Abbott is not coming apart (was he ever together?). However, I have consistently argued that for Labor, just aiming to be better than Abbott is dismal.

    Just because Abbott is Abbott doesn not mean that Gillard’s government is necessarily good. What part of the logic don’t you understand?

  14. [this election is the first in my memory, that the MSM has shown such a vicious and unrepentant bias]

    Too right, Space Kidette. If Labor had had anything like a level playing field in the media they would have enjoyed an increased majority and Abbott finished and utterly discredited.

  15. [But it was fine Gillard coped flack during the election about the size of her earlobes. Get real bg – you dish it out and carryon like a spoilt brat when you get some back ]

    Did Gillard get picked on for her big earlobes? I neither noticed the criciticism; or the earlobes.

    I wouldn’t think that my contributions here are either ‘dishing it out’ or ‘carrying on like a spoilt brat’ but I open the floor to further criticisms. :LOL:

  16. [ “The government should urgently consider a mini-budget to rein in the reckless spending which is attributing to higher interest rates and therefore a higher dollar,” Mr Robb told The Australian Online. ]

    Did Robb really say reckless spending was “attributing” to higher interest rates? Is he even more of a dork than I thought, or did the OO misreport him? Surely our nation’s “journal of record” wouldn’t make such a dumb mistake?

  17. b-g went –

    I have never said Abbott is not coming apart (was he ever together?). However, I have consistently argued that for Labor, just aiming to be better than Abbott is dismal.

    Just because Abbott is Abbott doesn not mean that Gillard’s government is necessarily good. What part of the logic don’t you understand?

    There are ALWAYS heaps of people eager to shout labors shortcomings. Not so the libs.

    By world standards the rudd government did well ie GFC etc etc. Gillard has fashioned a government in difficult circumstances and appears off to a *workman like* start.

    As much as it obviously grates you, those are the facts. Suck it up princess – lots more coming your way, sweetie 🙂

  18. If Peter Martin writes a story you can bet your bottom dollar that it isn’t a beatup so Hockey and Robb need to take a good look at what they are saying.

    I reckon both of them have lost a lot of credibility on this issue. Neither deserves to be Treasurer or Finance Minister. No wonder Robb is going hard on the currency issue – he needs cover.

  19. As for the excuses for dumping Rudd, I think I am probably one of the few who have totally ignored the for/against/why Labor dumped Rudd.

    I have longed believed that good leaders have excellent deputies and that they work co-operatively, and compensate for the skills the other has to offer, like two parts of one great big whole.

    So, either or, I am not fussed. I think they are both exceptional leaders. After years in government positions and watching the internal machinations, I found that the majority of political leaders were shaped by their own personal ambition and not much interested in the greater good of the Australian population in general.

    I think that for both of these leaders, they do have a natural concern for the greater good.

    I am not too critical of what occurred during the Rudd era because, he successfully steered us through the worlds worst economic crisis in seventy years and he would have had to be totally pre-occupied with sorting through that – and fast. It is totally understandable that some things slipped through the cracks – but nothing that can’t be fixed.

    All I know is that as someone who has worked in government finance, I thank god, that he was steering the ship at the time.

  21. blue_green@165

    But it was fine Gillard coped flack during the election about the size of her earlobes. Get real bg – you dish it out and carryon like a spoilt brat when you get some back

    Did Gillard get picked on for her big earlobes? I neither noticed the criciticism; or the earlobes.

    I wouldn’t think that my contributions here are either ‘dishing it out’ or ‘carrying on like a spoilt brat’ but I open the floor to further criticisms. :LOL:

    Thats the selective conservative memory at work again. Situation normal.

  23. I ventured onto the Yahoo site and the comments on Abbott’s low bastardy jibe on JG, now this is usually a very right wing site, I think, but I would say , just glancing through the anti Abbott comments are far in abundance to pro Abbott, is there a turning??

  24. Dave

    I am now convinced that although you show intelligence in some of your posts, you reveal your immaturity in your expressions.
    I particularly note your use of “xx went” when referring to past posters. This is not good grammar. People do not “go” or ” went” when they speak.
    I would not draw attention to this normally, but you are very annoying, not to say rude, in your childish use of language.

  27. SPACE KADET – Basically, I don’t think there will be much difference between Rudd and Gillard if the independents pull her to the left, as appears to be the case.

    But you can’t tell me that getting rid of Rudd (52 – 48 in the last poll before he was deposed) wasn’t an electoral disaster.

    Internal labor seems to have gone very quiet on that issue. Now, it’s all “bottlenecks” with an admixture of “personal deficiencies” (as if Govts don’t have bottlenecks – particularly reformist ones – and PMs aren’t egomaniacs)

  28. [some of them are growing rice! This is dumb and should not be permitted in an area which would normally be open scrub or desert.]
    Yep!
    Same goes for cotton which also is reliant on heavy chemical use.
    When the Japs did aerial surveying for hemp growing there was an enormous outcry from cotton farmers. So set in their ways they cannot grasp an opportunity when it confronts them.

  29. lizzie@174

    Dave

    I am now convinced that although you show intelligence in some of your posts, you reveal your immaturity in your expressions.
    I particularly note your use of “xx went” when referring to past posters. This is not good grammar. People do not “go” or ” went” when they speak.
    I would not draw attention to this normally, but you are very annoying, not to say rude, in your childish use of language.

    Lizzy, I picked that up from Possum – he uses it all the time. Had no inkling that it would be taken as offensive. But there you go.

    I am suitably chastised and will work out a variation 🙂

  30. @Rosa,

    I agree that it was an electoral disaster. I just don’t think it deserved the airspace it got and subseqently the role it played in the election itself.

  31. Dave,

    Go hard, go often against the Greens coterie who think they own PB. Grammar has never been a criteria for posting, Lizzie. So, just learn to accept alternative views.

  33. Space Kiddette

    Thanks for your thoughts on Rudd from an insiders perspective. I think Rudd throroughly deserves the credit for making timely and wise decisions on the stimulus. I don’t think that however excuses him from failing to allow his government and his ministers to govern effectively. This is all the more surprising given the depth of talent amongst the Labor team. Think of the junior Ministers at the time, twiddling their thumbs- Combet, Shorten, McKew, Kelly, Gray. If everyone had been allowed to do their job then their would have been no collapse of public confidence.

  34. Dave

    That was a very sweet prevarication, but the rude bit was the piece of your post to blue_green which I prefer not to quote. I think it may come from the Simpsons, perhaps, and refers to princess.

  38. More from the Hockey and Robb comedy double act

    [
    But Mr Hockey and the opposition’s finance spokesman Andrew Robb have refuted suggestions they deliberately misled voters.

    “This is a semantic argument about the definition and use of the word audit,” they said in a statement.

    “The coalition’s costings were subjected to an unprecedented level of scrutiny for any opposition.”

    All the costings, including the assumptions behind them, were thoroughly examined by WHK Howarth, which confirmed “costed commitments and savings have been accurately prepared in all material aspects”.

    “We absolutely stand by the veracity of our costings,” Mr Hockey and Mr Robb said.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/hockey-robb-deny-misleading-voters-over-costings/story-fn3dxity-1225937080089

  39. [0

    And won’t that be great for democracy in NSW? No opposition.]

    It won’t be 0 but it will be reduced to cricket team proportions. The Greens will get two or three seats likewise. Labor will be left with some in Newcastle, Wollongong and the housing commission belt of Sydney.

    It will be an unwieldy govt for O’Farrell to handle. He will need to get everyone to work with a clear direction right away.

  40. lizzie@184

    Dave

    That was a very sweet prevarication, but the rude bit was the piece of your post to blue_green which I prefer not to quote. I think it may come from the Simpsons, perhaps, and refers to princess.

    So lizzie – you change arguement hey ? Thats fine, too bad then.

    Don’t read my posts if they upset you. I don’t really give a rats. 🙂

  41. Did Gillard get picked on for her big earlobes?

    Yes. The earlobe “story” became The Story, with the speech she made totally ignored. It got to the stage where there were stories written about the earlobe story, seemingly to try to establish how “boring” the election was, and how unimportant policy discussion (i.e. their real job) was to the journalists concerned.

    “If Julia’s earlobes were the story of the day then how trivial was the rest of the campaign?” was the line. It was a sniggering festival, from start to end. That Costingsgate wasn’t reported and analysed anywhere near as much as Julia’s earlobes was a damnation upon the media.

    The thing about Costingsgate was that there wasn’t one person (at least on this blog) to whom any of Windsor’s and Oakeshotte’s revelations after their Treasury briefing were anything new. I don’t mean just a plenary distrust of anything the Coalition said. I mean, we knew about the black hole beforehand, down to just about the finest detail, but it was not reported during the campaign. Just earlobes, Tone on a bike, Latham drinking coffee, Oakes putting out non sequiter stories about “leaks”, phoney guff about how a “serious criminal offence” had been committed in leaking their spurious “costings” (all of which was dismissed before the election by the AFP) and Tea Party bullshit on whether Abbott was “a man of the people” and “Prime Ministerial” at the Rooty Hill meeting.. As to whether there really was a black hole in Opposition costings, and to whether they were really the greatest set of audited costings by any Opposition in the history of Federation (as both Robb and Hockey claimed) was hardly even commented on.

    The media invented a “boring” election so they could show us how “adult” they were by being bored with it all. It was as good an excuse as any NOT to report on the true issues and delve deeply into what was plainly a rort in the form of “costings”.

    If Colebatch, Tingle and Gittins could go through the figures – dodgy right from the start, just after the Budget reply speech when the Coalition was claiming “$47 billion” in non-existent savings by counting investment in the NBN asset as expenditure, and adding to one column, but not subtracting from the other – and get them right, why couldn’t the self-styled political gurus do the same? No, they preferred to waffle on about how “boring” things were, and “circuses”, with cliched phrases like “let the battle begin” and so on. They could have written their articles sitting on the toilet, they were so lightweight and content-free.

    They got what they wished for – a record number of informal votes and a hung parliament… until Windsor, Oakeshotte and Katter did their job for them and went through the costings themselves (with the help of Treasury). Suddenly cries of, “I’m shocked, SHOCKED to discover that there’s a black hole in Coalition figures!” was shouted from the rooftops by the same journos who studiously ignored exactly the same evidence before the election, in favour of Julia’s earlobes, and comments on the comments on Julia’s earlobes.

    God rot ’em all.

  43. [It will be an unwieldy govt for O’Farrell to handle. He will need to get everyone to work with a clear direction right away.]
    0 or 11 the fact remains the new opposition will be in effective. Weak opposition, weak government. Good luck up there.

  44. Laocoon@136. I thought that might be the case – so nobody to look into it except the media. As we all know, if it had been Labor’s costings debacle we would never hear the end of it but will Hockey and Robb wear this for longer than a few minutes today.

    Swannie can make fun of it in QT but even that wouldn’t be shown on telly. We’d just get Abbott saying that the big, bad Guvmint is saying nasty things about his Party.

  46. [“This is a semantic argument about the definition and use of the word audit,” they said in a statement.]
    Why don’t we see what the Oxford English Dictionary says:
    [audit -n. an official examination of accounts]
    That’s it. Where is the argument exactly, Laurel and Hardy?

  48. Greensborough Growler@181

    Dave,

    Go hard, go often against the Greens coterie who think they own PB. Grammar has never been a criteria for posting, Lizzie. So, just learn to accept alternative views.

    Thanks GG.

    I used to fart in church when I was a kid too – got me in heaps of trouble 🙂

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