The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 44 per cent (up 3.5 per cent) for Labor, 38.5 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 12 per cent (down 1 per cent) for the Greens. Morgan has wisely resumed using preference flows from the previous election rather than respondent-allocated preferences for its headline figure, and is now using the results from the 2010 rather than the 2007 election, not that it makes any measurable difference.
[Someone just said that the RBA is independent of the govt so how can Swan or Cossie take credit or blame for what the RBA does?]
The RBA didnt own the gold,the GVT did
the RBA was the broker
David
I do hope Rudd succeeds as FA Minister. His success will be ours too. If you know what I mean?
Diogs @ 1242, if you went to the bank and withdrew $100 to back St Kilda in the grand final replay, would you blame your bank?
he Finnigans
Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
‘ i just luv your dumb Q’s ‘
“Amigo Ronnie , that is our Diog ”
he just keeps on giving , and giving , with gay abandons
there must be a patent rule that he can continue so giving
RBA is responsible for monetary policy – ie interest rates.
Federal Government is responsible for fiscal policy – spending, duties, levies etc.
The government have to set fiscal policy so that it complements monetary policy – notwithstanding that within the economical cycle there will be instances where policy crossover settings occur at staggered timings.
eg there was still a need for loose fiscal policy (stimulus)while RBA was raising interest rates recently.
nappin
[I like that – crony capitalism.]
I love that term. Beautiful encapsulation. So third world, like its public infrastructure
It has been an interesting discussion this evening.
Nite all. Hope everyone had a good weekend!
[Am I the only one who thinks it too bizarre that our economy is the envy of the western world, low unemployment, low interest rates, no recession, projected strong growth and the ALP almost lost the election around the issue of- the economy??]
Nope! You are not the only one. Every PBer has been lamenting the stupidity of the situation.
Problem here in Australia is that no-one was really affected by the GFC. That’s how good a job the government made of it. Perhaps too good. There are many who believe we were never at risk of the GFC. No pain, no idea of how lucky we are.
Gus
[The RBA didnt own the gold,the GVT did
the RBA was the broker]
Fair enough.
[How does a country devalue its currency?]
It’s very easy … just make a mess of the economy:
– increase government spending to unsustainable levels & reduce taxes at the same time
– appoint people to the reserve bank who believe in keeping interest rates artificially low
– create a political system which often results in political gridlock & encourages the rise of populist & extremist forces
– deregulate the financial sector so that there are few controls on irresponsible behaviour
Janet Tavakoli said it Laocoon.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/janet-tavakoli-biggest-fraud-history-capital-markets
(thanks dave)
With you all the way Victoria, he will do us proud am sure of it. A wonderful Labor man and a wonderful Australian.
USA is in the danger of going Japan’s way of two decades of political leadership paralysis and economic and social stagnation.
vik
Ahh the Bush years!
nappin/dave
Yes, I couldnt believe the equity market rallied on Friday on the payrolls and BoA announcement. Earnings season will be interesting (though with lots of non-US earnings, USD could be beneficial for a lot of the multinationals)
Andrew and Dee,
The people should be reminded that the bookmakers had Australia entering into a recession as a strong short priced favourite.
Many economists, including those at Access Economics, predicted that Australia would have a recession and many predicted unemployment to reach 8%.
Sure, there was a cost, that the Liberals call “waste” but the benefits by far outweighed the costs.
The ASX would be trading over 200 points lower if we had a recession. Super funds are richer because of the Rudd stimulus.
Finns
FWIW, I dont think the US will go down the Japan route; the societies and cultures, let alone the economies, are just so different. I think the US will “explode”, somehow, rather than fester for 20 years.
Access Economics need to have a good hard look at themselves and take one game at a time Centre.
Vik
you describe US sytem , with either Democrats or Republicons in charge
“crony capitalism’ , good one Nappin
is that th one where you dont hav regulation , capitalism free for all bno rules wealthiest and slyiest servive
and also keep trading ever less wothless financial pieces of paper that used to be at start a persons home
Laocoon – in a sense the US is exploding now. The Tea Party is an example – just happens to be friendly fire.
That’s the one Ron
[I have no idea why Labor has not … highlighted their achievements. THey have learnt nothing from their near-death election experience, it seems]
A lot of people are still hurting, especially in QLD, so crowing too much about economic achievements can also rub people up the wrong way.
The most devastating ALP ad of the 2007 election, after all, was the one featuring the grinning Howard & his statement about “working families in Australia never being better off”.
And if US has not enuf econamic problems , mid terms will be a Republicon big win and with it that silly Reganomics , tax cuts and supply side theorys Deary deary more US Debt
Centre
[Sure, there was a cost, that the Liberals call “waste” but the benefits by far outweighed the costs.]
But we are viewing it through the eyes of reality. The Coalition have sold this fantasy that we are sinking in debt. Worse still, they have succeeded in persuading voters that we were never in danger of a GFC. So, their narrative is the money was squandered for nothing. We know that is bullshit, but unfortunately, the ones who make the difference electorally bought the whole sorry tale.
The danger is the Coalition’s success at selling the negative. The ALP are hopeless at selling its positives. Frustrating!
Well, I’m going to ping off & continue searching for this damn Neil Young song that has thus far proved elusive.
Night all! 🙂
well, time for me to start dreaming of novel ways to still further increase my capital tax losses in the coming week’s trading! Night – good stimulating thoughts
[The ALP are hopeless at selling its positives]
I agree Dee, it like Labor 17% record high interest rates all over again.
Now a tip for all you Bears out there. I am going to declare on the record that the ASX200 closes at 5075 at the end of the year. 😉
*nightall*
Let it not be but said that i not lavish , tho but ocasional some Cultures here in cibers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG48Ftsr3OI
A good way to end the evening Ron.
[ How does a country devalue its currency? ]
By printing more of it i.e. “quantitative easing”, The US is in a 15 year hole and neither side will be able to turn it around without a whole lot more pain IMHO.
Oh dear, how does Hockey get out of this one. Telling porkies.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/hockeys-audit-claims-appear-false-20101010-16e0k.html
The Rabbott sure seems to be p***ed-off … 🙂
http://www.theage.com.au/national/pm-accused-of-stooping-to-bastardry-20101010-16e01.html
Anyway, here’s an interesting paragraph from the article:
[During a day of briefings and inspections, Mr Abbott witnessed a live-firing demonstration by troops, light armoured vehicles and helicopters. He said later that ”one of the reasons why they turned on that firepower demonstration was to make crystal clear that there is an abundance of firepower available to our forces”, contradicting opposition suggestions that the troops needed more.]
Meanwhile over at the OO:
[ aus_politics Australian Politics
It’s need that matters on population: Burke: SUSTAINABLE Population Minister Tony Burke has rejected a union leade… http://bit.ly/9lbiMW
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
aus_politics Australian Politics
Cuts spark fears for food security: AUSTRALIA’S capacity to feed itself is under threat http://bit.ly/cOaUwP
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
aus_politics Australian Politics
Count me out of PM contest, says Swan: WAYNE Swan once dreamed of becoming Australia’s prime minister. http://bit.ly/cD6vBA
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
aus_politics Australian Politics
Arrivals push centre past limit: THE arrival of four asylum boats in 48 hours has pushed numbers in the Christmas … http://bit.ly/9CPssk
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
aus_politics Australian Politics
Abbott takes aim at PM over Afghan trip: TONY Abbott says he told Julia Gillard at a meeting on September 22 that … http://bit.ly/atTdh8
3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]
Abbott really dishes it up to Julia here.
[TONY Abbott has accused Julia Gillard of “low bastardry” in disclosing that he had declined her offer to travel to Afghanistan together to visit Australian troops.
At the end of a full-day visit to the forces at the coalition base in Tarin Kowt on Saturday, Mr Abbott said he personally told the Prime Minister weeks earlier that he planned to visit separately.
“So Gillard’s office were briefing [reporters] last Monday that I’d somehow dudded the troops by not visiting,” Mr Abbott said at the weekend.
“I regard it as an act of low bastardry given what Gillard knew based on the conversation I’d had with her personally,” he said.
“My thinking was, once it became apparent what was going on, when it comes to Machiavellian bastardry, she’s up there with the best of them. ]
But comes a cropper right here. This story still has a bit to run yet I feel. I can’t imagine Julia Gillard letting him get away with this sort of character assassination.
[However, the reporter who broke the story of Ms Gillard’s offer to Mr Abbott said that the disclosure did not come from the Prime Minister or her office.
“I did not learn about it from the government,” The Sydney Morning Herald’s Phillip Coorey said yesterday, implying that Mr Abbott was making a serious charge against Ms Gillard based on a misunderstanding. ]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/pm-accused-of-stooping-to-bastardry-20101010-16e01.html
We are a traditonally a highly trade currency, and also we are one of the countries with the highest interest rates in the world.
The combination of being seen as ‘safe’ and the arbitrage benefits of higher interest than the rest of the developed world has created a perfect storm of currency appreciation.
Has very little if nothing to do with the relative strength of our economy compared to others (developed).
Very much to do with currency speculators being used to the currency and the interest rates her and there future highs.
There is not inherent strength in the valuation. It is all speculative and temporary.
Ther is no long term aspect of the currency strength.
As quickly as it goes upn ut will go down.
Commodity crash, property crash any number of things will bring things back to their long term average of 70c per $US. It will come back, might take a year or two but it will happen.
Get on $US gold, I’m expecting it to continue to rise for a couple of years then stagnate, if you buy your gold from Aus in Us dollars and then Aus$ devalues, then could be very good returns.
I’m confused. According to Matthew Franklin in The Australian, Gillard has “countered (Abbott’s) accusation of political bastardry by saying she revealed her rival’s rejection of her invitation simply to answer questions posed by reporters”. Franklin nonetheless considers her action in doing so “cheap-shot politics”, “low-rent, gotcha politics and undergraduate spin” and “the pursuit of spin over substance”, by a person who “ought to know better”.
But in the SMH, Peter Hartcher says Abbott was “mistaken” to assert that “Gillard’s office was briefing last Monday that I’d somehow dudded the troops by not visiting”: “The reporter who disclosed the fact that Abbott had turned down the Gillard offer, the Herald’s Phillip Coorey, says the information did not come from the government.”
[William BowePosted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 2:10 am | PermalinkI’m confused. According to Matthew Franklin in The Australian, Gillard has “countered (Abbott’s) accusation of political bastardry by saying she revealed her rival’s rejection of her invitation simply to answer questions posed by reporters”. Franklin nonetheless considers her action in doing so “cheap-shot politics”, “low-rent, gotcha politics and undergraduate spin” and “the pursuit of spin over substance”, by a person who “ought to know better”.
But in the SMH, Peter Hartcher says Abbott was “mistaken” to assert that “Gillard’s office was briefing last Monday that I’d somehow dudded the troops by not visiting”: “The reporter who disclosed the fact that Abbott had turned down the Gillard offer, the Herald’s Phillip Coorey, says the information did not come from the government.”
]
But which story will get the run on Their ABC ?? 🙂
New thread.