The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 44 per cent (up 3.5 per cent) for Labor, 38.5 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 12 per cent (down 1 per cent) for the Greens. Morgan has wisely resumed using preference flows from the previous election rather than respondent-allocated preferences for its headline figure, and is now using the results from the 2010 rather than the 2007 election, not that it makes any measurable difference.
Oh dear- the exercises must be working Tone
I wonder how this’ll be reported in the Oz ?
[I wonder how this’ll be reported in the Oz ?]
It won’t be.
[I wonder how this’ll be reported in the Oz ?]
vik
I wonder IF this’ll be reported in the Oz ?
The Widening ?
Is it alright to carry on from last thread? just wanted to make a quick comment.
@Doyley #3638 from last thread
My kids loved the horrible histories books, cartoon form and all the gruesome and bizarre happenings drew them in. We have had some great discussions since then. As with the discussions today, what constitutes fact, what is admissible as evidence etc. @jenauthor I have enjoyed our discussion this afternoon. I will see if I track down those writings, it is good to be sent back to primary sources.
Gee I enjoy PB, so many views, so many topics, and usually in good will.
just typed a long request and missed the cut off o well’
being a southern person can some one explain the water problem.
if this policy is not inacted would this mean in the long run there would be no water or less for irrigation.
I heard it discussed on the way home and it was said it should of been done some 10/15 years ago but no one would bite the bullet trust us to get it.
But surley if it is the case that there would be no water or litte something must be done.
off out now some one may like to explain it to me
[I wonder how this’ll be reported in the Oz ?]
Vik, they’ll conveniently not notice it. The fact that it is a face-to-face means it is probably more like 52/48 — but either way, Julia’s post election strategy of behaving like a mature adult is reaping rewards.
Suck it up Tone — you blew it!
v
It won’t be, I suspect.
BK, a couple of years we went to South American to do some archeological digging for Diog.
There was a couple for San Diego, USA, the type that always whinges about third world countries and USA is the greatest. He proudly proclaimed to the Group that there is no poverty in the US of A.
We all fell off our chair and choked on the very tender Argentina beef steak.
The Finnigans
Posted Friday, October 8, 2010 at 5:42 pm | Permalink
i just luv USA land of free enterprise and no govt interventons , but oh but its ok when suits
‘Amigo Ronnie, very soon, it will be home of graves and land of the fleas’
Amigo Finns , if USA adds annoy flys to fleas , then diog will hav cousins , then mix in a pot of loon tea baggers to th kettle stewer
Heard an interesting interview from the 7.30 Report in 2006 where Kerry O’Brien was talking to Paul Keating about how they could get back into power.
Keating was saying that he and Bob Hawke created a new constituency for Labor in the 80’s and 90’s which was the younger generation who were entrepreneurs in the service economy and the reason that they lost the four elections from 1996 to 2004 was because they had returned to the traditional base and ignored this segment which had largely gone to the Coalition.
He said the traditional base vote for Labor is 38% and for the Coalition it’s 43% and that if Labor wants to win elections, it needs to declare itself the party of wealth creation and communicate with this newer constituency.
It’s interesting to see that in this poll Labor is 43% and the Coalition are on 38.5%.
And this poll was done before Tone’s Afghan gaffe. I wonder whether the pollsters will give that little story time to ‘die a death’ before asking the question?
The predictability of the Ruperts is a given. Hilarious campaign in the telly today Premier YOu have the power……Do Something Now!!
OR ELSE….or else what? we’ll bag you as hard as we can every day till the election
but you will anyway…..so…
[BK, a couple of years we went to South American to do some archeological digging for Diog.
There was a couple for San Diego, USA, the type that always whinges about third world countries and USA is the greatest. He proudly proclaimed to the Group that there is no poverty in the US of A.
We all fell off our chair and choked on the very tender Argentina beef steak.]
Finns
I have been to the USA on several occasions on business – twice with Mrs BK – and had the opportunity to meet with many families. They have no idea about anything beyond the godd old US of A and display remarkable ignorance on world events.
As for poverty, you don’t have to venture far within any city to see the big divide.
godd = good
Another Freudian slip. I forgot to mention they are overtly religious.
Argh! did a big response & got wiped:
[Doyley
Posted Friday, October 8, 2010 at 5:40 pm | Permalink
Wiggins @3613,
thanks for that. A couple of questions
How do you get young people into history if not making it attractive ?
If you do make it attractive does that leave a possibility that what you call academic history will be lost and the flowery will take over from the fact? Fast food history as opposed to home cooked history.
]
There is room for both, and there are popular history authors doing great things – if you’re in to the Romans at all, Tom Holland’s Rubicon makes the end of the republic an edge-of-your-seat experience. However, things like that tv series Rome stuffs pretendy things in, and the film Gladiator was all made up – why bother? The reality is just so much better.
There needs to be an awareness that there is not One True History, which I think the whole Australian history debate makes very clear, but it also needs to be shown how this is a good thing. Or at least interesting.
Too often (to be slightly on topic, even in politics) we want one clear narrative, and overlook that lots of little ones can be more fun. Some of the subaltern (o dear, sorry) history things, looking at women’s or peasant’s lives during (say) the middle ages, offer a wider and closer perspective than remembering that king John was actually quite a good ruler sometimes even though most people don’t realise it.
Jenauthor,
just quickly on your last post in the previous thread.
A love of reading especially historical fiction was what got me interested in history at a young age. It encouraged me to explore “real” history and I spent a large part of my spare time at the library and bookshops seeking the truth, so to speak.
I did a small bit at Uni and history has been a passion for me over the years.
So I thank you as a member of the historical fiction fraternity for being the “bait” that got me involved. Hopefully many other people, young and old, will get hooked and explore history as a natural progression.
I really believe that academic and popular history need to survive together to encourage people to explore their past.
Whats the saying, ” how do you know where you are going if you don’t know where you have been ? “
Wiggins,
I posted just before reading your latest post. Thanks for that. I agree with you 100%
my say
Successive state governments of various stripes have over-allocated water.
Essentially this means that if the long term average of water inflows was 100%, they allocated to irrigators something like (say) 120%. But, these governments did not take into account any provision for environmental flows which most scientists say should be roughly 30% of long-term average inflows. This means that the over-allocation was something like 50% of the long-term average inflows. By the time the MDBA finished with it, it is coming out as something like 30%-40% over-allocation.
The over allocation is virtually destroying the rivers.
This over-allocation cost the farmers virtually nothing to get. So the taxpayers will pay a motza to buy back an over-allocation that cost the farmers virtually nothing. You will never hear Barnaby Joyce say this. But he knows it is true.
Meanwhile, towns and regional centres were built around irrigation. It brings fabulous local and regional wealth. (The main reason is that it takes large amounts of risk out of investing in agriculture, and it enables rates of return for investment not available to broad acre farming). Depending on the agricultural type, regional infrastructure has been built around irrigation. A rice mill would be an example. If sufficient rice farmers have their licences purchased by the Government, there will insufficient through put to maintain the mill as a viable concern.
So, while the real cut in irrigation will not be around 50% (because the water has never been there), there will nevertheless be substantial real cuts in irrigation water. This will not be evenly distributed across all areas. Some towns will wither and others will die. Maintaining infrastructure of certain kinds will become uneconomical. Getting the rivers right will involve major, major, social and economic disruption.
MSM warnings of civil unrest are shit stirring of the most irresponsible kind. But the issues at local and regional levels will be major.
[So I thank you as a member of the historical fiction fraternity for being the “bait” that got me involved. Hopefully many other people, young and old, will get hooked and explore history as a natural progression.]
Cheers!
If and when my next book — loosely based on Tuthmosis III, the “Napoleon of Egypt” is published (under a pseudonym so I can maintain my anonymity 😆 ) I’ll let you all know!
Historical fiction is fab.
Even Georgette Heyer.
At Uni, we all wanted to make our fortunes writing historical romances or detective fiction.
Thanks for lovely history talk. Good night (well, salve)
BK
Posted Friday, October 8, 2010 at 6:00 pm | Permalink
“godd = good
Another Freudian slip…. ”
i forgive thee , only cause you is injured
more you drink less th pain is a blessing
Patrick O’Brian. Number 1.
face-to-face Morgan zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…
Ron
Nice thought. All is well.
STOP THE POLLS
This is a good result, and shows that either Gillard’s controlled approach since the election has worked, and/or Tony Abbott’s shoot from the lip style hasn’t.
Speaking of the latter, how does the timing of this poll line up with Abbott’s jetlag remark on avoiding Afghanistan? I’d bet that will cost him votes with some conservative demographics.
thanks everyone for a very enjoyable afternoon.
Cheers until next time.
S
I expect that this poll reflects the new normal… with Gillard chugging along as PM and the Liberal hate dripping through the cracks in the facade.
I suspect that this poll was not affected by jetlag.
Boerwar
I agree with everything you say.
Plus, it happens all the time in other industries, Newcastle when the steel mills closed, sugar production around my area when the sugar mill closed.
The screams for compensation are always loudest from big agri-business.
@jenauthor
I love historical fiction as well and having attempted to write some I am full of admiration for those who can.
I often find myself seeking out the reality from their stories so I especially enjoy the novels that carefully research and portray the times realistically. If they don’t they should call them fantasy, just as much fun to read maybe but not giving false impressions.
I see that Bligh is trying to get the Commonwealth Games for the Gold Coast. I hope she fails and that the whole travesty drops into the dustbin of history.
[I see that Bligh is trying to get the Commonwealth Games for the Gold Coast. I hope she fails and that the whole travesty drops into the dustbin of history.]
The Gold Coast will win as it will be the only place to bid.
Boerwar
seeds of mire of Murray been long time in th making , and undo life save will take time , and then restore starts And pain must be born by thems that take out water otherwise a time there is when little to take
In past more out of Murray sytem than in and oz dry spells not a help but then i think with cooryong etc dying may be it was a wake up call
Rudds MRB ws first step , States cede some control and athoority kick in pwers between ranges of levels , and tax payers pockets also will be donors in buy backs as a food bowl needs to be there for future kids , and enviro for them to see Pain for gain
I heard the reporting of the Murray Darling recommendations on the radio and found the Ministerial (non) defence of them pretty weak. When people say how much this will cost there are obvious counter arguments:
– what about all the tourism and agricultural jobs lost in the Riverland and Coorong now because their water “entitlements” almost never reach them? What about a fair go for them?
– in recent years most of the entitlements weren’t all received even upstream. You can’t claim you are losing something you aren’t really getting now anyway. This plan is just acknowledging reality and making the pain sharing (roughly) equal.
– this sort of change is inevitable with climate change. The sooner cotton and rice growers accept that the better. They can’t keep doing what they are doing now.
– Adelaide and Melbourne are already spending billions on desalination plants. Others are paying a lot for rural over-allocation. It has to stop.
I will never understand why Labor governments feel obliged to pander to a group that never votes for them, and has been given too much for far too long.
Looking at the track cycling I couldn’t help but notice the way the guys’ wedding tackle is protectively shaped and packaged.
Matt Shervington would have some difficulty taking up this sport.
Boerwar
Well said. I don’t know the details in the Riverina, but in Qld the cost of water licenses didn’t even cover the maintenance cost of the (state provided) dams and pipes.
[The sooner cotton and rice growers accept that the better. ]
I think you will find cotton is grown as an ‘opportunity crop’, flooding rain grow heaps – make mega bucks. No rain – do nothing.
But we are irrigating vineyards when there is a grape glut. Screwy.
Morgan Poll was conducted 1st and 2nd October, so don’t think Jetlag Tony comments would have registered
[I suspect that this poll was not affected by jetlag.]
But what about those pictures of “international statesman” Tone meeting the British PM ?
That should surely bring the LNP back in front ? 😆
Boerwar
I appreciated your terse summary of the water situation.
Australia must come to grips with the fact that we have a finite, though variable resource the demand on which is greater than the supply.
We should allocate water on a baseline (95% certainty ) basis as well as the efficiency of use (ie flooding bad, drip, etc good) and profit (or something else) per kilolitre.
R&S
IMHO, Burke’s heart is not in the environment. He mentioned it in today’s presser almost as an afterthought.
Tourism is relatively cheap to maintain in terms of the megs required to maintain ski lagoons, etc, etc.
Yes, the water was not evenly distributed between the states. there is no guarantee that voluntary buyback will fix that.
The pain sharing will not be roughly equal because it depends on the rather random effect of voluntary water buy backs. If there are concentrations of sellers in certain areas, then those towns will experience disproportionate pain. (This is one of the unfortunate byproducts of the voluntary buyback principle)
Cotton and rice growers will not be affected, in principle, by the Plan. They will continue to plant cotton and rice, as now, depending on the price of water. High rainfall years and full storages will continue to see plenty of cotton and rice grown.
The notion of putting a city in a semi-arid place (Adelaide) and over-populating another area (Melbourne) means that the authorities will pay too much for water, and for just about every other environmental service, while simultaneously degrading that enviornment. Desal plants are a symptom. Not a cure.
Smart governments do not simply walk away from towns and regional centres that they are destroying through policy decisions, no matter how wise the policy. They try to assist them to reconstruct, redirect and re-engage in the global economy. Whether this is ‘pandering’ to them is, I suppose, a value question.
[Smart governments do not simply walk away from towns and regional centres that they are destroying through policy decisions, no matter how wise the policy. They try to assist them to reconstruct, redirect and re-engage in the global economy. Whether this is ‘pandering’ to them is, I suppose, a value question.]
And, Barnaby, what do you think might assist that?
High speed and capacity broadband perhaps?
A few more polls with this sort of numbers, by pollsters apart from Morgans, and the Fibs will be telling Abbott to get on his bike and stay there …
As far as loving history goes, I grew up on diet of GA Henty, Rosemary Sutcliffe and the like. Getting chauffered by my father to just about every castle and “prehistoric” stone arrangement in England, followed by several months touring around Europe from Norway, then down through the Rhine , France and Italy when I was 11 probably helped a bit too!
I’m afraid High School history almost killed my love of it for a while (I had a couple of awful teachers in it), but by the end of uni I found myself writing an honours thesis that looked at the history of race relations in Australia from a sociological perspective.
Working on land claims for thirty odd years always provided lots of opportunities to explore historical matters in Australia, and I must confess I’ve often found such things more interesting than the anthropology.
Always wanted to write historical novels myself. Sadly I’ve never managed to get around to really trying.
[A few more polls with this sort of numbers, by pollsters apart from Morgans, and the Fibs will be telling Abbott to get on his bike and stay there …]
The crumbling of the Abbottista?
Ron@23:
[i forgive thee , only cause you is injured
more you drink less th pain is a blessing]
Indeed. Scotch is better for a bad back than any of the analgesics the docs or pharmacists prescribe.
Don’t know why, maybe relaxation of the muscles is more important than cessation of pain.
[Indeed. Scotch is better for a bad back than any of the analgesics the docs or pharmacists prescribe. ]
You just know the wrong Docs 😉
Our Cuz has just won its first GOLD medal, Cycling