Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. jenauthor
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    “My only reason for wanting Labor to pull ahead in the polls is that it’ll deter Abbott from trying to force an early election — esp. before the senate changes.”

    Jen , i’m afraid nothing will stop him so persuing
    his future is also on line

  2. jen,

    I suspect a lot of people want another election and this may be holding the Libs vote up atm. I doubt Abbott will want to deal with the Greens at all, so he is really only interested in another election.

    The longer the parliament proceeds without major upset, the less relevant Abbott’s approach becomes.

  3. Diogs,

    A parting gift from me, before I go off to bed. If ever they are mean to you just post:

    virga quod calx

    let ’em google dat!

  4. Mod Lib,

    Yeah – maybe. Without meaning to sound like some hippy here, we should regularly ask ourselves the question “who am I?”

    Ultimately, we all live and die by our ethical character. The choices we make on issues like this (and a great, great many others) are the choices *we* make.

  5. Ive been having a break lately from the intense engagement that the last election caused – but lately when I tune in all I hear is the LNP whining like pussies about Gillard and Afghanistan.

    Im sorry, but WTF?? I don’t recall anyone *making* Abbott produce that ridiculous and self-immolating excuse about ‘not wanting jet lag’. Phoney screwed that one u all, by, himself.

    What a turkey! and now all the Fibs are whining and trying to blame Gillard. For what, no one has any idea, as far as I can see.

  6. [It is being written as we type.]

    Let history record that the present Leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott, is an oriface of the most evil-smelling, with humours, most foul. When in comfany with this personage, it will upon most occasion be noted to produde spittalige, to the dismeanour of femalaes present upon such occasion. A treacherous wretch best run through with quick dispatch.

  7. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:45 pm | Permalink


    The longer the parliament proceeds without major upset, the less relevant Abbott’s approach becomes.]

    The Newspoll results regarding Tones popularity taking a dive really highlights the accuracy of your statement I think.

    Watching the footage of him on the news tonight from his visit to Afghanistan gave me the creeps. We dodged a bullet in this last election but I don’t think a lot of people in this country will truly appreciate this.


  8. [Wouldn’t you have expected a better ALP TPP result than 50%?]

    Yeah, i would have expected a higher TPP to the ALP. But, also i would not have expected Abbott’s PPM status and approval to have taken such a hit if the TPP had not moved.

    It seems to me that the electrate has not moved much in left/right terms but Abbott is in decline. When your PPM rating is a long way below your party’s primary vote it suggests you’ve taken your party to a bad place.

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