Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. Mod Lib

    just saw your post at 1143. I don’t think it has been disastrous for Labor at all. I think things are basically status quo apart from Julia increasing support as PPM, and Abbott losing support. Time will tell.

    Night all

  2. At least we take comfort from the fact that if even if is not highlighted by the msm, at least Abbott has at last sustained some poll damage

  3. Diogs,

    I love it when you expect others to sacrifice their careers for your prejudices.

    Massola’s physical status is of no interest to me. My point was there were others further up the greasy pole directing traffic. Maybe that’s where you should be directing your ire.

  4. They showed Abbott on Lateline avoiding a media question on his arrival at the airport.

    I don’t think I have seen a politician who comes across as more of a PIG than Abbott.

    He is not only empty upstairs, but he really is one very “rude” individual I have no doubt!

  5. [Anyone have the email for the ABC’s Ms Clarke…I feel a discourse coming on :-)]

    Any joy on that?

    I’d like to know her background. What is her experience? Her training as a reporter? Where did she start? Who were her mentors?

  6. Julia the Hare who raced to an election is now Julia the Tortoise? There must be a new fable in that.

    Labor is in too precarious a position (in government and it’s own internal listlessness) to do anyone slowly. Abbott though is more than capable of doing himself.

  7. I’m sure those who have all these polls in excel spreadsheets will soon tell us, but there is nothing wrong with making adjustments to polls. If they make the same error each time based on their methodology (using 2007 prefs or 2010 prefs for a recent example) it is legitimate to adjust. As it happens I have been subtracting 3 or 4 from Morgan F2F polls for years (even without doing the calculation whoever posted before the election, I think it was William, did you could tell Morgan was always pro ALP.

    I am not saying this is a disastrous for ALP, I am saying this has been a disastrous period for Libs, and you would have thought there would be some impact in the polls, in unison with the usual honeymoon boost for whoever wins govt. U R right though, the real polls of interest are in the distant future…

  8. GG

    [I love it when you expect others to sacrifice their careers for your prejudices.]

    No, he has to take responsibility for his decisions. It came out under Massola’s name so he has to wear it.

    Bosses always pull that crap. The weak fall for it.

  9. [I am not saying this is a disastrous for ALP, I am saying this has been a disastrous period for Libs, and you would have thought there would be some impact in the polls…]

    It appears that the impact is showing up in Abbott’s satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings

  10. [Because Bowen made that statement on Q&A which went unchallenged by his tory counterpart. Also there were 200,000 asylum seekers which arrived in Canada in the same period.]
    Not only that but Scott Morrison conceded that they had less boats but more passengers.
    We are getting more boats with sometimes as little as 12 passengers. Howard ended up with less boats but each had hundreds of passengers.

  11. Diogs,

    Well little ol Bolshie you.

    I presume you won’t be simply re posting News crap from now on or would that require you taking responsibility for what you post.

  12. Pegasus
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    Ruawake,

    ‘At last the penny has dropped, well done.’

    “It is good to see that you treat the ALP membership with the same condescension as you treat me.”

    Ru ,
    in my absence you’ve had a dozen “exchanges” with Pegasus tonite ,
    geez pinching one of my pet parrots you should be ashamed

    GeeWhizz i suppose you’re chase next

  13. just watched the i/v with Kevin Rudd on 7-30 report…he is still class and is obviously doing a job he loves and is completely in control of the portfolio and himself (and red kerry). I firmly believe he will be a future UN Sec General. Still love your work minister.

  14. reensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Diogs,

    “I love it when you expect others to sacrifice their careers for your prejudices.”

    GG , but diog thinks he is special

  15. [I don’t think I have seen a politician who comes across as more of a PIG than Abbott.]

    Yep no class at all.

    If you saw Julia at today’s luncheon, ypu’d say all class.

    Chalk and cheese

  16. jenauthor
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    ‘I don’t think I have seen a politician who comes across as more of a PIG than Abbott.’

    “Yep no class at all.”

    I’ve never seen a politcan untill Tony Abbott who always appears to be lying ,
    even when he is

  17. GG

    You might not understand the concept of referencing. It’s kind of part of the academic method. You provide references and quotes and comment on them.

    Poss

    [Massola could have pushed back. Others do, he didn’t, he wears it.]

    Agreed.

  18. Diogs,

    You posting, “Oh looky, looky, Labor is in trouble” and then posting a News link is not academic method.

    I’m surprised you think it is.

  19. Grog was outed because he nailed tony Abbott and Journo’s with inconvenent truths of of disorganized polisy and new incompetence

    empire struck back at Grog , embarassed

  20. I understand that Greeny. The details of the whole, pathetic saga will come out one day and it wont be pretty to some of those involved.

    Mod Lib,

    The Nuremberg defence has always been as weak as piss – in the media, even more so.

  21. [Anyone else noticed that Psephos has disappeared? Has he been Grogged?]

    Video sed taceo.
    The election is over, so I don’t have much psephological to say at present.

    My identity is already well-known, including to Mr Massola, and anyway I’m not a public servant.

  22. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Diogs,
    “You posting, “Oh looky, looky, Labor is in trouble” and then posting a News link is not academic method.”

    GG
    for diog , it is all part of facade of being an alleged “independant” , whilst being in a closet

  23. [If as expected, the new media wins the blog wars, then I expect the victors to write the history.]

    It is being written as we type.

  24. [Wouldn’t you have expected a better ALP TPP result than 50%?]
    Why should it?
    I’ll become interested in the polls again in 2013.

  25. [for diog , it is all part of facade of being an alleged “independant” , whilst being in a closet]

    Anyone that blogs under a pseudonym is ‘in the closet’.

  26. Received this email today, advising of the completion of a magnificent new web site, which has been long in the making and even longer in the contributions by many volunteering Labor faithful. If you are unaware of it, hope you find it of interest and worthy of wide distribution.

    Dear david

    A new place to explore Labor’s History

    The Chifley Research Centre has launched http://www.laborhistory.org.au – a new resource to allow all interested Australians to take a fresh look at Labor’s History at a national level. Labor in government and in opposition has played a critical role in shaping Australia, and this website is a new way to explore how policy has been made and a nation changed.

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    Labor History brings to life parts of our story which have been hidden from view for too long. Here you can explore the key Conference debates and campaigns which have shaped Australia, and meet some of the characters who have made Labor Australia’s oldest and most enduring political party.

    o See Andrew Fisher and King O’Malley as they lay the foundation stone for the National Capital.

    o Watch Labor’s original 1946 election campaign ads which were originally screened in movie theatres

    o Hear Lionel Murphy support protesters calls to end the war in Vietnam.

    o Watch the original “It’s Time” commercial in all its glory

    A growing site for Labor History

    Labor History presents a timeline that stretches from the beginnings of the ALP in the 1890s to the great victory of 1983. Over coming years, the site will build on these periods by providing even more material drawn from the archives of the ALP (National Secretariat), other government archives and material from you.

    A role for Party members, local historians, True Believers

    Labor’s history has been created by millions of Party members and supporters, through work inside the ALP and through campaigns in the community. Labor History wants to show the historical work of the ALP in all its forms – the work of politicians and reformers, but also the tireless work of Branch members and supporters. That’s why the site also invites members to share their unique examples of Labor History with other viewers. On the site you can send in photos of document files of examples from your local area, or showing your contribution to the Party. People have already sent in examples of branch minutes from our early history and photos of Labor figures, never before seen in public.

    You can contribute your original examples of Labor’s history directly to the site by uploading them here. Help us to build Labor’s story by letting us know about other resources on the internet here.

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    The Chifley Research Centre invites you to help build the history of progressive Australia through this new website.

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    Chifley Research Centre

    http://www.laborhistory.org.au/home.html

  27. Very impressed with Rudd earlier on Red Kerry – Kevy is a class act! 🙂
    Abbott on the other hand is pathetic, a nasty piece of work propped up by News Ltd and talkback radio.

  28. [I always liken Diogs to being an inmate in an asylum. He gets to meet lots of independent minds.]

    It is great having a split-personality – one doesn’t have to leave home to meet independent minds.

  29. British Politics rumour: David Miliband won’t be out of the limelight for too long, he’ll make a quick return to his brother’s shadow front bench within 6 months.

  30. Possum (& George!) agree Massola takes responsibility for his actions (I think I called him sly in an earlier post, perhaps too gentle in retrospect?), but just making the point that there may be others at least equally guilty.

    Poor old Diogs…..after some have quoted latin, let me quote Kamahl:
    Why are people so unkind?

  31. My only reason for wanting Labor to pull ahead in the polls is that it’ll deter Abbott from trying to force an early election — esp. before the senate changes.

  32. Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Ron,

    “I always liken Diogs to being an inmate in an asylum. He gets to meet lots of independent minds.”

    and all independently agreeing using his famed “academic method”

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