Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. [SNIP: Invective deleted (subject: James Massola) – The Management]

    Yes, there’s a special place in hell for the likes of that unethical drongo.

  2. Darren I complained to the ABC several times about Clarke’s apparent lack of unbiased reporting during the election campaign. I have thus far received one reply, the standard thank you for your comment but… etc etc. It is a waste of time writing to them, i have yet to hear during and since the election one complaint that has been upheld and any discipline was dished out.
    I am going to try the direct approach, using caution of course so as not to enter the realms of slander. At least it is a way of reminding these ABC hacks they are being watched and noted.

  3. [SNIP: Invective deleted (subject: James Massola) – The Management]

    Dio, it would be worthwhile giving up Athiesm for that pleasure…

  4. [Abbott’s approval rating is 39 (down 9) and his disapproval rating is 47 (up 9).]

    So what does Mr “completely unbiased” Centrebet offer on his books for next Liberal Party leader??


  5. [Question is who could back up candidate be? Can’t see who would get better numbers than him? Unless there is a newly elected talented person in the wings]

    Right now, the most obvious choice is Mal. The far right, of course, won’t want that. So they’ll be trying to doll up someone to be his successor. I hear Morrison on here and other places. He may fit the role, but he lacks gravitas. Really, someone needs to start stepping out and making a name for themselves. Firstly, by being on the front foot in their fortfolio attacks, then making some commentary on issues not related to their role and maybe making some soft media appearance, just as “Joe Bloggs” not “The Opposition Spokesperson for…”

  6. Diogs,

    I understand that Massola was a very reluctant recruit. That the story was demanded from Chris Mitchell once he had found out that Massola had boasted he knew who Grog was on twitter or the like. Massola had his whole carreer flash before his eyes and acquiesced.

    News have now apparently introduced a 4 page protocol on use of Social Media by their journos.

  7. TSOP

    Apparently Mal’s approval ratings are even lower than Abbott’s. As I said, unless there is a fresh newly minted talented minister in their ranks, can’t see who can be a replacement. Maybe our friend Pynney?!

  8. 1104, Yes David our letters and emails are usually burnt or replied to from “standard paragraphs” – yep, you bet they receive sh*tloads of complaints specifically about Melissa Clarke’s open support of the LNP that she warrants standard paragraphs ready for official responses!

    The direct approach is best. Going through the official channels is futile.

    I switched off the ABC24 a few months ago now and I have never felt better. My television has thanked me too, since it has had less vodka and coffee cups hurled at it!

    Take Cuppa’s advice:

    [ABC? No, thank you!]

  9. Didnt really follow the Massola thing but obviously pretty sly.

    Couldn’t he be liable for a loss of trade suit by Grog? Any Barristers out there wanting to take that on?

  10. The BBC doco shown tonight(part !)on Four Corners ABC was a shocking indictment of the folly of Bush and Blair and their sycophants(Howard wasn’t mentioned) and their conduct of the war in Iraq..it’s hard to judge who was the worst Blair or Bush ..

    Almost too horrible to watch it showed the crass stupidity of those leaders and the mayhem they unleashed on millions of innocent Iraqi civilians. The thousands slaughtered by the US forces in Falujah,and the way in which every Iraqi was effected and so many drawn into a resistance movement
    One thinks of the way Europeans resisted the Nazi occupiers in WW2 and the heroism of the Irish in the war there after 1916 against the cruelty of the British
    All occupiers ,no matter where…..in Ireland/Iraq/Vietnam/Palestine/Algeria or where ever all eventually face the same resistance and destroy themselves too.if the war/occupation isn’t ended/
    Look at the disasters in the US economy today. caused by the military expenditure.
    We recently have watched an excellent Australian film..”Tomorrow ,When the war began” which is well worth seeing…and gives a fictionalized acount of Australian restistance to a foreign invasion and occupation….

    …try to see it..a brilliant film
    The BBC Iraq doco is on again next week on 4 Corners time slot.
    ,,and that should make us think About Afghanistan…and the nonsense that Abbot.Julia and Kevin R are spouting !!
    No wonder the Greens are on the rise !

  11. So the Real story in this poll is the 18% drop in net satisfaction with Abbott. +10 to -8. I guess that’s the oo headline then. Not

  12. Scarpat

    Any truffles in Perigord yet? BTW the new book in that series set in Perigord that I mentioned the other day is called Black Diamond and is about truffles. Evidently some Chinese truffles are being passed off as French.

    Sacre bleu!

  13. [So what does Mr “completely unbiased” Centrebet offer on his books for next Liberal Party leader??]

    Maybe someone in a safe Lib WA seat can make way for the return of Wilson Tuckey, so he can take the leadership! 😆

    Him and Mirabella as a leadership duo, it’s like an episode of Doctor Who. Tuckey as Davros and Mirabella as some hideous thing.

  14. BK913
    [My blood is boiling watching 4 Corners. Bush, Rumsfeld, etc are deserving of undying disrespect.]

    And both the Rodent and Teflon Tony Blair should be held accountable for their stupid, lying, sychophantic roles in that mess.

    Be very scared. Should the Mad Macho Monk ever become PM a repeat is very possible. The comparison with GWBush is the stuff of nightmares.

    The Federal Liberals are going the same way as the State Liberals – not only unelectable but completely out of contention.

    Gillard as PM, Rudd as FM and Swann as Treasurer provide some reassurance ….

  15. [So the Real story in this poll is the 18% drop in net satisfaction with Abbott. +10 to -8. I guess that’s the oo headline then. Not]

    Yep and their ABC Breakfast 24 and Fran Kelly will be running this line tomorrow……

  16. [So the Real story in this poll is the 18% drop in net satisfaction with Abbott. +10 to -8. I guess that’s the oo headline then. Not]

    Abbott’s satisfaction rating collapses…. 0% chance

    Coalition vote stagnates… 0% chance

    Liberal Party primary vote still ahead… bingo!

  17. madcyril

    perhaps I was being too optimistic, but I did expect a better Newspoll for 2PP, but at least Gillard is improving and the Rabbott is going backwards.

  18. [Maybe our friend Pynney?!]

    Can if he wants. It would be the best gift to Labor ever.

    Remember when Downer was Lib leader? That times a thousand.

    Which makes me cry. They’re both South Australians. Maybe one day, one day, we’ll finally break the drought and have a PM who is a SA resident. (And yes, we have good politicians)

  19. Ghost

    Thanks much – hope you never get grogged

    Now, I hope Mr Sandman has something better in store for me than the knowledge that half my fellow Australians want a Liberal Federal Government, and that the economy is headed either best case 1970s stagflation or 1930s depression (but briefly, thanks for that article link – interesting)

  20. [Abbott’s satisfaction rating collapses…. 0% chance

    Coalition vote stagnates… 0% chance

    Liberal Party primary vote still ahead… bingo!]

    Unless they get the phone call from Lib powerbrokers that they want to roll Abbott. Then it will be about the disastrous slide of Abbott’s support.

  21. Laocoon

    The Libs cannot take comfort in this Newspoll. I doubt that they would want to go to the Polls in the foreseeable future. Not likely to win govt.

  22. Why do Liberal South Australia pollies have that accent? (Or “Cultivated Australian English” as Wikipedia calls it)

    Please explain with reference to Pyne and Downer.

  23. Hockey will lead the Fibs at the next election. But if it’s Abbott, I’m happy with it. I don’t think he can turn the tables in 2013.

  24. The Abbott nett negatives probably explain his black mood. This is the usual precursor for a leadership change. The next Parliamentary sitting will be critical for Abbott’s survival.

    He’ll need a decisive win to stop the rumbles over Christmas.

  25. victoria, I think it will take some time for a clear trend to develop in the polls. With all the sport etc that has been happening, I reckon most people are ignoring politics at the moment and sticking with who they voted for at the election.

  26. [Ha! What did O’Dwyer say to that?]

    She said they very graciously gave up and arbib said “sure doesn’t feel like it — Tony Abbott doesn’t seem to know” but Jones started talking over him to close the show.

    It’ll be interesting to see if it’s taken off the replay tomorrow.

  27. Victoria 1131:

    Based on William’s (?) post before the election, and this is from memory, you need to subtract 1 or 2 from Essential, 2 from Morgan Telephone and 4 from Morgan Face to Face to get the Newspoll result on average. So all these recent polls are pretty consistent with this remaining a 50:50 proposition.

    The real story here is how badly ALP is doing despite a disastrous period for the Libs (basically since 21st Aug)!

  28. madcyril

    Yes, it has been wall to wall sports since election. The govt are just getting settled in. It will take time for a trend to be established.

    On that note, night all.

  29. So let me get this straight the opposition havent gone down in the polls but Abbott has taken a hit in them.

    What are Julia’s ratings?

  30. Gillards net approval improves by 7%
    abbott’s deteriorates by 18%

    I don’t know what’s more disappointing : that there is no 2pp shift to Labor or that this won’t be highlighted.

    Quite apart from the large percentage shifts, in the context of afghan spat it is important. Maybe tone was extra grumpy from similar internal polling ??

  31. GG

    [Massola had his whole carreer flash before his eyes and acquiesced.]

    Tough. I’m not big on the “just punching the clock” excuse. Massola is a miserable sack of excrement and his pathetic justifications have shown he is a light-weight fool as well.


    [So when will Masola out Oakes’ or Riley’s sources??

    Waiting… waiting…]

    Some dimwit wrote an article on Crikey saying that Grog blogging was a “public act” and so it was fair to out him. Of course the same dimwit wants legislation to protect people who leak to the press information which will be made public, which is also a public act.

  32. Seeing as we have had 17 days of uncertainty after the election, three days of parliament and not much else I think the poll is a ok result for labor.

    Sure it would be good to have a 2PP of 52-54% to labor but as this early stage of the cycle with little real policy on the ground rolling it just was not going to happen. The big result is the PPM for Julia. From these figures one can assume people have started looking at her and starting to like what they see.

    If she keeps on going with the cool calm approach she will continue to improve the gap between her and Abbott. Once this happens people will listen more and the 2PP will be dragged up with her.

    I realise it is frustrating that improvement in 2PP has yet to materialise but it has to be realised people will not come back to labor until they see a reason to come back. This will happen but people believe rightly or not that labor let them down so to get them back will take good policy and solid leadership. This will happen. It may take six to nine months but it will happen.

    Keep the faith.

  33. [The real story here is how badly ALP is doing despite a disastrous period for the Libs (basically since 21st Aug)!]

    No it’s not. There is no real story here, except that there is a line divided down the middle of the population and it’s not shifting.

    You can arbitrarily subtract whatever you want from poll results, any accuracy in the end result will be entirely coincidental.

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