Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  3. Bojo @ 1013

    Sorry if it is becoming repetitive but it is a very important issue in my opinion. I only posted my first ever comment on this site the other day bacause I feel so strongly about the ABC’s metamorphosis into News Ltd.
    I actually find it insulting that journalists who are ultimately paid by the tax payer use their priviliged position, trading off the good name of the ABC to f#&k over working people like me so that these over paid journos can enjoy the perks of a liberal government such as tax payer funded nannies and parental leave for those earning 150k a year.
    Repetitive to you, bloody important to me. cheers.

  9. Well put, the Bull.

    I couldn’t be bothered engaging with the likes of “Bojo”. The ABC bias sceptics, nay deniers, were thoroughly discredited during and after this election campaign. They wont shut us up now.

    I should know, I was among them!

  10. I read somewhere recently that first term governments get a polling honeymoon, whereas re-elected governments do not.

    I can’t recall where I read this, but is this reflected in historical polling, ie across governments?

  11. [Chris Masters is the best and longest serving Four Corners reporter]

    Chris Masters puts the current crop of MSM and ABC reporters to shame.

  15. [I couldn’t be bothered engaging with the likes of “Bojo”. The ABC bias sceptics, nay deniers, were thoroughly discredited during and after this election campaign. They wont shut us up now.]

    welcome aboard

    the ride might get a bit rocky

  17. 1057

    Melissa Clarke was exposed as a card carrying LNP supporter during the coverage of this election on the ABC. Why she’s still employed there as a “political journalist” is beyond me.

    Oh, that’s right, it’s their ABC.

  18. [TSOP

    What do you make of this latest poll?]

    The nation is still as divided as ever. Nobody is really making ground, but it’s Tone who is really in trouble here. He’s the one who needs to push forward. If he doesn’t the voters will back the devil they know next time around (and Gillard WILL have incumbency on her side next time) the NSW boogeyman will be gone too, by then. However, the next election is still about 3 years away (despite what the inbred idiots believe) so, it’s early days…

  20. [I read somewhere recently that first term governments get a polling honeymoon, whereas re-elected governments do not.]

    A 50-50 poll for Labor in the Australian can be considered a polling honeymoon 🙂

  24. It appears Abbott has survived jetlag-gate 2PP-wise. Dont know what the satisfaction scores are.

    When is Labor going to realise that slow and steady does NOT win the race?

  26. [Melissa Clarke was exposed as a card carrying LNP supporter during the coverage of this election on the ABC. Why she’s still employed there as a “political journalist” is beyond me.]

    Perhaps the correct term should be ‘politicized journalist’.

  28. As i said before, Abbott is backing a loser wanting more troops in Afghanistan.

    [On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.]

    BTW Lisa Forrest wins QANDA hands down.

  29. [Actually, am I the only one, when meeting a conservative, who baits them in conversation to see how far to the right they are, just to gauge how insane they may be?]

    TSOP. No x 3 of us here.

  31. [BK:

    I’ve already switched off qanda. In a word: boring]
    confessions
    Snap! I’m just about to pull the pin on it after 20 minutes.
    In fact I’m pulling stumps.
    Goodnight all.

  37. [If Abbott’s numbers do not improve, will he be rolled?]

    Anyone’s guess at this point. I think behind the scenes, the Lib powerbrokers are definitely preparing a contingency plan and a “back up” candidate.

    Personally, I hope not. A fresh face could break the deadlock. On the other hand, I don’t want Tone to stay on and then break it himself and get a chance to take all of his issues on the country…

  38. For those who turned off — you missed the best bit!

    The last question wtte –“what can pollies learn from sportspeople and vice versa”

    O’Dwyer said pollies could learn perseverence and had a shot about Labor’s lack of perseverance on Climate Change.

    Arbib came back with — “some pollies could learn how to lose!”

  41. I’m with you Andrew. The ALP need to quit the submarine act – going deep and quiet didn’t work in the last govt, and I don’t think it will work in this one.

  42. TSOP

    Question is who could back up candidate be? Can’t see who would get better numbers than him? Unless there is a newly elected talented person in the wings

  43. I’m still looking forward to the Bishop/O’Dwyer Liberal ticket when Tone is moved on.

    A mother/daughter ticket will be just the generational and gender change the Liberal Party needs if it is to move forward.

  48. Darren

    Grog seems to have been grogged. He hasn’t posted in a fortnight. SNIP: Invective deleted (subject: James Massola) – The Management.

Comments are closed.

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