Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. That’s good news WB.

    From the other thread – currency war? What a load of crap! Sounds like someone getting punched in the face who then retorts – I just wanted to see how hard you punch, it didn’t hurt (clutching a broken jaw).

    Come on, the financial world’s mechanics are pretty simple and well described by the language.

    Interest = lenders incentive

    With any lending, the main considerations are

    -The total amount to be lent
    -The credit rating of the lender
    -The duration of the loan

    This is a simplistic examination of something that I am qualified to say only by being a borrower.

    The US caused the GFC not because they had high interest rates, but because the US housing market was presumed to be following that magical real estate agents’ spin “property always goes up in value”, investors were sucked in. This was how the war was paid for if you ask me. The extreme capitalists shafted the rest of the world big time. It was the only way to gather that much money for their war. Only the US housing market could inhale so much finance. Most businesses would not be able to promise returns on such a huge investment, for example: what could your average business do with a trillion dollars? Sweet FA.

    Property will always be worth exactly as much as someone is prepared to pay, just like anything else.

    Aussies did hurt. It is the baby boomers who lost out with massive drops in their super amongst others. Luckily, we have some awesome brains in our financial sector, and we are kicking butt!

    Having a high currency is good, don’t let anyone say otherwise.

    There are problems associated – exporters struggle. I am an exporter, but luckily I still get the bulk of my work from Australia.

    So what do you do if you have industries struggling? These industries need to be evaluated for their long term profitability, however, there are other factors as well.

    For us, a high currency is usually a temporary thing, although I think that it will remain high because we kick butt!

    People suggesting that we devalue our currency, wash your mouths out with soap. We can print money, but this dilutes wages, causes inflation and many other bad things. There is absolutely no need for this.

    I can’t believe that miners and farmers are still politically aligned. Farmers in the MD basin exemplify the stupidity of this group. Happy to look after their own land with enough water taken for environmental flows, won’t address the environmental issues downstream. My industry isn’t getting $3 billion put into helping change tact. FFS, some of them are growing rice! This is dumb and should not be permitted in an area which would normally be open scrub or desert. Struth, maybe I have found some common elements between farmers and miners. “We’re quite comfortable with our current arrangement so bugger off”. This does not work for the rest of us.

    A successful business is one which can profit in the operating environment. Without welfare, no one would bail me out if I couldn’t be competitive.

    So here is the contradiction of the capitalist farmers and miners. Miners making truckloads of money “don’t tax us just because you can’t profit in this environment”, and farmers “don’t take our water from us, we’ll go broke and riot”.

    The strongest capitalist response came from the Rudd government. The notion is that we can make more money over time with some common sense.

    The MD basin plan is also a capitalist response. The notion is that if you can’t make money without ruining the environment, bugger off.

    I don’t like an emphasis on jobs jobs jobs just for jobs sake. “Busy work” is BS and doesn’t benefit anyone.

    This is why we have welfare. I’ve had to deal with it, hopefully never again. If you can’t make yourself useful, there are systems in place to help find your best application.

    These systems are currently crap because of peoples’ paranoia about bludgers. Does anyone think that I need a job network tosser to tell me how to write a resume? I hope not. Job network is valuable for some, but every minute I spent with them was a waste of taxpayers money. Lucky for me, I have found my own way to be useful.

    Unemployment is not a big deal, especially when our currency is strong. A strong currency is only a big deal for vulnerable exporting businesses.

    Enter my lefty persona: I don’t care for these businesses, but I care greatly for the people involved and our national interest.

    If a person can’t make themselves useful because they can’t be competitive in their field, then its clear what needs to happen. Find a different field.

    My business is heavily dependent on discretionary spending. I have already had a bad scare which has caused me to join a class action. I received 0 sympathy from centrelink, because their guidelines are so narrow (thanks again lib knobs *language softened by OH*). I am ready to find greener pastures if necessary. I will use the welfare system if necessary. This is its purpose for someone like myself.

    These MD basin farmers have gained a competitive advantage by being able to trash the Coorong. No question about it. These farmers are going to experience a necessary correction. I agree that proper compensation needs to be paid so that they can find greener pastures wherever they may be. Their pastures may not be profitable anymore now that we are addressing our river systems.

    Miners are receiving a competitive advantage because of their development, efficiency and a terrific product. Given that the dirt is part of our Commonwealth, they should pipe down and take their medicine. Yes, we are capitalising on their businesses as we should. We know that we have the best iron ore available in vast quantity. We will take advantage of this so that we can invigorate our complete garden of viable businesses – many are struggling. Mining is boom and bust, always has been. Other businesses are steadier, but the GFC has caused damage to many businesses and peoples’ savings. This needs to be addressed.

    Infrastructure projects – particularly the NBN are designed to invigorate our garden of businesses by providing greater opportunities.

    Let us not get conned again by the miners who reckon they are the backbone of our economy. They are just flavour of the month. Letting them continue making the money they do out of our collective dirt is preventing us from being able to adapt to changing circumstances.

    Miners and farmers; opposed to capitalism. Their leaning seems to me to follow no political philosophy except gimme. Gimme is not capitalism.

    Capitalism is making the most of what you have. These farmers and miners are wearing blinkers. Look at the big picture.

    We can also choose to support certain businesses for our national interest, for example, we should protect viable farmland and agricultural businesses for our national and international interest. We greens want to protect these businesses by taking into account the environmental cost of cheap imports.

    When our nation’s garden of businesses are flourishing in balance in the free world, we have the ultimate capitalism, with socialist underpinnings.

    Rant complete, forgive my structure if you are having trouble.

  2. Has Waleed Ali also caught Their ABC24’s disease calling Abbott’s visit to Afghanistan an “Action Visit” as a great line.

    It must be the charms and giggling of La Trioli that have mesmerised him.

  3. [Rant complete, forgive my structure if you are having trouble.]

    Radguy, that is a pretty good codification for the IP. But you do need a meaningful abstract that capture the essence of your patent application, especially for the PCT.

    Thankfully i never had to touch Centrelink. Cheers.

  4. [deflationite
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 1:47 am | Permalink
    We are a traditonally a highly trade currency,]

    True

    [ and also we are one of the countries with the highest interest rates in the world.]

    Needs to be qualified, “one of the developed countries with the highest interest rates”, at the moment, they are higher because we unlike the rest of the developed world are on the upward part of the cycle.

    [The combination of being seen as ’safe’ and the arbitrage benefits of higher interest than the rest of the developed world has created a perfect storm of currency appreciation.]

    True, but why are we considered “safe”, and why do we have high interest rates they are the questions.

    [Has very little if nothing to do with the relative strength of our economy compared to others (developed).]

    No? Then why are we considered safe and why do we have high interest rates, clearly they are not high to attract capital ( which we still import), otherwise we would have a low exchange rate.

    [Very much to do with currency speculators being used to the currency and the interest rates her and there future highs.]

    Rational investment has nothing to do with currency speculation, we are highly traded currency because it is treated as a commodity proxy.

    [There is not inherent strength in the valuation. It is all speculative and temporary.]
    If you believe this buy US dollars, you will make a killing when it comes to pass.

    There is no long term aspect of the currency strength.

    As quickly as it goes upn ut will go down.

    Commodity crash, property crash any number of things will bring things back to their long term average of 70c per $US. It will come back, might take a year or two but it will happen.]

    There is nothing magical about 70 cents ( except it is where it needs to be for manufacturing to survive).

    [Get on $US gold, I’m expecting it to continue to rise for a couple of years then stagnate, if you buy your gold from Aus in Us dollars and then Aus$ devalues, then could be very good returns.]

    No mate, if you truly believe what your typing buy US dollars, when the crash happens change back to $A. Buying gold only makes sense if you expect the dollar to fall relative to the US and the US to fall relative to gold.

    It all comes down to one issue, can China hold it together. I don’t know, but i’m not having my money sitting in a speculative asset, and that is all gold is.

  5. It’s just a provisional at the moment Finns. 12 months I have for full application plus a year and a half for PCT app. I’ll get the format by then. Cheers though, PA advice aint’ cheap! 🙂

  6. [There is nothing magical about 70 cents ( except it is where it needs to be for manufacturing to survive).]

    Distribution and population is what I think is the gravitational force on our currency. I agree that it will go back to this if the rest of the world catch up with our brilliance!

  7. [True, but why are we considered “safe”,]

    AUD is not a “safe” currency, it is heavily traded and speculated.

    USD is “safe” because it is a de facto “world currency” where it is held and hoarded by the punters all the way up to Nations. There is no alternative.

  8. FINNIGANS –

    Yo, Kevin ruled the ‘hood,
    Just like a PM should
    Till the bro’s went insane
    Crazy in the brain

    The bro’s gave Kev the sack
    Just like they did to Tupac
    Put a cap in his ass
    And left him face down in da grass.

    Yo, den Julia made da queen
    And leakin’ made her mean
    Any bro’s did protest
    Had to wear a bullet-proof vest
    But with da independents on her side
    She put Abbott on da slide.

    Abbott called her a ‘low act’
    Which really ain’t no fact
    He called her un-Australian
    And used a big word in Italian

    Now Julia rules da block
    Her hand on da Glock
    If Abbott give her bother
    She call him a jet-lagged mother

  9. The 4.5% swing to Labor in WA does tie-in with the movement in the Morgan poll.

    On Aug 14/15, we had the Phone poll showing 51/49 to ALP & the Face:Face showing 52/48. Assuming the Phone poll was 100% accurate & the ALP lost 1% between then & the election, then a Face:Face at election time would have shown 51/49.

    The Face:Face is now 55.5/45.5, that is, a 4.5% swing to the ALP since the election.

  10. VIK – If labor is pulling ahead (as it seems to be) why isn’t Julia pulling ahead as preferred prime minister. I would have thought they would move together.

  11. Looks like some fun ahead with the unhinged one calling Gillard a liar and acting with “low bastardr” and the breaker of the story, Phil Coorey, saying that his story did not come from the government.
    Of course that paragon of journalistic virtue, Matthew Franklin of the OO, is siding with the unhinged one.

  12. BK – But if everything Tony says is true, how does that make Gillard a “low bastard”. We may all have to work-shop this because there is certainly a nuance I am missing.

  13. [… Phil Coorey, saying that his story did not come from the government.]

    BK

    Abbott has been caught with his pants down.

  14. what Abbott forgets is that it would be better to show bipartisanship on the war, than go by himself to grandstand. he should be asked to explain this. and also “michael” johnson’s comments about not enough equipment.

    this might be his unmaking due to his loose tongue, but he is trying to emulate JWH with wrapping himself in the flag, though with the rodent’s rat cunning.

  15. Frank

    [William BowePosted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 2:10 am | PermalinkI’m confused.

    According to Matthew Franklin in The Australian, Gillard has “countered (Abbott’s) accusation of political bastardry by saying she revealed her rival’s rejection of her invitation simply to answer questions posed by reporters”. Franklin nonetheless considers her action in doing so “cheap-shot politics”, “low-rent, gotcha politics and undergraduate spin” and “the pursuit of spin over substance”, by a person who “ought to know better”.

    But in the SMH, Peter Hartcher says Abbott was “mistaken” to assert that “Gillard’s office was briefing last Monday that I’d somehow dudded the troops by not visiting”: “The reporter who disclosed the fact that Abbott had turned down the Gillard offer, the Herald’s Phillip Coorey, says the information did not come from the government.”

    But which story will get the run on Their ABC ??]

    Frank – I doubt that you will be surprised which one got the run on NewsRadio

  16. BK – Laocoon – I think my cover has been blown. I actually live in down-town Baltimore. Ask me any questions you like about The Wire.

  17. rosa

    Fear not. If you coined a particularly colourful turn of phrase, used that in some obscure music publications back in the 90s, you can always threaten people into silence 😡

  18. Gary posted this link last night on the Horwaths scandal of the Coalition’s costings:
    [Challenged as to whether the Coalition’s numbers made sense, {Hockey} told ABC radio, ”if the fifth-biggest accounting firm in Australia signs off on our numbers it is a brave person to start saying there are accounting tricks. I tell you it is audited. This is an audited statement.”

    Opposition finance spokesman Andrew Robb backed up Mr Hockey, saying if Horwath made a mistake with the auditing of accounts for companies ”they are at risk of being punished and going to jail”.]
    Wow…this is a serious audit, aint it; go to jail stuff…

    Whoops, Horwarths have been subject to a professional investigation (dont know how that ended), and dont want to burn for Hockey…

    [The letter from Horwath principals Geoff Kidd and Cyrus Patell dated July 13 and countersigned by Mr Loughnane makes clear that the work was little more than a spreadsheet to ”review the arithmetic accuracy of the Liberal Party of Australia’s costing estimates”.]
    And Brian Loughnane aint going to take one for Hockey either…in fact, this looks like a classic hospital pass…
    [Asked to explain the discrepancy between the letters he had signed and the claims made by his treasury spokesman, Mr Loughnane said yesterday ”you’ll have to ask Joe why he said what he said”.

    Via a statement Mr Hockey said he had used the word audited ”as would be understood in laymen’s terms”.]
    Well Joe, what is a layman’s understanding of an “audited statement” and “going to jail”?

    Actually Joe, can you tell me a layman’s understanding of “misleading and deceptive conduct”?

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/hockeys-audit-claims-appear-false-20101010-16e0k.html

  19. My wife, who ponders things a lot, asks:

    Is Tony Abbott on some form of performance-enhancing substance? There’s the body obsession. The strange walk. The aggression. The gaunt visage. The frenetic activity. Is there a doctor in the house?

    (PS: Have to go now. Major shopping expedition beckons.)

  20. While on Robb, that designation of him on ABC News yesterday as Acting Opposition Treasury spokesman is very odd when one considers Robb is actually the Opposition Finance Spokesman. His comment on the IMF was very fairly in the realm of Finance. However, he portrayed himself (would not have been a journo) otherwise.

    Maybe more signs of Hockey stirring for leadership when Robb makes this calculated slight and Loughnane gives him a hospital pass…rumbles of internal warfare while Chickhawk holidays in the Mother Country and plays at skirmish off the Kyber

  21. …implying that Mr Abbott was making a serious charge against Ms Gillard based on a misunderstanding.

    The charge is all that will be remembered, not whether it had any substance to it (see also: the “serious criminal matter” line – which came to nothing – that overtook the leaking of Opposition costings during the election campaign).

    Same as how Opposition questions from Question Time – each one a mini-political speech in itself – are all that’s replayed, inviting the impression that they are totally unanswerable and devastating, and have left the government sitting on the Treasury benches in stunned, shocked silence at being so ruthlessly exposed.

    Coorey’s information that Gillard didn’t leak the story to him will be dismissed as mere detail, if mentioned at all.

    In an alternative universe, what would come out of this was that Abbott lies so easily – as he cheerfully confessed himself – but when he’s caught out in one (as he was with the “jet lag” myth) he turns nasty and vicious, trying to blame the whistleblower (see also: that “look” he gave the 4-Corners reporter last week when she asked him about phoney costings, and the “look” he gave Tony Jones when exposed to be lying about visiting Cardinal Pell).

    But that’s in the alternative universe.

  22. Robb is really on to this strong AUD:
    [Aussie parity with $US a ‘penalty’, says opposition October 11, 2010 – 8:03AM

    The Australian dollar’s trajectory toward parity with the US dollar a reflection of bad economic management by the government, the coalition says…

    Interest rates were higher than they should be because our major competitors were artificially holding their currencies down, Mr Robb said today.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/aussie-parity-with-us-a-penalty-says-opposition-20101011-16ee0.html

    It is way too early for me to try to figure out what that second sentence actually means…but everything bad happening to you? That’s Gillard’s fault

  23. Gillard:
    I call you here this morning to address the serious allegations levelled against me by Mr Abbott, and dutifully reported, as always, by Mr Franklin in The Australian. Mr Abbott has called into question my character and the integrity of the highest office in this land. Mr Hartcher of the Fairfax press has confirmed neither I nor my office leaked the story about Mr Abbott’s refusal to join me in Afghanistan.

    Lets get the facts straight. I sought to offer the troops a show of bipartisanship. Mr Abbott refused. When questioned, he offered jet lag as a reason. The controversy was all of his own making. When asked, I simply made the comment that Mr Abbott’s sleep and travel arrangements are up to him.

    Mr Abbott wants to play gutter politics, but the electorate deserve better than that. I ask that Mr Abbott and Mr Franklin apologise.

    [OK, OK she hasnt said this, but I wish she would]

  24. Finns went –

    USD is “safe” because it is a de facto “world currency” where it is held and hoarded by the punters all the way up to Nations. There is no alternative.

    As long as the holders of USD’s are OK with their *investment* being decreased in value very rapidly. When, IF they get their *investment* back the proceeds will buy a lot less.

    USD safe is a myth, same as *buy and hold* in the sharemarket – but hey people can do as they wish. The AUD is fine for me anyway.

  25. I dont know about anyone else but I think something is going on within the coalition ranks. Last week while Abbott was away we had Hockey come out and say something about the party being at odds with Abbott over the IR laws. Now today we see in the papers that the coalition lied about getting their costings checked, and Hockey is getting the blame.

    And Tony Abbott has the gall to say Gillard deals out low bastardry.

  26. From Laocoon above:

    And Brian Loughnane aint going to take one for Hockey either…in fact, this looks like a classic hospital pass…

    “Asked to explain the discrepancy between the letters he had signed and the claims made by his treasury spokesman, Mr Loughnane said yesterday ”you’ll have to ask Joe why he said what he said”.

    Via a statement Mr Hockey said he had used the word audited ”as would be understood in laymen’s terms”. ”

    Well Joe, what is a layman’s understanding of an “audited statement” and “going to jail”?

    Actually Joe, can you tell me a layman’s understanding of “misleading and deceptive conduct”?

    How could Hockey possibly have designs on the leadership? The only way I can see it happening if is the Liberals think that Abbott is taking the right approach, but they need someone who can lie with a bit more bluster.

    “Laymen’s terms”! That’s a ripper. I’d love to be audited in “laymen’s terms”.

    “You’re very good at addition, sir, so I think we an assume everything is in order. Have a good day.”

  27. Abbott’s low bastardry comments reveal he is close to the edge. A few journo questions and a few jetlag taunts in parliament and he may explode

  28. So close Tony and yet so far 😀

    [
    If that was the case it goes a great deal towards explaining why Abbott, almost off-handedly, offered Wilkie a billion dollars for a new Hobart hospital. Wilkie was so shocked at Abbott’s casual profligacy he went with Gillard’s much more fiscally responsible bid of $300 million through the COAG process.

    It might have been at precisely that moment – when Wilkie dudded him – that Abbott lost the Prime Ministership – and recognised that this was so.

    Windsor continues: “There was real change in attitude from the second week from Tony. Whether the strategy had changed or whether he suddenly realised: “Look this could be my shot at Prime Minister … might be a difficult Parliament … hung Parliament … not too keen on it, but I could still be boss.”

    “There was a very different second week for Tony Abbott.”
    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/39886.html

  29. ANDREW – Agree.

    The average punter’s view will be:

    1. They all lie including Tony Abbott;
    2. So he’s calling the kettle black;
    3. The only thing this really reveals is that he’s lost is bottle, has no character and (if the story is true) is easily tricked.

    Like I said: death-rattle.

  30. Kezza – the realisation of being still the opposition is just really sinking in for the libs.

    Robb wants to be shadow Treasurer, but he cannot add up. Joe just wants to be first to get to the pie shop.

    Abbotts outburst amounts to a spoilt child rolling in the dirt screaming his head off
    because Julia *made* him tell a dumb lie and make him look a goose, again.

    Get used to it libs, much much more coming your way 🙂

  31. [Abbotts outburst amounts to a spoilt child rolling in the dirt screaming his head off
    because Julia *made* him tell a dumb lie and make him look a goose, again.]

    is there a link Dave to what tony has been saying, is this , this morning.

  32. [ AUD is not a “safe” currency, it is heavily traded and speculated.

    USD is “safe” because it is a de facto “world currency” where it is held and hoarded by the punters all the way up to Nations. There is no alternative.]

    Yep, ever since the $A was floated, it’s been a cork bobbing in the ocean. There’s not much the Australian govt can do to control its value. The US Fed Reserve is frantically printing money, so the US$ is in free-fall.

  33. @ Dave I hope so.

    They have not taken it very well at all. Just listened to sky of Tony talking to some UK sky journo while he was over there. He wants to be PM he said that to the UK guy and called their current government strong in a hung parliament situation and ours weak in a hung parliament situation.

  34. PBers
    Popped in for a peep.
    Don’t email ABC. Ring them & give em a serve.
    Let’s hope Red Kerry gets stuck into this.
    Gotta go!
    🙂

  35. kakuru went –

    Yep, ever since the $A was floated, it’s been a cork bobbing in the ocean. There’s not much the Australian govt can do to control its value. The US Fed Reserve is frantically printing money, so the US$ is in free-fall.

    AUD moves as it should – it *floats* and by doing so is an automatic shock absorber.

    It goes up in good times when the economy is doing well and the world wants what we are exporting. A high AUD reduces the need (not eliminates) for higher interest rates because it moderates inflation.

    During times of economic weakness the value of the AUD drops which assists the export sector. During the 1980’s there was much said of the J-curve which was said to describe the effect on exports as the currency weakened.

    The US is having to try to weaken their currency atm to get that same effect and also because they are unable to repay their debts in an expensive USD.

    So USD has to be weakened by QE or monitisation (printing money – in *lay terms*) and they hope by inflation as soon as they create it.

    But either way they are deliberately debasing their currency – the last thing they want is for it to float.

  36. [47 Dee
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 9:37 am | Permalink
    PBers
    Popped in for a peep.
    Don’t email ABC. Ring them & give em a serve.
    Let’s hope Red Kerry gets stuck into this.
    Gotta go!]

    what has the abc been saying this morning has i have banned my self from ever watching or listening to them till the become our abc again, i am not up with it. i read transcrips there when i have to but that about it.

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