Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. [The Hundred Years war went from 1336 to 1453 between Engalnd and France. That’s almost as long as 2002 to 2007.]

    And I bet the English had less boaties than this current government.

  2. [Most war torn years in history? So 1939-1945 was just a warm up was it? What was that about truth and logic]

    leave him alone guys, you know that liberals get their history only from approved sources like keith windshuttle.

  3. GeeWizz isn’t even trying to hide his inner Toothy.

    He really does love it here – he keeps coming back and back and back and back.

  6. Lisa Forrest said wtte that Gillard was an astute and competitive person, and Abbott’s words will only galvanise her. Then Roy Masters said wtte that she is like Keating “I will do you slowly”!

  7. [Truthy, Labor’s boats policies are working just fine! More boatpeople arrived in NZ under a tory PM than in Australia!]

    Source please

  9. [And I bet the English had less boaties than this current government.]

    Alright, fine, you can have longbowmen firing at you, we’ll tolerate foreigners in our neighbourhood, as you clearly have the better deal.

    You probably thought the part where that “uppity bitch” Joan of Arc got burned at the stake was the best part of the 100 years war.

  13. what is it with comments on this site about how the government has to get tough with journalists? What does this mean at a practical level? Everyone’s got their preferred speech they’d like to see Julia deliver, the slap down, the verbal head butt… I get that it’s spleen-venting because journos piss the people on this site off so much, but it is becoming rather repetitive.

    No offence to the people generating all these wonderful putdowns about our truly remarkable fourth estate, but this site desperately needs a good political crisis! (I’d put the damn wink in here if I’d figured it out yet – Rua – you’re a generous soul – could you point me in the right, or left, direction?)

  14. [Fletcher were elected at the same time. Yet we never see Fletcher in the media, ]

    I’ve seen him on SKY a few times of late

  21. Fletcher wrote a book on telecommunications prior to entering Parliament in which he basically endorsed the policy direction of the Labor Government.

    The Libs put him up during the election to sell the found objects policy they currently have. I don’t think he was happy.

  24. Afghan row shows Gillard ‘not fit to be PM’

    The trouble with that headline is that it, in making the word “shows” definitive, it rests on the assumption that Gillard is in the wrong, and shies away only from the extent of the wrong.

    The upshot of which is that they’re editorialising within the headline. They’re also endorsing “not fit to be PM” as a valid criticism, one which deserves an airing.

    What you won’t find, of course, is a headline which reads:

    Afghan row shows Abbott ‘not fit to be Opposition Leader’.

    Even though that’s easily as valid a statement, and it wouldn’t be hard to find a Labor MP ready to supply it.

  26. Darren Laver @ 975

    You have hit on to what I believe is why the ABC is increasingly becoming a joke and alienating loyal viewers/listeners such as myself.
    The board and some Journalists (Barrie Cassidy for example) have been spooked by years of Liberal Party and News Ltd claims of left wing bias and now will go out of their way to provide ‘balance’ by offering up such tripe as Bolt and Akerman. This cowardice also sees many ABC radio hosts talking to a News Ltd journo about any political issue. This approach almost feeds into a sentiment that the ABC is full of lefties by implying that for a ‘balanced’ assessment these shows have to speak to an ‘impartial’ News Ltd journo.

  27. [Source please]

    Yes Truthy, that’s right! More asylum seekers arrived in NZ in the last year under the control of a tory PM than in Aust under a Labor government.

    How do we know?

    Because Bowen made that statement on Q&A which went unchallenged by his tory counterpart. Also there were 200,000 asylum seekers which arrived in Canada in the same period.

    The Question that I will ask you Truthy is – do you believe Australia should pull its fair share of weight when it comes to accepting asylum seekers, or do you believe that we should be considered as a racist nation to the eyes of the rest of the world?

  30. GeeWizz @ 948

    (Shy voice.) Hello. I’m a robot, too. I have not been programmed to destroy, yet.

    Have a nice day and an eruptive night.

  35. [Pollytics | 58 seconds ago
    If young men in sport reflect society – we are all well and truly up shit creek #qanda]

    [Pollytics | 59 seconds ago
    Breweries sponsoring the arts – that would explain that plague of yobbo Opera singers in inner city nightclubs #qanda]

    Poss is in fine form again!

  36. [Hello. I’m a robot, too. I have not been programmed to destroy, yet.]

    Speaking of robots, watched a rerun of Alien last night – still a great film in its genre.

  37. [Turned off Q and A. Hate listening to people go on about sport, like it’s a divine endevour…]

    I turned it off months ago – and sport was least of my worries on that discredited program!

  46. Well good old News Ltd have run three to four Newspolls over the last few weeks and now finally they get a “50-50er” and then they decide release it. Well done chaps. Yawn.

    Pass me your tinfoil hat, Bushfire!

  48. Well they have gone from sport to Affie-gate. Kelly O’dwyer whinging about Julia, accusing her turning affi-gate into a political point-scoring.

  50. For info,

    The Masters dynasty: Is one of the best and spans three generations. Olga Masters was a suburban journalist who went on to become a respected author publishing five books with Queensland University Press and had six children who work in the media. Her oldest son Roy Masters is a successful sports journalist with the SMH and married to ABC broadcaster Elaine Canty. Chris Masters is the best and longest serving Four Corners reporter, while the Quentin Masters now runs a prosperous film company in London making commercials and movies such as “The Stud” and Ian Masters runs a national public radio show out of Los Angeles. Sue Masters was the head of drama at the ABC before falling out with Jonathon Shier and is now with Channel Ten. Deb Masters was a producer of the ABC Federation series with Paul Kelly and now works on the 7.30 Report. Roy’s son Sean is a copywriter for 2GB while Chris’s daughter Clare works as a journalist for Courier Press.

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