The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 44 per cent (up 3.5 per cent) for Labor, 38.5 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 12 per cent (down 1 per cent) for the Greens. Morgan has wisely resumed using preference flows from the previous election rather than respondent-allocated preferences for its headline figure, and is now using the results from the 2010 rather than the 2007 election, not that it makes any measurable difference.
I suppose the bottom line is that the capitalist system in its current form is not working. There has to be a change in the system that works better overall.
sorry BK 😉
The Finnigans@1182
Check out David Bassanese’s – Market Strategist Column on Page 49 of the weekend AFR
Agree totally with the above comment. Inter Market relationships do however provide explanation.
[What do they actually produce? ]
nappin, they produce a lot of QUANs and Spreadsheets
the irony of Richard Face, then my local member, was that his first name was John. He chose to refer to himself as Richard
Generalisation, victoria, but I think capitalism works, free market anarchy does not. Note, I define capitalism as having rules and regulations, just like war.
nappin
agreed. My point being that the system at present does not have the checks and balances required to keep it from tipping over.
nappin
I refer in particular to the US system and the regulations currently lacking therein.
No “it’s profit taking” does not mean that the market has no idea!
It is very common that when the market has risen on consecutive days to then sell where some negative data is reported to the market. I have done it, and profited, many many times.
victoria@1196
I agree with most of what you are saying above Vic. But the US is basically run in the interests of BIG MONEy and the top 1% of Yanks.
The other end of the scale for example was the body of a US Green Beret Soldier returned home last week after 8 tours of duty in Afganistan. He was deployed back there again and again until he was killed – then he was was able to go home for good.
Dee
Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 at 9:50 pm | Permalink
my say
so no takers for DEE s question i dont blame you, scary stuff.
“I have the most basic understanding of the financial world.
The topic is sounding a bit grim ”
treu , there is a risk of a double dip Good news is we is finance strongest of major econamies with 6% debt gdp , reasonable inflaton and interst rates , and growth , and our Banks is strong and our Debt clear in 3 yrs
US and Europe not flash with high debt and US unemplo 9.6% , and there is risk of flow on if problams arise again , but US banks now much strong than pre GFC due to bailout , and Asia espec China mostly good news Then you got plus that with GFC experiense both US or EU got self interst to avoid a repeat
dave
as I said earlier, I hope there is a hell for those who have created and benefitted in these current situations, at the expense of the poor souls that pay dearly in every way.
[1192
The Finnigans
so those peeps buying the aussie as a hedge currency are wrong?]
The monetary authorities are doing their best to keep the global economy with unlimited credit. (It really is a good time to own an insolvent European bank. You will not fail, but will be borne along by a torrent of cash.)
At the same time, a lot of export-reliant economies are trying to devalue their currencies, the better to attract capital, sustain exports, incomes and employment. But obviously not all currencies can depreciate in relation to each other at the same time. So we are seeing two things happening: excess cash is spilling into demand for commodities and for currencies that are not being artificially cheapened. So metal, energy and food prices are climbing (even though final demand is still weak) and the value of some selected currencies is climbing, including the AUD.
Is this good for us? Probably, at least for a while. But in the long run, the limitless creation of credit combined with dodgy currency markets and a deeply flawed banking system can only mean one thing: another great shock.
[does not have the checks and balances required to keep it from tipping over.]
And here’s the rub identified in so many PB (and Pure Poison and Possum C) discussions – the Govts that are empowered to implement such balance are so heavily influenced by the organisations that profit from the status quo, that even when a heavy lesson is given (GFC) we still do not get the regulations we need. This occurs in finance, media and life.
… well that’s a depressing comment 😡
On the brighter side – at least we have it reasonably OK here in Oz. It’s not perfect, and the Coalition are doing their damndest to “fix” it, but it worked.
nappin
yes it is depressing, but extremely frustrating. The US gives the illusion of a democracy, but what people really ultimately vote for is the same side of the coin. Now that is really depresssing. China is not a democracy, but at the very least the people are not being deceived.
nappin
Presently in Australia, all is pretty good. Apart from the usual issues of climate change policy and environment issues such as the Murray Darling Basin, housing costs are out of balance with real wages and the economy. I do not see how this imbalance is going to be rectified anytime soon.
Ron
[but US banks now much strong than pre GFC due to bailout]
Not sure that they are necessarily that strong. Aside from the weak real economy, I suspect that the Fed is keen to keep interest rates low to help banks – rather similar dynamic to the banks in Japan.
Funnily enough, when I was there in the late 90s/early’00s, lots of Americans came to Japan and said wtte Japanese banks needed to take medicine like US S&L crisis in the early 90s, have quick adjustment, not government bailouts. Now of course, when the bank crisis is in the US, they seem to like bailouts.
I agree with your comment on 1179 – the interplay with China is fascinating. In a longer historical perspective, there could be parallels between US and China today and EU/UK and the US in the early C20th, when US became the dominant economy
Laocoon
I think the economist Niall Ferguson has used the term “Chiamerica”
Next dumb question.
If the RBA trades, they can presumably win or lose money.
How much is it their job to make money and how much is it to provide stability and keep the wheels of the economy running as smoothly as possible?
And what happens when there is a conflict between the interests of the RBA and the interests of the economy? Where does their primary allegiance lie?
[China is not a democracy, but at the very least the people are not being deceived.]
Vic, China has never had democracy. it has always been ruled by those who had the Mandate from Heaven.
victoria, as Dave said:
[the US is basically run in the interests of BIG MONEy and the top 1% of Yanks]
I don’t agree the Chinese people are not being decieved. It’s just a different form of deception. I agree that China needs a different political system to a country like the US, based on a need for greater controls in some areas that a democracy may not allow. At the same time, China, like the US, goes too far with the system it has, andlike the US, needs to be more democratic, in a true sense.
Laocoon
agree , meant non investment type banks
yes keeping interest rates low is helping them Banks , and playing with a lower dollar is dangerous long term as they got nothing to back it up with
lack of FULL regulation over whole US sector is a problem
[Tone still getting bagged about his ‘jetlag’ in the news updates on channel 10.]
ABC News 24 also mentioned the jetlag thing again, but in a more polite way. Overall, it was balanced with lots of pictures of Tone, but also pictures of Jules as well.
nappin
I am all for a true democracy in every country of the world. That would be IDEAL!
victoria
Yes, I had forgotten that – is an interesting expression; personally, I think the jury is still out on Ferguson…more of a historian I would say
You blokes want to see the entire global financial system collapse?
Yeah, well I want to see the globe warm to the point where the east coast of Turnbull’s seat is under water. 😛
More skin 11.5 months of the year to boot. 😈
Lao – another reason US interest rates must be kept low is so that the huge interest bill on government bonds is able to be paid. But the Fed will own most of the bonds soon if QE2 is announced at the November meeting.
The chinese have already lost over $100 m with the drop in the USD via its exposure to US Bonds.
Laocoon
Actually, I am not sure if I generally value Ferguson’s opinion to tell you the truth.
Sent a tweet to Kevin Rudd’s twitter, wishing him well on his trip and suggested he not look into the ice maiden bisho’s eyes on the plane…harm can come to a young man doing that!!!!!!!
Diogenes
Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
“Next dumb question.
If the RBA trades, they can presumably win or lose money. ”
i just luv your dumb Q’s
RBA is a Mr Smoothie , tho Costello managed to lose a few billion ( as worldest great tresuer)
[Yeah, well I want to see the globe warm to the point where the east coast of Turnbull’s seat is under water]
Dammit – that’d make my house an island.
Thinks…. hmmm …. not a bad idea.
David
did you really do that?
Vic,
I am also all for a true love in every couple of the world. That would be IDEAL!
The Finnigans
What a soppy sentiment!
sure did, he will see the humor 🙂
David
Too funny!
Ron
[lack of FULL regulation over whole US sector is a problem]
Which goes back to nappin’s (at 1214) depressing, but I think in finance anyway, reasonably accurate assessement…the industry is so strong it is able to prevent regulation that might be good for longer term overall benefit, at expense of short term (and more to the point, individual) losses
I read some economic-historian article a year or so ago, name/author of which I have now forgotten, describing the issue of developed economies being in the thrall of the major special-interest elites which prevents change, leading to decline…US financial industry was current example, but there were a few over time
Vic, pigs also fly , he he he
Diogenes@1220
RBA making money from Fx trading is a side benefit, not the main game. They contribute Billions on average to the budget yearly, but this is by virtue of the size of their operations.
Its charter says –
It is the duty of the Reserve Bank Board … to ensure that the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia and that the powers of the Bank … are exercised in such a manner as … will best contribute to:
(a)
the stability of the currency of Australia;
(b)
the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and
(c)
the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.
http://www.openaustralia.org/debate/?id=2010-03-15.114.2
[i just luv your dumb Q’s]
Amigo Ronnie , that is our Diog
Ron
[RBA is a Mr Smoothie , tho Costello managed to lose a few billion ( as worldest great tresuer) ]
Someone just said that the RBA is independent of the govt so how can Swan or Cossie take credit or blame for what the RBA does?
plus the rba tends to buy low or sell high and its interventions usually influence movement the other way..so they make money on the trades mostly
David
I wonder if they sit in each others company on the trip? Somehow me thinks they will sit at opposite ends of the plane.
Laocoon
From an article dave linked to earlier, the following quote:
[The financial crisis was a product of our irrational reaction, which protected crony capitalism rather than capitalism.]
I like that – crony capitalism.
Dio
Not directly on the RBA, but there was a bit of view in some finance industry circles back in the late 90s with the Asian currency crisis that there was karma involved with respect to Bank Negara of Malaysia, as it was said to be one of the biggest speculators in the FX markets, and subsequently got its comuppence (though I wasnt a first hand observer in all that…”it was said”…)
[I am all for a true democracy in every country of the world. That would be IDEAL!]
True democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for lunch.
I think the representative system (is that what it is?), as deeply flawed as it may be, is a better idea.
Victoria great thing about Kev he has wonderful humor, have often sent him emails and tweets, he has replied twice, each with a big 🙂 I have immense respect for him and he will do us proud as FA Minister….long term, my bet he will be UN Sec General.
Am I the only one who thinks it too bizarre that our economy is the envy of the western world, low unemployment, low interest rates, no recession, projected strong growth and the ALP almost lost the election around the issue of- the economy??
I have no idea why Labor has not (a) pointed out the deficiencies of the Costello-Howard economy or (b) highlighted their achievements. THey have learnt nothing from their near-death election experience, it seems
Thomas Friedman
Failure of US Political System – New York Times 9/10/10
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/opinion/10friedman.html