Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor

The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5, from primary votes of 44 per cent (up 3.5 per cent) for Labor, 38.5 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 12 per cent (down 1 per cent) for the Greens. Morgan has wisely resumed using preference flows from the previous election rather than respondent-allocated preferences for its headline figure, and is now using the results from the 2010 rather than the 2007 election, not that it makes any measurable difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,287 comments on “Morgan: 55.5-44.5 to Labor”

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  1. [The US arms suppliers (ie the child killers) may be doing well, but tell that to the US taxpayers who are broke and many have lost most of their retirement investments, their jobs and too many their homes.]
    I just wonder how much it has cost Iraq & now the Afghanistan government in $ terms.
    Whatever happened to the impounded Iraqi gold reserves?

  3. 1104

    I seem to remember a NSW Labor MP by the name of RICHARD FACE, member for Charlestown. I believe, prior to entering parliament, he was a police officer. No doubt he was able to make many arrests for offensive language, if his name had been known!

  4. [Don’t we have any control over the value of our currency? Is it purely market-based?]

    Dioh, where have you been since Dec 1983?

    [In December 1983 the government made an historic economic change with the decision to float the Australian dollar, rather than have its value tied to another currency or fixed by government regulation.]

  5. Seriously. I wish there really was a hell waiting for Bush and his cronies. Pure evil personified.

    I maintain that the Bush years were a success for those in power at the time. They achieved the outcomes as set out. Transfer the wealth of the treasury to private hands. Mind you, the last act of the GFC played out just before the Bush term was up. How can anyone forget Hank Paulson asking for 700 billion dollars with no strings attached. Yet, the US get a Tea Party revolt when Obama takes over the leadership. How can these people be so brainwashed.

  9. [Diogs the value of a currency is determined by the strength of an economy and their interest rates.]

    and, mostly, by the Traders and Speculators

  10. one further thing is that booming economy is doing well for us but we are reaching capacity constraints…this can mean undersupply of labour…forcing up wages and prices….also means demand for resources which pushes up prices…..infrastructure bottlenecks also an issue…can lead to inflation…..so thats why reserve has its hands on int rate trigger

  11. [Abbott wanted to join Aussie troops in action. He told the soldiers that he had requested to go out on missions with them, but Army chiefs were not keen on the idea.]
    Abbott wanted to go and they didnt let him? C’mon guys
    The Army chiefs obviously torn between a small sacrifice for the greater good and keeping the soldiers safe ( ‘hey mister Taliban were over here’ ping ping ping )

  13. Centre and dave

    Thanks for that. This economics stuff is so intertwined that moving one variable up or down seems to have so many possible effects of positive and negative feedback loops that its very hard to work out what’s going on.

  14. Diogenes@1146

    Finns

    Don’t we have any control over the value of our currency? Is it purely market-based?

    AUD is *about* as close to a floating currency as there is around atm. So WE do not “control it”. It “Floats”.

    One of the most highly traded world currencies – in 4 trading days on average – the equivalent of our annual GDP is traded in AUD *bets*.

    When RBA is active in the market, which is not that often, they just try to *smooth* the moves, not determine the direction or trend. They try to reduce large drops etc to more *orderly* ones.

    Currently they are probably quitely selling AUD building up foreign currency reserves for times when they need to smooth out falls in AUD.

    BTW RBA currency trading contributes Billions to the budget. Its a great spinner….

  16. Finns et al

    [ Diogs the value of a currency is determined by the strength of an economy and their interest rates.

    and, mostly, by the Traders and Speculators]

    Do the Government trade and speculate in the dollar?

  17. [I seem to remember a NSW Labor MP by the name of RICHARD FACE, member for Charlestown.]
    The Labor man for Groom was Chris Meibusch pronounced ‘my bush’. Whenever anyone asked, ‘What’s Meibusch up to or where is Meibusch?’. 🙂
    I was very tempted.

  19. The Finnigans
    Posted Sunday, October 10, 2010 at 9:21 pm | Permalink

    ‘shouldn’t we be thinking of devaluing our currency? ‘

    “Diog, who is going to do the devaluation? ours currency is floated.”

    Amigo Finns , do not xpose diog on his lack of knowlege on finance , on same nite his FA deficit knowlege is also exposed

  22. Dio

    In a nutshell, the economy is going very strongly, there is a resources boom, interest rates are (relatively) high = strong AUD

    What would the benefit be of debasing the AUD? Pretty primed for inflation here if that were to happen

  25. Diogenes@1163

    Centre and dave

    Thanks for that. This economics stuff is so intertwined that moving one variable up or down seems to have so many possible effects of positive and negative feedback loops that its very hard to work out what’s going on.

    Dio – intermarket relationships is fascinating stuff – stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities – all inter-related.

    Now is one hell of time to be witnessing the way it is playing out

  26. So the RBA trades the AUD but doesn’t really try to change the value, just “smooths” out the bumps. But presumably they could try to influence its value but won’t for the reasons dave has mentioned.

    I think I’ve got it now.

  29. Laocoon

    There is a suggestion in US to create inflation , and inflate there way out of basket

    Tho , a 14 trillion debt and zip interest rates and then trying to print money in part to get dollar down (for exports) seems a dead end Chinese will outlast them

  30. #1139 Ron

    now you’ve been caught out on your deceit by actual quotes , you Greens lot CHANGE goal posts by trying to dend such stupid words and think youse know more about FA than Hillary/Obama and Julia/Rudd

    The Labor way is obviously sucking up to the Commies!

  32. There is no rhyme and reason that AUD should have shot up from 90c to near parity in the last six weeks.

    If anybody tries to tell you they know, they are lying. just like experts on the stock market when they say “It’s profit taking”, it means they have no idea.

  33. BK

    I happened to see an excerpt of that Kelly O”Dwyer on Insiders saying something during the week re Julia. I think she is catching up to the Indi Puff Adder. Truly scary stuff!

  34. [There is no rhyme and reason that AUD should have shot up from 90c to near parity in the last six weeks. ]
    But there is for the USD, the Pound and the Euro to tank.

  35. [If anybody tries to tell you they know, they are lying. just like experts on the stock market when they say “It’s profit taking”, it means they have no idea.]

    Finns

    so those peeps buying the aussie as a hedge currency are wrong?

    also the super funds have a ratio to maintain

    viz as shares go up and up, other avenues are also pursued

  37. Dee@1178

    So do Pbers think the shite is once again going to hit the fan globally?
    Depression?

    Dee – I hope not. Self interest hopefully will save the day, but the yanks and in Europe there are huge problems.

    If the shit hits the fan, the solutions may end up almost as bad.

    Things just keep popping up eg

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/janet-tavakoli-biggest-fraud-history-capital-markets

    Its a bit of a read but an example of things bubbling away.

  38. [BK

    I happened to see an excerpt of that Kelly O”Dwyer on Insiders saying something during the week re Julia. I think she is catching up to the Indi Puff Adder. Truly scary stuff!]
    victoria
    I did say several days ago that KO’D is challenging the puff adder for the title of MOLL (Most Odious Liberal Lady).

  39. BK
    [BK, you promised….

    Sorry nappin, I must have an unfortunate affliction!]
    typo there BK??
    [I must have an unfortunate affection?]
    👿

  42. [so those peeps buying the aussie as a hedge currency are wrong?]

    Gus, as its name implies, they hedge either ways and try to make money either ways. they really dont care which way as long as they make money.

  43. Finns, people who accuse economists and traders of having no idea… truly, they are the ones who have no idea!

    Diogs, the government or the reserve bank or anyone can trade in currencies for whatever reason. Btw Costello lost a fortune trading in gold, the media remained silent!

  45. [1142
    victoria

    What has happened with the Iraq War and Afghanistan is pretty simple really. The taxpayer funded these wars………]

    Well, not really. Bush initiated war in Iraq, but cut taxes at the same time. They say this was the first time the US failed to finance a war with a tax increase. The wars were funded by borrowing. As yet it is not clear who will actually carry the financial cost of the wars: taxpayers or bond-holders, mainly the being the Governments of Japan, China and the oil-exporters.

    One thing is clear. The US Republican Party has been captured by fantasists, who believe it is not only possible but desirable to cut taxes and wage wars while cutting both public spending and public debt all at the same time. The US is close to becoming a completely dysfunctional system.

  46. dave

    the banks were bailed out. Since then, they are making more money than ever and paying out huge bonuses. Why did the govt not do something about people’s mortgages instead. Instead, millions are losing their homes, their jobs and the stimulus to kick start the economy is not enough. Meanwhile Wall Street it is business as usual. Something has got to give.

  47. my say
    [so no takers for DEE s question i dont blame you, scary stuff.]
    I have the most basic understanding of the financial world.
    The topic is sounding a bit grim & we are lucky to have contributors that do have an understanding of how markets work. That’s why I asked the question.

  48. Mick S

    It is called diplomacy , with a velvet hand as you can see from Hillarys full text

    Of couse one can make a feel good insult , Mr Lieu will stays in jail , whats encore..our 3 Hornets , or one can try using world stage to nudge , allow save face and perhaps get th guy released Only latter approach works

  49. briefly

    strictly speaking money most likely borrowed from China funded these wars, but the US still has to foot the bill somehow.

  50. [they really dont care which way as long as they make money.]
    Finns, then you get into the discussion about what value they bring to the economy. What do they actually produce? Does the money they earn bring anything meaningful into (for example) our GDP?

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