Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA

Today’s West Australian carries a Westpoll survey of federal voting intention, with the usual small sample (404 respondents) and large margin of error (approaching 5 per cent). The poll has the Coalition with a two-party lead of 52-48, which if accurate would amount to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labor – a swing which would snare Labor the front-line seats of Hasluck, Canning and Swan if uniform. The poll shows Labor’s primary vote at an unlikely sounding 39 per cent compared with just 31.3 per cent at the election, with the Coalition on 47 per cent (50.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens on 10 per cent (13.3 per cent). Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless narrowed slightly since the pre-election Westpoll, from 47-36 to 47-38. A well-framed set of options on “satisfaction with election outcome” shows 20 per cent professing themselves “quite happy with the compromises needed to form government”, 42 per cent opted for “not really happy but better than another election” while 35 per cent are “unhappy, want another poll”. Breakdowns by voting intention tell a predictable story.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 51-49 for the third week running, with Labor’s primary vote down a point to 41 per cent, the Coalition steady on 44 per cent and the Greens steady on 8 per cent. A question on most important issues in choosing how to vote turns up the economy, education and health as the front-runners, with asylum seekers, national security and population growth joining water security at the rear of the pack. The Liberals have substantial leads as the best party to handle various economic questions, with Labor leading most of the rest. On the question of Afghanistan, 49 per cent want the troops brought home, 13 per cent want the number increased and 24 per cent believe the current number is right.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,211 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to federal Coalition in WA”

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  1. At least we didn’t have hordes of boatpeople then. You guys are useless at running anything, I wouldn’t put you in charge of the chook raffle.

    truthy back to what he does best.

    Stupidity !

  3. [2. Abbott nearly took out Gillies and fell 1 seat short in their first term, a historical first]

    Howard lost far more seats than Gillard after his first term, and suffered a much larger swing. He even lost a minister (Warwick Smith).

    How soon we forget.

  4. [GeeWizz
    Posted Monday, October 11, 2010 at 10:42 am | Permalink
    how does it feel to come so close to winning and then losing in such a spectacular manner?

    1. Abbott took out a first term Prime Minister before the election, a historical first

    2. Abbott nearly took out Gillies and fell 1 seat short in their first term, a historical first

    Yep not too disappointed at all. Labor supporters keep telling us what a great job Labor did in their first term but thats exactly where the problem is. If you can’t admit your mistakes then you are destined to fail.]

    Every Labor person would be wise to pay attention to this. It is true that Labor had some spectacular own goals in their first term and then ran one of the most dismal campaigns in history. It made Tony Abbott electable through its own incompetence. Labor and Labor supporters need to stop defining their goals of good government as being ‘anything better than Tony Abbott’. Just because Tony Abbott is, well, Tony Abbott, it doesn’t neccessarily follow that the current Labor government is a good one.

  5. [You guys are useless at running anything, I wouldn’t put you in charge of the chook raffle.]

    No, that’s a job best suited to the Libs. Just watch Tone managing the coalition – looks like a chook raffle to me!

  6. I’m sure many of you have noticed that when you walk behind an elderly person (or couple) they seem to take up much more room because they sort of sway from side to side as they walk. Very difficult to get past, on a narrow pavement.
    I saw some footage of Abbott walking across an air port somewhere, and wondered who this odd person was, who was rocking massively from one side to the other as he waslked.
    Suddenly realised it was Abbott.
    This bike-riding must stop (or else he’s aging very fast). 😆

  8. On Labor, I am still in shock that not one single backbench MP stood up to criticise the ditching of the ETS- firstly by Rudd and secondly by Gillard. It does not suggest that they are doing a good job of representing their constituencies.

    However, there were some who stood up and criticised the mining tax. I guess it shows you that in all major parties, it is $$$ over people and the environment everytime.

  11. [Abbott took out a first term Prime Minister before the election, a historical first]

    Wow, the truth must hurt so bad that you cannot speak it. Abbott did not do anything of the sort. Rudd’s name and character were dragged through the mud by the media in perhaps the most concerted attack on a sitting PM this country has seen in a generation.

    Without the media bending inside out to abet him (and let him off the hook many times) Abbott would have been finished long ago.

    And that’s the truth, alien though it is to your sort.

  12. [ On Labor, I am still in shock that not one single backbench MP stood up to criticise the ditching of the ETS- firstly by Rudd and secondly by Gillard. It does not suggest that they are doing a good job of representing their constituencies. ]

    It was my understanding that in the outer ‘burbs those very same constituencies were giving their representatives hell over the prospect of an ETS.

  13. Joe Hocks:

    [they have certified our numbers based on all the information we have provided them; they have legal obligations and legal risks]

    [if the fifth-biggest accounting firm in Australia signs off on our numbers it is a brave person to start saying there are accounting tricks. I tell you it is audited. This is an audited statement]

  15. [He had nothing to do with it. Keep dreaming old son.]

    Okay so PLEASE EXPLAIN to the group why Rudd got rolled.

    You Labor hacks are in complete friggin denial. You keep trying to pretend Rudd wasn’t rolled. You keep trying to pretend nothing happened. You keep trying to pretend you didn’t almost lose the election.

    You guys are in complete DENIAL. Did Rudd get rolled due to complete incompetence? Come on, tell us what it was!

  16. [I tell you it is audited. This is an audited statement]

    Which reminds me of:

    [No no he’s not dead, he’s, he’s restin’! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn’it, ay? Beautiful plumage!]

  17. “Heres Tony in Afghanistan.

    No Camo… No bullet proof vest. No Helmet. Not ducking for the nearest shelter…..”

    You only need such protection in war zones like the Federal Liberal Party Room.

  18. [Okay so PLEASE EXPLAIN to the group why Rudd got rolled.

    You Labor hacks are in complete friggin denial. You keep trying to pretend Rudd wasn’t rolled. You keep trying to pretend nothing happened. You keep trying to pretend you didn’t almost lose the election.

    You guys are in complete DENIAL. Did Rudd get rolled due to complete incompetence? Come on, tell us what it was!]

    Are you following your weader and frothing at the mouth? Now if you can just get the orangutan walk worked out, you too can be a tone-looalike!

  20. [Are you following your weader and frothing at the mouth? Now if you can just get the orangutan walk worked out, you too can be a tone-looalike!]

    Still waiting for you Labor hacks to tell us why Rudd got rolled…

    Perhaps he was doing such a damn good job, they just HAD to roll him!

  21. Polls, Schmolls – it is all mere speculation. When they ‘sample’ at least half of the total population, I might sit up and take notice.

    BK – ”the great unsmuggling” had me choking on my coffee! The timing sucked but what a great laugh!

    I suspect that the real story here is what is going on behind the scenes in the Liberal Coalition ranks. The trivial garbage the Petulant Catholic Manchild usually takes great delight in throwing is half-arsed, even for Tony, his body language speaks of defeat, and I don’t think it is a post-election hangover.

    The fact that IR has even reached the ears of anyone in the press means that Tony is no longer the golden boy they raved about and infers that the rats in the ranks are reaching for their scabbards as we speak.

    I suspect that in about a month or so we will all be witness to a great unravelling and the Petulant Catholic Manchild will be left pulling the knives from out of his back.

    Now, if the MSM could only go back to the dictionary and re-discover the words ‘investigative journalism’ it may cast some light on what I suspect the real story here is.

    Now if the

  22. Joe was using the word ‘audit’ in a colloquial sense, which the public would understand as having your numbers checked.”.

    This was all known at the time. It was clear that Howarths didn’t “audit” the documents in the general accounting sense of the word. They merely checked that the columns added up to the total at the bottom, without in any way verifying if the assumptions behind the figures were well-based.

    Some journalists at Abbott’s laughingly-called “press conferences” tried to ask about the dodginess of the figures and were either

    (a) not heard because their microphones were off or turned down, or Sky and ABC-24 didn’t provide “gaggle mikes”,

    (b) were shouted down, particularly by Robb saying that not only were these costings fully audited, but that were wtte “the greatest, most well-audited set of costings in the history of Australian politics,”

    (c) Abbott would just walk off from the presser when the going got too tough.

    It wasn’t that the questions weren’t asked, at least by some journos trying to get at the truth (Tingle springs to mind as one of the most conscientious at this), but that their editors would not run the story. All we got – including most egregiously from the ABC News dept. – was “he-said/she-said”. No attempt to put the costings into context was ever taken, except by Tingle, Gittins and Colebatch in little-noticed articles back in August. Their colleagues only had to wander over to their offices to get the rundown in full as to why the costings were dodgy and why they weren’t properly audited. Yet they did not do that.

    That was the true story of the media’s incompetence (and I think, partisanship) during the election.

  23. [Okay so PLEASE EXPLAIN to the group why Rudd got rolled.]
    To quote B_G – “It is true that Labor had some spectacular own goals in their first term and then ran one of the most dismal campaigns in history. It made Tony Abbott electable through its own incompetence.”
    Abbott had little to do with Rudd’s demise and the election result other than keeping the coalition in opposition.

  24. ANDREW – Totally agree. I don’t think Julia should react at all to this (unless asked at a press conference). When your opponent is making an idiot of himself, give him the spotlight.

  26. [Still waiting for you Labor hacks to tell us why Rudd got rolled…

    Perhaps he was doing such a damn good job, they just HAD to roll him!]

    I could care less what you are waiting for, especially when you already have a twisted version of the truth.

    I’m more interested in watching more got-off-the-bike-and-now-i-walk-like-a-monkey Tone – go Tone!

  27. @blue_green/104,

    Tony’s Campaign is worst than Labor’s, it’s a copy cat of Howard’s one.

    Why don’t Coalition try something new, you know go into the unknown once in a while eh? Like Labor does with the NBN etc?

  28. Geewizz

    I think the current thesis about why he got rolled was:
    1. internal perspective. Rudd was a controlling megalomaniac and he pissed everybody off. He failed to allow his Ministers to do their jobs and the backlog of unmade decisions had paralysed the govt. His subsequent failure to manage the mining tax, pissed off some ALP heavyweights.
    2. External perspective. He ditched the ETS and subsequently in the mind of everyone stood for nothing. His mealy mouthed lack of excuses about doing so, reinforced this.

  34. george,

    I think the Libs supporters aretoo enthralled with ‘Waiting for Abbot”, a modern play about a group of malcontents waiting at a bus stop for a leader who never arrives.

  36. BH

    [Actually Joe, can you tell me a layman’s understanding of “misleading and deceptive conduct”?

    is there a chance that a Senate Committee or HoR Committee could look at this? It is definitely misleading and deceptive conduct and a business would be prosecuted for it.]
    Well, funnily enough ( ;-)), I have been motivated to look at misleading and deceptive conduct in the past, to see how it might apply to an outrage perpetrated by my esteemed local “government” [sic]. Unfortunately, it is pretty clear that it does not apply to political decisions of governments

    I think this is something better prosecuted in the court of public opinion; I dont think use of parliamentary procedure in this case is appropriate.

    (Having said that, on the legal front, I am curious how the Grech scandal is progressing; and alas, seems no action on the “office of profit under the crown” issue)

  37. SPACE KADET – Very acute. Once the air starts going out of an opposition leader (particularly a gas-bag like Tone) they’re very hard to re-inflate. Even the libs know that.

  38. Still waiting for you Labor hacks to tell us why Rudd got rolled…

    Rudd rolled himself by being the bottleneck in government processes. His office became disfunctional. It was all set out in Lenore Taylor’s article the other day.

    Gillard had Rudd’s demise put to her as a fait accompli. I believe she genuinely did NOT want to take over at that point, or perhaps any other point in the near future, but her hand was forced. You only had to see the look on her face as she left Rudd’s office to know she was severely distraught at what had just happened.

    Parliament was breaking up the next day for what everyone recognized was its final session before an election. If Rudd was going to go, it was then or never. Most of us (including me) thought he’d made it through, but we were wrong.

    Really, what happened to Rudd was not different in any serious material sense from what happened to Turnbull, or Nelson, or Gorton for that matter. The media had been running “Rudd’s Gone” stories for weeks, and then cried crocodile tears over it when it happened. There was a lot of hypocracy going around at that time, from both sides of politics.

    Rudd had boxed himself into a corner, was trying to run everything from his office, not letting ministers fend for themselves. He was saying stupid things, such as when he told Barrie Cassidy that the GFC Stimulus response was mere “context”. It saved the nation, yet Rudd wouldn’t claim that. It undermined everything he stood, and undermined everything the government stood for. He had to go, not for all the reasons given, but some of them were pretty compelling. No-one came out of it smelling of roses.

    Satisfied?

  39. [I think the Libs supporters aretoo enthralled with ‘Waiting for Abbot”, a modern play about a group of malcontents waiting at a bus stop for a leader who never arrives.]

    😆 make sure you copyright that – someone is bound to use it in a not-too-distant production.

  40. [He is lying through his teeth and making a laughing stock of himself.]

    Dave – the RBA, Treasury, Business heads and economists will be laughing at him but will the punters – or will they think once again, Labor bad managers.

    All I seemed to hear this morning was Oppn spokesmen, Bermingham, Joyce, Robb, Fifield with the same message. Labor bad on economy, water, jetlag, etc. They play that message every day.

  41. truthy and blue-green can try to polish the turd that is abbott & the libs all they
    want, but it is still a turd.

    Enjoy the next 3 years. Even if abbott gets an early election somehow, they are taking damage on a regular basis – much of it self inflicted, which is denting his standing.

    Next phase is his decline in the polls.

  43. dave way back at 48
    [AUD moves as it should – it *floats* and by doing so is an automatic shock absorber.]
    And as a current example where an economy does not have a floating currency, and therefore does not have this automatic shock absorber, consider Greece. In the old days, the drachma would have devalued/depreciated, more tourists etc etc; with the Euro price adjustment (tries to) occurs through domestic deflation – very painful and difficult

  44. Why don’t Coalition try something new, you know go into the unknown once in a while eh? Like Labor does with the NBN etc?

    Because they’re conservatives. Conservatives don’t want to change anything, by definition.

    The word “conservative” has only come to mean “right wing” by etymological processes in the last century or so. Its root meaning was “in favour of the stsus quo”, conserving what already existed.

  45. [Tones firing the Steyr Rifle should be his next election campaign billboard.

    Stop the boats? Bloody Oath We I will]

    CheezeWheeze, it could be used in all manner of policy:

    Getting the trains on time? Bloody Oath We I will! (Tone shooting at some lazy drivers)

    Getting childcare costs down? Bloody Oath We I will! (Tone shooting at some carers)

    Stopping the waste? Bloody Oath We I will! (Tone shooting a garbage bin in an office cubicle)

  46. Dave,

    Nice lot of denial there. You are still holding the view that “Abbott is crap, ergo the ALP are good”.

    The logic fails. The two factors are independent.

    I still live in hope that Gillard ‘campaigned dumb but will govern smart”. The signs are mildy positive but overall it is too early to tell.

  50. Bushfire
    [Gillard had Rudd’s demise put to her as a fait accompli. I believe she genuinely did NOT want to take over at that point, or perhaps any other point in the near future, but her hand was forced. You only had to see the look on her face as she left Rudd’s office to know she was severely distraught at what had just happened.]

    This was what I understood at the time, but as usual, the Libs’ “backstabbing” theme was picked up by the MSM and never denied by Labor.
    They really have been disturbingly weak at defending themselves.

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