Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor”

Comments Page 65 of 67
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  2. Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 3, 2010 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Ron:
    “1) “You may be surprised to hear I am not Tony Abbott (although some here seem to think I could be!). I dont agree with the view that the ALP is responsible.”

    fine , than dont know why hell i was arguing with you

    3) “No idea how many, but I hope they were all prosecuted.”

    Mod Lib , i asked abov 4 Q’s from th start , and neither Abbott nor Lib GP/Troothy could answer I knew %’s of fires and deaths had to be left because Garrett insisted on training and accred

    (Some mths later Enmy Marsupial did calcs and quatified that WAS case , which was better than my assumes based on logic)

    as for crooks on PREV 1.4 milion , applying same lobic of little pre accred and pre training to those , one can assume few were even caught No record , ws alot unregulated industry

    2) “Then why was Peter Garrett dumped? Why was Combet brought in? What where the letters from PG to Cabinet about? Why was one withheld? ”

    Peter was demoted on West minister accountability convention , aminly that an Minter Elison “Risk Report” that his Dept got 9 months earlier , his Dept did NOT fully pass onto him Missing section highlited SOME aspects of fire risk Therefore PM Rudd nor Cabinet had it either till 1 weeks before Peter demoted , thats wht

    However , Peter DID address specific fire risk issue at trady end and with training , but had he had full Report could hav done some public info advertising So Peter paid Minister pric of demotion HAD he been negligent Rudd would hav fired him

    per coroner , it did not affect 4 deaths , as they were safety/poor trady issues But So Peter paid Minister price of demotion for his Dept as he is reponsible for his Dept as a West Miniter Minister HAD he been negligent Rudd would hav fired him

  4. CW,
    Also, remember the big pension rise Kevin Rudd gave out to lift the rate of pension as a percentage of the minimum wage? He made the states including the Rann gov’t agree to refrain from taking any of it as rent rises for public housing tenants, as it wasn’t money for the state to grab.

    Well, guess what? Rann is putting pensioner’s rents up next year.

  14. Those fools at the ABC or whomever did ‘Order in the House’ still said of the SO amendment “first defeat…in 70 years”. This is supposed to be a wrap of the HoR for the week, it should be correct.

  17. CW
    re parks rally.
    Yes, if circumstances allow. The last thing that area needs is that facility bulldozed for houses.

  18. Crikey

    you replied to me , but who was nonsense you saying

    I had not even got to need of speed in 1.4 milion homes due to GFC needs , but Prof Stigler covered it well about Insulation program (and BER) , re some ‘waste’ but avoid recession via a Stimili and retianing 000, 000’s of jobs and incr of productivty (oz way) VS some ‘waste’ and a recesion with all that it involves (USA way)

  19. Puff same already happened in NSW which has lots of tricks like this. My fave is the salary packaging which the state government shares your tax savings

  20. Listening to replay of Unihinged One in parl’t.

    Not naming anyone of course but no person who pronounces government as ‘guvmint’ should be PM, especially if he was a Rhodes’ Scholar.

  24. Thanks Puff. I had mostly seen the Parliament. In days gone by. Between the Footy!

    You may dry up, George. However.

    Neither should Julia say “reiterate again”

    Ron, don’t getcha.

    Puff, do the Parks!!

  26. With Insulation of 1.4 million homes , there is diff between fact and Abbott/ MSN myth created over 4 mths of front page sensations…fire , 4 deaths etc

    During that ‘attacking’ on Govt , there was every vested interest Group (instllers , umporters , electrical , trades , Buss council etc) making “Warnings” of numerous health issues , numerous on safety , fires , standards etc in MSN and IN WRITING to Garrett

    All part of anti Labor scare campaign

    With a bilion dollar scheme ovr 1.4 million homes , of course a small % will be a problam These small % were used VS prior written ‘warning’s as evidence of Rudd/Labor incompetence ,

    and rudd’s politcal view on absolutism of such written ‘warnings’ was therefore a demoton of Peter (on Minister responsible grounds ex Minter Elison report part ommission) and a ‘mea cuppa’ saying there were mistakes (well of couse there were , a small % over 3 million homes) to kill whole MSN story for POLITCS reasons only

    that is a lot diff from fact in practice 1.4 million homes program was a success on saving jobs , incr growth in econamy , giving 1.4 homs prob 3 mill aussies more heating/cooling comfort , and reducing co2 emmissions But dare say most aussies do not think it was a success beleiving MSN , and so it cost Labor in suport and credits
    Very unfair

    suppose lesson , fight Abbott/ MSN mis storys earlier , and with more aggro

  27. You could say that the greens policy is sneaky protectionism, but this is without clear analysis of what the greens are all about.

    I don’t think that our miners for example should have to compete with overseas miners from countries that do not protect their environment or workers. This is a competitive advantage which is unfair for us, particularly if we are going to step up our environmental credentials.

    This policy would be harsh if it were applied without care. It would be a last resort standpoint to take if a particular country refuses to behave more responsibly.

  29. Fran Kelly doesnt sound very happy and enthusiastic on RN. She was the one of many that was perpetuating the myth.

  31. [4Corners will blow out of the water the myth that the Undies were for Labor from the beginning.]

    From the preview this morning it seems that with his charter of budget honesty Peter Costello sowed the seeds of his party’s failure to win government 12 years later.

  32. poor baby. Malcolm Farr feels un-luuuuurve. Where is the luuuuuurve, Kev.

    [After Question Time last Wednesday, Kevin Rudd left the House of Representatives and was immediately surrounded by about eight people wanting his autograph.

    Rudd asked for names and obliged. When the autograph seekers had gone I approached Rudd to say hello and got the feeling that the last thing he wanted to do was to be seen talking to a reporter. Presumably he was apprehensive that whatever he said might be misreported or, worse, reported accurately.

    I mentioned to the encounter to a colleague and said I felt as if I had typhoid. “Then I have typhoid, too,” he said, recounting much the same response from the Foreign Minister. Kevin Rudd is clearly working to keep the minority boat stable, even if it involves not talking to journalists. ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/

  33. [From the preview this morning it seems that with his charter of budget honesty Peter Costello sowed the seeds of his party’s failure to win government 12 years later.
    This action was typical of the short termism of the Howard government.
    It came home to bite them big time from the sound of it.

  34. looking forward to watching 4 corners tonight.

    On the topic of the NRL. The word here in Melbourne is that there has been a police investigation re betting scandal, and this week household names in Rugby are going to get life bans. This is the first I heard of anything like that. Any truth to this scuttebutt

  35. Therefore, send not to know
    For whom the bell tolls,
    It tolls for thee.

    John Donne: For Whom the Bell Tolls

    Good morning, Bludgers

    Bit of a waiting-game day until 4Corners, so I thought I’d post snippets from UK Channel4’s “explosive” expose of the depths to which Murdoch’s News of the World and his News International CEO sank to cover up the phone tapping scandal: Phone-hacking scandal: Andy Coulson ‘listened to intercepted messages’ Anonymous source tells Channel Four David Cameron’s media adviser would ask for recordings to be played for him at News of the World

    [The programme includes claims that politicians and police have been cowed by fear of Rupert Murdoch’s News International, which owns the News of the World.]

    How low did Murdoch’s minions stoop?

    * The police investigation suddenly ceased:

    [Other journalists had expected to be drawn into the police investigation, the source said, adding: “There were huge rumours swirling every day of who they were coming for next and who was going to come and cart away this person, that person and the other. And then I think the feeling in the newsroom turned to surprise that nobody else was affected.”]

    * An MP had to relinquish rights to force News International’s CEO to testify

    [Adam Price, one of the MPs from the media select committee which last year investigated the phone-hacking scandal, described how he stopped voting to compel News International’s chief executive, Rebekah Brooks, to be called as a witness.]

    * Members of Parliament were threatened with menace

    [“I was told by a senior Conservative member of the committee, who I knew was in direct contact with executives at News International, that if we went for her, they would go for us – effectively that they would delve into our personal lives in order to punish them.”]

    * The right to free speech, especially by Members of the House of Commons, was challenged when Labour MP was threatened for calling on Murdoch’s “anointed” PM Blair to resign

    [The Labour MP Tom Watson said he was threatened in 2006 after he called for Tony Blair to resign at a time when News International was supporting him.

    “A very senior News International journalist told me that Rebekah would never forgive me for what I did and that she would pursue me through parliament for the rest of my time as an MP,” he said.]

    * Scotland Yard’s investigation was cut short: some former senior officers are taking the police to court over it!

    [Brian Paddick, a former deputy assistant commissioner at Scotland Yard who is also taking the police to court, suggested that his former colleagues’ decision to cut short their original investigation may have been influenced by their links with the News of the World …

    Dispatches raises an unresolved question over whether the officer who was in charge of the original investigation, the then assistant commissioner Andy Hayman, was himself a target of the News of the World.]

    AND THE MYTH?

    [Oborne says in the programme that voters supported David Cameron in order to restore a sense of decency in politics. He continues: “Instead, by hiring Andy Coulson, he has sanctioned the News of the World culture of impunity and got too close to the Rupert Murdoch power elite.”]

    STOP THE MYTH

  36. [or, worse, reported accurately.]

    No, I’d say that was the last thing Rudd expected.

    Gotta love the sensitive souls, don’t you?

    They set out on a campaign to bring a man down, sifting through his private life back to when he was a child, blowing trivial incidents out of all proportion, and then, once they’ve got their scalp, are in a perpetual disbelief every time he does exactly what he says he would do and then wonder why he doesn’t like talking to them (note: Kevin did not turn on his heel and walk away; he simply made it clear he wasn’t interested).

    Of course, the journo wanted to continue the tearing down of the Labor government. In this context, anything less than “Julia knifed me and is a traitorous b****. I am going to cross the floor and join the Liberals tomorrow” is a disappointment.

  37. PS: Post 3235 is especially for Grog’s Gamut. Thanks for the blog. I hope you can stream the Channel4 programme!

  39. Jamie Briggs is doing a very good spoilt brat impression on Morning Agenda on the issue of David (or is it Michael) Johnston’s MORE TANKS call. Richard Marles is doing a good job.

  40. OzPolTragic @ 3235

    Thanks for that!

    +++

    4 Corners tonight sounds good-oh. Could it be the official, rolled-gold Unhinging of the Mad Monk?

  41. Julia apparently invited the unhinged one to visit Afghanistan but he opted to go to London to meet Cameron instead.
    STOP THE TROOP SUPPORT!!!!!

  45. For those who love poetry or find war poetry disturbing and moving:

    As David Cameron chooses ‘Dulce et Decorum Est’ for National Poetry Day on Thursday, our writer salutes the men who changed our view of conflict
    Harry Ricketts: The power of war poetry, from the Western Front to Helmand province

    The Independent’s Andrew Johnson and Jonathan Owen speak to the 15 winners of The Foyle Young Poets Award

    National Poetry Day! If only …

    Better go and watch the grass grow before I get “grey carded” for too frequent posts again!

  47. So when Abbott said “I’m not denying that there are concerns that people have in this area [Euthanasia], but I think that we need a parliament which focuses on bread and butter concerns”, meeting Cameron must be part of that all important buttering the bread process.

  48. [3241 BK
    Posted Monday, October 4, 2010 at 8:56 am | Permalink
    Julia apparently invited the unhinged one to visit Afghanistan but he opted to go to London to meet Cameron instead.
    STOP THE TROOP SUPPORT!!!!!]

    was this on the news BK

    i just watched thew 24/7 Phillip william all a glow about the the P. M in London,
    but the response from news read this end very muted.

  49. [was this on the news BK

    i just watched thew 24/7 Phillip william all a glow about the the P. M in London,
    but the response from news read this end very muted.]

    just watched the news 24/7 Phillip Williams all a glow about the PM in London and Europe, but the response from the news reader this end very muted.

    first try, this morning, slept in day light saving really changed your sleep patterns for a few days. no excuse

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