Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor”

Comments Page 64 of 67
1 … 63 64 65 … 67

  6. “There have been some very obvious problems which have arisen during Labor’s first term. I admit that. But the two you mentioned are exceptions”

    Sorry, had to disconnect for a second…I read this to say there were problems but not these schemes. Fair enough. I still agree with the Cabinet ministers who administered the scheme that they stuffed up. If you disagree with them and think they did a good job go ahead and tell them that.

    Dee, in case you are still here, I have never said the government was responsible for the adverse outcomes (deaths etc) I have only said they are responsible for the administration, and they screwed up. Its great that now there are mechanisms to register and accredit providers but that is what should have been done in the design of the scheme from the start.

  7. [Maybe he is a Liberal automated responder.]

    I’d like to hope not! 😀

    The irony of all this is that in Australia there is a deficit of genuine conservative opinion that permeates our media landscape. That which exists is often shallow and poorly argued (Mod Lib), tied to commercial interests (IPA and News Ltd mob), or incapable of separation from the dominant, so-called ‘conservative’ political doctrine, ie Howard years (rest of ’em).

    I’d love it if New Media could unearth a genuine conservative viewpoint. Something that could add value to our political system, and give a good shake-up to the recalcitrants and mendicants that currently make up the Liberal and National parties.

  9. [ Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 3, 2010 at 11:25 pm | Permalink
    “There have been some very obvious problems which have arisen during Labor’s first term. I admit that. But the two you mentioned are exceptions”

    Sorry, had to disconnect for a second…I read this to say there were problems but not these schemes. Fair enough. I still agree with the Cabinet ministers who administered the scheme that they stuffed up. If you disagree with them and think they did a good job go ahead and tell them that.

    Dee, in case you are still here, I have never said the government was responsible for the adverse outcomes (deaths etc) I have only said they are responsible for the administration, and they screwed up. Its great that now there are mechanisms to register and accredit providers but that is what should have been done in the design of the scheme from the start.
    ]

    Justy like Downer and the AWB ?? 🙂

    “Crickets”

  10. GG
    He was the one in the cowboy hat with the six shooter strapped to his hip.
    No more being put in moderation, it’ll be shoot first ask questions later.

  11. From about 3112:
    speaking of show throwing…http://www.sockandawe.com/

    And which are the current top dubbya shoethrowing countries? Is it Eyeran, Eyerack, Afffgaaaneestan? (Well, they probably have not got much in the way of internet access, but anyway…) Nope. (Drum roll please.)

    1. USA
    2. France
    3. Australia.

    Feel the luuuuurrrrvvvve.

  12. [It looks to me like a deliberate, deflecting equation

    …

    I don’t know how we ended up here when we started off talking about indigenous representation]

    RWers will always revert to their scripted talking points.

    Everyone knows that if Labor hadn’t gone ahead of the curve of the GFC with one of the world’s best-targeted stimulus measures, the economy would have gone into recession, along with the remainder of the developed world. If THAT had happened the Liberals would have simply reverted to their pre-scripted ‘recession’ talking point:

    [The Rudd Recession]

    and

    [The Risk of a Rudd Recession]

    However they couldn’t use the alliterative mantra because …

    [Labor saved Australia: Nobel laureate Stiglitz

    Sydney Morning Herald, 06 August 2010

    The federal government’s economic credentials have received a timely boost from Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who suggested Labor may be best placed to take the country forward.

    Professor Stiglitz, a former World Bank chief economist and economic adviser to the US government, said federal Labor did a fantastic job of saving Australia from the global economic crisis.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/labor-saved-australia-nobel-laureate-stiglitz-20100806-11lkq.html

  18. [Fair enough. I still agree with the Cabinet ministers who administered the scheme that they stuffed up.]

    I see. And still refusing to address any of the substantive points I’ve raised?

    Your choice, but to a large extent it invalidates further claims you might make to the issue of indigenous affairs. Can I say how disappointed I am by your posts tonight?

    *sad face*

  20. Frank: Happy to say the AWB scandal was a disgrace. Feel free to add in mandatory detention of children, children overboard and many others.

    I just think it is a good idea to be able to admit that something is a problem, particularly when the people responsible admit it was a problem. If you cant do that, then I would think that is more “automated responder” than anything I have posted!

    Well, I am about to make all of your nights:

    This right winger is taking his “shallow and poorly argued views” off to bed!

    Hope you all enjoy preaching to each other until my return….nighty night.

  21. [Swan got booed at the NRL After Match Presentation – I imagine the Murdoch press will make a lot out of this tomorrow]
    Reminds me of that wonderful story (apocryphal?) about Gough Whitlam at Lang Park, getting booed relentlessly, turning to Senator Ron McAuliffe, also head of QRL, saying wtte “McAuliffe, I never realised how unpopular you are up here. I’m never coming here with you again”. 😀

  22. Mod Lib,

    [Its great that now there are mechanisms to register and accredit providers but that is what should have been done in the design of the scheme from the start.]

    That’s where you are dead wrong. They “were” and were modified as issues were identified.

    There were “none” beforehand under Howard!

    You’re talking through your hat!

  24. [This right winger is taking his “shallow and poorly argued views” off to bed! ]

    Interesting how they all run away when they get sprung.

  26. Confessions, you will have to be more specific about the substantive points I haven’t addressed…

    Scorpio, we are going around in circles here! Howard didnt run a massive scheme to pay roof insulators. If you are paying someone its a good idea to check what they do, thats all. I accept you are among the many others here that disagree with the Ministers running the scheme and as I have said, thats fair enough. Maybe they were wrong, they didnt stuff up at all.

  27. Mod Lib

    1/ “Dee, in case you are still here, I have never said the government was responsible for the adverse outcomes (deaths etc)”

    Abbott did repeat on TV , incl last week Did you read Coroners reports on 4 deaths ?

    2/ “I have only said they are responsible for the administration, and they screwed up”
    no generic points , give me details , and note pointt 3/

    3/ “Its great that now there are mechanisms to register and accredit providers but that is what should have been done in the design of the scheme from the start.”

    there was !
    in fact Garret progress beefed up existing State criteria who had prev responsibility
    One can not legislate for crooks , you just find thems and prosecute

    by way , 1.4 million homes were insulated , tell me how many crooks were in th PREV 1.4 million installs ?? , ditto how many deaths or fires ?? ditto what PRE training was done on PREV 1.4 installs

    i can tell you your answer , you do not know

  28. Ron
    Didn’t Possum do a good piece on the reality of the figures before and after the insualtion scheme. I must find it and bookmark it for use at times like this.

    ABC is just showing Order in the House, a round up of the week in the HoR. Maybe I will see the speaker vote I missed.

  29. Ron:
    1) You may be surprised to hear I am not Tony Abbott (although some here seem to think I could be!). I dont agree with the view that the ALP is responsible.
    2) Then why was Peter Garrett dumped? Why was Combet brought in? What where the letters from PG to Cabinet about? Why was one withheld?
    3) No idea how many, but I hope they were all prosecuted.

    So Ron, Scorpio, Gus, Confessions (did I miss any?) think the scheme was great. Fair enough. I think the scheme was done too quickly with too little oversight.

    Now, I know this could go on for ages, but I have to work tomorrow so must now get some sleep!!!!

  30. Julia looks so happy welcoming Jenky to the chair, but little did Abbott know what she was really smiling about.

  31. Scorpio, thanks for the pointer. Still don’t get the why. Maybe it is because they could..

    A survivor said they sang their own Requiem.

    I have no idea why, but from the age of about twelve, I was engaged with the terrible fate of the Jews, under the Germans. I am Catholic by upbringing, and had to contend with a fair (un) bit of name calling and stupid crap.

    Nothing like, incarceration, death marches, or that type of thing, of course.

  33. [Now, I know this could go on for ages,]

    Not much chance of that. If you can’t put up, you deserve to be suitably “ignored”!

  34. Mod Lib – rather than worry about what politicians were saying -look at what was achieved. In thousands of schools across Australia there are, in most cases, the first significant new buildings in half a century. Thousands of homes were safely insulated by reputable contractors. We didn’t go into recession. Thousands did not need unemployment benefits. The government absorbed the shock of the GFC and protected thousands of business from collapse. These are facts. Do they count for anything? Why is it that with all this achieved we are only supposed to think “debacle” and “stuff up”? 2.7% waste is actually well below normal construction waste in the commercial world. Can you acknowledge that this is all a great big beat up to make Libs feel better about how well Labor is preforming economically?

    How is this administration supposed to be managed? Perhaps you are arguing that we should have nationalised the insulation industry to have greater control over the work practices in those minority of cases when it failed?

    And if we extend your argument that if a government pays money then they are responsible for making sure that it is spent wisely – how much monitoring should there be in place over where and how private schools spend taxpayers money?

    I also note that you use the old confessional argument to add strength to your rather weak line of attack – “I will acknowledge fault on my side so therefore you must do the same in return”. Unfortunately, while this makes you sound more reasonable is doesn’t actually make you any more correct.

  35. [Now, I know this could go on for ages, but I have to work tomorrow so must now get some sleep]

    Yes, you have so much to do with you relentless work towards Indegenous people of Australia

  36. I am watching lots of oppo smiles. It is cruel knowing what is going to happen, like watching a snail get run over.
    Not really. 😉

  37. I got around to reading, yes I know, gasp, the Sunday Mail.

    It is full on about The Parks.

    And sure I know that Murdoch would be interested, just for his own fun, wanting to destroy the Rann Government.

    But in this case, they will deserve it.

  40. [How is this administration supposed to be managed? Perhaps you are arguing that we should have nationalised the insulation industry to have greater control over the work practices in those minority of cases when it failed?]

    No, do it like the Libs try time and time again. Remove the bodies that administrate the workplace safety inspections and remove any criminal powers over those at fault. That works well.

  41. cw
    I am following the Save the Parks Community Centre fb group and the rally on 10 oct is still going ahead as planned, it seems. They do not trust the state gov’t not to consult, talk, write reports and do what they want anyway.

  42. “Yes, you have so much to do with you relentless work towards Indegenous people of Australia”

    Indigenous is the spelling, George.

    Try to get something right.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 64 of 67
1 … 63 64 65 … 67