Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor”

Comments Page 63 of 67
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  1. Swan got booed at the NRL After Match Presentation – I imagine the Murdoch press will make a lot out of this tomorrow.

    Probably orchestrated for media fodder.

    Not orchestrated … just a few angry & frustrated Lib voters …

    It works both ways … the Rabbott also got booed when he made an appearance at a Canberra Raiders match.

  2. Mod lib

    where are the thosuands? hundreds? tens? complaining

    why didnt the MSM point out there were more house fires under howard,and that labor had brought in standards

    where are the claims for compo?

    I have yet to see one materialise

  3. [ Mod Lib
    Posted Sunday, October 3, 2010 at 10:31 pm | Permalink
    Gus, honestly…

    I do admire all of you guys fighting to the death for the scheme but when your own leadership pans it, dumps a minister, brings in another minister to specifically clean up the mess, the PM and deputy PM admit that it was a mess, then I think I have every right to say it was a mess.

    If you disagree with me, the PM, the deputy PM, the Minister in charge, the Minister replacing the Minister in charge, and the majority of Australia then so be it. I stand by what I said, the scheme was a mess!
    ]

    You live in a Fantasy Land which is as bad, if not worse than some Greens live in.

    If The Govt had used Gopvt advertising to promote the BER and other schemes – you would’ve had those media parasites and your LIb Mates cry “Waste of Taxpayer Funds” from here to kingdom come – Fact.

    As for those Schools complaining about the BER – how coincidental that these Schools had Principals and/or members of the P&C who had some conection to the Liberal Party ?

  4. Dee, the FHB scheme was designed to support the purchaser to purchase whatever they wanted. If a problem happened on the site that is the responsibility of the builder. The Insulation scheme went to the contractor to encourage them to complete a service. The government should be responsible for that service (after all its my money they are using)!

  6. [I stand by what I said, the scheme was a mess!]

    You are wrong. The politics was a mess but the scheme was a success. Rudd thought he’d get credit for accepting blame which Howard never ever did. It simply didn’t work when the media decided to play the Liberal party tune each and every day. Once her leader said it was a mess Gillard had no option to agree. Privately she and others must have been horrified at Rudd’s political nievity.

  7. Mod Lib:

    If it’s not too much trouble, I would like an explanation of why health and social support to indigenous communities can be reasonably compared with school building infrastructure and household insulation schemes. Your efforts thus far haven’t achieved this.

  8. One good thing about the new Government is they aren’t taking any crap. Crean and Emmerson today were exemplars of the new strategy.

  10. [If it’s not too much trouble, I would like an explanation of why health and social support to indigenous communities can be reasonably compared with school building infrastructure and household insulation schemes. Your efforts thus far haven’t achieved this.]

    confessions, you aren’t going to get one. And the comparison, together with other comments, clearly show that Mod Lib is neither interested in nor an advocate of Indigenous support.

  11. Confessions #3107:
    I am not equating the two issues, I am saying the descriptions used sounded like some criticisms of the previous government’s programs (see my post #3050).

    If this is the level of acknowledging the problems of the last term in office I despair about the next term!

    Did anything go wrong in the last 3 years then or was the electorate’s verdict just unfair?

  14. Only downer is that the Rodent will be happy LOL

    Evan
    So will Mark Latham, he reckoned if he beat Howie in 2004 he should be given howie’s no 1 ticket 😆

  16. GG, you don’t happen to have video of the Chaser’s bit showing Howard falling over during a number of occasions? I think it was part of “Howard, the Great Walks” or something along those lines.

  25. [If a problem happened on the site that is the responsibility of the builder. The Insulation scheme went to the contractor to encourage them to complete a service. The government should be responsible for that service (after all its my money they are using)!]
    And whose money are they using to subsidise First Home Buyers?
    Who chooses the builder contractor to build the house?
    Who chose the installers for the insulation? Why, the consumer of course!
    Builders/contractors are registered with a government body & the fact that they are building a home procured through a subsidised government payment would make the government liable.
    Stupid as the arguement may seem, just how long before we see someone blame a government subsidy for shoddy workmanship on their house? How long before someone claims that if not for the offer of a subsidy they wouldn’t be bankrupt because they cannot afford the repayments? Afterall, they could argue that they were encouraged into home ownership.
    Yep, it sure looks ridiculously stupid.

  28. Security is very tight in New Delhi for the CommGames and soldiers are everywhere.

    Can i remind everyone that Indira Gandhi was assassinated by two of her trusted Sikh bodyguards.

  30. [I am not equating the two issues,]

    Sorry, but you deliberately invoked BER and insulation when we were having a discussion about indigenous health. It looks to me like a deliberate, deflecting equation. Which is unfortunate, given you started out tonight championing the Liberal contribution to indigenous enfranchisement and representation. How did you get to BER from there????

    [If this is the level of acknowledging the problems of the last term in office I despair about the next term!]

    There have been some very obvious problems which have arisen during Labor’s first term. I admit that. But the two you mentioned are exceptions. And again I state that I don’t know how we ended up here when we started off talking about indigenous representation and how it might benefit government policy.

  31. What exactly is the problem with schools and whatever.?

    Not.

    Disregarding the notoriously since the Rum Rebellion NSW Corrupt Forever, even when the existing band is rolled…..

    No other State has a problem. Probably because they are pretty well straight.

    I know people and schools who and which are well pleased. One because they were paid for construction, air conditioning and so. The other because they have gained a fantastic space, for whatever their students are capable of doing.

  36. Security is very tight in New Delhi for the CommGames and soldiers are everywhere.

    Finns, will you be staying up till midnight to watch the opening ceremony?
    The goulish amongst us will be waiting for a big bang (heaven forbid!)

  37. confessions
    Same old story. When you start digging for detail it is exactly what the Rabbott does.
    Stop the boats.
    Insulation murder & waste
    BER waste, waste, waste
    Waste,waste,waste…………………………..

  39. [ vera
    Posted Sunday, October 3, 2010 at 11:08 pm | Permalink
    Security is very tight in New Delhi for the CommGames and soldiers are everywhere.

    Finns, will you be staying up till midnight to watch the opening ceremony?
    The goulish amongst us will be waiting for a big bang (heaven forbid!)
    ]

    The Advantage of NOT having Daylight Savings – We Sandgropers can watch it at the civilised hour of 9.30pm 🙂

  41. Vera, goodness gracious me, no, no.

    There will be a big bang at the end according to the Aussie firework guy. Chitty Chitty Bang Bang or is that Shitty Shitty Bang Bang

  44. [Dee

    nicely put]
    Thanks Gusface!
    The Rabbott disease has infected the right wing mushrooms. 😛
    Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr……………..

  50. gough1

    #2938

    1/ “I’d be grateful to know Ron though what mechanism labor will use to reach its targets “

    a CPRS is mechanism , adopted by 33 devloped Countrys , which is still Labor polisy
    Read Prof Garnaut Final Report , he explains how co2 is reduced under a CPRS

    5% ETS= a 26% co2 CUT from 2011 to 2020

    “2/ If Flannery believes the ALP can get its act together and implement ANY sort of policy to reduce emmissions all power to him. “

    Prof Flanery unlike you is a pro and blieves another pro being Prof Garnaut’s CPRS
    and Flannery said last nite on TV , again , endorsed Labor’s 5% CPRS , now re-read 1/

    3/ “Ron, you’ve yet to embrace the new paradigm.”

    read my #2931 last sentense , posted before your post

    “Now caravan moved on in fronteer paridyms , and Greg Combet will negotate an CC outcome , and HE on TV last week said Labors 5% ETS (CPRS) was base line start”

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