Armadale by-election live

# % Swing 2PP
Buti (ALP) 9927 57.9% 1.8% 71.0%
Van Burgel (CDP) 3525 20.6% 13.2% 29.0%
Tucak (IND) 1484 8.7%
Davies (GRN) 2200 12.8% 2.5%
Informal 960 5.3% -0.6%
Booths counted (out of 12): 12
Counted (% of enrolment): 74.4%
Turnout (% of 2008 vote): 92.0%

8.00pm. Special Institutions and Hospitals now added. Two-candidate preferred count now at 13,027, against 17,136 primary votes counted.

7.45pm. Grovelands now added.

7.42pm. Pardon me, there is still an ordinary polling booth outstanding: Grovelands Primary School.

7.37pm. 3933 two-party votes have now been added, but booth details are not available. Labor looking good for a higher two-party vote as well as primary vote. Comparing a two-party Labor-versus-Liberal result from 2008 with a Labor-versus-CDP result from today is of course not terribly meaningful, but the party should be able to persuade the media otherwise.

7.34pm. The last “proper” booth, Gwynne Park Primary School, has been added, as have 1311 pre-polls.

7.30pm. Armadale and Westfield Park primary schools added. Two booths outstanding include the negligible “Special Institutions, Hospitals & Remotes”. Still no two-party figures available.

7.25pm. Cecil Andrews Senior High School and Neerigen Brook Primary School added, again consistent with the overall picture.

7.21pm. Two more booths, Gwynne Park Primary School and Kelmscott Senior High School, fail to change the picture. Turnout not looking so bad, at least if my calculation is an accurate guide.

7.19pm. Whoops – I was looking at the result for the CDP, who are obviously scooping up homeless Liberals, rather than the Greens, who are performing rather modestly.

7.18pm. In fact, results looking very similar to the Willagee by-election.

7.16pm. Armadale-Kelmscott Senior Citizens Centre and Kingsley Primary School booths added. Labor still looking good to top their 2008 primary vote. The Greens are up just shy of 15 per cent.

7.13pm. If anyone noticed that alarming turnout figure, it was based on a miscalculation that has now been corrected.

7.10pm. Two booths in, Challis Primary School and St Mary in the Valley Anglican Church Hall in relatively marginal Kelmscott, and the Labor is holding up okay. The psychological hurdle for them is whether they can stay ahead of their 2008 primary vote.

7pm. After a slow start, 1188 postal votes have been added, and they show no indication of a boilover. My swing figures are based on booth matching, so with only postal votes available there is nothing showing there yet.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of Western Australia’s Armdale by-election. First results should be in from about 6.30pm. Given the apparent certainty of a Labor win, the points of interest are how their primary vote bears up, and how much the AFL grand final and election fatigue will affect turnout.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

24 comments on “Armadale by-election live”

    Candidate Votes Counted Percentage
    BUTI – ALP 2,128 57.08%
    VAN BURGEL – CDP 727 19.5%
    TUCAK – IND 357 9.58%
    DAVIES – GRN 516 13.84%
    Total Valid Votes 3,728
    Informal 172
    Total 3,900

    Count Progress:16.04%

  2. Of course Labor will win, but it just goes to show the high CLP vote means the Labor Government is hated and if the Libs did have a candidate they would of won!

  3. how about we scrap by-elections and have a senate like situation where when a member retires another member of the party replaces the retiring member

    it would save money which the political parties dont usually have for by-elections and save the public from being annoyed from voting in a meaningless ballot

  4. @ William – Federal Labor that is, i think the WA Libs are highly liked (according to the latest poll) as they did return the budget back into a surplus!

  5. Liberal, with the numbers in the Legislative Assembly on a knife edge, are you in any way disturbed at the incompetence the Liberal Party has apparently shown in failing to field a candidate in a by-election they would otherwise have won off Labor?

  6. Liberal: correction, we were in surplus while Labor were in power, and are *now* in deficit (at one point a year into the Libs’ term that deficit was absolutely massive).

    And if the Libs would have won with a candidate, don’t you think they would have run, given that that would have taken the alliance numbers from 29 to 30, allowing them to govern outright.

  7. [ Andrew Owens
    Posted Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 10:04 pm | Permalink
    Liberal: correction, we were in surplus while Labor were in power, and are *now* in deficit (at one point a year into the Libs’ term that deficit was absolutely massive).

    And if the Libs would have won with a candidate, don’t you think they would have run, given that that would have taken the alliance numbers from 29 to 30, allowing them to govern outright.

    You have to be kidding – Libs spending money on electing their own when it’s easier to indirectly bankroll a Green to get uup, who thens beds the Treasurer and all but becomes a Lib ? 🙂

  8. I was a bit concerned with reporting on ABC online about the Greens candidate who couldn’t vote in the electorate because “recent changes to electoral boundaries meant he was no longer living in the electorate and was not entitled to vote”. Does the ABC include 2007 as recent in terms of redistributions?

  9. Labor did ok by Armadale when in government here- the Liberals tried to privatise the local hospital and were only stopped because the land had been gifted by the community for a public hospital ( if I recall correctly)Also the Liberals here closed the popular and well used Fremantle train line which Labor had reopened. We had nothing while the Libs were in power- as an example Nerrigen Brook school has new buildings in BER more than it has had in the last 30 years!! We have had a city redevelopment and Alannah worked hard for Armadale and as Tony lives here he has a good knowledge of the area.
    As far as the LIberal state governemnt goes- Westpolls – would favor them – it’s the only paper.The mining boom has done us ordinary electors no favors- electricity up, water up, but of course the Premier thinks thats ok. And the local TV media seem afraid to critique the Liberals…

  10. I was enrolled for this, but for the first time in my life I didn’t vote, due to an 11 hour shift at work getting in the way and me not caring much anyway. I imagine that means a fine?

    I imagine this sets a few records for the CDP. Is this the first time they’ve ever come second, or their highest primary vote ever?

  11. Also, the Herald Sun gets it wrong – how hard is it to read a few numbers and names? Time for some reading comprehension practice.

    [ At the close of counting, the Western Australian Electoral Commission website had Labor candidate Tony Buti, a university law professor, on 12,089 votes against Greens candidate Owen Davies on 5043 on a two-candidate preferred basis.

    That gave Mr Buti 70.56 per cent against Mr Davies 29.44 per cent with 74.44 per cent of votes counted.

    The Liberals chose not to field a candidate in the Labor stronghold, held by a notional 14.8 per cent following the last election in 2008.

    Two other candidates contested the seat, Christian Democrat Jamie van Burgel, who had 3525 votes at close of counting and independent John Tucak who had 1484 votes. ]

  12. It is easy to say the Libs are stupid for not running a candidate, but if the Libs lost by even 1 vote these same people would be saying how stupid they were tio put a candidate up for an unwinnable seat.

  13. He’d’ve been enrolled in Darling Range for both this by-election (Armadale candidate) and the 2008 election (Forrestfield candidate). I’m guessing you don’t need to live in an electorate to run in it… and there can’t be that many potential Greens candidates in the SE suburbs.

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