Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from last week, but with the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote to 44 per cent, Labor stable on 42 per cent and the Greens down a point further to an undernourished 8 per cent. When asked whether Tony Abbott was “unfairly putting roadblocks in the way of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s programs”, 46 per cent rated him too obstructive while 54 per cent believed his actions “appropriate” for an Opposition Leader (not sure where the don’t knows went). A surprisingly large majority agreed there should be a new election, perhaps owing to the question’s rather odd qualification that such an election would allow us “a Government with a working majority”: 55 per cent agreed with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Findings on “attributes to describe the Prime Minister” have Julia Gillard deteriorating on all measures since the questions were last posed on July 5. Her worst reversal is a 15 per drop on “good in a crisis”, which forcefully makes the point that there’s no accounting for taste. The figures for Tony Abbott are little changed, with a general pattern of very slight improvements. Gillard remains better placed than Abbott on each measure, being well ahead on “down to earth” and well behind on “narrow-minded” and “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,648 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  3. [The Zen Sensei would say talking about religions on a blog is like hearing the sound of one hand clapping.]

    I have patented Nirvana.

  13. [I have often wondered how much of history, both ancient and modern, which is now accepted as ” factual ” has in fact been clouded or developed by the personal agenda and bias of those writing, translating or interpreting it.]

    Thank you for making my day. As a history MA, this is one of my fave games.

    Without being too theory-based, history is and always has been both factual & biased.

    The best example is, say the second AFL Grand Final. We have full tv coverage, newspapers, blogs, radio, everything. If, however, we had only one letter/email from a Collingwood supporter, sensibly pointing out that Collingwood are the best in the universe, a team filled with heroes, able to tackle anything, then our understanding of the history of the GF would be based on that. We may know that the person who wrote the report (say, Eddie McGuire) was a known Collingwood supporter, but it is still the only report we had. If we were looking at something even longer ago, or occurring in a time/place that was less literate, we might have only Neil Mitchell’s comments from the last few days, and would have to piece together the history from that, and it would be very different.

    For Grand Final, insert any battle or political event from the past you care to think of.

    Professional historians should be aware of these things, and their own persepectives, when dealing with the past & what evidence we do have, and they usually are, it is just that trying to explain this in more popular history books without sounding like a French theorist gets tricky. And why there is an increasing split between academic & popular history.

  16. I tell you what guys — this arvo’s discussions have done a great deal towards preventing Alzheimers … can’t remember the last time I’ve delved into my memory so much.

    Ta — very stimulating!

    And Boer — have already patented stimulation so you’ll just have to do the voyeur thing!

    :devil:

  17. [Professional historians should be aware of these things, and their own persepectives, when dealing with the past & what evidence we do have, and they usually are, it is just that trying to explain this in more popular history books without sounding like a French theorist gets tricky.]

    Enter Keith Windschuttle …

  19. The Murray-Darling Basin Authority today released a guide to its controversial plan ….
    The clawback of 27 to 37 per cent of water amounts to an additional 3000 to 4000 gigalitres of surface water annually.

    So what was all the fuss aout?

    Well, according to the Oz, this will lead to “civil unrest” in rural Australia.

    Presumably, the Oz is dreaming of a replay of 1975: civil unrest, supply blockage in the Senate, economic crisis … eventually leading to a dismissal of an ALP government by the Governor General, and an early election under a Coalition caretaker PM.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/water-minister-urged-to-show-more-concern-for-murray-darling-communities/story-e6frg6xf-1225935828353

  21. jenauthor

    [ Julian the Apostate perchance? ]

    Yep, that’s the one. Julian was a cousin of Constantine I, whom he despised.

    Apparently there was a short-lived usurper who was also pagan, but I can’t recall his name.

  22. Anyone interested in science and has Foxtel should watch Genius at 8:30 AESDT on BBC Knowledge tonight. Thoroughly worth watching.

  24. [Immediately after the release of the momentous MDB report on comes Barnaby going on about “putting fluffy stuff in roofs” and “burning 190 homes down”.
    The man is a National embarrassment.]

    BK – then he went on with his retail politics and told us how the poor old pensioner who has just paid off his mortgage will lose his home and the teacher who has moved to the area with his/her kids will have to leave town. Poor Barnaby and Birmingham – they just can’t look at any positives e.g. new industry or extra tourism.
    Very one dimensional people.

  25. [Griffith irrigation farmer Laurence Salvestro and his stepson Amos with their Semillon grape vines. Picture: Stuart McEvoy Source: The Australian]

    Wow what a way to irrigate grapes, flood them. Surely this picture indicates what is wrong with some irrigators?

  31. @jenauthor #3549 bemused#3515 dayely#3509
    Hi, have been out for a number of meetings but would like to put in a few late thoughts.
    True John was written towards end of first century so in the 90sad. John was in his 90s and the only disciple believed not to be executed, rather he was exiled. Jesus was executed in the 30s so even though he was old John was around with Jesus and more than one set of writings confirm it. As to records of Jesus apart from the new testament, yes there was Josephus, there are also writings by Romans, even the authorities wanting to know what to do about followers of this Jesus. and who complained about Christians who worshipped someone who was crucified. There are drawings of on the wall of one building of a man with a donkeys head showing ridicule for Jesus, definitely not left by Christians. There is proof.
    When it comes to the Koran and the bible having similar content this is true also. The three monotheistic religions share the same roots. All have Abraham, but where the jews see themselves as coming from Isaac, the arabs descend through Ishmael. Mohammed also gained much of his understanding of Christianity from contact with a monophysite priest encountered on trading trips for his aunt. It is not so much the content but the interpretation that is a problem.
    Oh boy, way too long, sorry.

  32. [Anyone interested in science and has Foxtel should watch Genius at 8:30 AESDT on BBC Knowledge tonight. Thoroughly worth watching.]

    Ta BK — will do.

  33. [Wow what a way to irrigate grapes, flood them. Surely this picture indicates what is wrong with some irrigators?]

    That picture should be front and centre whenever Barnyard and his mates grizzle about the MDB plan.

  35. G’day all Ron is here , is all well in PBlands as not read posts this arvo

    so what did i miss that is now lost in cibers , tho suppose lost is nay mised if not worth miss which is what I read today so many MSN finance Jorno’s lost in there mist of missing oz dollar hitting 99 cents part reason of that which USA is printing money pushing US $ down and make them exports more competative vs our oz exports and i just luv USA land of free enterprise and no govt interventons , but oh but its ok when suits

  36. [As to records of Jesus apart from the new testament, yes there was Josephus, there are also writings by Romans, even the authorities wanting to know what to do about followers of this Jesus. and who complained about Christians who worshipped someone who was crucified. There are drawings of on the wall of one building of a man with a donkeys head showing ridicule for Jesus, definitely not left by Christians. There is proof.]

    Sorry Dong — while there were writings well afterward, there is not, as far as I know, ANY reference to Jesus in his lifetime or shortly thereafter in any of the records of the Jewish or Roman authorities.

  37. Speaking as one who gains financially from the current irrigation water arrangements, farmers do not, repeat do not, pay the full cost for irrigation water.

    OTOH, the environment does, repeat does, pay the full cost for each and every drop of irrigation water.

  38. Wiggins @3613,

    thanks for that. A couple of questions

    How do you get young people into history if not making it attractive ?

    If you do make it attractive does that leave a possibility that what you call academic history will be lost and the flowery will take over from the fact? Fast food history as opposed to home cooked history.

  39. Finns
    On our joint behalves, have patented veritas. And vino. And bread. And water. And earth. And fire. We have air covered. Haha. Patents uber alles.

  40. [i just luv USA land of free enterprise and no govt interventons , but oh but its ok when suits]

    Amigo Ronnie, very soon, it will be home of graves and land of the fleas

  43. [If you do make it attractive does that leave a possibility that what you call academic history will be lost and the flowery will take over from the fact? Fast food history as opposed to home cooked history.]

    A good example for you Doyley. Went to Egypt last year … the tour guide, reputed to have a doctorate in Egyptology, spouted all the popular myths to the group — lots of stuff that have been proven implausible in recent years. But for those who didn’t have the background knowledge it was romantic and entertaining.

    I expect we will always have that dichotomy — especially since anybody can post a page to the net with an article that may or may not be based in fact.

    Luckily, the rigour of academic evidence has become even more particular … so I doubt the ‘more likely’ truths will be lost, even when you have people like me who write historical fiction that only has a thin thread of fact as background.

  44. Finns and Ronnie
    I reckon the US is headed for years of sub-optomal existence. Particularly if the Repubs get back into exerting their influence (along with their new Tebaggers rump).

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