Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,307 comments on “Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor”

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  1. Here’s one for those trying to stop rainforest logging – esp those up in The Cape who are trying to keep the miners & other destructive “developers” out: $5,000,000,000,000: The cost each year of vanishing rainforest British researchers set out the economic impact of species destruction – and their findings are changing world’s approach to global warming

    It’s an authoritative, well-researched, well-written and challenging article on an issue which, although Europeans are more involved in trying to halt Latin America’s destruction, also

    directly affects the vast Archipelago to the north of us; an area which, between flights over it in 1987 & 98, saw lush green jungle turn into a devastated wasteland of bare ground & felled timber – on a truly massive, gut-wrenching scale!

    [Groundbreaking new research by a former banker, Pavan Sukhdev, to place a price tag on the worldwide network of environmental assets has triggered an international race to halt the destruction of rainforests, wetlands and coral reefs.

    With experts warning that the battle to stem the loss of biodiversity is two decades behind the climate change agenda, the United Nations, the World Bank and ministers from almost every government insist no country can afford to believe it will be unaffected by the alarming rate at which species are disappearing. The Convention on Biological Diversity in Nagoya, Japan, later this month will shift from solely ecological concerns to a hard-headed assessment of the impact on global economic security.

    Who better to put a value on global biodiversity than an international banker with environmental credentials? Pavan Sukhdev, who spent much of his career working in international finance, was first approached by the EU Commission and Germany in March 2008 when he was with Deutsche Bank in India, and asked to measure the economic cost of the global loss of biodiversity …

    In his spare time he manages a model rainforest restoration and ecotourism project in Queensland, Australia, and farming in southern India.]

    I wonder if Julia & the Greens will invite him onto their Inquiry into the Wild Rivers legislation! The blo*dy-well should!

  2. India.

    [I wonder if Julia & the Greens will invite him onto their Inquiry into the Wild Rivers legislation! The blo*dy-well should!]

    Why not forward on to Senator Brown, but if i do that over the years i have rang as they get so many emails, good for them to know yours is on its way.

  3. Jon Faine really has a bee in his bonnet this morning about Afghanistan. He thinks that to know whether our troops should be there a politician has to visit there. He was quite aggressive towards Christine Milne about the Greens’ having decided their position without going there. Well, whether you need to visit depends on the reasons for your view. You are not likely to learn anything about whether it’s a “winnable” war long-term, for example.

    It’s obvious that the Greens are philosophically opposed to sending troops to far-flung places, even if they haven’t said so. They would learn nothing visiting there that would make any difference. I can only assume that Faine thinks that if you see first-hand what effect our troops are having in their particular area right now then that would necessarily have a big influence on your position. It’s hardly that simple.

  4. I found the discussion about Lyndon Johnson here interesting – I’ve only just ‘discovered’ him recently, mainly through reading a book on the Civil Rights movement (‘Pillar of Fire’ – a book which manages to make one of the most interesting topics ever incredibly boring).

    I can’t remember what his election winning margin was, but he had one of the greatest results in American electoral history.

    And, of course, he spoke that great line: “We must all love each other or we must all die” (wtte) which I find still brings a hush to a room when you use it in a speech.

  5. Boerwar
    Posted Sunday, October 3, 2010 at 8:34 pm | Permalink

    “Noel Pearson has the sort of achievements that I would not mind having under my belt:”

    http://www.capeyorkpartnerships.com/noel-pearson

    Peoples wanted aboriginees to be educatd and articulate to push Aboriginee views , and a long comes Noel Pearson educated and articulate ,

    but what peoples actualy want is only aboriginees to be educated and articulated
    who fully agree with Wild Rivers Laws

    Pearson is saying under Mabo , aboriginees got rites to develop there Mabo granted land which Mabo clearly trashs , WHEREAS other Aboriginees is hapy with Wild Rivers laws application , but they’d agree with his Mabo principal

    He is also Aboriginees know how to look after th Enviro better than Greenie whites a as they got history expertize

    This is reely a Q of Enviro mainly framed by whites VS Mabo native title rites , and Fed Govt Inquiry needs to find balance Julia and Jenny Macklin wuld not be having an Inquiry otherwise

    Next generation may be saying how paternalistic whites were over Wild
    Rivers IF North Qld aboriginees is STILL in poverty & bad health A High Court challenge then may be embarass

    http://johnbuttonprize.org.au/about-the-prize/media/post/noel-pearson-s-2010-john-button-oration-nights-when-i-dream-of-a-better-world-moving-from-the-centre-left-to-the-radical-centre-of-australian-politics/

    if one reads whole Pearson speech in its context , as th link descriptor says ‘centre
    left’ to ‘radical left’ , that is his philosophy , a brand new one which isn’t in fact

    IF he’d proper read Kevin Rudd’s “social democrat left” Labor philosophy speeech after GFC , Noel Pearson wuld realize he is in essence agreeing but using literal words in a context Menzies would turn over in grave over of big Govt linkage Think Pearson is pissed off Rudd did not over turn Wild Rivers immediately

    (Abbott motive rat cunning bastrd , is to drive a trojen horse between Enviro and Mabo , ultimately to severly weaken both’s credability (seeing he believes in NEITHER) Peoples need to be care they dont help Abbott i’ll await Inquiry evidence and detailed plans reviewed

  6. oh dear, Charlie has that “WTF I am doing here look” opening the CommGames. I would rather be in the tampon with Camilla.

  7. Oh why can’t we Aussies have papers like The Indie, esp The Indie on Sunday? Crawling back on the bed (after a gainormous “fill you up for the day” English breakfast) – nothing opens before 10.00am – if then, with a cuppa (“ethical”, “Rainforest alliance”) coffee & The Indie and Guardian’s hours of good reading .. why are we denied that?

    For all of us who lament the death of decent journalism, esp decent political journalism, this verbalises our frustrations at C21’s oh so very dumbed down media, esp political. This is not journalism as we know it

    [The front page story of David and Ed really does belong somewhere between Reality TV and 1970s-style Family Drama. Unlike the re-make of Bouquet of Barbed Wire … the re-make of The Brothers is appearing on all the news channels. The Real-Time Family Saga of the Milibands is What The Papers Say …

    In short, both journalism and politics are newly characterised by their lack of character.

    Can we blame political journalists for not getting a substantial, political story that isn’t there? Can we take against the Milibands (whichever) for being weightless, when there is no coherent body of ideas for either of them to gravitate to? Yes, we can, since lack of substance is something that each cohort – journalists and politicians – has chosen to accept rather than to challenge.

    But aside from their timorous response, in which, whether they know it or not, they are reinforcing the false idea that voters, readers, humanity itself, cannot brave any more than this, there is also another sense in which their emptiness is true to the reality we inhabit. In this sense they are the journalists and the politicians which our age deserves.]

    So, for those of you who pine for well-written, incisive, thought-provoking articles, bookmark

    [Throughout October and November, The Independent Online is partnering with the Battle of Ideas festival to present a series of guest blogs from festival speakers on the key questions of our time.

    Dr Andrew Calcutt is Principal Lecturer in Journalism at the University of East London, and Editor of Proof: reading journalism and society http://www.proof-reading.org. He is speaking in the debate Stop the press: journalism in jeopardy? at the Battle of Ideas festival in London on Sunday 31 October. An additional Battle Satellite debate on the state of journalism Read all about it: truth in demand is taking place on Tuesday 19 October at Central European University, Budapest.]

    Lots of good reading & ideas coming up, Bludgers.

  8. OZPOL – I heard him speak in Sydney. He owns a big chunk of rainforest up there (in the interests of preserving it).

    Sukhev’s first question on the committee would be, well, if you ruin the rainforests in cape york, what will the effect be on the rest of Queensland (particularly rainfall)? It could be quite catastrophic.

    ZOOMSTER – I saw a great doco on Johnston once where someone called him “the great tragic figure of American politics. No president ever achieved so much and fell so low.”

    Robert Dallek has published an abridgment of his two-volume life of Johnston which is pretty good.

    I can’t recommend Robert Caros 3 vols (to date) though unless you’re prepared to spend the rest of your life study Johnston. Must be about 3000 pages already.

    And the book I mentioned by Robert Mann on civil rights legislation is really good. In fact, it’s basically about Johnston as well.

  9. Corruption has always been the cancer in most of the developing countries. It is almost a way of life, part of the daily social, economic and political life. The grease that keeps the wheels going as they say. The trick has always been, how do you keep it under control and check to the point that it does not become a national/international shame and stop the wheels from turning.

    The latest Indian’s CommGames fiasco is where it has become the national/international shame and stopped the wheels turning. The Central Government should have stepped in long time ago.

    BTW: The Opening ceremony is really spectacular and welldone India. See, they can do it if they dont let the corruption gets in the way. Such as the Beijing Olympics, where the CCCP was determined it will get done efficiently and proudly and it was.

    [Inflation, corruption could impact China’s stability: Wen, By Jo Biddle (AFP) – 5 hours ago

    WASHINGTON — Corruption and inflation could have an “adverse impact” on stability in China, Premier Wen Jiabao warned Sunday, also acknowledging that the people’s thirst for democracy was “irresistible.”

    In a rare and wide-ranging interview with CNN, Wen touched on what until recently have been taboo subjects in Beijing and sought to brush aside international criticisms, insisting China’s communist leaders were adapting.]

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ikXItkAPiMgrYVuL9OC3O9lbLHAA?docId=CNG.649318c517e989a6cb277015a7fa72dd.f81

  10. Abbott’s “Michael” Johnson gaffe and David Johnson’s more tanks call are the sort of things an OL and an opposition leader would get crucified for. Yet Abbott’s opposition get away with them both. Damn our MSM

  13. [For all of us who lament the death of decent journalism, esp decent political journalism, this verbalises our frustrations at C21’s oh so very dumbed down media, esp political. This is not journalism as we know it]
    re the link.

    OZ Poll, i wondered what your thought of the remarks below. I could not get my head around them at all.

  14. Great line by Philip Coorey today. He spoke to some diggers in Afghanistan and they said that they didn’t need tanks. Said the Russians had tanks and they left plenty behind.

  16. Ah, Rosa All the way with LBJ as Harry Holt breathed, trying to outdo Menzies’ gushing I did but see her (QiiE) passing by; but I shall love her till I die at the top of Oz’s Most Chunderously Embarrassing Statements by a PM list.

    Quite accidentally, OH and I saw him on his 1967 visit, quite late in the evening. Police waved us off the road (we wondered what we’d done wrong) near Brown & Broad’s (Breakfast Creek Road, Newstead) and waited there a while – we had no idea why. I can’t remember much about it (Winn’s Coonawarra CabSav, then … wait for it … 95c per bottle!), only the dark car & his face & wave. Not even if LadyBird as in the car. He might have been going to a Newstead House supper function, or driving the long way back to GovHouse.

    In a way, LBJ and Malcolm Fraser are similar; a strangely conflicted mixture of Libertarian & Humanitarian on one hand, and aggressive hard right on the other.

    LBJ, a Southern Democrat, was a fascinating “accidental” president; a great civil rights supporter & the Great Society’s activist; inc, from memory the “Head Start” programmes for disadvantaged kids starting school & preschool – Sesame Street, one of its spin-offs, is one of his enduring memorials & one of which he’d be proud. It was new & our son was under 2 when he showed us words (in the papers) he’d learnt on SS. By 4, he was a fluent reader. After that, we bought him dictionaries & thesauri, and he taught himself (but we should have taught him phoenetics; he still pronounces some words oddly). Still has his head in a book. Mad about biographies. Never has had his head in any school/ text book though.

    But LBJ’s pursuit of the Vietnam War more than tipped the balance down. “Escalation” still raises my nape hairs, as does “de-escalation (which never seemed to be for real) excuses for bombing then non-combatant Laos & Cambodia still make my teeth clench in rage. If looks could have killed, he would have died on Brekkie Crk Road that night.

    Until I saw his face, my involvement in antiwar demos was ethical & ideological – Oz’s involvement in an illegal war, despite the Treaty we’d signed; killing young lads, esp conscripts; the destruction of a beautiful country. After I’d seen him, it was weirdly personal. I read every book & (academic) paper on it I could; argued various theses on why the USA was there (Horowitz v La Feber. All to the era’s rock music.

  17. OZPOL – Didn’t know LBJ could claim some credit for Sesame Street. Certainly can claim credit for their Medicaid program for over 65s (after which, no progress on that front for 45 years).

    I think Johnston always thought that if, somehow, he could sit down with Uncle Ho he could thrash out a solution the way he did in domestic politics. Just never got it.

    The war certainly tortured him. Towards the end of his life he even started dressing a bit like a hippie.

  18. SPUR 212 – As is my want, I’ll be focusing very closely tonight on what Four Corners (and the indies) do not tell us. I expect that it will, mostly, be an exercise in Kabuki theatre (which can be very revealing in itself)

  21. Rosa

    Abbott explodes at the journalist right at the moment Oakeshott is walking up behind them.

    I think it’s pretty clear, that it’s not Kabuki theater.

  22. SPUR212 – People miss their marks even in Kabuki.

    I’ll be very interested to know what they say about the prospects of getting into a coalition with the Nats and getting knifed in the back.

  24. SPUR212: I’m not being critical of the indies – I sense they are quite exceptional blokes. I’m just commenting on the limitations of the Four Corners form. How interesting it would have been if the camera had wandered into the room with Windsor and Tone.

  25. Ron

    I notice that despite you asserting that Gillard repeatedly said that a 5-25% ETS was “Labor policy” during the election, that you haven’t found a single quote to back it up and bring it into the world of reality.

    And it’s kind of funny that the written policy on the ALP website contradicts you as well.

  26. Re the footy, Sky main story is
    Collingwood player on sexual assault charge (no name mentioned)
    and
    Police deny tazering a St George fan who died

  29. [I notice that despite you asserting that Gillard repeatedly said that a 5-25% ETS was “Labor policy” during the election, that you haven’t found a single quote to back it up and bring it into the world of reality.]

    With any talk of “mandate” for a price on carbon, I always find it useful to refer back to the 2007 election.
    Labor + Coalition + Greens went to the election promising to introduce an ETS (i.e. parties backed by over 95% of voters).
    Labor put an ETS to parliament 3 times. The Coalition voted against it 3 times.
    I didn’t hear Mr. Abbott harping on about the “mandate” (or his ignoring of it) back then.
    So I plan to ignore anyone who whinges about a mandate (or lack therefor) now. It’s hypocritical and nonsensical.

  30. [ The word here in Melbourne is that there has been a police investigation re betting scandal, and this week household names in Rugby are going to get life bans.]

    That would be “household names in League”, victoria.

    Nothing gives away one’s origins faster than calling Rugby League “Rugby”.

    “Rugby” (ie Rugby Union) is the game with 15 players per side where large numbers pile on top of anyone who gets tackled and then try to basically kick the player (well, in theory, only the ball) backwards with their heels and sprigs, while said tacklee adopts a foetal position on the ground with his back to the enemy to try to stop them getting it. It also “line outs” (vaguely like an AFL throw in, but with a line of players from each side beside each other and the ball thrown in by the player from the team who didn’t kick it out). “Rugby” in Sydney is generally played by by the toffs, and those seeking to emulate them. Abbott used to play “Rugby”.

    “League” (Rugby League), on the other hand, is the equivalent game for the masses. Much more stop start. (They all take a rest after every single tackle, while the tacklee gets to heel the ball backwards without anybody at all trying to kick his teeth out). Only 13 players per side, scrums instead of line-ins.

    If you happen to be visiting Sydney and find that everyone around you is sniggering when you have been talking about sport and asks how long it is since you left Mexico, it almost certainly means that you have inadvertently said “Rugby” when you meant “League”. 😉

  34. Tonight’s panelists

    * Tariq Ali – British Pakistani author and political campaigner
    * Geoffrey Robertson – leading international lawyer
    * Lenore Skenazy – New York columnist
    * Ratih Hardjono – Indonesian journalist
    * Paul Kelly -Editor-at-large The Australian.

    So no Pollies on Q&A tonight
    http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/

  35. ROD – I think that “rugby” should hand out a few lifetime bans (for anything) just to spice up the game a bit and get some coverage. I note that today Paul Sheehan (I know, but I started reading before I knew what I was doing) called it a 19th century game in a 21st century media world.

  36. There is actually a lot of “wriggle room” for The Greens and Labor to come up with a compromise target carbon reduction figure.

    Labor always quoted a range, based on acceptance of such things things as ETS systems by others at the higher end. The 5% was always the number assuming no such action elsewhere. 15% and even 25% were mentioned assuming international activity.

    My bet is we end up with something that is lower than The Greens would like but significantly higher than the 5% “baseline” before this parliament is over.

  39. Paul Kelly is always worth listening to.

    I know a lot of people here don’t think much of him, but I rate The End of Certainty in the top 3 books on Australian politics.

  40. The Essential poll shows the Liberals and Independents are up 2 points and the Nationals and Greens are down 1 point on the primary vote.

    Interesting

  44. Diogenous

    abit embarass is you your bait yesterday resulted in me exposing 4 diff Greens polisys in 12 mths , starting with there non negotable 25% cut (being econamic iliterate)

    Caravan new fronteer paridym has moved on , leaving you behind , baiting breath

    Julia went to electon saying on TV that Labor CC polisy among MANY other CC actions) was a 5% ETS and her aim was to get consensus for it with review of tht outcome in 2012

    A 5% ETS giving 26% co2 cUTS from 2011 to 2020 , that Garnaut recomend , and that Prof Tim Flanery 2 days ago , again endorsed (as I postd yesterdays)

    No doubt there is written record of Julia’s above promise of a CPRS Labor polisy if i wasted time looking ,

    but irespective on a politcal site such as this , I doubt whether any savvvy Labor blogger wuld question th above seeing many would also seen her replys , except you & some uncloseted Green mates of yours

    Greg Combet repeated last week that Labors CPRS was BASE line start for negotions for new paridym CC Committee Which again makes your anti Labor nuanceslook lame

    But NO Green MP has challenged Greg Combet’s abov unqual CPRS comments , which means there is better ‘hug in’ happening and room for compromise by all to get an CC outcome , a sound outcome itself Combet said was more vip than process

  45. Makes a refreshing change, don’t you think!

    I’d like to see some of the backbenchers and newbies that young Roy boy for eg (he’s a cutie even if he’s a LNP 😉 )
    They could have a rising stars edition maybe

  47. Ron

    [Julia went to electon saying on TV that Labor CC polisy among MANY other CC actions) was a 5% ETS and her aim was to get consensus for it with review of tht outcome in 2012]

    No she didn’t . The Labor website refutes that and you can’t find a quote of it either.

    You are lying. Or living in your own little fantasy world.

  48. [No doubt there is written record of Julia’s above promise of a CPRS Labor polisy if i wasted time looking , ]

    No there isn’t. You can’t find it because it doesn’t exist. No-one here except you thinks it exists and everyone knows it wasn’t Labor policy. The Citizens Assembly was.

    You are the only person who believes what you are saying. Either that or you are lying.

  49. Diogenous

    you seem abit up tit

    I heard Julia say 5% ETS CPRS was Labor polisy

    Other times I heard her say Labors CPRS IS Labor polisy , which is same thing anyway

    why you so upset when caravan moved on , and even greg combet saifd Labors CPRS was base line for new CC Committee , you feel dis enfanchanized

  50. [Rod Hagen
    Posted Monday, October 4, 2010 at 1:10 pm | Permalink
    So no Pollies on Q&A tonight

    Makes a refreshing change, don’t you think!]

    exactly what my Oh and I said, perhaps they may realise we are over them
    well the libs any way and well we need consolidation now and no gotcha moment.

    i have noticed that the tasmanian accord with the greens is only just starting to go some where re policy i think the idea was to just let every one get use to the fact and then have policy and ideas.

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